Essential Research leadership ratings

Essential’s latest leadership ratings find Scott Morrison continuing to struggle, despite being back to level pegging on preferred prime minister.

The Guardian reports on yet another fortnightly Essential Research poll with no voting intention numbers, but we does at least get the monthly leadership ratings. These show Scott Morrison down a point on approval to 39% and steady on disapproval at 52%, after the previous poll respectively had him down five and up nine. Anthony Albanese is respectively down two to 41% and up one to 31%, and he has lost his 39-36 lead as preferred prime minister, with the two now tied on 36%. The BludgerTrack trends on the sidebar have now been updated with these results.

Further questions on bushfire recovery, sports rorts and coronavirus don’t seem to have turned up anything too mindblowing, but the publication of the full report may turn up something hopefully later today.

UPDATE: Full report here. The most interesting of the supplementary findings for mine relate to the budget surplus, the consistent theme of which is that respondents aren’t that fussed about it: 79% agree spending on bushfire recovery is more important than maintaining it, with 11% disagreeing; 65% say it would be understandable if the coronavirus impact meant it wasn’t achieved, with 18% disagreeing; and 57% agree it was wrong for the government to discuss the surplus in the present tense before the election, with 24% disagreeing.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,911 comments on “Essential Research leadership ratings”

  1. I’m wondering if Albo is using the current Cray Cray weather that has been happening in his state of NSW, to be firm about not supporting new coal fired stations.

  2. and the fact it hasn’t happened should tell it is unlikely to.

    As Fran Kelly pushed….wtte then why can’t you just say Labor will not allow it?

    A perfectly reasonable question with an easy unequivocal answer – No.

  3. “ So no direct answer then just reiterating Shorten’s pre-election double-speak.”

    You are just pissy that he had a go at magical horsies, ‘lil Green Pony.

  4. If Bloomberg does win the nomination (very outside chance), right here Bernie ensures his supporters will not vote for him, they’ll either stay home or simply vote for some Green/independent candidate. Bernie has the party held hostage, the sooner he disappears the better.

    With Presidential candidate Mike Bloomberg having cracked double digits in many national polls, new 2020 frontrunner Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) is going after the former New York mayor in an apparent effort to thwart his momentum prior to his unorthodox late entry into the race on Super Tuesday.

    Speaking with Dean Obeidallah on SiriusXM’s Progress channel, the Vermont senator ripped Bloomberg for his unprecedented ad spending — which has already climbed into nine figures.

    “He’s part of the problem,” Sanders said. “Look, Bloomberg, anybody else in America has the right to run for president. But I think, in a democracy, you do not have the right to buy the presidency.”

    https://www.mediaite.com/election-2020/bernie-sanders-torches-bloomberg-accuses-him-of-trying-to-buy-the-presidency/

  5. Strong rebuke for Hedley Thomas – SMH headline

    [Witnesses who spoke to ‘Teacher’s Pet’ journalist dropped from court hearing

    Witnesses who spoke to journalist Hedley Thomas have been scrapped from hearings over concerns of contaminated evidence]

  6. lefty_E @ #48 Tuesday, February 11th, 2020 – 9:19 am

    Stop listening to the worthless garbage coming out of LNP politicians’ corrupt traps and understand the numbers:

    ‘With all subsidies taken out, solar PV and wind wipe the floor with gas, coal and nuclear. Levelised cost of solar and wind is about $50 per megawatt hour, half that of gas and coal’s $100 per megawatt hour even without a carbon price. Nuclear is way off the money, priced anywhere between $250 and $330 per megawatt hour.’

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/coalition-wilfully-blind-to-economics-of-renewables-20200209-p53z4m.html

    lefty,
    As I have laboriously tried to point out to those who have put up copious arguments against Nuclear, the point for Labor is to have an alternative policy on Nuclear, one which they can use to argue with the Coalition. One that is a safer and less expensive alternative. This doesn’t also mean that they automatically put Nuclear front and centre, as a result. Labor put storage and renewables front and centre. As always.

  7. Last night, a motion put forward by Larissa Waters – that the House of Representatives bring about a vote on the Greens National Integrity Commission Bill – passed the Senate:

    (1) That the Senate notes that:

    (a) the Senate passed the Australian Greens’ National Integrity Commission Bill 2018 (No. 2) on 9 September 2019 to establish a federal corruption watchdog with broad remit to investigate allegations of corruption and misconduct, and to ensure strong, independent oversight of the actions of parliamentarians; and
    (b) public consultation on the Commonwealth Integrity Commission model proposed by the Government ended more than one year ago, but the Government has yet to introduce legislation to establish an integrity commission,

    (2) That the Senate calls on the Federal Government to bring on the Australian Greens’ National Integrity Commission Bill 2019 in the House of Representatives for a vote in the February 2020 sittings.

    (3) That this resolution be sent to the House of Representatives for concurrence.

    That should hit the house around midday.

    And it’s the first opportunity Llew O’Brien will have to cross the floor. One of his big bugbears has been the government’s proposed national integrity commission not being strong enough.

    Let the games begin

  8. The funny thing is: so many people bag the LNP for defying laws and custom and giving money where they want without going through lawful/proper channels.

    Yet they want Labor (who is not in power) to commit to stop Adani, by do exactly what they despise the LNP for.

    Labor keeps saying “the market will decide” knowing that the current market will not take on a new coal-fired power station and the price will soon drop out of the coal market … making it suddenly NOT the most important export. And they know Adani is likely to be scaled right down from it’s original prospectus if it goes beyond the ground-breaking at all.

    While the LNP is trying desperately to save the fortunes of the Clives and Ginas of their world – Labor knows coal really going to die a death internationally.

    The member for Hunter is valiantly trying to project the idea that Labor will protect their jobs but I am sure he also knows the lie of the land — and what Labor really needs to do is give them alternatives to look forward to.

    If I was in the Labor think tank, I’d be working hard to Show realistic alternatives for transition that will not only ensure current jobs but demonstrate jobs growth associated with alternative power generation and mining.

  9. Some of us predicted this from the outset.

    Tom Nichols@RadioFreeTom
    ·
    4h
    I think Bernie has made clear that if he’s not the nominee, he’s going to torch the party, no matter who the nominee is. That’s why I think we’re in for another popular vote/ electoral vote loss.

  10. “No means no”. It’s really not that hard to say, but then again, it seems it is for Labor.

    I think we all know why – Queensland – the state apparently wagging the tail of the Coalition, likewise Labor.

  11. Confessions @ #63 Tuesday, February 11th, 2020 – 9:33 am

    Some of us predicted this from the outset.

    Tom Nichols@RadioFreeTom
    ·
    4h
    I think Bernie has made clear that if he’s not the nominee, he’s going to torch the party, no matter who the nominee is. That’s why I think we’re in for another popular vote/ electoral vote loss.

    ‘Sore Loser’ Sanders.

  12. sprocket_says:
    Tuesday, February 11, 2020 at 9:11 am

    You have not seen a ‘train wreck’ interview until you have read this one…
    ——————————————

    The Greens are being consistent. In the 1980s they opposed wind farms in Victoria. Only Labor has always supported action on climate change.

  13. Yesterday, in response to an article that referred to a happening as a “once in a hundred year event”, I posed the question as show below — (What’s the new —-) and got an answer.

    Jaeger @ #1109 Monday, February 10th, 2020 – 8:14 pm

    What’s the new “Once In 100 Years” benchmark ❓

    [USGS] PubTalk 11/2019 — Sea-Level Rise, Extreme Water Levels, and Coastal Erosion…How bad could it be?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6szg_co6fxE

    Ask a silly question. Well now, mes amis, the answer is prolly “weekly” in the not so distant future.

    Sean Vitousek’s information is sobering (even for those heavily into the Creaming Soda) and should be force read to politicians everywhere.

    http://www.smh.com.au › Environment › Weather
    Sydney storm: erosion swallows 50 metres of Collaroy …
    Jun 7, 2016 – “The storm is certainly starting to abate, but there are still very large waves, and still a large tide, which are continuing to cause damage along …

    http://www.theguardian.com › australia-news › feb › sydney-weather-collar…
    Sydney weather: Collaroy and Narrabeen beach erosion as …
    17 hours ago – Up to 25 metres of beach at Collaroy and Narrabeen has been swept away by huge waves generated by the east coast low that brought a deluge to Sydney at the weekend. The storm weather brought “abnormally high tides” and strong winds and the city’s heaviest rainfall in up to two decades, the Bureau of Meteorology said.

    Mr. Trump’s efforts to stop disaster ( ❓ ) by building a wall is misguided in that the walls should be coastal with pumping arrangements powered by renewable energy. The jobs of the future would include the extremely desirable “plumber”.

    A couple of stills from the talk —

    As for North Queensland – Beautiful one day, flooded the next and washed away completely eventually, and in the meanwhile blithe spirits that we are, we meander merrily along arguing about who has the keys to the Mercedes or BMW (more likely to be driven by Arseholes according to a recent article.

    Should I be so foolish in the future as to pose another question – please – no answers – the answer to this one will do me for now.

    Toodles. ☮☕

  14. I think this is pretty clear.

    Albanese: You may as well ask me, Fran, if I support unicorns.

    Q: : This is important. Because do you have a position on this?

    Albanese: Fran, we have a position which is that it does not stack up. It will not proceed. It doesn’t stack up. No private sector operator, Fran, right now, there is nothing to stop a private sector operator establishing a coal-fired power station.

    Q; I understand. But why can’t you say that a Labor Government would not allow any new coal-fired power stations to be built? Why can’t you say that?

    Albanese: Well, because it’s not happening, Fran. It won’t happen. We do know that, Fran, we do know that because it’s reality. It’s like saying, ‘do you know if the sun will come up this morning’.

  15. C@tmomma:

    Trump actually would get his landslide win if he was running against Bernie Sanders.

    Forget being a (retired?) pharmacist, c@t, your true calling was really as a political clairvoyant, given your prediction of a Morrison win in 2019… contrary to nearly all of the polling data.

  16. Senator Murray Watt @MurrayWatt
    ·
    6m
    The Government ignored warnings that it needed more water bombing aircraft before the bushfires. But ask them about it and they launch a political attack. Why can’t they just be honest with people?

    Skynews

    A Question from Senator Murray Watt has ended with Linda Reynolds declaring the opposition should be ashamed of itself for politicising the bushfire crisis.

    The Queensland Labor senator had been asking the defence minister why the government ignored advice from former fire commissioners and National Aerial Firefighting Centre on boosting Australia’s aerial firefighting fleet.

    Senator Reynolds rejected the premise of the question and told Mr Watt the question was “beneath” him.

    “It is utterly disgraceful that you are linking the lives of people to the support this federal government … have provided,” she said.

    On a point of order, Senator Penny Wong accused the government frontbencher of “feigned outrage”.

    Ms Reynolds ended her time at the dispatch box yelling “shame on you” to the opposition, for using its time to politicise the bushfire crisis.

  17. Sinn Féin declares victory in Irish general election

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/10/sinn-fein-declares-victory-irish-general-election

    Sinn Féin has declared victory in Ireland’s general election and called for talks with other main parties to form a coalition government.

    Its leader, Mary Lou McDonald, urged Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil to start negotiations with the republican party as the scale of its breakthrough confirmed a realignment of Irish politics.

    Sinn Féin won 24.5% of the first-preference vote in Saturday’s election, almost doubling its share from 2016 after harnessing voter anger at homelessness, soaring rents and fraying public services.

    Fine Gael slid to 20.9% and the main opposition party, Fianna Fáil, slipped to 22.2%, widely perceived as punishment for having propped up Varadkar’s minority administration in a confidence and supply deal.

    The Greens, independents and small leftwing parties accounted for the rest. Turnout was 62.9%, down from 65.2% in the 2016 election.

    The fragmented results will produce a hung parliament with no party close to 80 seats – the number for a majority and stable government in the 160-seat chamber, which includes a speaker.
    :::
    McDonald told RTE her preference was to form a government without either of the two formerly biggest parties but that she would speak to Varadkar and Martin because “that’s what grownups do”.

  18. Me Newbie

    I predicted a coalition win and I can say confidently if that Sanders gets the nomination, his loss will resemble the Corbyn loss in the UK, which I also predicted.
    Unlike guytaur who was spruiking Corbyn and when I suggested another person to lead the party if they were going to even have half a chance, it was shot down by him.
    I havent forgotten all the bullshit posts by him.
    His posts on Sanders are in the same league.
    Ultimately useless and wrong.

  19. Pretty sure once Bloomberg actually gets on a debate stage and has his record challenged instead of his ice cream eating ability, you’ll stop seeing this rise in the polls.

  20. Bernard Keane – Steggall’s climate bill shows a bright idea rising from the ashes

    https://www.crikey.com.au/2020/02/10/zali-steggall-climate-bill/

    Crossbenchers want to get rid of the biggest hurdle to effective climate policy in Australia: politicians. But to do that, they need to go much further.

    Independent MP Zali Steggall’s climate change bill, launched this morning in Canberra, seeks to remove the primary impediment to serious climate action in Australia: major party politicians.

  21. Final seat results coming through in Ireland
    Very Likely 160 seats Majority 80
    Fianna Fáil 38
    Sinn Féin 37
    Fine Gael 35
    Green 12
    Labour 6
    Social Democrats 6
    People before Profits 5
    Aountú 1
    Other 1
    Independents 19

    Making a stable government out of these results will be fascinating but will require 2 of the big 3.

  22. Independent MP Zali Steggall’s climate change bill, launched this morning in Canberra, seeks to remove the primary impediment to serious climate action in Australia: major party politicians.

    Fucking moronic statement

  23. Victoria

    You lie again.

    I did not spruik Corbyn against the polling.

    I made the same mistake as many here that Corbyn should have been a Remainer. I did think that fence sitting was a mistake.

  24. Conf
    “Plenty of commentators, electoral strategists and former campaign managers have said similar.”

    Yeah, Bernie is dead meat. I don’t care what the Bernie-or-Bust folks say. Running as a self-styled socialist in the United States, Bernie is on a hiding to nowhere.

  25. Victoria @ #80 Tuesday, February 11th, 2020 – 9:48 am

    Me Newbie

    I predicted a coalition win and I can say confidently if that Sanders gets the nomination, his loss will resemble the Corbyn loss in the UK, which I also predicted.
    Unlike guytaur who was spruiking Corbyn and when I suggested another person to lead the party if they were going to even have half a chance, it was shot down by him.
    I havent forgotten all the bullshit posts by him.
    His posts on Sanders are in the same league.
    Ultimately useless and wrong.

    The posts of a Sanders’ cultist expressing their blind devotion.

  26. Kakuru @ #90 Tuesday, February 11th, 2020 – 9:57 am

    Conf
    “Plenty of commentators, electoral strategists and former campaign managers have said similar.”

    Yeah, Bernie is dead meat. I don’t care what the Bernie-or-Bust folks say. Running as a self-styled socialist in the United States, Bernie is on a hiding to nowhere.

    Yep.

    And this is just one of the many, many memes that are already out there. They’ll get a shot of steroids if Sanders actually becomes the nominee.

  27. Guytaur
    Every candidate is doing what Bloomberg is doing except he is using his own money. Bernie often boosts about his fundraising efforts.

  28. Kakuru @ #91 Tuesday, February 11th, 2020 – 6:57 am

    Conf
    “Plenty of commentators, electoral strategists and former campaign managers have said similar.”

    Yeah, Bernie is dead meat. I don’t care what the Bernie-or-Bust folks say. Running as a self-styled socialist in the United States, Bernie is on a hiding to nowhere.

    The shame is that the DNC are trying to win an election, whereas the Bernie Bots just want to push a movement.

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