The public release of Craig Emerson and Jay Weatherill’s report into Labor’s federal election campaign has inspired a run of commentary about the way ahead for the party after its third successive defeat, to which nothing need be added here. From the perspective of this website, the following details are of specific interest:
• Labor’s own efforts to use area-based regression modelling to identify demographic characteristics associated with swings against Labor identifies five problem areas: voters aged 25-34 in outer urban or regional areas; Christians; coal mining communities; Chinese Australians; and the state of Queensland. The variable that best explained swings in favour of Labor was higher education. However, as has been discussed here previously, this sort of analysis is prey to the ecological fallacy. On this basis, I am particularly dubious about the report’s suggestion that Labor did not lose votes from beneficiaries of franking credits and negative gearing, based on the fact that affluent areas swung to Labor. There is perhaps more to the corresponding assertion that the Liberals were able to persuade low-income non-beneficiaries that Labor’s policies would “crash the economy and risk their jobs”.
• Among Labor’s campaign research tools was a multi-level regression and post-stratification analysis, such as YouGov used with notable success to predict seat outcomes at the 2017 election in the UK. Presumably the results were less spectacular on this occasion, as the report says it is “arguable that this simply added another data point to a messy picture”. The tracking polling conducted for Labor by YouGov showed a favourable swing of between 0.5% and 1.5% for most of the campaign, and finally proved about three points off the mark. YouGov suggested to Labor the problem may have been in its use of respondents’ reported vote at the 2016 election as a weighting factor, but the error was in line with that of the published polling, which to the best of my knowledge isn’t typically weighted for past vote in Australia.
• An analysis of Clive Palmer’s advertising found that 40% was expressly anti-Labor in the hectic final week, compared with only 10% in the earlier part of the campaign. The report notes that the Palmer onslaught caused Labor’s “share of voice” out of the sum of all campaign advertising fell from around 40% in 2016 to 25%, and fell as low as 10% in “some regional markets such as Townsville and Rockhampton”, which respectively delivered disastrous results for Labor in the seats of Herbert and Capricornia.
• It is noted that the gap between Labor’s House and Senate votes, which has progressively swollen from 1% to 4.6% since 1990, is most pronounced in areas where Labor is particularly strong.
Other news:
• The challenge against the election results in Chisholm and Kooyong has been heard in the Federal Court this week. The highlight of proceedings has been an admission from Simon Frost, acting director of the Liberal Party in Victoria at the time of the election, that the polling booth advertising at the centre of the dispute was “intended to convey the impression” that they were Australian Electoral Commission signage. The Australian Electoral Commission has weighed in against the challenge with surprising vehemence, telling the court that voters clearly understood that anything importuning for a particular party would not be its own work.
• The ABC reports there is a move in the Tasmanian Liberal Party to drop Eric Abetz from his accustomed position at the top of the Senate ticket at the next election to make way for rising youngester Jonathan Duniam. The Liberals won four seats at the 2016 double dissolution, which initially resulted in six-year terms being granted to Eric Abetz and Stephen Parry, and three-year terms to Duniam and David Bushby. However, the recount that followed the dual disqualifications of Jacqui Lambie and Stephen Parry in November 2017 resulted in the party gaining three rather than two six-year terms, leaving one each for Abetz, Duniam and Bushby. Bushby resigned in January and was replaced by his sister, Wendy Askew, who appears likely only to secure third place on the ticket, which has not been a winning proposition for the Liberals at a half-Senate election since 2004.
• Andrew Clennell of The Australian ($) reports that Jim Molan is likely to win a Liberal preselection vote on Saturday to fill Arthur Sinodinos’s New South Wales Senate vacancy. The decisive factor would appear to be support from Scott Morrison and centre right faction powerbroker Alex Hawke, overcoming lingering hostility towards Molan over his campaign to win re-election by exhorting Liberal supporters to vote for him below the line, in defiance of a party ticket that had placed him in the unwinnable fourth position. He is nonetheless facing determined opposition from Richard Shields, Woollahra deputy mayor and Insurance Council of Australia executive, who was runner-up to Dave Sharma in the party’s hotly contested preselection for Wentworth last year.
“Former Prime Minister Tony Abbott has described his government as “remarkably underappreciated” during a tribute dinner to mark the end of his 25 years in politics.”
Let this be a lesson to all the bludgers who just didn’t appreciate the mad monk for the loving caring person that he truly is!! Must be true, Dutton said so.
These people missed their calling in life – they could been up there with Bob Hope, Abbot and Costello!!!
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-08/tony-abbott-tells-dinner-his-government-was-underapreciated/11683510
Isn’t it funny how language evolves over time, and words which once meant one thing morph into meaning something else. Gay is probably the most famous of these words.
Thanks to Mr Abbott, the word “underappreciated” now means the same as the old words hated, loathed and despised.
ABC Newsradio has summarised all analysis this morning in its headline. No need for more opinion: it was a “scathing review”. So much for Emerson and Weatherill’s attempt to be factual yet tactful!
Worth reading the whole article so that Labor supporters can become more depressed. It was Facebook wot won it.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-08/topham-guerins-boomer-meme-industrial-complex/11682116
NSW Health authorities are investigating reports of mass nausea and vomiting following a dinner in Sydney last night. The victims – who didn’t attend the dinner – reported being overcome by a stench of hubris, corruption and decay.
Lizzie, I think your 6:39 am post nailed it.
Labor campaign strategists need to take note.
Maude Lynne
I’m sure they will. 🙂
In the great state of NSW we have a Liberal Police Minister by the name of David Elliot – he of the ‘strip search my daughters’ comment. That is not the only stupid thing he has done recently…
NSW Police Minister David Elliot has denied grabbing a teenage P-plater’s arm during a heated argument on a Sydney road, but admits telling the teenager he “worked for the cops”.
Mr Elliot says the 17-year-old male driver clipped his car and drove off on Windsor Road, Baulkam Hills, on October 17.
The teen’s father has told The Australian the minister chased his son through the Castle Hill backstreets before grabbing his arm, which Mr Elliot strongly denies.
“I spoke to him through the passenger’s side. No one touched anyone,” Mr Elliot told the newspaper.
However, he did admit that he “blew up” when the youth refused to exchange contact details and swore at his wife.
“He claimed he didn’t have to so I said I work for the cops,” Mr Elliott said. “He didn’t believe me so I gave him my business card. He said ‘show me your badge’. I said ‘I pay for the badges, I don’t get one’.”
The boy’s father said when his son phoned him during the verbal altercation he could hear a man “yelling and screaming” in the background.
“I think in this day and age when road rage is quite high-profile, it is poor form by someone in that position to be (behaving like that),” the father told the newspaper.
“You have got no right to invade someone’s personal space.”
https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/news/i-work-for-the-cops-nsw-police-minister-admits-road-rage-spat-with-pplater/news-story/8d020929522965250f6b20eb02d82be0
sprocket_
says:
“He claimed he didn’t have to so I said I work for the cops,” Mr Elliott said. “He didn’t believe me so I gave him my business card. He said ‘show me your badge’. I said ‘I pay for the badges, I don’t get one’.”
___________________________
Another classic episode in the history of NSW police ministers.
In order to defeat the Morrison government, Labor needs to embrace the sort of policies Doug Cameron is arguing for, which both Bernie Sanders, Jeremy Corbyn and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez argue as well. Also, there needs to be democratization of the party (as Mark Butler argues for), which would allow ordinary members much more power on making decisions in the party, while at the same time removing the influence of trade union bosses.
These strategies would allow Labor’s membership numbers to grow dramatically from 50,000 to at least 175,000, that would provide an army to actively campaign and hustle for the party in the general community. Because this army would be able to counter any disinformation campaigns. Incidentally, this mass grassroots approach I describe, was the reason why the Yes side won a very convincing victory during the Same Sex Marriage plebiscite.
Anthony Albanese knows this sort of mass grassroots engagement is needed, however the agenda that he is arguing for is not going to attract the numbers of people who would join such a grassroots engagement campaign.
Also, I can see why Labor would not win an election, if it went down this path. Because in Britain you have the first past the post electoral system, in America you have gerrymandering and voter suppression. In Australia we have compulsory preferential voting, along with not having gerrymandering and voter suppression.
How to counter social media propaganda when it is reduced to an art form and backed by big dollars. …
Could the Facebook phenomenon be the only reason why Labor lost? Why Brexit won? Why Trump won?
If so, are we on the precipice of a new dark ages?
Tristo
The irony is that the LNP, with fewer volunteers, no real policies and an almost unknowable leader, won the election by the use of Facebook,engineered by merely two social media manipulators.
Tristo,
No.
Can I say, as someone who used facebook memes to attack Abbott and Hockey mercilessly after the Horror 2014 Budget as an Administrator for the March in March, and so was privy to the engagement data, meme by meme, that it works magnificently well and it saddened and frustrated me that Labor, who has so many tech savvy people in its ranks, didn’t go toe to toe with the Coalition in the facebook space.
Albanese the media’s puppet , set to continue to appease the media by talking about the 2019 federal election which has been over for close to 6 months .
Labor cannot continue with this appeasement route , Labor members must wake up, and take the decision getting rid of Albanese as Labor party leader before the upcoming federal election ,which will likely to happen earlier than ost people expect it to.
I don’t think so Tristo. The SSM plebiscite was a single issue proposition, which could be reduced to a couple of points: love and fairness.
SSM had 70% community support before the plebiscite. No election is won with 70% support – the starting and finishing positions are always within a spread of about 45-55%.
Despite the best efforts of the church conservatives 70% of the population had accepted SSM. Unlike say changing the economic structure of the country because of the introduction of an ETS or Carbon tax as part of a 30 year transition, SSM largely didn’t affect people negatively – it was about recognising a personal choice in a private relationship: with 70% support going into the plebiscite there was no way a fear campaign was going to get sufficient traction.
The hallway of centre left parties, especially reformist parties, is a basic respect for evidence and facts. This hamstrings them in the propaganda war: hate, fear, greed are fair more accessible emotions and responses than rational thinking. As the saying goes a lie is half way round the world before truth gets out of bed. In the case of social media the propaganda works by ‘hit and run’, and this – combined with blocking means that the lie wins even when the truth finally gets mobilised.
We are doomed.
Labor’s bullbars for bush battlers campaign will do the trick next election.
C@t
That is truly sad.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
David Crowe writes that a damning review has warned Labor of a lasting threat to its fortunes if it does not halt the desertion of key voters, including younger Australians, and scale back its “cluttered policy agenda”.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-can-t-become-a-grievance-focused-organisation-election-review-20191107-p538gl.html
Rob Harris looks at the part of the review that goes to Shorten’s unpopularity.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-review-finds-shorten-s-unpopularity-hurt-party-s-election-bid-tax-policies-didn-t-20191107-p538bo.html
Shane Wright opines that Bill Shorten had gone so close to an unlikely victory in 2016 that issues that should have been addressed – such as his unpopularity as leader or how the party continued to struggle with voters in Queensland – were shunted aside.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-s-loss-had-its-roots-in-near-win-of-2016-20191107-p538ds.html
Sam Maiden explains that Australia’s most trusted election oracle, Newspoll, had a “persistent technical error” which may have falsely built expectations that Labor was the unbackable favourite to win the May election.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2019/11/07/labor-bill-shorten-newspoll/
In the wake of the release of the post mortem Michelle Grattan says there is plenty of work to be done by Labor.
https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-labors-post-mortem-leaves-the-hard-work-still-to-be-done-126596
Katharine Murphy simply says that Labor’s election review reads like a disaster movie – with a few clues for the stunned survivors.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/nov/07/labors-election-review-reads-like-a-disaster-movie-with-a-few-clues-for-the-stunned-survivors
On the day Labor released its autopsy into the shock May election loss, Pauk Keating warned inequality would continue to grow in Australia unless Labor stepped up to address it.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/keating-urges-labor-to-remain-ambitious-amid-election-autopsy-20191107-p538ig.html
Michael Koziol reports on the gala dinner for Abbott. Read it if you must.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/liberals-gather-en-masse-to-honour-tony-abbott-s-25-years-in-politics-20191107-p538ad.html
In this searching contribution David Crowe says, “Morrison now sets a course that looks utterly inconsistent with his convictions on other fronts. He believes so strongly in freedom of speech on religion that he seeks new laws to protect the faithful. With every step he triggers another question about his selective convictions.”
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/liberties-for-the-chosen-ones-what-and-who-do-morrison-s-liberals-stand-for-20191107-p5389j.html
And the SMH editorial says that Morrison’s threat to outlaw certain forms of protest by environmentalists against coal and gas mining companies might be good short-term politics but it would be a dangerous move for Australian democracy.
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/loud-environmental-protests-are-a-great-australian-tradition-20191107-p538gu.html
The PM is worried that activists are targeting the economy. He would be better leaving companies to fight those battles says Phil Coorey.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/banning-boycotts-will-do-business-no-favours-at-all-20191106-p53833
It is impossible for consumers to achieve the maximum advertised speeds of their NBN plans, even outside of busy hours, the consumer watchdog has revealed.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/life/tech/2019/11/07/nbn-speeds-accc-measuring-broadband/
One of the recipients of the regional jobs program heavily criticised by the Auditor-General seems bo a cot case.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/nov/08/bus-and-ferry-project-that-received-1m-coalition-regional-grant-delayed-and-losing-money
According to Amy Remeikis the government faces an uphill battle in winning independent senator Jacqui Lambie’s vote to expand its cashless debit-card program across the Northern Territory.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/nov/07/coalitions-bid-to-expand-cashless-welfare-card-yet-to-win-over-jacqui-lambie
Rob Harris has a look at some aspects of the drought package including the use of SA’s desalination plant.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/south-australia-frees-up-100-gigalitres-of-water-to-help-drought-stricken-farmers-upstream-20191107-p538fn.html
Michael Pascoe writes that while the government throws money at the bush, farm prices are paradoxically booming.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/finance-news/2019/11/07/drought-government-farm-property/
Amy Remeikis tells us that drought is not a natural disaster and must be accepted as an enduring feature of the Australian landscape which climate change is only going to make worse, the drought coordinator has reported, warning the nation may see some areas become “more marginal and unproductive” as a result.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/nov/07/drought-to-become-more-frequent-severe-and-longer-due-to-climate-change-government-reports
National Australia Bank interim chief executive Phil Chronican has warned profit margins will take a bigger hit from ultra-low interest rates in the year ahead, and that cutting borrowing costs has lost its potency as a form of stimulus.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/nab-profits-tumble-10-6-per-cent-as-customer-compensation-costs-bite-20191107-p5385q.html
This submission by Jeffrey Knapp to the impending Parliamentary Inquiry into the Regulation of Auditing in Australia documents how the Big 4 audit firms – KPMG, PwC, Deloitte and EY – have undermined Australian auditing and financial reporting practice for multinational clients. Knapp includes a number of recommendations.
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/knapp-big-four-failed-australia-for-their-multinational-clients/
Thirty years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, we are now in an era of building them again writes Waleed Aly. He says that in Australia we are being lightly stalked by this fortress mentality, too.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/thirty-years-after-the-berlin-wall-came-down-new-walls-are-rising-up-20191107-p538a1.html
Georgie Moore writes about the AEC’s somewhat bizarre statement that Chinese people would not have been influenced by the spurious Chinese language posters.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/voters-not-naive-wouldn-t-have-been-swayed-by-sign-aec-tells-court-20191107-p538ff.html
Nick McKenzie and Chris Masters report that Afghan investigators have corroborated the testimony of a former Australian special forces medic who said an injured Afghan man in his care was taken away by a senior SAS soldier and summarily executed.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/investigation-puts-a-name-to-the-man-whose-death-traumatised-sas-medic-dusty-miller-20191107-p538a8.html
Michaela Whitbourn reports that after a 12-year pay freeze and threats of lawyers withdrawing from cases over fee disputes, the NSW government has announced it will “progressively” increase the hourly rates paid to private lawyers appearing in Legal Aid cases.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/lawyers-to-wait-until-2023-for-major-increase-in-legal-aid-rates-20191107-p5388d.html
A panel of experts assembled to help with emissions reductions is led by those in favour of fossil fuels, writes Michael Mazengarb.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/expert-emissions-panel-stacked-in-angus-taylors-favour,13286
Sam Duncan tells Margaret Court it’s her fault that so much fuss has been made about her moralistic stances.
https://www.smh.com.au/sport/tennis/courting-controversy-sorry-margaret-it-s-your-own-fault-20191107-p538ct.html
And Jenna Price says we need sporting heroes to unite us, not divide us.
https://www.smh.com.au/sport/we-need-sporting-heroes-to-unite-us-not-divide-us-20191107-p538e3.html
Aged Care advocate Rachel Lane says that Australians have earned the right to quality, affordable aged care.
https://www.smh.com.au/money/super-and-retirement/australians-have-earned-the-right-to-quality-affordable-aged-care-20191107-p538ae.html
PhD student Angela Jackson makes some interesting observations about the aged care market.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/yes-profit-motive-can-help-bolster-aged-care-20191106-p537zo.html
Despite many Australians campaigning for fairness, the Morrison Government still insists on denying assistance to the Biloela family, writes Meg Devery.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/treatment-of-tamil-family-shows-the-inhumanity-of-the-morrison-government,13288
Law lecturer Zoe Rathus writes that One Nation leader Pauline Hanson’s unfounded claim women that lie about domestic abuse to deny fathers access to their children is what’s driving the latest parliamentary inquiry into the family law system.
https://theconversation.com/parental-alienation-the-debunked-theory-that-women-lie-about-violence-is-still-used-in-court-125823
In a typically classy act Donald Trump jnr on Wednesday tweeted the name of the alleged whistleblower whose complaint about his father’s behaviour towards Ukraine kick-started the impeachment inquiry.
https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/trump-jnr-exposes-identity-of-officer-who-prompted-impeachment-inquiry-20191107-p538b3.html
Boris Johnson has made a “cast iron” pledge that he will not grant Nicola Sturgeon the powers she needs to hold a second independence referendum.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/07/pm-gives-cast-iron-pledge-to-refuse-second-scottish-independence-vote
Cartoon Corner
David Rowe and the report into Labor’s loss.
What a beauty from Jim Pavlidis!
Cathy Wilcox and police strip searches.
Nice work from Jon Kudelka.
From Matt Golding.
Zanetti is not impressed with the drought package.
Nor is Alan Moir.
A nice gif from Glen Le Lievre.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1191120819537104896
Jon Kudelka and the Labor post mortem.
https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/7185e02e004a142c7e8efccb0e778fbf?width=1024
From the US
That is dribble Scott.
Albo is merely taking his time to establish himself with the public as leader. He has made it clear very recently that there will be no wholesale retreat on Labor values. Only a recalibration. Good. Good. As Albo said on the day he was confirmed as leader – the election is in 2022, not 2019. As we know, elections are won in the last 3 weeks. We also know the scene must be set for that late battle now, but with 3 years in an election cycle it may well pay dividends to make sure you have your respective ducks in a row first.
Labor values. There’s a term without usefulness and which a good portion of the population think is code for increased union power. Drop ‘labor values’ and ‘labor traditions’ FFS.
Diplomat’s testimony implicates multiple Fox News hosts in Giuliani’s ‘campaign of slander’ against ambassador
Deputy Assistant Secretary for European and Eurasian Affairs George Kent told congressional investigators last month that Trump attorney Rudy Giuliani relied on multiple hosts at Fox News to amplify his “campaign of slander” against former United States ambassador to Ukraine Marie Yovanovitch.
In a transcript of testimony released on Thursday, Kent recalled how a coordinated campaign attacking Yovanovitch started ramping up this past March, starting with an editorial in The Hill by conservative John Solomon. From there, he said, “both the Hannity Show and the Laura Ingraham show covered this topic extensively.”
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/11/diplomats-testimony-implicates-multiple-fox-news-hosts-in-giulianis-campaign-of-slander-against-ambassador/
A bit harsh, perhaps? Tony Abbott has lived off the taxpayer for years, yet what has he done for society?
Maybe if Labor supporters spent less time attacking the Greens/left and more time focusing on campaigning against the Coalition then they might not have done so badly. Blaming Facebook isn’t going to get you anywhere either. Social media is a fact of life in 2019. Labor should have easily won the social media narrative but they didn’t. They were up against a rabble of a Coalition who’d spent the last term ripping itself apart. It should have been a walk in the park for Labor.
You’d find more cheer in a graveyard than this place this morning. No, we’re not all doomed. Labor just ran a terrible campaign. If Labor supporters keep blaming everyone else though and continue to have a defeatist attitude then you will likely doom yourself to repeated failures.
I know you lot are upset at what happened to Labor but it’s time you picked yourselves up and started getting serious about going after the Coalition this term.
I have been watching Jeremy Corbyn’s campaign launch speech. Love him or hate him one must applaud his delivery all fluently and passionately spoken with nary a glance at a small card with a few dot points.
If I could sum up his speech it would be “I will sprint away from Thatcherism”.
BK @ #26 Friday, November 8th, 2019 – 5:02 am
As should the rest of the world.
It seemed much more than that from the ads I did see – mostly in the print media which was highly saturated in the final weeks of the campaign.
Another one for the #ETTD file and how it spreads to those around him:
Not quite being booed, but still letting her know the entire Trump clan is toxic.
https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/melania-trump-faces-the-music/22734/
lizzie,
Sad but true about the influence of facebook. Especially among one of the target groups the Labor Election review lost in spades, the 25-34 year olds. Especially the low information, low interest in politics voters.
On the Central Coast of NSW we were able to drive our campaign against Abbott and Hockey pretty much exclusively through facebook, to the extent that we ended up getting about 1500 people to march against the Coalition on a busy Saturday morning, when a lot of families have sports commitments and do their shopping. And a lot of them were in the age group that could be covered by the description of ‘young families’. As well as us ‘usual suspects’. And The Greens and their followers. 🙂
AE
Labor needs to reconnect with its members. Its members are its greatest strength.
That means going left publicly. Its what the members want. We know this from polling and the choice of Albanese over Shorten.
A passionate grass roots campaign with the base roused and out at war is the way Labor wins. The grassroots authenticity cannot be duplicated by the LNP. Its their greatest weakness.
That means ignoring Labor v Green wars and instead just do it on the issues.
Climate Change is an example. The LNP is on the ropes even as they try and hold back the tide.
The lies are being exposed as people hit the streets. The people’s passion and concern cannot be faked.
People power will win.
As we saw Greta Thunberg has been very very successful and is part of this worldwide movement the LNP is trying to suppress. Labor should get on the right side of history. Create a crystal clear narrative and oppose Adani so it can harness all the political authenticity from supporting that people power movement.
Instead of people wasting time here arguing about how Labor is not against the science.
Make it crystal clear by actions Labor is for the science and accepts that means no NEW coal mines.
No more fence sitting and confusing people with a “nuanced” position at odds with very well known facts.
Edit: Its a culture war now and Labor has to choose a side
@lana_arcus tweets
In the past, We have spent a fortune on free education – both secondary and tertiary. Before Hex came in, tertiary education was free. But where are the benefits? Many of Our politicians are EXCEPTIONALLY ignorant and dumb, and their policies have damaged our country
#ETTD for voter disengagement. I’ve said previously Trump should be the strongest motivator for people to get out and vote.
Confessions @ #28 Friday, November 8th, 2019 – 8:10 am
I did a deep dive into Clive Palmer’s candidates, in every seat and every Senate team, at the last election and I could not find that sharp-featured blonde woman that was the face of his ads. So she must have simply been a carefully-chosen actor for the part. 😐
Confessions
Yes Trump is a strong motivator. So are the policies. The base is roused and in a fighting mood.
Confessions @ #33 Friday, November 8th, 2019 – 8:15 am
I read that Obamacare was a big motivating factor for the voters. Former Governor Bevin and the Repug legislature had promised to virtually gut it if they won.
C@t
Someone has made the point that people are so busy that strangers knocking on the door are a nuisance, whereas social media can be accessed at a time that’s convenient.
The social media campaign in the US hard at work
Remember though that the media is far more diversified in the US.
@ZAc_Petkanas tweets
For the love of God.
GORDAN SONDLAND LITERALLY TESTIFIED THAT HE PERSONALLY TOLD THE UKRAINIANS THAT MILITARY AID WAS LINKED TO INVESTIGATIONS ON SEPTEMBER 1 IN WARSAW.
Oh. And by the way — Pence did too.
In Warsaw.
On September 1.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/trump-involved-pence-in-efforts-to-pressure-ukraines-leader-though-aides-say-vice-president-was-unaware-of-pursuit-of-dirt-on-bidens/2019/10/02/263aa9e2-e4a7-11e9-b403-f738899982d2_story.html https://twitter.com/RepMarkMeadows/status/1192174472364728325
Just finished with Ambassador David Hale’s testimony, the number 3 at the State Department and a distinguished public servant.
He made a compelling case that there was absolutely no linkage between suspension of military aid and political investigations.
An interesting development:
@lynlingking tweets
Religious belief is rated the least important attribute that defines Australians’ sense of who they are
@no_filter_Yamba
https://northcoastvoices.blogspot.com/
lizzie @ #37 Friday, November 8th, 2019 – 8:19 am
Exackerly. They also don’t particularly like being bothered at train stations when they are bleary-eyed on their way to work at 5am.
C@tmomma @ #34 Friday, November 8th, 2019 – 5:16 am
I didn’t see many Clive ads as I don’t watch much TV.
But our local paper had wraparound Clive covers, essentially giving Clive the front, back and page 2 of every paper. They were wall to wall anti-Labor.
@Cat
I think you may mean Suellen Wrightson. She was UAP’s candidate in Warringah.
See here: https://www.unitedaustraliaparty.org.au/candidates/suellen-wrightson/
Thanks, BK.
I assume that Johnson has written off Scotland in more ways than one.
Danama Papers @ #39 Friday, November 8th, 2019 – 8:20 am
The Vance family and the Cuomo family are doing very well against the Trump family. It’s a New York thing. Frank Sinatra got it absolutely right:
https://youtu.be/EEjq8ZoyXuQ
@Reuters tweets
Facebook says doctored UK election clip wouldn’t break its ad rules https://reut.rs/36EX17T https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1192553673991368705/photo/1
I think in Kentucky there were issues such as an unpopular governor, policy issues (esp health and education), plus the Trump factor. But in Virginia I reckon it was mostly Trump as today’s crazy GOP Trump cult wiped away the last vestiges of any reason for educated people in suburbs to vote for them.
Confessions
The high turnout out is due to the young stay at homes of 2016 turning out. Sanders is the biggest candidate motivating them. Followed by Warren.
Its a dual motivator and its not an either or thing. Thats the biggest point.
The whole Scary Squad Bernie Sanders Pelosi Witch Hunt thing is failing Trump big time. It’s working for the Democrats as Trump paints the Democrats as anti elite and thus paints them as exactly the party voters in swing states should vote for.
It was always the case that policy is reality and is what gets the base fired up.
Personality politics only takes you so far in the US with Deep Fakes and Fake News wars on Facebook.
Edit: A case in point. The media in the US tried to ignore this guy. He forced his way onto the media coverage by his social media presence.
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