Autopsy turvy

Amid a generally predictable set of recriminations and recommendations, some points of genuine psephological interest emerge from Labor’s election post-mortem.

The public release of Craig Emerson and Jay Weatherill’s report into Labor’s federal election campaign has inspired a run of commentary about the way ahead for the party after its third successive defeat, to which nothing need be added here. From the perspective of this website, the following details are of specific interest:

• Labor’s own efforts to use area-based regression modelling to identify demographic characteristics associated with swings against Labor identifies five problem areas: voters aged 25-34 in outer urban or regional areas; Christians; coal mining communities; Chinese Australians; and the state of Queensland. The variable that best explained swings in favour of Labor was higher education. However, as has been discussed here previously, this sort of analysis is prey to the ecological fallacy. On this basis, I am particularly dubious about the report’s suggestion that Labor did not lose votes from beneficiaries of franking credits and negative gearing, based on the fact that affluent areas swung to Labor. There is perhaps more to the corresponding assertion that the Liberals were able to persuade low-income non-beneficiaries that Labor’s policies would “crash the economy and risk their jobs”.

• Among Labor’s campaign research tools was a multi-level regression and post-stratification analysis, such as YouGov used with notable success to predict seat outcomes at the 2017 election in the UK. Presumably the results were less spectacular on this occasion, as the report says it is “arguable that this simply added another data point to a messy picture”. The tracking polling conducted for Labor by YouGov showed a favourable swing of between 0.5% and 1.5% for most of the campaign, and finally proved about three points off the mark. YouGov suggested to Labor the problem may have been in its use of respondents’ reported vote at the 2016 election as a weighting factor, but the error was in line with that of the published polling, which to the best of my knowledge isn’t typically weighted for past vote in Australia.

• An analysis of Clive Palmer’s advertising found that 40% was expressly anti-Labor in the hectic final week, compared with only 10% in the earlier part of the campaign. The report notes that the Palmer onslaught caused Labor’s “share of voice” out of the sum of all campaign advertising fell from around 40% in 2016 to 25%, and fell as low as 10% in “some regional markets such as Townsville and Rockhampton”, which respectively delivered disastrous results for Labor in the seats of Herbert and Capricornia.

• It is noted that the gap between Labor’s House and Senate votes, which has progressively swollen from 1% to 4.6% since 1990, is most pronounced in areas where Labor is particularly strong.

Other news:

• The challenge against the election results in Chisholm and Kooyong has been heard in the Federal Court this week. The highlight of proceedings has been an admission from Simon Frost, acting director of the Liberal Party in Victoria at the time of the election, that the polling booth advertising at the centre of the dispute was “intended to convey the impression” that they were Australian Electoral Commission signage. The Australian Electoral Commission has weighed in against the challenge with surprising vehemence, telling the court that voters clearly understood that anything importuning for a particular party would not be its own work.

• The ABC reports there is a move in the Tasmanian Liberal Party to drop Eric Abetz from his accustomed position at the top of the Senate ticket at the next election to make way for rising youngester Jonathan Duniam. The Liberals won four seats at the 2016 double dissolution, which initially resulted in six-year terms being granted to Eric Abetz and Stephen Parry, and three-year terms to Duniam and David Bushby. However, the recount that followed the dual disqualifications of Jacqui Lambie and Stephen Parry in November 2017 resulted in the party gaining three rather than two six-year terms, leaving one each for Abetz, Duniam and Bushby. Bushby resigned in January and was replaced by his sister, Wendy Askew, who appears likely only to secure third place on the ticket, which has not been a winning proposition for the Liberals at a half-Senate election since 2004.

Andrew Clennell of The Australian ($) reports that Jim Molan is likely to win a Liberal preselection vote on Saturday to fill Arthur Sinodinos’s New South Wales Senate vacancy. The decisive factor would appear to be support from Scott Morrison and centre right faction powerbroker Alex Hawke, overcoming lingering hostility towards Molan over his campaign to win re-election by exhorting Liberal supporters to vote for him below the line, in defiance of a party ticket that had placed him in the unwinnable fourth position. He is nonetheless facing determined opposition from Richard Shields, Woollahra deputy mayor and Insurance Council of Australia executive, who was runner-up to Dave Sharma in the party’s hotly contested preselection for Wentworth last year.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,909 comments on “Autopsy turvy”

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  1. RIsays:
    Sunday, November 10, 2019 at 9:44 pm

    The opponents of Adani have yet to show how an embargo on the project will change the trajectory of coal consumption in the world. This is what matters.

    But it would make them feel good.

  2. RI @ #1890 Sunday, November 10th, 2019 – 8:44 pm

    The opponents of Adani have yet to show how an embargo on the project will change the trajectory of coal consumption in the world. This is what matters.

    Australia can only control Australia’s contribution. If that coal stays in the ground, then Australia hasn’t contributed to the burning of it. If enough other countries take note of what we’re doing and adopt comparable policies then possibly it won’t be burnt at all.

    Clean hands matter. Leading by example matters. Taking a step in the right direction matters, even when one step alone won’t reach the destination.

    Have you got an actual reason for supporting the mine, aside from the fact that the Greens oppose it and the (unsubstantiated) fear that Labor will be savaged at the ballot box if they oppose it too?


  3. RI says:
    Sunday, November 10, 2019 at 10:02 pm
    ….
    As a result, India’s renewable energy installs have more than doubled to 12-15 GW annually, while thermal power installs (net of closures) have dropped 80% to just 4 GW annually vs the 20 GW annual installs evidenced in 2012/13-2015/16

    That is just it; people like P1 are stuck in the past and drag out old data; old being about last year.

    Adani is now little more than a political stunt, all that is left is for it to be approved and Adani to run away. That is the best thing that could happen as it may force few to face up to the fact that coal is finished and we are in the transition. Without adani approval the bullshit will drag on forever.

    The unkown in all this is where the Greens will go for their next anti labor wedge. In my view one thing is for sure, they went to far this time.

  4. John Birmingham
    @JohnBirmingham

    ‘The Deputy PM’s climate change comments seem a bit bonkers until you remember he does not lead a party representing the interests of rural voters. Instead he runs a protection racket for very large, tax-avoiding multinational mining corporations. More tomorrow.’

  5. Considering the combustion of NSW now occurring, I think it’s highly relevant to point out once again that the political strategy adopted by the Greens has been rewarded with the election of LNP governments in NSW and at the Federal level.

    The Greens are co-authors of this climate-change-related disaster.

    This has to be said. There is no time like the present.

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