Newspoll: 50-50

The Coalition’s lead disappears altogether in the latest Newspoll, which also records a resounding bounce in Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings.

Newspoll has turned in a result for its three-weekly federal poll which, if nothing else, shows it’s not letting the May election result prevent it from publishing optimistic-looking numbers for Labor. As related in The Australian ($), the latest poll has the major parties tied on two-party preferred, after four successive results of 51-49 in favour of the Coalition.

The Coalition is down two on the primary vote to 40%, with Labor up two to 35%, the Greens down one to 12% and One Nation up one to 7%. Anthony Albanese enjoys some encouraging movement on personal ratings, with approval up five to 42% and disapproval down seven to 37%. However, Scott Morrison’s ratings are little changed, with approval down one to 46% and disapproval down two to 43%, and his lead as preferred prime minister narrows only marginally, from 47-32 to 46-32.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1682.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,370 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

Comments Page 38 of 48
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  1. lizzie
    says:
    Thursday, November 14, 2019 at 8:37 am
    nath
    Agree with you.
    _________________
    Lizzie, lets think about all those extra cars from the north east suburbs that will now be piling on to the Eastern to get to the city and the enormous bottleneck we are creating at Hoddle Street.

  2. Richie Merzian
    @RichieMerzian
    ·
    35m
    Wow

    Former NSW fire chief Greg Mullins revealing federal gov has gone from 50/50 split costs for helicopters, fire equipment with States in 2003 to paying just 10% & not meeting emergency chiefs to discuss better prep and climate
    @RNBreakfast
    #auspol

  3. AE

    Labor needs to take the environment more seriously. The Greens need to take workers economic security more seriously. Labor needs to plan faster for transition to ensure that economic security for workers.

    The whole point about Adani is its a red line. The gateway drug to opening up the carbon bomb. Its an expansion of coal. Not a status quo but an expansion.

    Labor needs to see this reality and plan the economic security of the workers. That should be done no matter if it falls over for commercial grounds anyway. At least by not approving it Labor will be sending the message its serious on the environment.

    Its a long time until the next Federal Election and Queensland Labor had to oppose Adani at the last state election to win.

    So just do it and forget about Adani by taking it off the board because until Labor gets the guts to do that it will continue to cave to the deniers scare campaign

  4. Good god did Trump really say this? Is he not aware that Turkey does not have a free press?

    Jake TapperVerified account@jaketapper
    6m6 minutes ago
    In light of POTUS asking (joking?) for only friendly Turkish reporters to ask questions of Erdogan, here’s a recent report from the Committee to Protect Journalists: “Turkey bans critical reports on military operation in Syria, detains 2 journalists”

  5. “because Modi has guaranteed that the Adani coal fired power stations in India will come on line regardless of where the coal is sourced from”

    ***

    Of course he has…

    That’s Modi in 2014 when he was the PM elect.

    Hint: check out the brand name on the plane he’s getting into.

  6. Victoria
    says:
    Thursday, November 14, 2019 at 8:43 am
    nath
    I’m not in Bulleen.
    ___________________
    Well it will affect Balwyn North too. The once lovely Riverside estate in Balwyn North will now have this monstrosity peering over it.

  7. lizzie
    says:
    Thursday, November 14, 2019 at 8:47 am
    nath
    I don’t want to think about it!
    _____________________
    It seems strange that tunnels can be arranged for some sections of the NE link but not for the interchange at Balwyn North/Bulleen.

  8. Mark KnollerVerified account@markknoller
    4m4 minutes ago
    .@POTUS says he knows “nothing” about the allegation at today’s hearing that he was overheard asking for a progress report on “the investigations” he asked Pres Zelenskiy to conduct. “I know nothing about that.” Called it 2nd hand info. Insists he said “no quid pro quo.”

    You get the feeling Trump had never heard the expression ‘quid pro quo’ before September. But I’d bet London to a brick he knows what a shakedown is! 😆

  9. @jonkudelka
    ·
    3m
    Just FYI when the calendar clicks over to the 20s, everything you said about climate change not being real is void and you can change your mind without penalty, though people are allowed to raise one (1) eyebrow. Please avail yourself of this once in a decade opportunity. Cheers.

  10. Victoria
    says:
    Thursday, November 14, 2019 at 8:53 am
    nath
    Probably the most exciting thing to happen to north balwyn in a century. LOL!
    __________________
    No that was when the bakery at Greythorn burnt down in 2016! And I must correct you Victoria. It’s never north Balwyn, but Balwyn North! 🙂

    As a child I used to go yabbying along Koonung Creek. It’s just such a shame we have all these horrible freeways.

  11. nath

    I haven’t studied the alternative routes recently, but from my position in the outer east, a “ring road around Melbourne” that goes through inner suburbs such as Bulleen is satire.

  12. lizzie
    says:
    Thursday, November 14, 2019 at 8:58 am
    nath
    I haven’t studied the alternative routes recently, but from my position in the outer east, a “ring road around Melbourne” that goes through inner suburbs such as Bulleen is satire.
    __________________________
    Yes. exactly. It’s just cheaper than the alternatives. There is no other explanation.

  13. “ The whole point about Adani is its a red line. The gateway drug to opening up the carbon bomb. Its an expansion of coal. Not a status quo but an expansion.”

    This is propaganda and bullshit. Coal from Carmichael is earmarked for use in Adani’s indian coal power stations. If that turns out to be uneconomic the mine will close, if it ever even opens. This is dubious, regardless of the approvals process.

    Unless, as an anti labor wedge the LNP decide to subsidise it. Which, thanks to the greens turning Adani into such a totem issue is very very likely. Such an own goal, greens.

    If coal is not sourced from Carmichael then it will be sourced elsewhere. India, Indonesia, the Hunter or Bowen basin are the most likely alternative sources. The decision whether to commission and operate coal power stations is one of national governments, mainly in the developing world. They know that coal is cheap and readily available. That will remain the case regardless of what Australia does with its coal exports. They are the salient facts. Real tangible ascertainable facts.

    How many times does this need to be pointed out?

    How many times do you have to learn that voters in the regions and outer burbs will not vote for closing down an existing local industry if that industry will simply be replaced by others on the World market. The possibility that Australian coal could be replaced by Indonesian coal and that coal would be burnt anyways sends these voters mad. That message repeals these voters, regardless of whether they are in the coal game or not. Those who are not in the coal game, but wear hi-vis to work believe that the Greens are coming for them next. They also believe that Labor is tied to and beholden to the Greens. This is totally repellant – and their vote is worth more than yours because they happen to live in electorates that are presently in the LNP column but shouldn’t be. If they were not LNP electorates then the LNP would be incapable of forming government. in short ‘stronger on the environment’ is a vote killer to the progressive plurality where it counts.

    This represents a major change form the position in 1983 and 1990 elections. That’s because the conservatives have spent that last 25 years cultivating the repulsion in these key electorates.

  14. Victoria
    says:
    Thursday, November 14, 2019 at 9:00 am
    nath
    Even my relatives who live there, say north balwyn. Lol
    ___________________________
    They must be new to the area!

  15. AE

    I am not engaging you when you just come up with another excuse for the expansion of coal.

    Its pretty simple. New mine more coal mined and burned.
    Thats how voters see it.
    So thus Labor backs more coal.

    End of conversation as you seem unable to see that.

  16. nath
    says:
    Thursday, November 14, 2019 at 9:03 am
    Victoria
    says:
    Thursday, November 14, 2019 at 9:00 am
    nath
    Even my relatives who live there, say north balwyn. Lol
    __________________________
    And frankly, my grandmother, who was once a powerful force in the Balwyn North CWA would be appalled. RIP.

  17. @noplaceforsheep tweets

    Quiet Australians seem completely oblivious to society. Their concerns are entirely personal & immediate.
    Yep. Morrison’s perfect Australian

  18. nath

    With all the monstrosities being constructed in place of the once quaint houses in north balwyn, why would a road interchange be of any c0ncern to the locals.

  19. “Unless, as an anti labor wedge the LNP decide to subsidise it…”

    ***

    Adani mine would be ‘unviable’ without $4.4bn in subsidies, report finds

    Australian governments will give $4.4bn in effective subsidies to Adani’s Carmichael coal project, which would otherwise be “unbankable and unviable”, a new analysis has found.

    The report, by the Institute of Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, concluded that the project would benefit from several Australian taxpayer–funded arrangements – including subsidies, favourable deals and tax concessions – over its 30-year project life.

    It said the project would be further supported by public handouts, tax breaks and special treatment provided to Adani Power, the proposed end-user of the thermal coal in India.

    “If these subsidies were not being provided, Adani’s Carmichael thermal coal mine would be unbankable and unviable,” the report said.

    “The subsidies have been provided in an effort to get Adani’s thermal coal mine up and operating for the sake of a handful of jobs and a bag of royalties, payable in a decade or so.”

    In a detailed statement, Adani said the institute was “known for publishing alarmist papers that attempt to discredit the fossil fuel industry” and said the report “attempts to resurrect old and patently false and inaccurate claims suggesting the Carmichael project will only be viable because of a variety of government subsidies”.

    The report argued that a royalties holiday deal, still under negotiation between the Queensland government and the Indian conglomerate, “equates to a huge capital subsidy with taxpayers footing the bill”.

    The state has been clear that any royalty agreement with Adani would involve the deferred payment of royalties, with interest, and with security in place. Guardian Australia understands those discussions stalled about 18 months ago but have been revived since the federal election, in the Palaszczuk government’s newfound eagerness to finalise all outstanding approvals.

    “In total, the royalty holiday would reduce Adani’s capital employed by some $900m by year seven,” the report found. “This is a massive financial subsidy. Given the three-year construction timeline, it would mean zero royalties are likely to be paid by the Adani Group in the coming decade.”

    Adani said these discussions were “being progressed” and that details were commercial-in-confidence.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/aug/29/adani-mine-would-be-unviable-without-44bn-in-subsidies-report-finds

  20. The country’s peak scientific research body has gone public this morning with their struggle to convince the Prime Minister that this bushfire season is not the rapture and he has to do something about it.

    Acknowledging the political class’ request to keep politics out of debate surrounding this spring’s bush fire season, the CSIRO has explained that they’re not trying to start an argument over which group of largely pathetic public servants is to blame for the fires, they just want the man in charge to know that he can’t ride this one out on the Natuzzi.

    Late last night, an internal Liberal Party communique was leaked to the media that suggested that Scott Morrison is under the impression that God has lit these fires and the end of the world is now imminent.

    The CSIRO has been working tirelessly to convince him otherwise.

    https://www.betootaadvocate.com/uncategorized/csiro-struggling-to-convince-morrison-this-isnt-the-rapture-and-he-needs-to-do-something/

  21. ‘ That’s Modi in 2014 when he was the PM elect.’

    Yep, and when questioned about the implications of Carmichael not proceeding Modi has said that while he will honour the existing contract the coal fired power stations are not dependent upon it. He made it clear that coal would be sourced elsewhere if Carmichael fell over. He stressed that there would not be cost implications to consumers because of the ready availability of cheap alternative sources of coal. Here endeth the lesson.

  22. Meanwhile
    Tea Pain
    @TeaPainUSA
    ·
    21m
    Fox legal analyst: “Today was a good day for anyone who wants to shorten the Trump presidency.”

    Ouch!
    Fox legal analyst: Today was a good day for anyone who wants to shorten the Trump presidency
    As the first public hearings in the House impeachment inquiry against President Trump wrapped up this Wednesday, former assistant US attorney and Fox News contributor Andrew McCarthy said that he…
    rawstory.com

  23. Victoria
    says:
    Thursday, November 14, 2019 at 9:07 am
    nath
    With all the monstrosities being constructed in place of the once quaint houses in north balwyn, why would a road interchange be of any c0ncern to the locals.
    __________________________________
    Well that is another point. The loss of the once generous Balwyn North plots with accompanying trees will really begin to degrade the suburb eventually. It is happening now of course, but as more blocks get subdivided and houses and townhouses fill every square inch with no room for trees it will become desolate.

  24. “Here endeth the lesson.”

    ***

    The lesson being of course that Modi is a corrupt politician who has a long history of bending over backwards to help his mate Gautam Adani.

    Adani and Modi have history

    The chairman and founder of the Adani group, Gautam Adani, has had a long relationship with the recently re-elected Prime Minister of India, Narendra Modi.

    Modi played a decisive role in paving the way for Adani’s latest mega deal: selling coal-fired power from a plant in the Indian state of Jharkhand to nearby Bangladesh.

    The power for Bangladesh is set to be fired by Carmichael coal. Many Australians would be concerned to learn that our coal is to be used to power one of the most climate-challenged countries on the planet, but we have this on the authority of Adani’s previous Australian-based chief executive, Jeyakuma Janakaraj.

    Twelve days before the 2019 Indian election date was announced, the Modi government gave approval for an Adani project in Jharkhand to become the first designated power project in India to get the status and benefits of a Special Economic Zone, saving Adani billions of dollars in taxes, including clean energy taxes.

    The Indian state will provide land, infrastructure and water for the project and shoulder the burden of pollution. The cost of the power to Bangladesh is not expected to be cheap.

    http://theconversation.com/if-the-adani-mine-gets-built-it-will-be-thanks-to-politicians-on-two-continents-118043

  25. Guytaur
    “Its not the Greens fault Labor lost the election.”

    You can’t expect Labor “strategists” to blame themselves for the election loss. Then they might lose their jobs. And where would people that incompetent find another job in the current job market? Much better for them that Labor learns nothing and loses another election.

  26. Mavis @ #1886 Thursday, November 14th, 2019 – 9:20 am

    When the dust settles on the bush fire season, Morrison has some serious questions to answer:

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/we-saw-it-coming-former-fire-commissioner-says-government-was-warned-on-bushfires-20191114-p53agj.html

    Would have thought a lot of the immediate failures will likely be sheeted home to Gladys as the land management authority and any Councils that have prevented controlled burning etc.

  27. Is Morrison a bullshitter, a liar, or just someone who blanks out the truth from his mind?

    Bullshitting is different from lying. The American philosopher Harry Frankfurt, who attempted to build a theory of bullshit, explains this clearly. He argues that whereas the liar cares about the truth – their aim is to prevent others from learning it – the bullshitter does not care about the difference between the truth and falsity of their assertions. They just pick ideas out, or make them up, to suit their purpose.

    In the run up to his presidential campaign, Donald Trump, for instance, alleged that Barack Obama was born outside the US. This forced Obama to release his birth certificate. Trump then responded by labelling this birth certificate a forgery. Many would dismiss this as a childish political blunder or an act of political duplicity. But it was very effective in spreading seeds of doubt about Obama’s patriotism and in legitimising “concerns” about his loyalty to the country.

    This is now a regular feature of what is referred to as post-truth politics: leaders seeking to shape public opinion by spreading bullshit, a medley of lies, half-truths, innuendos and empty verbiage.

    https://theconversation.com/why-leaders-who-bullshit-are-more-dangerous-than-those-who-lie-125109?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=twitterbutton

  28. As for the Greens and greenies being blamed for the fires,thanks to BK for posting links to all the stories of technical experts calling out this obvious lie. But where was the Labor spokesman calling them out? In hiding.

    As many of BK’s posted links attest, at times like this the cartoonists often speak with more courage and honesty than the journos. So when a PM with media pack and film crews in tow goes to evacuation centres to get filmed comforting fire victims who have lost their homes, while saying that it is not the time to play politics, the lie needs to be called. Even more so because his own parties’ policy and Berejiklian’s budget were at least partly responsible. In the words of Red Gum, if that’s being Commo, then Commo’s where we stand. I think First Dog on the Moon says it even better.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/13/we-mustnt-bring-politics-into-the-disastrous-situation-that-was-created-by-wait-for-it-politics

  29. Firefox @ #1880 Thursday, November 14th, 2019 – 6:08 am

    Australian governments will give $4.4bn in effective subsidies to Adani’s Carmichael coal project, which would otherwise be “unbankable and unviable”, a new analysis has found.\

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/aug/29/adani-mine-would-be-unviable-without-44bn-in-subsidies-report-finds

    Well, there you have it folks.

    Labor has always stated that they would not approve the mine unless it stacks up on its own as a viable commercial enterprise. As it will never be a viable concern, it has met the criteria Labor has stated that is needed to not approve it.

    Cue a briefly rant about how Labor should approve it anyway so it puts distance between them and the Greens in a handful of coal mining electorates in rural Queensland. He may well be right on that score, however there’s still no evidence that that will convince the voters in those electorates to vote for Labor, whereas it will guarantee they lose votes everywhere else.

  30. DP

    Exactly regarding Adani and Labor approvals. Saying that corrupt decisions do not matter is what the corrupt always say.

    Where Labor’s policy of appeasement on Adani is really stupid as well as cowardly is that, having not won them a single vote in the election, they will now be able to be blamed for Adani by future Liberal governments for the next decade,when the job promises turn out to be lies.

    If Palaszczuk had been born in a Liberal household, she would have turned out just like Berejiklian. Have a good day all. Good luck firies.

  31. Danama Papers @ #1896 Thursday, November 14th, 2019 – 9:33 am

    Firefox @ #1880 Thursday, November 14th, 2019 – 6:08 am

    Australian governments will give $4.4bn in effective subsidies to Adani’s Carmichael coal project, which would otherwise be “unbankable and unviable”, a new analysis has found.\

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/aug/29/adani-mine-would-be-unviable-without-44bn-in-subsidies-report-finds

    Well, there you have it folks.

    Labor has always stated that they would not approve the mine unless it stacks up on its own as a viable commercial enterprise. As it will never be a viable concern, it has met the criteria Labor has stated that is needed to not approve it.

    Cue a briefly rant about how Labor should approve it anyway so it puts distance between them and the Greens in a handful of coal mining electorates in rural Queensland. He may well be right on that score, however there’s still no evidence that that will convince the voters in those electorates to vote for Labor, whereas it will guarantee they lose votes everywhere else.

    You should read the article. The report is clearly another hatchet job by the usual culprits.

    It lacks credibility imho.

    You Greenies must do better.

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