Newspoll has turned in a result for its three-weekly federal poll which, if nothing else, shows it’s not letting the May election result prevent it from publishing optimistic-looking numbers for Labor. As related in The Australian ($), the latest poll has the major parties tied on two-party preferred, after four successive results of 51-49 in favour of the Coalition.
The Coalition is down two on the primary vote to 40%, with Labor up two to 35%, the Greens down one to 12% and One Nation up one to 7%. Anthony Albanese enjoys some encouraging movement on personal ratings, with approval up five to 42% and disapproval down seven to 37%. However, Scott Morrison’s ratings are little changed, with approval down one to 46% and disapproval down two to 43%, and his lead as preferred prime minister narrows only marginally, from 47-32 to 46-32.
The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1682.
Looking at that graph that BK has supplied today about wages growth, or the lack thereof, you know what gives me the pip? That when wages growth was robust, it gave the citizens of this nation the feeling that they could blame every little blip in the economic forecasts, when they went down slightly in any way, on the ‘poor economic management’ of the Labor federal government. Even though we were going through the GFC! Because citizens were still in jobs and still getting healthy pay rises and in their cups, they felt arrogant and secure enough, and were encouraged by mendacious Coalition MPs like Abbott, Hockey and Robb, to blast the paint off Labor.
Ungrateful sods.
Andrew_Earlwood,
So, does that mean it has to come off the government’s precious projected Surplus or not? 🙂
Andrew_Earlwood @ #1799 Thursday, November 14th, 2019 – 7:24 am
I smell another real estate bubble on the rise.
Morning all
Much appreciation HK for today’s reports.
Good Morning
I see the blame the Greens is back in full swing due to one tweet from a former Minister
Even for him there is the fact the Greens voted for Labor’s Carbon Price energy package. A successful package. Arguing about the water under the bridge of the CPRS is what if fantasy stuff. It ignores the LNP entirely and the fact that even a watered down NEG was not able to go through the party room.
The LNP even toppled a Prime Minister rather than have any legislation to combat rising emissions.
Be in absolutely no doubt its not the Greens being pure and the enemy of the good. Its the LNP that is willing to lose power rather than see sensible considered legislation passed.
GG
I have posted quite a few articles on that subject and can’t recall the one that fits your description. Most likely it would have been in The Conversation where many learned contributions can be found.
GG
My older daughter since coming back from studying overseas, has been looking for ppty in our part of the woods.
Apart from not much stock in the first home range, the prices have jumped at least 60 to 80 grand in past six months.
Sigh…..
BK @ #1806 Thursday, November 14th, 2019 – 7:31 am
It was earlier in the week. You listed the aspects of a bushfire and how they might connect to climate change.
Cheers.
I smell another real estate bubble on the rise.
Which puts things right where the Coalition wants them to be.
I posted this on the UK election thread, but I think that it is worth sharing here as well.
Is Batman the bad guy?
https://youtu.be/C5-8HIWscfY
‘ the fact the Greens voted for Labor’s Carbon Price energy package. A successful package’
It was a successful package in every way bar the one that counts in a democracy: it was a political failure. From the very date of announcement (and not because as you say Labor didn’t defend it or promote it).
The arse fell out of the plurality of the Labor + Greens vote from the very first opinion poll after its announcement and things only got worse until Rudd 2.0. Even then the final election result reflects both the primaries and 2pP of the first Newspoll after the carbon pricing deal was announced (at a time when there was no Labor Leadershit happening).
Victoria @ #1807 Thursday, November 14th, 2019 – 7:32 am
Mostly, since the Election. Prices did drop around 10-12% up until then. But, they seem to have recovered of late.
The big thing holding up prices atm is there are not enough properties on the market. So, competition is fierce. I’d say the regions (Ballarat, Bendigo, Geelong) are the best value atm and will likely boom in the next period of time.
“Sound like a bunch of reckless environmental vandals to me.”
***
Morning, Cat!
Adani. Yay or nay?
with respect to the fires etc., I was listening to late night radio mmm last night.
The host was indignant about the person who made the statement about domestic violence and fighting the fires. He then went on a tirade that it was Greens infested councils that has stopped controlled burning over past seven years.
I dont listen to much of this program as it starts at midnight, but I have pegged him as a liberal luvvie, cos he has plenty of time to have a go about the Victorian and Queensland govt, and yet I haven’t heard anything negative with respect to the NSW govt which is in fact where the host resides.
I switched off after this tirade, so I didnt hear talkback callers responses. But are people in NSW blaming the Greens?
AE
Its not the Greens fault Labor lost the election.
Thats entirely down to Labor.
Denying the reality of the deniers in the LNP and scapegoating the Green’s because the LNP are the wreckers of sensible policy is a major Labor fault.
All this bunch of bloody morons need is a lyre each and lessons from Nero –
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/as-fires-rage-coalition-at-loggerheads-over-hazard-reduction-20191113-p53ada.html
GG
Agreed. There is hardly any stock. My daughter wants to live in local area.
She is not wanting to live out of Melbourne.
Now that she has finished her masters, told her that once she has job in her field, her income will definitely manage a bigger mortgage.
We shall see what the new year brings.
GG
Another thing is that our area is going to be disrupted over the next few years with construction of northeast link. It may put a dampener on prices in the short term. Of course, in the longer term it will actually be a positive for house prices.
‘ Its not the Greens fault Labor lost the election.
Thats entirely down to Labor.’
I’ve never disputed that Guytaur. The Adani effect in Queensland simply sits on top of the other numerous fault lines in Labor’s campaign and the fact that ScoMo had managed to lull a sufficient slice of voters into a Menzies-Howard torpor where there seemed to be little appetite for change on the ground after the Turnbull-Abbott shitshow had seemingly ended.
That said, the ramifications of the Adani effect are ongoing. Labor is in a precarious situation in Queensland. Very little of their collapsed vote has gone to the greens. The state has lurched (even more) hard right and without securing at least 40% of the Queensland seats, Labor (or a green labor plurality) is unlikely to ever form a government again.
AE
Every time you blame the Greens for the LNP not passing Labor legislation you are blaming the wrong party.
The Greens have had reasonable negotiating positions throughout. The passing of the Carbon Price was the proof of that and blaming the Greens ever since took away any argument that its the Greens being the pure and impotent.
Its all the LNP deniers willing to go to the lengths of toppling a Prime Minister and running unprecedented campaigns of lying about facts that has been the enemy of energy policy in this country not the Greens.
Every time you blame the Greens you are giving excuses for the appalling LNP behaviour.
All on the basis of what if the legislation had more time to work. Well in that hypothetical Labor would have won the election and we would not have had Prime Minister Abbott
“I must say, however, that these attacks on the Greens over hazard reduction are completely ridiculous and made out of sheer ignorance of the facts.”
***
Thanks for being honest and fair 🙂
Someone mentioned it the other day on here that the response from climate deniers to this bushfire disaster has been similar to how the NRA reacts after a mass shooting in the US. They just double down, stick their heads in the sand and blame everyone else. Oh and of course they pull the old “how dare you talk about the causes now while the tragedy is still unfolding” etc…
Oh, sorry Guytaur I thought you were referring to the 2019 election. I think you meant 2013?
Again I agree. Gillard should never have done a deal with the greens that was so brazenly inconsistent with the position she took to the 2010 election. Despite its policy merits. Gillard already had a credibility problem – largely because of the audacious stupidity of rolling a still popular first term PM in the dead of night, but also some policy brain farts that had already unravelled by the time she did the carbon pricing deal (East Timor solution anyone?) and the that deal was the final nail in her coffin. And that of the Government’s future prospects.
Today’s impeachment testimony summed up:
Victoria @ #1814 Thursday, November 14th, 2019 – 7:40 am
The average punter with no exposure to factual informed commentary will blame ‘greenies’. It’s a black and white issue for them.
“Craig Emerson
@DrCraigEmerson
·
6h
Greens vow to block ETS in Senate. Remember this?”
***
https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2019/11/13/trump-impeachment-trade-ukraine-military-aid-for-biden-smear-column/2575150001/
AE
Only because Labor is seen as weak on the environment. Precisely because Rudd bottled it and then Gillard with her citizens assembly.
If Labor had gone hard on the environment and energy policy to begin with then the carbon price would have survived.
Yet today we have Labor doing it again . Going soft on the environment and saying now is not the time to talk about the climate. Look at the cartoons that tells you what the public sentiment is. Its precisely the time to talk about the environment.
I know the environment is not the core political messaging of politics but thats the fault of politics and media coverage. Labor can shift the Overton window with this tragedy and go strong on the environment and permanently damage the deniers ability to prosecute their case to the voting public.
That should be Labor’s priority at the moment because the truth is without massive credibility defeat of the LNP deniers energy policy in this country and Labor’s ability to win elections will continue to be stuffed
‘ All on the basis of what if the legislation had more time to work. Well in that hypothetical Labor would have won the election and we would not have had Prime Minister Abbott’
Bingo. You see there were two political flaws in the carbon pricing scheme. Firstly it didn’t even start until 2012 and then it started with the bang folk over the head fixed price (the dreaded carbon tax) which, in retrospect was set very high, too high politically; and secondly the lead time to the floating price was set at 3 years.
So the scare campaign, between announcement and final implementation could have run and run and run until the second half of 2015, when the floating price was due to commence. That’s not just one full election cycle but two. Madness. Sheer madness.
I regret that Penny and Bill didn’t abandon Julia in March 2013. If they had, then Rudd may have been in a position to ‘terminate’ the carbon tax (ie. the fixed price) in the May budget to have the floating price start in July before the election. That might have even worked politically. It certainly would have made it more difficult for Abbott to repeal with the new senate in July 2014 because I think labor could well have secured another senator in each of SA and WA at the 2013 election if the “carbon tax” (ie. the fixed price) was already terminated.
Alas.
ps. I am now waiting for Rex to chime in about Rudd and Abbott being on a unity ticket to ‘axe the tax’, as he has brazenly done before on this blog; which is an obvious lie because only one of them had a policy to replace the fixed price with an ETS.
Fess
From what I have gleaned, hearing went exactly as expected.
Meanwhile i dont feel that Trump is all that concerned with impeachment hearing.
He figures he has the backing of the GOP in the Senate, who are happy to continue muddying the waters on his behalf.
Having said that, I expect more stuff to be exposed about Trump which may not necessarily relate to the Ukraine aspect of the scandal. I am thinking it may actually shock the public even more so.
Watch this space.
BK @ #1787 Thursday, November 14th, 2019 – 3:39 am
K-A-C-H-I-N-G!!!!!!
Where do I sign up? There’s absolutely nothing that could go wrong with that.
‘ If Labor had gone hard on the environment and energy policy to begin with then the carbon price would have survived.’
Absolutely not. Then fundamental fault lines with voters in the outer burbs and regions were as palpable in 2010-13 as they are now.
One has to go slowly slowly with these good folk. Going hard on the environment is a vote killer. It repels them.
This is a political blog, not a moral one. One has to be pragmatic, even as one holds one’s nose. Compromise, building consensus etc is uncomfortable at times.
Regrettably labor has lost the art.
The Greens (and you) deny its even necessary. Neither care about the serious business of winning a majority of votes in a majority of seats. Because each of you think that the people who live in about 1/3 of the total electorate divisions and who decide elections are verboten scum. Well the verboten scum sure showed you a lesson didn’t they. Unfortunately they are punishing labor for your hardline purity stances.
AE
Even by your own telling its Labor’s fault not that of the Greens.
You forget with more time the carbon price would have proven itself and the scare campaign would not have worked.
The point is going to the election the deniers were always going to do the scare campaign. None of us that were not deniers were ready for it. We were not ready for the levels of insanity required for Abbott to win. I don’t know about the Greens. They could have known and operated on the basis you could not expect sanity from the deniers so there was just no reason to accomodate them with legislation.
You must always keep in mind that zeal that saw the LNP willing to throw away government to win on their ideology of it must be coal.
Thats the extreme insane policy not the Greens not Labor. The LNP are to blame no one else.
Vic:
I doubt we’ll hear anything explosive. If there was such detail, either further extrapolating Trump’s extortion, or facts that support whatever defence he’s running, we’d have heard it by now.
AE
Your absolutely not is why Labor keeps being seen as weak on the environment.
That keeps losing Labor elections.
The 2019 election is proof of this. Mr Shorten did not plan for no approval for Adani and thus got wedged. All Labor’s doing.
Fess
Agree to disagree
Alpheus Williams
@AlphWilliams
‘$29 Billion in subsidies in Australia…while they cut bushfire mg, National Parks, Health, NDIS, etc. Wake TF up Australia. Corruption and IPA Rule.
Global fossil fuel subsidies reach $5.2 trillion, and $29 billion in Australia.’
https://reneweconomy.com.au/global-fossil-fuel-subsidies-reach-5-2-trillion-and-29-billion-in-australia-91592/
Professor Matthews article overlooks that the High Court is not specifically constrained in the way it deals with cases before it.
The facts are not out of bounds for its analysis nor does the lack of any important principle operate as a barrier to it quashing the conviction.
It can simply, if it chooses to, adopt the views of the dissenting judge.
Instead of calling it a “surplus”, why don’t we call it what it actually is or will be, the “Coalition parties’ publicly-funded re-election fighting fund”. We all pay a bit more tax than necessary over a 3 year term. Come election time, if we are in a favoured demographic, we get some of it back – provided the Government is re-elected. That was John Howard’s modus operandi.
@BreakfastNews tweets
“We have tried since April to get a meeting with the Prime Minister. It’s clear now we won’t get that meeting.”
– Greg Mullins https://twitter.com/BreakfastNews/status/1194722968305197056
“ Even by your own telling its Labor’s fault not that of the Greens.”
That’s always been my point. Labor has agency and must take responsibility for its actions. Labor must make it clear it is not a proxity for Greens policies in Queensland , the outer burbs and the regions. That is essential. If that means losing skin in the inner burbs from folk you call them base’ then that is collateral damage that labor must endure, at least for the time being.
Focusing its message predominantly on jobs and incomes is a good start. Not being wedged on pathetic totem issues like Adani is another (FFS how many times does one have to make the factually true point that the Carmichael mine project will not make one tonne of burnt coal and CO2 emissions of difference either way, because Modi has guaranteed that the Adani coal fired power stations in India will come on line regardless of where the coal is sourced from).
Swinging voters will change their vote from conservative to progressive if the progressives sell a message or hope. Not wealth redistribution or environmentalism. Labor needs to get back into the hope game.
AE
You are deliberately ignoring the message again.
Its Labor’s fault for not being real on the environment. Thats not the Greens fault. Thats Labor’s fault.
And typical response by these defensive do-nothings, “I’m not aware of the comments” “I haven’t read it” and the obvious lie “I don’t follow social media”.
I don’t think we can expect much light to shine on the NDIS if Robert is speaking at NPC today. He’s another Simon Birmingham.
‘ That keeps losing Labor elections.’
If labor keeps losing elections because it is weak on the environment, please explain why the Greens – who you see as being strong on the environment – don’t win the marginal seats that labor is failing in? Surely if the environment was such a vote winner then the greens would be smashing it in middle ring seats like Chisholm, Banks, Reid and even outer rim seats like Lindsay, La Trobe, Petrie, Longman, Forde and Dixon.
Please explain why the Greens primary vote in such seats is often less than their national and/or state average?
If being strong on the environment is such an election winner and labor is so weak in this area why are the greens stuck between 8-12% of the National vote, election after election.
Why would an 8 foot Wookiee go to live on the moon of Endor with 2 foot Ewoks?
This makes no sense.
Danama Papers
Just pop a generous donation in to your local Nats MP and Bob’s ya uncle.
Why is Tingle puffing up Morrison’s description? It’s a Liberal label. We know he wants to quiet anyone who protests about the actions of his government.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-14/quiet-australians-judge-scott-morrison-government-six-months-on/11700088
Victoria
says:
Thursday, November 14, 2019 at 7:47 am
GG
Another thing is that our area is going to be disrupted over the next few years with construction of northeast link. It may put a dampener on prices in the short term. Of course, in the longer term it will actually be a positive for house prices.
________________________
you think so? I believe it is a disaster for some of the nicest suburbs in Melbourne. That interchange at Bulleen will be ghastly, and the parkland taken irreplaceable. It will put an enormous number of trucks from the northern industrial areas into the eastern suburbs. Maybe it was necessary, Idk. Perhaps Option C was too expensive. But for the life of me I cannot see any positives for locals out of this. Except for perhaps a quicker drive to the airport?
“ Its Labor’s fault for not being real on the environment. Thats not the Greens fault. Thats Labor’s fault.”
I can see how ‘being real’ on the environment might lift labor’s vote in the inner burbs. Possibly, but I’m sure the greens would claim credit for that and the actual voting patterns wouldn’t change much.
But.
Please attend to why, if strong environmental policies are shit hot politically and would lead the way to election victories the ‘strong environmental party’ is doing so awfully bad in the seats that actually matter to whether or not the progressive plurality (labor plus greens) can form a government?
nath
Agree with you.
😮
Fireworks over the Harbour Bridge last night.
Gladys has lost it.
nath
I’m not in Bulleen.