Autopsy turvy

Amid a generally predictable set of recriminations and recommendations, some points of genuine psephological interest emerge from Labor’s election post-mortem.

The public release of Craig Emerson and Jay Weatherill’s report into Labor’s federal election campaign has inspired a run of commentary about the way ahead for the party after its third successive defeat, to which nothing need be added here. From the perspective of this website, the following details are of specific interest:

• Labor’s own efforts to use area-based regression modelling to identify demographic characteristics associated with swings against Labor identifies five problem areas: voters aged 25-34 in outer urban or regional areas; Christians; coal mining communities; Chinese Australians; and the state of Queensland. The variable that best explained swings in favour of Labor was higher education. However, as has been discussed here previously, this sort of analysis is prey to the ecological fallacy. On this basis, I am particularly dubious about the report’s suggestion that Labor did not lose votes from beneficiaries of franking credits and negative gearing, based on the fact that affluent areas swung to Labor. There is perhaps more to the corresponding assertion that the Liberals were able to persuade low-income non-beneficiaries that Labor’s policies would “crash the economy and risk their jobs”.

• Among Labor’s campaign research tools was a multi-level regression and post-stratification analysis, such as YouGov used with notable success to predict seat outcomes at the 2017 election in the UK. Presumably the results were less spectacular on this occasion, as the report says it is “arguable that this simply added another data point to a messy picture”. The tracking polling conducted for Labor by YouGov showed a favourable swing of between 0.5% and 1.5% for most of the campaign, and finally proved about three points off the mark. YouGov suggested to Labor the problem may have been in its use of respondents’ reported vote at the 2016 election as a weighting factor, but the error was in line with that of the published polling, which to the best of my knowledge isn’t typically weighted for past vote in Australia.

• An analysis of Clive Palmer’s advertising found that 40% was expressly anti-Labor in the hectic final week, compared with only 10% in the earlier part of the campaign. The report notes that the Palmer onslaught caused Labor’s “share of voice” out of the sum of all campaign advertising fell from around 40% in 2016 to 25%, and fell as low as 10% in “some regional markets such as Townsville and Rockhampton”, which respectively delivered disastrous results for Labor in the seats of Herbert and Capricornia.

• It is noted that the gap between Labor’s House and Senate votes, which has progressively swollen from 1% to 4.6% since 1990, is most pronounced in areas where Labor is particularly strong.

Other news:

• The challenge against the election results in Chisholm and Kooyong has been heard in the Federal Court this week. The highlight of proceedings has been an admission from Simon Frost, acting director of the Liberal Party in Victoria at the time of the election, that the polling booth advertising at the centre of the dispute was “intended to convey the impression” that they were Australian Electoral Commission signage. The Australian Electoral Commission has weighed in against the challenge with surprising vehemence, telling the court that voters clearly understood that anything importuning for a particular party would not be its own work.

• The ABC reports there is a move in the Tasmanian Liberal Party to drop Eric Abetz from his accustomed position at the top of the Senate ticket at the next election to make way for rising youngester Jonathan Duniam. The Liberals won four seats at the 2016 double dissolution, which initially resulted in six-year terms being granted to Eric Abetz and Stephen Parry, and three-year terms to Duniam and David Bushby. However, the recount that followed the dual disqualifications of Jacqui Lambie and Stephen Parry in November 2017 resulted in the party gaining three rather than two six-year terms, leaving one each for Abetz, Duniam and Bushby. Bushby resigned in January and was replaced by his sister, Wendy Askew, who appears likely only to secure third place on the ticket, which has not been a winning proposition for the Liberals at a half-Senate election since 2004.

• Andrew Clennell of The Australian ($) reports that Jim Molan is likely to win a Liberal preselection vote on Saturday to fill Arthur Sinodinos’s New South Wales Senate vacancy. The decisive factor would appear to be support from Scott Morrison and centre right faction powerbroker Alex Hawke, overcoming lingering hostility towards Molan over his campaign to win re-election by exhorting Liberal supporters to vote for him below the line, in defiance of a party ticket that had placed him in the unwinnable fourth position. He is nonetheless facing determined opposition from Richard Shields, Woollahra deputy mayor and Insurance Council of Australia executive, who was runner-up to Dave Sharma in the party’s hotly contested preselection for Wentworth last year.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,909 thoughts on “Autopsy turvy”

Comments Page 2 of 39
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  3. Confessions @ #48 Friday, November 8th, 2019 – 8:27 am

    I read that Obamacare was a big motivating factor for the voters. Former Governor Bevin and the Repug legislature had promised to virtually gut it if they won.

    I think in Kentucky there were issues such as an unpopular governor, policy issues (esp health and education), plus the Trump factor. But in Virginia I reckon it was mostly Trump as today’s crazy GOP Trump cult wiped away the last vestiges of any reason for educated people in suburbs to vote for them.

    Also, as was pointed out, the Virginia Beach gun massacre and Charlottesville White Supremacy march and murder of one of the counter protesters, motivated a lot of people to vote for the Democrats agenda. Ralph Northam is already flagging getting right onto gun control measures. And Virginia will become the 38th State to ratify the ERA, thus making it law across the land (I think).

  4. During the election they talked about record spending levels.
    I didn’t hear anyone asking where the money was coming from.
    The government is currently running ads boasting a 100 billion price tag.
    I haven’t heard anyone asking where the money is coming from.
    Jay H this morning talking to Geraldine D was telling us how the punters were worried about where the money was coming from to pay for all the new stuff.

    Jay and Craig have over-thought this.
    The punters just ain’t that sophisticated.
    Clive and Scrott scared the shit out of them.
    End of story.
    And it’ll probably work again unless the ALP learn to push back.

  5. …”Tony Abbott … has a heart which beats like everybody else and he’s been brutally wounded by appalling condemnation and vilification which no person of his ability should ever have had to endure,” Mr

    Alan

    Jones told a Liberal Party who’s who.

    Says the man who decalred that Mr Abbott’s predecessor should be put in a chaff bag and dumped at sea, who said who father died of shame, who stood beneath a sign which I won’t quote….

    No self-awareness, no shame. It is a mystery why this appalling man’s career didn’t end 20 years ago with “Cash for Comment”.

  7. Its incredibly disappointing to see Labor place themselves front and centre of derision by promoting their not so bad supposed failings at the last election and as an entity, enabling the LNP dominated MSM together with social media to have a picnic.
    Palmer outlayed a small fortune in the last election to achieve a similiar result.
    This latest self mutilation in the face of an existing LNP dictatorial government, led by a bumbling clown, consisting of blatantly corrupt ministers and 19th Century policy direction, is disheartening.
    Labor were not thrashed at the last election, but were thrashed by over estimating the intelligence of the electorate and ignoring the religion of money.
    The poll bludger bubble is evident.

  8. guytaur @ #51 Friday, November 8th, 2019 – 8:35 am

    @ConversationEDU tweets

    The messages for next time from Labor’s 2019 election post-mortem are clear.

    1. Have a better strategy.
    2. Have a stronger narrative, fewer policies, greater emphasis on economic growth.
    3. Have a better leader.

    From @michellegrattan

    https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-labors-post-mortem-leaves-the-hard-work-still-to-be-done-126596

    1. Have a strategy.
    2. Have a narrative, fewer policies, emphasis on economic growth.
    3. Have a leader.
    Fixed it.

  10. In a nutshell:

    Progressive groups, banking on a Labor victory, focused their efforts on getting commitments from the Opposition, rather than spending their time ensuring the Coalition’s demise.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-07/labor-election-review-bill-shorten-failures-warning-for-albanese/11683892

    And Goll, don’t put me in your Labor PB bubble. I’m clear-eyed about Labor’s failings and doing all I can to help reconstruct the party.

  11. lizzie @ #40 Friday, November 8th, 2019 – 8:20 am

    Urban Wronski
    @UrbanWronski
    ·
    2m
    An orgy of sanctimonious, platitudinous condescension towards Labor overwhelms ABC RN “post-mortem” commentators. Labor a total failure of policy, leadership and structure? No hint that ABC played a big role, following MSM lead, ignoring Labor policy; amplifying Liberal lies.

    A shame neither Weatheril not Emerson had the guts to call it out.
    So Labor right now.
    Quick, someone pat the little puppy dog.

  12. C@t:

    Jennifer Rubin says Republicans have a ‘suburbs problem.

    “Suburbs” covers a wide array of locales. It can conjure up images of leafy neighborhoods, deep front yards and two-car homes. These suburbanites think of themselves as “upper middle class” but occupy the top 5 percent of earners. These are one- or two-professional-parent households trying to save for college and retirement and send some money to their under-employed college graduate son or daughter.

    …

    Voters from these kinds of neighborhoods used to be the backbone of the Republican Party outside the Deep South. They elected responsible, sober governors like Tom Ridge in Pennsylvania or statesman-like senators personified by John Warner in Virginia. George W. Bush won Virginia in 2000 and 2004; his father won Pennsylvania as well in in 1988.

    The Trumpized Republican Party — vulgar, anti-intellectual, racist and reactionary — fares rather differently in these suburbs. The MAGA party that flaunts climate change denial, champions family separations at the border, balloons the debt and creates havoc internationally has lost these voters.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/11/06/its-suburbs-silly/

    I’d add swampy. The Trump presidency is the swampiest of dank swamps as people are appointed to plum cabinet posts who have zero expertise for the portfolio, but have a history of greasing palms inside the Republican party, or Team Trump.

  13. guytaur @ #31 Friday, November 8th, 2019 – 8:14 am

    AE

    Labor needs to reconnect with its members. Its members are its greatest strength.

    That means going left publicly. Its what the members want. We know this from polling and the choice of Albanese over Shorten.

    A passionate grass roots campaign with the base roused and out at war is the way Labor wins. The grassroots authenticity cannot be duplicated by the LNP. Its their greatest weakness.
    That means ignoring Labor v Green wars and instead just do it on the issues.

    Climate Change is an example. The LNP is on the ropes even as they try and hold back the tide.
    The lies are being exposed as people hit the streets. The people’s passion and concern cannot be faked.
    People power will win.

    As we saw Greta Thunberg has been very very successful and is part of this worldwide movement the LNP is trying to suppress. Labor should get on the right side of history. Create a crystal clear narrative and oppose Adani so it can harness all the political authenticity from supporting that people power movement.

    Instead of people wasting time here arguing about how Labor is not against the science.
    Make it crystal clear by actions Labor is for the science and accepts that means no NEW coal mines.
    No more fence sitting and confusing people with a “nuanced” position at odds with very well known facts.

    Edit: Its a culture war now and Labor has to choose a side

    Any self professed ALP voter who didn’t vote Labor in May was not really an ALP voter.

  14. The mistake Jeremy Corbyn is making as leader is he is putting his views above that of the members.

    His majority is for Remain. He has finally come to the inevitable we need another referendum position.
    IF he had that position crystal clear from Day One he would have won the last election in my opinion.

    However his personal views override the majority member wish of the Remain position if as it seems he is on the Brexit side. Even today as he highlights the damage Brexit will bring with a Thatcherism on Steroids he is undoing his narrative by being on the fence.

    This is exactly the same problem Labor has had on Adani and how it undercut Labor’s authenticity and narrative and let the fakes in.
    Listen to your base. Not a small cohort of workers in North Queensland.

  15. Sam Roggeveen is Director of the International Security Program at the Lowy Institute, and author of ‘Our Very Own Brexit: Australia’s Hollow Politics, and Where it Could Lead Us.’

    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/dateline/opinion-how-australia-s-hollow-politics-could-lead-to-our-very-own-brexit

    There’s an alternative theory which accounts for these apparent anomalies, which is that the electorate is simply drifting away from the big centre-right and centre-left parties. This has been happening all over the West for decades now as employment has changed from blue collar to white, as women’s role in society has changed and as religion has moved from the centre of society. All these changes have undermined the basis on which these traditional parties were formed.
    :::
    It is true, of course, that right-wing populist parties have done well in Europe in recent years, but that doesn’t necessarily mean voters are becoming more right wing. An alternative explanation is that there has always been a minority attracted to the ideas these parties represent, but until recently the major parties had their vote locked up. As these parties have diminished, the populist vote has been liberated.
    :::
    At the 2019 Australian federal election, for instance, almost 25 per cent of voters put an independent or minor party first on the House of Representatives ballot paper. The primary vote of both major parties declined, reinforcing an almost unbroken trend which started decades ago.

    Eventually, the independents and small parties will make their popularity felt in the House of Representatives. Thanks to the voting system, it is still hard for them to get elected, but on present trends the dam will break and we may get 10 or 11 cross-bench seats rather than four or five. At that point, we will get permanent minority government.

    That’s not a disaster in itself – plenty of countries manage to run their affairs quite well that way. The real danger is in the way the big parties behave on their way down. One of them could trigger something just as disruptive as the Conservatives did with Brexit.

  16. Mundo

    Voters are very different from ALP members. Members have a loyalty to Labor that lots of voters will never have

    Labor is in a scary place when I hear Paul Keating on my radio this morning pleading with Labor not to be the Liberal party

  19. Full Rick Wilson column now available :

    Trump Told Kentucky’s Voters to Make the Election About Him. They Did, and He’s Fucked.

    Trump proved this week that big rallies, big talk, and bad campaigns are a recipe for electoral disaster, and alienated suburban voters are a dagger in the heart of the GOP.

    Andy Beshear’s stunning apparent victory in the Bluegrass State’s governor’s race was about one thing and one thing only. And Republicans should be terrified.

    All hail the glorious power of Donald John Trump, 45th president of the United States, the greatest motivator of voter turnout in our lifetimes! Sing his praises as a man with the power to hold a single rally that alters the course of elections! Bow down and touch the hem of his robe, knowing that when he tweets, things happen.

    Of course, this all applies only if you’re a Democrat.

    For you, Donald Trump is the greatest political gift imaginable, a universal solvent that dissolves intra-party squabbling, makes policy unnecessary, and motivates your voters to knock doors, work phones, donate money, and get out on Election Day, rain or shine. Hell, considering how much he’s done for the Democratic Party to date, you should be sending him a DoorDash of Kentucky Fried Chicken on the daily and naming your kids after the man.

    For Republicans, you are—and this is a term of art from politics and polling with which you might want to familiarize yourself—fucked.

    MUCH MORE : https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-told-kentuckys-voters-to-make-the-election-about-him-they-did-and-hes-fucked?ref=home

  20. @DougCameron tweets

    I have posted on Facebook my initial concerns at aspects of the election review. I agree with much of the report but have grave reservations on other parts that look like a capitulation to “the big end of town”.

  22. guytaur @ #69 Friday, November 8th, 2019 – 8:59 am

    @DougCameron tweets

    I have posted on Facebook my initial concerns at aspects of the election review. I agree with much of the report but have grave reservations on other parts that look like a capitulation to “the big end of town”.

    Hey Doug that’s a great expression, we should use that in the next campaign.

  23. C@t:

    One thing these elections are proof of is that Democrats can take advantage of the once-voting Republican voters in suburbs by nominating not-scary candidates. One of the reasons why I fear the Democratic presidential primary because I can see Dems nominating Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders, candidates that have little appeal to those voters, voters who are needed for Democrats to get the Electoral College votes.

  24. Mundo

    Individual members will have different views. However its very clear from votes that the members are left wing. Not right wing. They win on issues like LGBTI over the vested interests of unions.

    As you say not having a narrative let others write it for Labor.
    The party machine listening to the members gives it a crystal clear narrative to pursue.
    There is very good reason the reforms recently have been to force the party machine to listen to the members more.

    IF Labor had they would have gone to the last election with a figure on Newstart for a rise while they had the review. A crystal clear rejection of the demonisation of the poor the LNP and media engage in every day.

    Instead the Labor party has been running scared of being labelled socialist or Green.

  25. like a capitulation to “the big end of town”.

    While at the same time the review report recommends getting rid of such divisive rhetoric.

    It recommends the party stick with its core values and principles, including action on climate change, and pursue “the language of inclusion, abandoning divisive rhetoric, including references to the big end of town”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/nov/07/labor-election-review-strategy-adaptability-bill-shorten-defeat

    In other words devise rhetoric that disguises the true intent of policies favourable to the interests of big business over the 99%, for example, free trade agreements.

  26. Confessions

    You miss the point entirely

    The GOP ran exactly that campaign in Kentucky. The Democrats won with Bernie Sanders going to Kentucky and holding rallies there.

  28. Hey Doug that’s a great expression, we should use that in the next campaign.

    Sure, ditch the expression, but keep the general policy sentiment. Big rich companies are taking taxpayers, workers and small business owners for a ride and if the ALP cant see it in themselves to stand up for that then wo wo wo what are they good for?

  29. So many Labor foot soldiers must be absolutely gutted by the apparently incompetent federal Labor campaign.

    How long before the rationalisation to remain a party member, viz “It is better to fight for the change we want within the party rather than out” wear a tad thin.

    It will be interesting to see if the party’s membership declines.

  31. The Democrats won with Bernie Sanders going to Kentucky and holding rallies there.

    with? Because of? Regardless of?
    The Democrats are lucky to have Sanders. Their diversity in politicians and especially in the candidates themselves should be their strength. I hope come the 2020 election campaign they are all still actively campaigning for the Democrat presidential, senator, MOC, Governor, education board….. nominees to win.

  32. guytaur @ #52 Friday, November 8th, 2019 – 8:35 am

    1. Have a better strategy.
    2. Have a stronger narrative, fewer policies, greater emphasis on economic growth.
    3. Have a better leader.

    4. Don’t try and walk both sides of the same street with your policies 🙁
    5. Sort out your toxic state parties in NSW and QLD 🙁
    6. Don’t believe anything the media or polling companies tell you 🙁

  33. O.M.G.

    News Breakfast @BreakfastNews
    · 2h
    In a speech at a dinner last night celebrating former PM Tony Abbott’s time in parliament, Peter Dutton praised the former Liberal leader and said he was misunderstood by some in the media.

    “It’s his intelligence and depth of thought that wasn’t properly appreciated.” #auspol

  34. SK

    I have high hopes that is going to happen. We won’t know until after the Caucus part of the Primary Campaign is over to see if the current friendliness between the campaigns is a front so as not to piss off the second pick option.

  35. guytaur @ #73 Friday, November 8th, 2019 – 9:07 am

    Mundo

    Individual members will have different views. However its very clear from votes that the members are left wing. Not right wing. They win on issues like LGBTI over the vested interests of unions.

    As you say not having a narrative let others write it for Labor.
    The party machine listening to the members gives it a crystal clear narrative to pursue.
    There is very good reason the reforms recently have been to force the party machine to listen to the members more.

    IF Labor had they would have gone to the last election with a figure on Newstart for a rise while they had the review. A crystal clear rejection of the demonisation of the poor the LNP and media engage in every day.

    Instead the Labor party has been running scared of being labelled socialist or Green.

    Agree, they should be proudly socialist like the National Party.

  36. @jonkudelka
    ·
    2m
    Also, here’s my last editorial cartoon for the
    @australian
    . Thanks for publishing all my awful cartoons as well as the occasional good one. The first one in 1998 was about Collins class subs IIRC.

  38. Thanks BK for the Dawn Patrol. In particular this item 👇 👇👇👇

    PhD student Angela Jackson makes some interesting observations about the aged care market.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/yes-profit-motive-can-help-bolster-aged-care-20191106-p537zo.html

    *Aged care providers know a lot more about their own quality than potential residents and their families, creating a specific set of issues.

    This means providers can skimp on quality and not face costs in terms of reduced price or demand for their services. Under this scenario, providers will never produce the optimal level of quality, because it isn’t in their interest to do so.

    Inadequate funding levels have to be addressed, with a good first step being the government reinvesting the billions in savings it took from the system in 2016. A second step may involve looking again at the issue of franking credits, and a more worthwhile use of that $8 billion in support for older Australians.

    Where all this would help desperate families with no assets and little income attempting to help their loved one I remain clueless.

    *In relation to this item (Aged care providers know a lot more ..) I found this item of help ..from the point of view of the Aged Care Provider —

    https://mediocremeanderings.com/2018/05/02/grief/

    My attempt to resolve various complaints met with (from Aged Care Managers) —- in sequence👇👇👇👇

    Shock (damn I though we got away with it), Denial (who’s been talking), Emotional Outbursts (How Dare You), Anger —- and then the character assassination begins going back to and possible prior to the birth of Christ.

    Good morning all. In conclusion this item.

  39. Agree, they should be proudly socialist like the National Party.

    This is what Joyce said preelection

    This election is about whether you will have a left-wing socialist government or a conservative government — a government which believes if you work hard and earn money it should be protected, or a government that thinks your money should pay for their promises for their mates’ utopia

    I think he gets a little dizzy after the hyphen.
    I like how he prefixes ‘socialist’ with ‘left wing’. I nice caveat.

  41. Simon Katich @ #88 Friday, November 8th, 2019 – 9:27 am

    Agree, they should be proudly socialist like the National Party.

    This is what Joyce said preelection

    This election is about whether you will have a left-wing socialist government or a conservative government — a government which believes if you work hard and earn money it should be protected, or a government that thinks your money should pay for their promises for their mates’ utopia

    I think he gets a little dizzy after the hyphen.
    I like how he prefixes ‘socialist’ with ‘left wing’. I nice caveat.

    Of course judge ’em by what they do and expect from the rest of us rather than what they say. The agrarian socialist party will always tell the punters to look over there.
    Oh, shit, I think I forgot to make a donation to my local farmer.

  43. It’s what Tony Abbott did, and had been doing since his Sydney University days, with his thoughts, that was the problem.

  44. I can’t believe all this Labor flagellation over a 1.5 percent loss….they got 48.5 percent of the vote. It was a narrow loss. From the MSM chatter you would think Morrison won a landslide victory.
    Labor should not be feeding that opinion airing its dirty washing.

  46. Torchbearer

    The MSM do love a nice car crash, especially if they can create it around Labor.

    Also, this is a good point.

    As one Labor source put it: “They’ve jammed Albo now by saying only a popular leader can win an election – so if he is less popular than Morrison before the next election, do they dump him?”

  47. @mj_lee tweets

    Andrew Yang reacts to the Michael Bloomberg news on @CNN rn:

    “Well, he’s a phenomenal entrepreneur and businessman…” but says it would be “tough” for someone to jump into the race now.

  49. The Facebook strategy (now revealed but hardly secret) and the Palmer strategy were both very simple, very negative (which works) and rather similar.

    The Facebook strategy has been described. The Palmer strategy targeted low interest “f them alll” voters (who mainly wanted the election to go away). Palmer’s ads were diesgned purely to be really annoying (and were). By featuring Mr Shorten extensively they created a visual association between Mr Shortenand the annoyance felt by the targets/marks. This didn’t cause the marks to vote for anyone in particular (and certainly not for Palmer), but it did cause some of them to vote against Mr Shorten, whom they had come to regard as the source of their annoyance as a result of the visual association (which is buried deep in the human brain). This meant in particular that rather than “undecided” voters distributing in the usual fashion the distribution was skewed against the ALP. This both interfered with the polling predictions (which assumed historical distributions of undecideds) and affected the result.

  50. Eddy Jokovich
    @EddyJokovich

    Former ABC journalist told me they left after a long career because the anti-Labor slant was virulent within the newsroom, commitment to balanced journalism junked and management with a Christian bent eager to please LNP government. Hard to work there under those circumstances.

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