Newspoll: 50-50

The Coalition’s lead disappears altogether in the latest Newspoll, which also records a resounding bounce in Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings.

Newspoll has turned in a result for its three-weekly federal poll which, if nothing else, shows it’s not letting the May election result prevent it from publishing optimistic-looking numbers for Labor. As related in The Australian ($), the latest poll has the major parties tied on two-party preferred, after four successive results of 51-49 in favour of the Coalition.

The Coalition is down two on the primary vote to 40%, with Labor up two to 35%, the Greens down one to 12% and One Nation up one to 7%. Anthony Albanese enjoys some encouraging movement on personal ratings, with approval up five to 42% and disapproval down seven to 37%. However, Scott Morrison’s ratings are little changed, with approval down one to 46% and disapproval down two to 43%, and his lead as preferred prime minister narrows only marginally, from 47-32 to 46-32.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1682.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,370 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

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  5. The royalties holiday was not dormant 18 months ago as Firefox would have us believe. It was killed off 18 months ago. Like a stake through the vampires heart.

    Then came along the Adani convoy and the whole political landscape on the issue changed. The revisiting of the issue now is a direct consequence of the ‘stop Adani’ campaign repelling the vast majority of they state. Thanks guys. It little wonder that the royalties holiday negotiations has now had a Lazarus like revival. I reckon that Palaszczuk will now agree to the holiday. She has little choice, thanks to the wedge she has been placed in. Of course she could say no. The LNP will be saying yes and will win with a 30 seat+ majority.

    So the real political calculus in Queensland here is now:

    1. Adani with the possibility of a labor government protecting Queensland from 600,000 hectares per year land clearing, including hundreds of thousand of remnant bush clearing, or

    2. Adani, with an unchecked LNP government and 600,000 hectares of land clearing per year, relaxation of all forms of environmental controls across the state and worst of all, the commissioning of the Bradfield scheme which will kill the Bowen basin draining to lake Ayre and because they want to plug it into the headwaters of the darling, the whole MDB as well.

    On the plus side, a Greens candidate will likely replace Jackie Trad in West End. Yay Greens.

  7. Andrew_Earlwood @ #1872 Thursday, November 14th, 2019 – 9:02 am

    How many times does this need to be pointed out?

    And how many times do we need to refute the denialist crap from you and briefly about how opening new coal mines is not going to affect either the demand or the supply of coal, and therefore won’t generate greenhouse gases?

    You are as illiterate economically as you are scientifically.

  8. Obviously refusing bail would have created difficulties for the accused, but bail for a murder suspect is very rare. ABC reports:

    [A police officer charged with murder over the shooting death of a 19-year-old in a remote NT community has been released on bail.
    Constable Zachary Rolfe has been charged with the murder of Warlpiri man Kumanjayi Walker in relation to the incident.]

  10. The federal government expects the water to be used to grow an extra 120,000 tonnes of fodder for livestock. The water will be sold to farmers at a discount rate of A$100 a megalitre. That’s 10 cents per 1,000 litres.

    By comparison, the residential price for that water in Adelaide would be A$2.39 to A$3.70 per 1,000 litres.

    The production cost of desalinated water is about 95 cents per 1,000 litres when there’s rainwater already stored, according to a cost-benefit study published by the SA Department of Environment and Water in 2016. That means the total cost for the 100 gigalitres will be about A$95 million.

    So the federal government is effectively paying A$95 million to sell water for A$10 million: a loss to taxpayers of A$85 million.
    …
    In practice farms and farmers are incredible diverse, so not all irrigators will necessarily grow lucerne. Alternative fodders such as pasture or cereal hay generally have much lower market values. Which meaning the value of the fodder produced may be much less than the best-case scenario.

    It’s worrying that this policy shows such little regard for farming realities. It appears to have been crafted on the premise that every farmer has the same land, the same equipment and the same needs.

    https://theconversation.com/up-the-creek-the-85-million-plan-to-desalinate-water-for-drought-relief-126681

  12. The indoor plant trend makes sense: They look nice, for those who live in apartments without prolific gardens it’s a way to have some semblance of nature in your life, and they’re meant to be good for developing your nurturing, responsible side.

    There’s also a lot of talk about how they’re good for your health, they help to clean the air, and boost oxygen levels.

    That’s why you see so many companies building them into their work spaces – a vertical garden here, a smattering of monstera there. Happy, healthy employees.

    Science has squashed both these claims (to a degree) and revealed the intense density of indoor plants you actually need to make a difference to air quality.

    That magic number is 10 plants to every square foot.

    Which, if you visualise it, is a lot of plants stacked into not a lot of space. Even 10 bonsais would look out of place.
    …
    “This has been a common misconception for some time. Plants are great, but they don’t actually clean indoor air quickly enough to have an effect on the air quality of your home or office environment,” Associate Professor Waring said.

    The air purification myth can actually be traced back to NASA, which in 1989 released a study that claimed plants could be used to remove cancer-causing chemicals from the air.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/life/science/2019/11/13/house-plants-air-cleaning/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Morning%20News%20-%2020191114

  13. Greensborough Growler @ #1909 Thursday, November 14th, 2019 – 6:55 am

    Danama Papers @ #1902 Thursday, November 14th, 2019 – 9:47 am

    Greensborough Growler @ #1900 Thursday, November 14th, 2019 – 6:42 am

    It lacks credibility imho.

    Quelle surprise.

    You jumping on a half baked analysis with added exaggeration and lack of balance to make a hysterical assertion. That’s no surprise either. You do it every day.

    You dismissing a report without ever stating what’s wrong with it and attacking anyone who opines on it is even less surprising. You do it every day.

  14. I’m pretty upset that those bloody Greens have infiltrated the International Monetary Fund:

    New analysis commissioned by the International Monetary Fund has shown that global fossil fuel subsidies continue to grow, despite the growing urgency of the need to decarbonise the global economy.

    The working paper prepared by the IMF Fiscal Affairs Department estimated that, in 2017, global fossil fuel subsidies grew to $5.2 trillion, representing 6.5 per cent of combined global GDP.

    China leads all countries in the level of subsidies provided to fossil fuels, which the IMF report estimated to total $1.4 trillion in 2015. The United States followed with $649 billion in subsidies, Russia with $551 billion and the EU with $289 billion.

    The IMF estimates that annual energy subsidies in Australia total $29 billion, representing 2.3 per cent of Australian GDP. On a per capita basis, Australian fossil fuel subsidies amount to $1,198 per person.

  15. Australia being recognised

    https://www.theage.com.au/business/markets/sweden-dumps-aussie-bonds-as-country-not-known-for-good-climate-work-20191114-p53agw.html

    Sweden’s central bank has sold off bonds from parts of Australia and the oil-rich Canadian province of Alberta because it felt that greenhouse gas emissions in both countries were too high.

    Riksbank Deputy Governor Martin Floden said on Wednesday the bank would no longer invest in assets from issuers with a large climate footprint, even if the yields were high.

  16. The refusal of Facebook to take down misleading claims which attacked Labor is an illustration of the way in which Capital is hurting our democracy. Shareholders’ dividends are more important than fairness. Look at Aged Care, too.

  17. “Greenhouse gas emissions per capita are among the highest in the world.”

    “For the same reason, we have recently sold our holdings in bonds issued by the Australian states of Queensland and Western Australia.”
    ::::
    “Central bankers aren’t your typical tree huggers, so […] politicians should take note when they start blacklisting government bonds over climate concerns,” Keith Stewart, senior energy strategist with Greenpeace Canada, said in an email on Wednesday.

  18. “ And how many times do we need to refute the denialist crap from you and briefly about how opening new coal mines is not going to affect either the demand or the supply of coal, and therefore won’t generate greenhouse gases?

    You are as illiterate economically as you are scientifically.”

    So, oh professor, Adani power stations wont go ahead without Carmichael? Is that what you are saying?

    The Bangladesh government wont commission a dozen coal fired power stations if Australia denies them coal?

    In fact is any coal fired power station outside austral truly dependant upon Australian coal? (‘Dependant’ as opposed to the seperate question of whether existing supply contracts are in place. ‘Dependent’ as opposed to whether Austrian coal, because of quality issues and reliability of supply is desirable).

    The answers to all the questions above the answer is an emphatic ‘no’ oh professor.

    Put another way, if Australia gave 10 years notice that it was getting bout of supply thermal coal, the decisions as to whether to commission and/or continue to operate coal globally would not change. Not one bit.

    Also, what the fuck is this ‘you are a denier’ cant you keep repeating?

    It has no meaning given I don’t deny global heating due to man made causes, including greenhouse emissions.

    It isn’t made ‘true’ because I point to the other mechanisms by which man made warming occurs than CO2 emissions: particularly in relation to a whole frigging continent which has had its remanant woodlands denuded in just 230 years. FFS!

    Yesterday Craig Kelly called the 11,000 climate scientists cultists. This is not something I would say. You however, who parses their good and noble work to suit your own obsessions and ‘one size fits all’ prescriptions is undoubtably a cultist.

  19. “The royalties holiday was not dormant 18 months ago as Firefox would have us believe. It was killed off 18 months ago. Like a stake through the vampires heart.”

    ***

    Queensland Government offers Adani mining group a ‘royalties holiday’ that could cost state $320 million

    18 May 2017

    The Queensland Government is offering Indian mining company Adani a “royalties holiday” worth hundreds of millions of dollars for its massive Carmichael coal mine in the state’s north.

    The ABC understands the proposed agreement would see Adani pay just $2 million a year in royalties once the $21 billion project starts operating.

    The royalty rate will then increase after several years.

    Sources have told the ABC that under the proposed agreement, the state would lose out on a total of $320 million in royalties.

    Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk and Treasurer Curtis Pitt have been leading negotiations with Adani over the proposed royalties holiday.

    Ms Palaszczuk would not confirm or deny the royalty agreement, but emphasised the importance of the Carmichael mine for the state’s economy.

    “What we know about this project is that it is vital for regional jobs,” she said.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-05-18/queensland-government-gives-adani-royalties-holiday/8536560

  20. lizzie @ #1916 Thursday, November 14th, 2019 – 9:11 am

    The refusal of Facebook to take down misleading claims which attacked Labor is an illustration of the way in which Capital is hurting our democracy. Shareholders’ dividends are more important than fairness.

    Facebook isn’t doing it because shareholder dividends, they’re doing it because Facebook has a political agenda of its own which is served by promoting the far-right’s propaganda.

  21. The Guardian

    This also happened yesterday – Sherele Moody, who started the petition calling for Pauline Hanson to be removed from the latest family violence inquiry, which was tabled into the Senate by Larissa Waters, said this as part of the press conference:

    “After a cataclysmic event like this, domestic violence peaks,” she said.

    “Women become extremely unsafe, when generally the men return home from the fires and subject them to domestic violence.”

    Moody made her comments while standing next to Waters, causing the Greens senator to issue this statement later in the afternoon:

    The Greens absolutely do not support the statement made today by Sherele Moody that firefighters are responsible for an increase in domestic violence during times of disaster.

    Ms Moody is not affiliated with the Greens and does not speak for us. Today’s press conference with Senator Waters was held to receive a petition regarding the Family Law Inquiry. Ms Moody chose to make comments regarding matters unrelated to the press conference without our prior knowledge.

  23. a r @ #1920 Thursday, November 14th, 2019 – 10:15 am

    lizzie @ #1916 Thursday, November 14th, 2019 – 9:11 am

    The refusal of Facebook to take down misleading claims which attacked Labor is an illustration of the way in which Capital is hurting our democracy. Shareholders’ dividends are more important than fairness.

    Facebook isn’t doing it because shareholder dividends, they’re doing it because Facebook has a political agenda of its own which is served by promoting the far-right’s propaganda.

    This is true I think.
    I would consider very carefully the worth of staying on Facebook in the face of their clear political agenda. Then there’s the privacy issues…

  26. Nice cut and paste blow fly. Except you missed the bit where after that meeting Qld Cabinet and Caucus met and knocked the royalties holiday proposal on the head.

    But hey, how good is getting a Greens candidate up in West End? About as good as invasive species from the Herbert destroying the biodiversity of the whole Murray Darling Basin I reckon. … and you’ll still get Adani. Guaranteed in perpetuity by a never ending LNP Government.

    Think on this blow fly: the LNP amps up its policies against the environment NOT despite you guys campaigning against those same policies, but because you do.

    Get it? You are repellant and the LNP are using you to drag Labor under. Congratulations.

  28. lizzie

    One of the biggest marks against Mayor Pete in the Democratic race is his friendship with Mark Zuckerberg.

    Meanwhile Elizabeth Warren wants to break it up. No WhatsApp or Instagram on the FB platform for instance.

  29. lizzie

    One of the biggest marks against Mayor Pete in the Democratic race is his friendship with Mark Zuckerberg.

    Meanwhile Elizabeth Warren wants to break it up. No WhatsApp or Instagram on the FB platform for instance.

    Edit: sorry for double post

  30. Andrew_Earlwood @ #1918 Thursday, November 14th, 2019 – 9:12 am

    The Bangladesh government wont commission a dozen coal fired power stations if Australia denies them coal?

    Australia doesn’t control that and shouldn’t be structuring its decisions around what external actors may hypothetically do.

    Australia should quit new coal mines (and other new fossil-fuel projects) because that’s the right thing to do. If Bangladesh would then seek other sources of new coal, well that’s a matter for Bangladesh and doesn’t concern us here in Australia.

    Let some other country’s government get suckered into paying $4 billion in taxpayer-funded subsidies handouts just to make a new coal mine financially viable. We should be smarter than that.

  31. C@t asked up thread about QE affecting the Budget?

    Short answer is no.

    Classic QE involves the central bank buying back bonds – so in effect giving cash to private sector holders of government issued debt. The idea is that the cash influx to the private sector will cause them to reinvest, thereby stimulating the economy.

    Where does the cash come from? You ‘print it’ – in reality you create it, and then transfer it from your increased ‘holdings’, which in terms of money supply is the role of the central bank to manage.

    This is all off-Budget activity. The only possible effect is that future dividends from the Reserve Bank to the Commonwealth may be lower.

  32. I reckon that if the Greens announced a National Campaign against the death penalty then overnight Porter would announce the repeal of its federal abolition and state LNP’s would immediately announce its re-introduction.

    This would be an even greater anti Labor wedge than the environment – a wedge which both anti-Labor parties would pile in on gleefully.

    oops, I shouldn’t have said that, because it gives devious little Green minds another bad idea to pursue. Forget what I said Peg, Quoll and Blow fly …

  33. “Australia doesn’t control that and shouldn’t be structuring its decisions around what external actors may hypothetically do.”

    Umm, that’s how ‘export industries’ operate. But mate, you don’t have to convince me about what is the right thing to do, because ‘you had me at hello’.

    Just convince all those voters in the outer burbs, and regions who think that keeping coal going is a good idea. … Them. You know, the ‘verboten scum’ that keep returning corrupt and moribund LNP governments. Them.

  35. Hey ABC has a raving looney talking about bushfires right now.!!

    How Good is That!!! 🙂

    ………he is part of a group of fire chiefs…………..obviously sleeper agent for the evil leftists…….and probably votes ALP or Green or something nefarious….

  37. Andrew_Earlwood @ #1918 Thursday, November 14th, 2019 – 10:12 am

    “ And how many times do we need to refute the denialist crap from you and briefly about how opening new coal mines is not going to affect either the demand or the supply of coal, and therefore won’t generate greenhouse gases?

    You are as illiterate economically as you are scientifically.”

    So, oh professor, Adani power stations wont go ahead without Carmichael? Is that what you are saying?

    Your arguments are so full of straw it is a surprise you don’t spontaneously combust in the low humidity.

    So, let’s just try to clarify two things:

    1. Do you believe that opening the Adani mine will have no impact on coal supply and demand?

    2. Do you only want the Adani mine to proceed, or do you also support opening other new coal mines in the Galilee basin?

    Also, what the fuck is this your are a denier’ cant you keep repeating? It has no meaning given I don’t deny global heating due to man made causes. It isn’t made ‘true’ because I point to the other mechanisms by which man made warming occurs than CO2 emissions: particularly in relation to a whole frigging continent which has had its remanant woodlands denuded in just 230 years. FFS!

    I call you a denier because that’s what you appear to be. Although I would also be willing to concede that you are just ignorant.

    Land use changes (which includes, but is not limited to, deforestation) produce less than 1% of the greenhouse gas Australia emits every year:

    https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/BriefingBook45p/EmissionsReduction

    Fossil fuels (electricity, energy, transport) produce 70%. And, of course, the figure is much, much higher if you include our fossil fuel exports.

    Ignoring the elephant in the room and insisting we concentrate on the gnat is either denial or ignorance. Happy for you to tell us which it is.

    Yesterday Craig Kelly called the 11,000 climate scientists cultists. This is not something I would say. You however, who parses their work to suit your own obsessions and ‘one size fits all’ prescriptions is undoubtably a cultist.

    Hypocrisy, thy name is Andrew Earlwood!

  38. guytaur @ #1928 Thursday, November 14th, 2019 – 10:24 am

    lizzie

    One of the biggest marks against Mayor Pete in the Democratic race is his friendship with Mark Zuckerberg.

    Meanwhile Elizabeth Warren wants to break it up. No WhatsApp or Instagram on the FB platform for instance.

    Buttigieg or Biden for President? Haven’t ordinary Americans already suffered enough under Trump? I firmly believe Sanders or Warren are what the country needs right now.

  39. Andrew_Earlwood @ #1933 Thursday, November 14th, 2019 – 9:32 am

    Just all those voters in the outer burbs, and regions who think that keeping coal going is a good idea. … Them. You know, the ‘verboten scum’ that keep returning corrupt and moribund LNP governments. Them.

    I reckon if Labor found the courage to actually campaign hard on the issue and prosecute the argument for why a moratorium on new fossil-fuel projects is the right thing to do (and it’s a really, really easy argument to prosecute) they’d win the next election in a landslide.

    Fire up the young voters and millennials instead of alienating them. It’s better politics. 🙂

  40. Bellwether

    I think so too. If nothing else just seeing Billionaires crying over the possibility on national tv is an indication that Warren and Sanders are indeed the solution for combating what brought about the Great Crash not just for the US but for the world for the effect of the US on it.

    Jeff Bezos spending millions in a local council race to keep a socialist out tells you all you need to know. I think its great that failed. Seattle is going to keep its good housing programme and the like.

  41. I think it’s time Labor and the Greens reminded everyone that the dangerous radicals in this situation are the LNP. In the face of overwhelmingly evidence, they propose useless inaction.

    This is a dangerously radical path they tread, into the unknown, into unpredictability, chaos and disruption.

    Those seeking to reduce emissions are trying to keep our environment exactly as we know it. They are, in the scenario, the conservative ones.

    This is how to disrupt the LNP and shift their support base on the issue.

    And guess what? Capitalism will still exist. Some people will make a shedload of money on renewable industries. Good on them. If some vested interests (who donate to buy these shit policies) aren’t smart enough to join that shift, they lose. And who should pity them? No one. Neither free marketeer, nor socialist should. This process is called “capitalism” by the way – firms that cant compete lose out.

  42. Pegasus says:
    Thursday, November 14, 2019 at 10:09 am
    Australia being recognised

    https://www.theage.com.au/business/markets/sweden-dumps-aussie-bonds-as-country-not-known-for-good-climate-work-20191114-p53agw.html

    Sweden’s central bank has sold off bonds from parts of Australia and the oil-rich Canadian province of Alberta because it felt that greenhouse gas emissions in both countries were too high.

    Riksbank Deputy Governor Martin Floden said on Wednesday the bank would no longer invest in assets from issuers with a large climate footprint, even if the yields were high.

    Another tangible consequence of Green wedge-politics, which have made progress on environmental issues very very difficult to obtain in this country. The Greens have wedged working people and the environment. When will the Greens re-visit their political strategies, which are so comprehensively self-defeating?

  43. ar. You do have a basic understanding of Australia’s electoral system, or is that a false assumption? The system is weighed against these young voters you reckon Labor would fire up “if only” blah blah.

    If these is is great horde of untapped Millenia;s and young voters out there, why haven’t they been sufficiently fired up for the greens to win seats like Lindsay, forde, Robertson, etc etc in a canter? You know – seats that the non LNP side of politics has to win alongside the 70 (68 labor, 1 green and Wilkie) that it currently holds?

    Frankly mate you are talking about an 8 foot Wookie going to live on the moon of Endor. It makes no sense.

  45. lefty e says:
    Thursday, November 14, 2019 at 10:58 am
    I think it’s time Labor and the Greens reminded everyone that the dangerous radicals in this situation are the LNP. In the face of overwhelmingly evidence, they propose useless inaction.

    It’s well past time for Labor to completely disentangle itself from the Greens. From now on Labor should put the Greens next-to-last on its HTVs, making it clear they completely repudiate Green-ware.

  46. AE

    Arguing evidence based policy wins in the long run. Just look at the radical extreme LNP deniers copping it from firefighter experts.

    Stop your house burning down vote Labor has a sense of urgency to it to my mind as a slogan.

  47. a r @ #1939 Thursday, November 14th, 2019 – 10:52 am

    Andrew_Earlwood @ #1933 Thursday, November 14th, 2019 – 9:32 am

    Just all those voters in the outer burbs, and regions who think that keeping coal going is a good idea. … Them. You know, the ‘verboten scum’ that keep returning corrupt and moribund LNP governments. Them.

    I reckon if Labor found the courage to actually campaign hard on the issue and prosecute the argument for why a moratorium on new fossil-fuel projects is the right thing to do (and it’s a really, really easy argument to prosecute) they’d win the next election in a landslide.

    Fire up the young voters and millennials instead of alienating them. It’s better politics. 🙂

    Yes, stop being so scared of your own bloody shadow all the time. If necessary, call out the media, as Jeremy Corbyn is doing.

  49. This should be the theme song for the next LNP party meeting

    Burning Down the House – 2005 Remastered Version
    Talking Heads
    Watch out you might get what you’re after
    Boom babies strange but not a stranger
    I’m an ordinary guy
    Burning down the house
    Hold tight wait till the party’s over
    Hold tight We’re in for nasty weather
    There has got to be a way
    Burning down the house
    Here’s your ticket pack your bag
    Time for jumpin’ overboard
    The transportation is here
    Close enough but not too far
    Maybe you know where you are
    Fightin’ fire with fire
    All wet! Hey you might need a raincoat
    Shakedown! Dreams walking in broad daylight
    Three hun-dred six-ty five de-grees
    Burning down the house
    It was once upon a place sometimes I listen to myself
    Gonna come in first place
    People on their way to work and baby what did you except
    Gonna burst…

  50. ar

    Zuckerberg wanting to be the new Rupert for the RWNJ and Oligarch ‘demographics’ .

    DURING A CONGRESSIONAL hearing on Wednesday, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez asked Mark Zuckerberg about his “ongoing dinner parties with far-right figures.”

    This was terribly unfair to Mark, and Ocasio-Cortez owes him an apology. Yes, as Politico recently reported, he’s been holding lots of private get-togethers with prominent hard-right media figures. According to the article, these include Tucker Carlson of Fox News; talk show host Hugh Hewitt; Ben Shapiro; former Free Beacon editor Matt Continetti; and Brent Bozell, founder of the Media Research Center, which exists “to expose and neutralize the propaganda arm of the Left: the national news media.”
    https://theintercept.com/2019/10/25/mark-zuckerberg-facebook-dinners/

    MARK ZUCKERBERG IS HOLDING PRIVATE DINNERS TO WINE AND DINE CONSERVATIVE PUNDITS
    https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019/10/mark-zuckerberg-dinners-conservatives-facebook-bias-trump

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