Autopsy turvy

Amid a generally predictable set of recriminations and recommendations, some points of genuine psephological interest emerge from Labor’s election post-mortem.

The public release of Craig Emerson and Jay Weatherill’s report into Labor’s federal election campaign has inspired a run of commentary about the way ahead for the party after its third successive defeat, to which nothing need be added here. From the perspective of this website, the following details are of specific interest:

• Labor’s own efforts to use area-based regression modelling to identify demographic characteristics associated with swings against Labor identifies five problem areas: voters aged 25-34 in outer urban or regional areas; Christians; coal mining communities; Chinese Australians; and the state of Queensland. The variable that best explained swings in favour of Labor was higher education. However, as has been discussed here previously, this sort of analysis is prey to the ecological fallacy. On this basis, I am particularly dubious about the report’s suggestion that Labor did not lose votes from beneficiaries of franking credits and negative gearing, based on the fact that affluent areas swung to Labor. There is perhaps more to the corresponding assertion that the Liberals were able to persuade low-income non-beneficiaries that Labor’s policies would “crash the economy and risk their jobs”.

• Among Labor’s campaign research tools was a multi-level regression and post-stratification analysis, such as YouGov used with notable success to predict seat outcomes at the 2017 election in the UK. Presumably the results were less spectacular on this occasion, as the report says it is “arguable that this simply added another data point to a messy picture”. The tracking polling conducted for Labor by YouGov showed a favourable swing of between 0.5% and 1.5% for most of the campaign, and finally proved about three points off the mark. YouGov suggested to Labor the problem may have been in its use of respondents’ reported vote at the 2016 election as a weighting factor, but the error was in line with that of the published polling, which to the best of my knowledge isn’t typically weighted for past vote in Australia.

• An analysis of Clive Palmer’s advertising found that 40% was expressly anti-Labor in the hectic final week, compared with only 10% in the earlier part of the campaign. The report notes that the Palmer onslaught caused Labor’s “share of voice” out of the sum of all campaign advertising fell from around 40% in 2016 to 25%, and fell as low as 10% in “some regional markets such as Townsville and Rockhampton”, which respectively delivered disastrous results for Labor in the seats of Herbert and Capricornia.

• It is noted that the gap between Labor’s House and Senate votes, which has progressively swollen from 1% to 4.6% since 1990, is most pronounced in areas where Labor is particularly strong.

Other news:

• The challenge against the election results in Chisholm and Kooyong has been heard in the Federal Court this week. The highlight of proceedings has been an admission from Simon Frost, acting director of the Liberal Party in Victoria at the time of the election, that the polling booth advertising at the centre of the dispute was “intended to convey the impression” that they were Australian Electoral Commission signage. The Australian Electoral Commission has weighed in against the challenge with surprising vehemence, telling the court that voters clearly understood that anything importuning for a particular party would not be its own work.

• The ABC reports there is a move in the Tasmanian Liberal Party to drop Eric Abetz from his accustomed position at the top of the Senate ticket at the next election to make way for rising youngester Jonathan Duniam. The Liberals won four seats at the 2016 double dissolution, which initially resulted in six-year terms being granted to Eric Abetz and Stephen Parry, and three-year terms to Duniam and David Bushby. However, the recount that followed the dual disqualifications of Jacqui Lambie and Stephen Parry in November 2017 resulted in the party gaining three rather than two six-year terms, leaving one each for Abetz, Duniam and Bushby. Bushby resigned in January and was replaced by his sister, Wendy Askew, who appears likely only to secure third place on the ticket, which has not been a winning proposition for the Liberals at a half-Senate election since 2004.

Andrew Clennell of The Australian ($) reports that Jim Molan is likely to win a Liberal preselection vote on Saturday to fill Arthur Sinodinos’s New South Wales Senate vacancy. The decisive factor would appear to be support from Scott Morrison and centre right faction powerbroker Alex Hawke, overcoming lingering hostility towards Molan over his campaign to win re-election by exhorting Liberal supporters to vote for him below the line, in defiance of a party ticket that had placed him in the unwinnable fourth position. He is nonetheless facing determined opposition from Richard Shields, Woollahra deputy mayor and Insurance Council of Australia executive, who was runner-up to Dave Sharma in the party’s hotly contested preselection for Wentworth last year.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,909 comments on “Autopsy turvy”

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  1. BKsays:

    When ‘catastrophic’ fire warnings become relatively commonplace, where do fire authorities go from here? Cataclysmic?
    ______
    Or “How good id that”?

    Scrott’s ‘thoughts and prayers’ are for the day “Armageddon Fire Warning” is issued. That or “End Times Fire Warning”

  2. ajm @ #1832 Sunday, November 10th, 2019 – 7:16 pm

    The really sad part is that others can’t work out that RI is opposed to Adani but supports the Qld government approving it.

    Sorry, but if that had been a “one off” post you might have a point. But you forget all the other pro-coal posts that briefly has made. Also, he is consistently “anti” taking any meaningful action on coal, and he also continually posts the same easily refutable nonsense to “support” his arguments.

  3. Earlier I mentioned Ch 7 showed Morrison at the (presumably) fire coordination centre in Taree. He was posing for selfies and giving autographs and I thought this was rather inappropriate at the moment.

    Then I realised that Morrison is still in election campaign mode because he is incapable of properly performing the duties of a Prime Minister. He is the PR person who has climbed the career ladder, kicking others off the ladder along the way and, as with previous jobs, has reached his level of incompetence.

  4. Rex……….at this point in time…………….No…………Do you know anything at all about the life/times/career of Winston Churchill but any chance, to answer your question? Seriously…..

  5. Bravo Tricot – Bill Shorten is in the same league as Winston Churchill.

    You’ve obviously spent an afternoon on the wacky tobaccy.

  6. The Governor of California certainly accepts the link between increased severity of bushfire activity and climate change – and says so to Trump.

    Twitter exchange last week (I can’t copy tweets properly but this is the exchange):

    Gavin Newsom
    ‏Verified account
    @GavinNewsom
    Gavin Newsom Retweeted Donald J. Trump
    You don’t believe in climate change. You are excused from this conversation.

    Donald J. Trump
    ‏Verified account
    @realDonaldTrump
    The Governor of California, @GavinNewsom, has done a terrible job of forest management. I told him from the first day we met that he must “clean” his forest floors regardless of what his bosses, the environmentalists, DEMAND of him. Must also do burns and cut fire stoppers…..
    6:11 AM – 3 Nov 2019

  7. ajm says:
    Sunday, November 10, 2019 at 7:16 pm

    The really sad part is that others can’t work out that RI is opposed to Adani but supports the Qld government approving it. Final approval will be what finally kills off Adani both as a project and as a political issue, because they will have no option but to pack up and go home because the project is nonviable.
    ..

    And won’t the Greens be so sad. The junior anti labor party will have to move to their next wedge. I put forward the miss-use of the word woke.

  8. Lars Von Trier
    says:
    Sunday, November 10, 2019 at 8:21 pm
    Bravo Tricot – Bill Shorten is in the same league as Winston Churchill.
    You’ve obviously spent an afternoon on the wacky tobaccy.
    __________________________________
    We may have reached peak Shorten with this one. I cant wait for his third concession speech tbh. Should be a classic.

  9. Was interesting listening to the Albo interview on Insiders. His stance on Climate Change is a good one and a practical way to get actual action. Lesson learned is that for action to be politically possible then policy HAS to be framed and marketed in terms of jobs as well as the environment. Puts Adani in context though.

    My take is that mine may or may not go ahead, but it represents a battle in a wider war. Works well for the lying Libs and Coal huggers to keep the opposition bogged down in that particular battle. ALP looking to get get mobile again and continue the war in a way that is winnable. I’d see that as a lesson from both the last election and wider history.

    On Morrisum’s thought and prayers fire response? I have problems with anyone who subscribes to a brand of Pentecostal / Evangelical religion. Subscription to that kind of radical, very exclusionary and divisive belief system implies a worldview that is fundamentally incompatible with the concept of governing for all. I respect his right to hold to that belief system, but hold that belief system in contempt. And…that belief system is all based on gittin right with Jaaaaaessussss so yalll dont go tu Hell after the End Times acummin.

    ScoMo being a public figure, who has openly and blatantly used his religious beliefs to try and enhance his political prospects, should have a reasonable expectation that his motivations are discussed in those terms. Problem is the reaction to any such discussion which is considered off limits as it immediately gets jumped on as unfair god-botherer bashing. Funny, saw a good quote recently that well applies to Morriscum and his Trumpist ilk. Something like…..”Modern Fascism in the West comes wrapped in the Flag and carrying a Cross”.

    Still, Albo did pretty well today i think and there is hope. Unfortunately the road ahead will be paved with lying troll shit turned to mud by the tears of impotent virtue signalers. Buy better boots guys. 🙂

  10. “….is the reaction to any such discussion which is considered off limits as it immediately gets jumped on as unfair god-botherer bashing. …”

    Albanese is wooing those “god-botherers”. I wonder what he will promise or vote for in the parliament to win them over?

  11. Frankly, the single most useful thing the Greens could do about Adani is to shut up about it, accept they lost that battle, learn from the experience, and get on with battles they might be able to win.

    The Greens need to do more than that. They need to learn that the grasping greedy grown-ups in politics are playing them off a break, and, as has been noted today, it is exactly what the Reactionary Anarchic Social Conservative Right, who have got them right where they want them, want them to do, to bicker and fight with and snark and snarl at Labor, while they take care of business.

    This is not university politics, guys, and if only The Greens would grow up and smell the Fair Trade Organic Coffee, work with Labor not against them. All. The. Time. Then the better it will be for Australia’s future.

  12. C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, November 10, 2019 at 9:11 pm
    _______________________
    You are absolutely right, The Greens need to work in close co-ordination with the ALP and the Yuhu Group going forward. It makes complete sense!

  13. ‘imacca says:
    Sunday, November 10, 2019 at 8:55 pm

    ‘ScoMo being a public figure, who has openly and blatantly used his religious beliefs to try and enhance his political prospects, should have a reasonable expectation that his motivations are discussed in those terms.’

    The Coalition is doing a good job of getting Ozzie Fundies who formerly voted for Labor to vote for the Coalition. SSM, the Religious Discrimination Bill, School pastors and the Pell Defensiveness, are part of a pattern not just isolated blips in the landscape. IMO, Morrison would be quite happy for the Left to show its ongoing hostility to religious people, religious views and religions (other than Buddhism, I suppose.) The Fundies start by feeling persecuted and anything that can be used by Morrison to increase that feeling of persecution suits him just fine.

    Is this a culture war battle that he can hardly lose because the Left automatically go for the sucker bait?

    As the Labor autopsy acknowledged, Labor lost lots of christian votes. Mocking Morrison’s religiosity feeds Morrison’s power.

  14. So presumably the second position on the NSW Coalition Senate ticket is reserved for the Nats at the next election. That leaves Molan battling with Marise Payne and Connie Fierravanti-Wells to secure a place in the top three. (I don’t hold out any hope for them winning fewer than three spots at the election, which hasn’t happened since 2001.)

    My main fear is that Payne, who clocks up 25 years as a Senator in 2022, will have had enough by then, and her replacement would presumably stand no chance of being picked for a higher ticket position than either of the other two incumbents. All I can do is cross my fingers and hope against hope for another preselection humiliation and resulting glorious meltdown…

  15. – ———————
    Yesterday I made the mistake of reading the comments thread on a piece about the state of the horse racing industry by Patrick Smith in The Australian.
    ———————-
    No sane person would bother to read the comments section of an article post.

  16. Has Elliott arrested himself yet?
    Or will he only get around to that when he has finished considering Taylor’s referral?
    Corrupt? Cynical?
    Why has Berejiklian not stood Elliott down? The notion that the police that he reckons HE pays can do a reasonable job of investigating him while he is their boss is sick. No shame. No truth.

  17. Cat

    Labor should back its carbon price.

    Plenty of photos today of that dance the LNP did photoshopped on the fires.

    Own it.
    Labor did well it’s time to turn the screws on the LNP not argue over Adani as Gerard Henderson wants.

    It’s a great time for Labor to reject coal.
    With the new “super” union it might just happen. 🙂

    Go United Workers Union

  18. Boerwar says:
    Sunday, November 10, 2019 at 9:19 pm
    Has Elliott arrested himself yet?
    Or will he only get around to that when he has finished considering Taylor’s referral?
    Corrupt? Cynical?
    Why has Berejiklian not stood Elliott down? The notion that the police that he reckons HE pays can do a reasonable job of investigating him while he is their boss is sick. No shame. No truth.
    ________________________
    Why don’t you ask Bluey your pet Octopus for the answer?

  19. “This is not university politics, guys, and if only The Greens would grow up and smell the Fair Trade Organic Coffee, work with Labor not against them”

    Sounds like something that would come out of the mouth of someone steeped in the world of university politics.

    Bringing such condescension to the table will surely work a treat to foster harmonious relations.

  20. Woke was initially a self-congratulatory term used by the left and is now used as a derogatory term by the right. It’s a bit like “politically correct”.

  21. Dio,

    That’s the conclusion I am reaching. It seems to have been appropriated by the right to mean something else to its original usage.

  22. Pegasus @ #1872 Sunday, November 10th, 2019 – 9:24 pm

    “This is not university politics, guys, and if only The Greens would grow up and smell the Fair Trade Organic Coffee, work with Labor not against them”

    Sounds like something that would come out of the mouth of someone steeped in the world of university politics.

    Bringing such condescension to the table will surely work a treat to foster harmonious relations.

    Yes, it’s just juvenile and puerile, isn’t it?

    This article has an interesting take …

    https://www.themandarin.com.au/110527-centre-left-politics-dead-in-crisis-or-in-transition/

    While I am not sure I agree with it all, here is what they say …

    the primary vote of the ALP has consistently fallen, and certainly stagnated over the past three elections. Indeed, the ALP has not won an election outright for over a decade.”

    “Is this a crisis of social democracy? Perhaps. The bleakest view, offered by writers like Ashley Lavelle is that the parties are actually already “dead”. In this view, social democracy was a specific egalitarian model – especially in the 1970s – and since the parties have capitulated to neoliberal orthodoxy they are bereft of meaning (Hawke-Keating era is the Australian exemplar).

    A different approach is to understand the problems facing the centre-left as an electoral “crisis”, particularly the European parties. Much of this literature focuses on what has happened to these parties since the heyday of the “third way” in the 1990s. In sum, it is unclear that the parties have yet to sufficiently recover their core mission and aims.

    A third view sees this less as a crisis and more a “transition” – epitomised by a writer like Herbert Kitschelt. In this view, the parties are in a process of change as they reconcile with left libertarian agendas. That central dilemma – environment concerns vs “traditional” jobs – played out starkly in Queensland for the ALP, over the Adani mine.

    So, the most optimistic view is that the ALP is facing a transition, and this is epitomized by the dispute over the Adani mine.

    This may help many here understand why this is such a divisive issue for both the left and the right factions of Labor. They can’t seem to resolve it, nor can they leave it alone.

    Which faction will win? Who knows? All I know is that the rest of us will most likely lose as a result of this ongoing shitstorm that Labor seems completely unable to get beyond.

    Also, it is a fair bet that they will continue to blame the Greens. That serves as a very useful distraction.

  23. Why would anyone archive anything bludged here?

    Of course, the QLD Government should approve Adani, subject to the usual processes. That would be the politically and administratively rational course.

    This does not mean I think Adani is a “good thing”. I think the environment will be advantaged when coal is eliminated from the fuel system. There are demand-side measures that can be taken to accomplish this….measures that are already being taken. An embargo on coal projects in Australia will not accomplish this. Not at all.

    I am very much against the use of Adani for political purposes by both the Greens and the LNP. This makes things harder than they need to be. Having said this, of course the Greens will not wind down their Adani campaign. Even though it is environmentally irrelevant it is politically-profitable to them and they will stick with it.

  24. guytaur

    Yes, it’s great news about the formation of the UWU. It will represent so many of the lowest paid workers. More leverage, more reources combined. Smart move, including its structure.

  25. The opponents of Adani have yet to show how an embargo on the project will change the trajectory of coal consumption in the world. This is what matters.

  26. If you are truly woke, you use the term “cis male” instead of “male”. Cis male means you were assigned a male identity at birth and still identify as male.

  27. Pegasus @ #1872 Sunday, November 10th, 2019 – 9:24 pm

    “This is not university politics, guys, and if only The Greens would grow up and smell the Fair Trade Organic Coffee, work with Labor not against them”

    Sounds like something that would come out of the mouth of someone steeped in the world of university politics.

    Bringing such condescension to the table will surely work a treat to foster harmonious relations.

    And that’s where you would be wrong, and presumptive, as you so often are. 🙂

  28. Diogenes @ #1887 Sunday, November 10th, 2019 – 6:44 pm

    If you are truly woke, you use the term “cis male” instead of “male”. Cis male means you were assigned a male identity at birth and still identify as male.

    I mustn’t be woke cause I only heard the term ‘cismale’ for the first time on Qanda recently. I thought it was ‘sis male’ as some kind of put-down!

  29. Coal demand is declining.

    Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources set its October thermal coal reference price — also known as Harga Batubara Acuan, or HBA — at $64.80/mt, down 1.5% month on month and 35.8% year on year, the lowest since October 2016.

    Tepid Indian demand, coupled with Chinese utility tenders awarded at below spot market levels, put downward pressure on Indonesian thermal coal prices in September.

    The ministry had set the price for September at $65.79/mt, and for October 2018 at $100.89/mt.
    The HBA is a monthly average price based 25% each on Platts Kalimantan 5,900 kcal/kg GAR assessments, Argus-Indonesia Coal Index 1 (6,500 kcal/kg GAR), Newcastle Export Index (6,322 kcal/kg GAR) and globalCOAL Newcastle (6,000 kcal/kg NAR).

    In September, the daily Platts FOB Kalimantan 5,900 kcal/kg GAR coal assessment averaged $60.16/mt, down from $61.31/mt in August, while the daily 7-45 day Platts Newcastle FOB price for coal with a calorific value of 6,300 kcal/kg GAR averaged $62.61/mt, up from $62.24/mt in August.

    The HBA price for thermal coal is the basis for determining the prices of 77 Indonesian coal products and calculating the royalty producers have to pay for each metric ton of coal sold.

    It is based on 6,322 kcal/kg GAR coal with 8% total moisture content, 15% ash as received and 0.8% sulfur as received.

    Source: https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/coal/100819-indonesia-sets-oct-hba-thermal-coal-price-at-6480-mt-slips-2-on-month

  30. RI @ #1881 Sunday, November 10th, 2019 – 9:44 pm

    The opponents of Adani have yet to show how an embargo on the project will change the trajectory of coal consumption in the world. This is what matters.

    It has been explained to you many times. You just can’t seem to accept it. Adani has become a totemic issue for you in particular (i.e. even more than for Labor in general). You defend it far beyond the point of rationality, and are blind to any arguments against it.

  31. This liberal party compilation of the weirdness of Bill Shorten was pretty good tbh. They included many of my own highlights. Including meeting Arnold Schwarzenegger and telling him ‘Im going to be the next Prime Minister of Australia.’ Asking people what their favourite type of lettuce, and calling a cow ‘very handsome’. As well as the survey where he went around asking people what their favourite time of day was. Fckn Hilarious.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=etPnY8tPU34

  32. “If you are truly woke, you use the term “cis male” instead of “male”. ”

    One reason that “woke” has become a joke term.

  33. RI @ #1886 Sunday, November 10th, 2019 – 9:50 pm

    Coal demand is declining.

    No, coal price is declining in our traditional markets. Which actually makes it more attractive to several other Asian countries that are therefore expected to make more use of it. The long term consequence is that demand for our thermal coal – which is the one Adani will produce – is expected to increase in the short term, and then either stagnate or increase slightly in the medium to long term.

    This was explained in the link that you posted, but apparently failed to understand 🙁

    But you don’t need to worry – I am happy to keep pointing this out to you until you get it.


  34. The Indian Coal and Railways Minister Piyush Goyal has repeatedly stated his target for India to cease thermal coal imports, recognising the threat to India’s energy security of India’s excessive and unsustainable reliance on fossil fuel imports.
    India’s progress has been astonishing. With wind and solar tariffs regularly being tendered for Rs2.40-3.00/kWh (Figure 3.1), existing domestic thermal power generation is struggling to compete. NTPC, India’s largest power generator, had an average 2017/18 tariff for coal-fired power of Rs3.26/kWh. Non-mine mouth coal requires tariffs of Rs4-5/kWh and new imported coal fired power generation requires a tariff of Rs4-6/kWh. September 2018 saw Gujarat complete a 500 MW solar tender at a record low of Rs2.44 / kWh, zero indexation for 25 years. And this trend is set to accelerate, given global solar module prices fell by 30-38% over 2018, the biggest annual decline in a decade. New coal can’t compete with these deflationary tariffs that are contractually set to decline in real terms every year.

  35. guytaur
    I’m really struggling to work out the difference between about twelve of those terms. As imacca says, it’s confusing for most people.

  36. The Adani Group has expanded into renewable energy development, floating its renewable energy business (Adani Green Energy) on the Bombay Stock Exchange in June 2018. With 3 GW of renewable energy infrastructure in operation, and another 3 GW in planning, it is one of the top 5 corporate investors in Indian renewables. In Australia, Adani announced a 1,500 MW solar investment program across Queensland and South Australia.
    As a result, India’s renewable energy installs have more than doubled to 12-15 GW annually, while thermal power installs (net of closures) have dropped 80% to just 4 GW annually vs the 20 GW annual installs evidenced in 2012/13-2015/16

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