Essential Research leadership ratings

Essential’s latest leadership ratings find Scott Morrison continuing to struggle, despite being back to level pegging on preferred prime minister.

The Guardian reports on yet another fortnightly Essential Research poll with no voting intention numbers, but we does at least get the monthly leadership ratings. These show Scott Morrison down a point on approval to 39% and steady on disapproval at 52%, after the previous poll respectively had him down five and up nine. Anthony Albanese is respectively down two to 41% and up one to 31%, and he has lost his 39-36 lead as preferred prime minister, with the two now tied on 36%. The BludgerTrack trends on the sidebar have now been updated with these results.

Further questions on bushfire recovery, sports rorts and coronavirus don’t seem to have turned up anything too mindblowing, but the publication of the full report may turn up something hopefully later today.

UPDATE: Full report here. The most interesting of the supplementary findings for mine relate to the budget surplus, the consistent theme of which is that respondents aren’t that fussed about it: 79% agree spending on bushfire recovery is more important than maintaining it, with 11% disagreeing; 65% say it would be understandable if the coronavirus impact meant it wasn’t achieved, with 18% disagreeing; and 57% agree it was wrong for the government to discuss the surplus in the present tense before the election, with 24% disagreeing.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,911 comments on “Essential Research leadership ratings”

  1. Too many predict outcomes on the basis of their own desires. Sometimes it is understandable given polling … but sometimes it’s just pie-in-the-sky

  2. guytaur
    “Yeah it’s such a mistake that Sanders is most likely to win the nomination.”

    Non sequitur. He could win the nomination, but lose the election. He could do both quite convincingly.

  3. Victoria @ #99 Tuesday, February 11th, 2020 – 7:05 am

    Anyhoo what would be really funny is that if Trump leaves before the election and Romney is the GOP nominee.

    There’d surely be no contest. I can imagine all those conservative-leaning independents and disaffected Republicans who are flirting with voting Democrat to get rid of Trump would be safe to vote Republican again.

  4. Victoria

    It’s called making the case for winning an election. There is such progressive hate on this site someone has to point out some facts.

    Like it or not. American voters in rural middle America have made A Democratic Socialist the most likely to win the Democratic nomination.

    Universal Healthcare and a decent Minimum wage and being for unions is popular with a lot of those voters.

    We shall see if that’s enough to win against Trump.

  5. Bill Clinton said it best in 1992, its the economy stupid because at the moment that is what puts Trump ahead. The Democrats face an uphill battle as long as the economy is doing okay.

    Guytaur
    Most of those voters are already in the Democrat camp.

  6. This is tough.

    Paul Karp

    @Paul_Karp
    #breaking on a 4-3 split the High Court has decided that Aboriginal Australians are not aliens for purpose of constitution. Major hurdle to deportation and huge development of law. Still need a further hearing to establish if one plaintiff is Aboriginal though.

  7. There seem to be plenty here viewing the Democratic primaries through the new 4K UltraHD crystal ball. I’ve tried Harvey Norman and JB HiFi but can’t track one down. Any ideas?

  8. Mexican

    Of course. That’s how you win the Democratic Nomination.

    We don’t know who will win against Trump. We are all making guesses.

    I just think the comments here against Sanders are way over the top with no evidence to back it up.

  9. EVERY TIME THE BERNSTER MENTIONS A FREE GOVERNMENT PROGRAM CHUG SOMEBODY ELSE’S BEER!

    And this is just one of the many, many memes that are already out there. They’ll get a shot of steroids if Sanders actually becomes the nominee.

    Well, good on Sanders for pushing back against these memes. For too long they have gone unchallenged or weakly challenged. Blessed are the meek, but they get run over by the trucks of the aggressive and powerful.

  10. guytaur @ #104 Tuesday, February 11th, 2020 – 10:09 am

    Victoria

    It’s called making the case for winning an election. There is such progressive hate on this site someone has to point out some facts.

    Like it or not. American voters in rural middle America have made A Democratic Socialist the most likely to win the Democratic nomination.

    Universal Healthcare and a decent Minimum wage and being for unions is popular with a lot of those voters.

    We shall see if that’s enough to win against Trump.

    Haters gonna hate.

  11. Guytaur

    Bernie Sanders will not win any general election. In fact, if he were the nominee it would be one of the biggest losses ever.
    Anyhoo there is a lot to play out in the next few months.
    I am still hoping Trump does not even contest the election as more information is disclosed with respect to his treasonous conduct with either Russia Turkey or Saudia Arabia.
    Just to name a few.

  12. Look out, everyone. “Creeping environmentalism” is ruining the country, according to Canavan. As if only country people “live in the environment”.

    Well, look, it’s mainly, it’s these well financed environmental organisations – there is this creeping environmentalism coming over our society, and we all want to balance the environment, but some of the restrictions and regulations placed on on people on the land, who actually live in the environment, make no sense, and that’s what needs to be pulled back on,” Canavan says, because apparently people who care about the environment do not live in the environment, or something.

  13. There seem to be plenty here viewing the Democratic primaries through the new 4K UltraHD crystal ball. I’ve tried Harvey Norman and JB HiFi but can’t track one down. Any ideas?

    I have been looking at this one…

  14. America is NOT a progressive place.

    Neither is Australia.

    Fear mongering from the more conservative forces in both places is very effective.

    Trouble is, conservatives are permitted to fear monger — it is seen as a legitimate electoral tactic for them. However, the centre-left and left parties are not permitted such a luxury — media deems it illegitimate.

  15. Guardian

    Bracks has told the staff that to win government from opposition, ‘you have to let people know where you stand’. That has raised a few eyebrows, because so far, under Anthony Albanese’s leadership, ministers and MPs have been told to keep their positions fairly close to their chest. Albanese wants the focus on the government, not the opposition, after the release of Labor’s policies early in the last term put the spotlight on what Labor would do, rather than what the government was doing.

    But with a new year, shadow ministers are starting to get itchy to announce policy positions – something I understand won’t be happening for a little while longer.

    Bracks has also told the group to keep reminding people Albanese is “genuine”. Looks like those focus groups are getting interesting.

  16. Victoria @ #112 Tuesday, February 11th, 2020 – 10:14 am

    Guytaur

    Bernie Sanders will not win any general election. In fact, if he were the nominee it would be one of the biggest losses ever.
    Anyhoo there is a lot to play out in the next few months.
    I am still hoping Trump does not even contest the election as more information is disclosed with respect to his treasonous conduct with either Russia Turkey or Saudia Arabia.
    Just to name a few.

    Do you not ever just stop and think just for a second how ignorant you seem when you make claims that are, on any possible analysis, absolutely impossible to verify.

  17. Victoria

    So you assert.

    I think you are wrong.
    I think Bloomberg on the debate stage is a gift to Sanders.

    The thing that Sanders has going for him is his record. The opposite of Clinton’s elite view.
    Trump laid the groundwork for a socialist being a viable alternative.

    That’s why that leaked audio shows he fears Sanders as a candidate.
    Not something you can say of Biden. Trump was ready for Biden.

    Sanders campaigning against a Billionaire is Trumps worst nightmare.
    It proves Sanders is the “Drain The Swamp” candidate.

  18. Canavan portraying himself as the hero of the poor, victimized and down trodden mining industry- up against the well funded environmentalists is vomit inducing.

  19. C@tmomma @ #47 Tuesday, February 11th, 2020 – 8:17 am

    All of the above.

    Exactly. 🙂

    It’s about time Labor positioned itself as the party of climate action and stuck the boots into coal.

    The “unicorn” remark though, and the awkward clarifications that followed it, was a deflection. An unnecessary one, too. “No, Labor does not support new coal projects” would be so much more clear than “new coal projects aren’t happening” followed by “right now, there is nothing to stop a private sector operator establishing a coal-fired power station”.

    The possibility that anyone with the cash could spin up a new coal project is why you need to have an actual position on whether or not you’d support it.

  20. Doug Cameron
    @DougCameron51
    ·
    7m
    Another reminder of what could have been. A Labor government would have subsidised the construction of 250,000 eco friendly, affordable social housing for low and middle income tenants. Construction jobs, a home, and economically responsible. Sigh!!!

  21. Simon Katich @ #119 Tuesday, February 11th, 2020 – 10:22 am

    Look, I dont think Sanders should be the Dem nominee.
    But everyone knows he is a socialists… yet he consistently polls well above Trump.

    1. Because Sanders would be the best thing ever to happen to Trump in 2020.

    2. Because the Trumpies are in the phase of building Sanders up so he can trounce the other Dem candidates (which he isn’t doing anyway), only to knock him down at a time of their choosing later on.

  22. Simon Katich @ #120 Tuesday, February 11th, 2020 – 7:22 am

    Look, I dont think Sanders should be the Dem nominee.
    But everyone knows he is a socialists… yet he consistently polls well above Trump.

    I don’t think that’s true. I’ve seen both national polls and polls in those key 15 states that will decide the election that show him either marginally leading Trump, level pegging with Trump, or trailing Trump.

  23. What is it with some here that would be self-proclaimed ‘progressives’ on the home front but, when they cast an eye overseas, become ultra-conservatives? All this inconsistency is making me dizzy.

  24. I recall that elevating Trump in the 2016 primary was part of Clinton’s ‘pied-piper’ strategy which backfired. Trump’s 2020 success might come down to how many voters are feeling the benefits of the supposedly strong economy. The worst thing the Dems could do is allow voters to think their nominee won the primary through shifty means. There’ll be enough of a fight overcoming gerrymandering, disenfranchisement, incumbency etc.

  25. Victoria:

    I predicted a coalition win and I can say confidently if that Sanders gets the nomination, his loss will resemble the Corbyn loss in the UK, which I also predicted.

    “Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.”

    Nobody *knows* what’s going to happen if X candidate gets the nomination. Anyone who proclaims they do is merely puffing.

    But, if we take your post at face value, I’d love to see your posts from 2018/early 2019 predicting a Coalition victory at the 2019 Federal election.

  26. a r,
    To your point, I honestly believe that the Labor Party position is evolving, as they say in politics in 2020.

    I do think it is well to keep in mind that Albanese was the guy who steered over 300 pieces of legislation through the House during the Gillard Minority Government. He also now has the guy who steered the SSM Plebiscite ‘Yes’ case to victory, Tim Gartrell, as his Chief of Staff.

    So I think they are more than alive to well-crafted timing wrt the issues.

  27. ‘Pegasus says:
    Tuesday, February 11, 2020 at 9:50 am

    Bernard Keane – Steggall’s climate bill shows a bright idea rising from the ashes

    https://www.crikey.com.au/2020/02/10/zali-steggall-climate-bill/

    Crossbenchers want to get rid of the biggest hurdle to effective climate policy in Australia: politicians. But to do that, they need to go much further.

    Independent MP Zali Steggall’s climate change bill, launched this morning in Canberra, seeks to remove the primary impediment to serious climate action in Australia: major party politicians.”

    Keane just reminding me why I stopped my Crikey sub. The Greens’ totalitarian anti-democratic instinct flows deep in his little heart.

    I can understand why a Greens Party with just one House MP and a couple of powerless cross benchers wants to get rid of democracy.

    The arrogance of these peeps thinking that they are going to run government is breathtaking.

    Albo is right. If you want serious national action on climate change you are going to have to vote Labor.

    If you want to drag it out, keep voting for the Liberals, Nationals and Greens.

  28. Very wisely, Albo avoided the Greenware. The dream gig for any journo would be to be able to throw a bucket of Green sludge on Albo. The moment that happens we could write off Albo’s political credibility and Labor’s chances at the next election.

  29. ‘Bracks has told the staff that to win government from opposition, ‘you have to let people know where you stand’. That has raised a few eyebrows, because so far, under Anthony Albanese’s leadership, ministers and MPs have been told to keep their positions fairly close to their chest.’

    And having been a candidate and policy writer during that campaign, apart from a general opposition to Kennett, policies were developed exactly in the way Albo is developing them – we had a year of review, a year of policy testing – including running potential policies past State Conference – and then a gradual release of policies leading up to the election.

    Remember, Bracks only assumed the leadership once this process was well advanced. (I remember discussions around whether it was too late for a change).

    Nothing Albo is doing is inconsistent with anything Bracks did.

    It would only raise eyebrows if you were either unfamiliar with Labor’s modus operandi or you wanted to pretend you weren’t for the sake of creating a little drama.

  30. Mr Newbie @ #137 Tuesday, February 11th, 2020 – 10:40 am

    Victoria:

    I predicted a coalition win and I can say confidently if that Sanders gets the nomination, his loss will resemble the Corbyn loss in the UK, which I also predicted.

    “Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.”

    Nobody *knows* what’s going to happen if X candidate gets the nomination. Anyone who proclaims they do is merely puffing.

    But, if we take your post at face value, I’d love to see your posts from 2018/early 2019 predicting a Coalition victory at the 2019 Federal election.

    Correction, Victoria knows.

  31. Bellwether @ #133 Tuesday, February 11th, 2020 – 10:36 am

    What is it with some here that would be self-proclaimed ‘progressives’ on the home front but, when they cast an eye overseas, become ultra-conservatives? All this inconsistency is making me dizzy.

    I want the Progressive side of politics to win against Trump. Sanders is not the person, no matter how Progressive he may be, that can be the Democratic nomineee that can do that.

  32. shellbell

    The fact that it takes 7 whitefellas and a 3/4 decision to not alienate some blackfellas is ‘interesting’ to say the least!

    It gives a whole new meaning to that thoughtful phrase, ‘Fuck off back where you came from!’

  33. Mr Newbie @ #137 Tuesday, February 11th, 2020 – 10:40 am

    Victoria:

    I predicted a coalition win and I can say confidently if that Sanders gets the nomination, his loss will resemble the Corbyn loss in the UK, which I also predicted.

    “Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.”

    Nobody *knows* what’s going to happen if X candidate gets the nomination. Anyone who proclaims they do is merely puffing.

    But, if we take your post at face value, I’d love to see your posts from 2018/early 2019 predicting a Coalition victory at the 2019 Federal election.

    I seem to remember only Nath predicted the outcome.

  34. Bellweather:

    What is it with some here that would be self-proclaimed ‘progressives’ on the home front but, when they cast an eye overseas, become ultra-conservatives?

    I think it’s because they’re ultra-conservatives – who are maybe a *smidgeon* to the ‘left’ of Coalition-voting reactionaries – masquerading as ‘progressives’.

    There seems to a be a gaggle of those types here, and they all post day-in, day-out. The quality of the blog suffers as a result.

    I guess they’re deluded enough to think that anyone pays attention to their pearls of wisdom repeated ad nauseum. If they post the same nonsense for the 841st time, it may just change one vote. Or something.

  35. Bonza

    Yes.

    Exactly why Trump was busy tweeting about Iowa being against Sanders.

    It’s the best argument for Sanders winning. Even Trump confirms he is not part of the “elite”.

    With that and regular Democrats voting for Sanders I can see him winning.

  36. C@tmomma @ #143 Tuesday, February 11th, 2020 – 10:43 am

    Bellwether @ #133 Tuesday, February 11th, 2020 – 10:36 am

    What is it with some here that would be self-proclaimed ‘progressives’ on the home front but, when they cast an eye overseas, become ultra-conservatives? All this inconsistency is making me dizzy.

    I want the Progressive side of politics to win against Trump. Sanders is not the person, no matter how Progressive he may be, that can be the Democratic nomineee that can do that.

    Free country, anyone can express an opinion I guess. 🙁

  37. Bonza @ #135 Tuesday, February 11th, 2020 – 10:39 am

    I recall that elevating Trump in the 2016 primary was part of Clinton’s ‘pied-piper’ strategy which backfired. Trump’s 2020 success might come down to how many voters are feeling the benefits of the supposedly strong economy. The worst thing the Dems could do is allow voters to think their nominee won the primary through shifty means. There’ll be enough of a fight overcoming gerrymandering, disenfranchisement, incumbency etc.

    Bonza,
    I found this article about Trump’s so-called American economic miracle, enlightening:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/were-hurting-in-new-hampshires-poorest-city-few-signs-of-trumps-blue-collar-boom/2020/02/09/7021ad6c-49ec-11ea-9475-535736e48788_story.html

    BERLIN, N.H. — If you are looking for evidence of President Trump’s “great American comeback,” this working-class city in the heart of New Hampshire’s rugged and remote North Country seems to have much to offer.

    The unemployment rate, which was touching double digits 10 years ago as Berlin weathered the collapse of its signature mill, is down to 3 percent. The local paper is stuffed with help-wanted ads. Property values are climbing as newcomers move in.

    But Berlin — which thrived through most of the 20th century before the bottom fell out in the early 2000s — hardly feels like a city on the mend.

    More than a decade into the longest economic expansion America has ever known, residents say just about the only jobs available pay minimum wage with no benefits as out-of-pocket health-care costs surge. The last elementary school shuttered last year, capping a long-term exodus of young families. The once-bustling downtown is so scarred by closures, demolitions and fires that it looks, according to the city’s mayor, “like a bomb was dropped in the middle of it.”

    “We’re hurting, there’s no question,” said Paul Labrecque, one of the many here who lost his middle-class wage and benefits when the paper mill went bust. “We’ve got no businesses, nothing to attract people. There aren’t the kind of jobs here that can sustain a family.”

    Sounds a lot like the Coalition are trying to make Australia look = people fearful of holding on to their jobs vote for the security of the party of their masters, who hold their destiny in their hands.

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