Newspoll has turned in a result for its three-weekly federal poll which, if nothing else, shows it’s not letting the May election result prevent it from publishing optimistic-looking numbers for Labor. As related in The Australian ($), the latest poll has the major parties tied on two-party preferred, after four successive results of 51-49 in favour of the Coalition.
The Coalition is down two on the primary vote to 40%, with Labor up two to 35%, the Greens down one to 12% and One Nation up one to 7%. Anthony Albanese enjoys some encouraging movement on personal ratings, with approval up five to 42% and disapproval down seven to 37%. However, Scott Morrison’s ratings are little changed, with approval down one to 46% and disapproval down two to 43%, and his lead as preferred prime minister narrows only marginally, from 47-32 to 46-32.
The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1682.
Ahhhh…entrails time. 🙂
RI @ #1886 Sunday, November 10th, 2019 – 9:50 pm
No, coal price is declining in our traditional markets. Which actually makes it more attractive to several other Asian countries that are therefore expected to make more use of it. The long term consequence is that demand for our thermal coal – which is the one Adani will produce – is expected to increase in the short term, and then either stagnate or increase slightly in the medium to long term.
This was explained in the link that you posted, but apparently failed to understand 🙁
But you don’t need to worry – I am happy to keep pointing this out to you until you get it.
Ha! Hell on Earth can do that to a politician’s popularity.
Though I really want it to stay at 50-50 until the next election, so neither party thinks they are in a winning position. 😀
That’s ominous……..
Now Albanese will win 30+ Newspolls in a row then lose the election!!!
imacca,
I agree with you, Albanese performed well on Insiders this morning. He didn’t fall for any of Fan Kelly’s traps. He also seems to have been taking his liaison with Tim Gartrell in a productive direction, I could detect the changes thus far.
‘Hastening slowly’.
swamprat @ #4 Sunday, November 10th, 2019 – 10:04 pm
That’s why I don’t want it to get above 50-50! 😆
C@t any update on the Albo dirt file?
Wow I’d completely forgotten about Newspoll 😆
Confessions @ #8 Sunday, November 10th, 2019 – 10:06 pm
Easily done! 🙂
It could be well to assume News has overestimated the Labor vote. Until we get an election to measure it against.
IEEFA estimates that the Carmichael coal with a 4,950kcal energy and 26% raw ash content would currently be valued at a 60.5% discount to the Newcastle 6,000kcal benchmark, putting a price of ~US$39.50/t at current spot prices – Figure 4.4. Adani could wash the raw coal and marginally reduce the ash content and boost the energy content of product coal, subject to water availability, but this would significantly increase production costs.
Carmichael coal is estimated to be worth 60% less than the Newcastle 6,000kcal benchmark, which is now at about USD65/mt. That is….Carmichael coal would be worth about USD25-26.00/mt, given falls in the market in the last 12 months…falls that reflect declining demand.
The market for seaborne coal is forecast to decline by 60-odd% by 2040 and is thought to have peaked in the period 2014-2017.
Nath:
Do your own homework – claiming the C@t ate it is the oldest excuse in the book.
RIsays:
Sunday, November 10, 2019 at 9:44 pm
But it will make them feel good.
The Adani Group has expanded into renewable energy development, floating its renewable energy business (Adani Green Energy) on the Bombay Stock Exchange in June 2018. With 3 GW of renewable energy infrastructure in operation, and another 3 GW in planning, it is one of the top 5 corporate investors in Indian renewables. In Australia, Adani announced a 1,500 MW solar investment program across Queensland and South Australia.
As a result, India’s renewable energy installs have more than doubled to 12-15 GW annually, while thermal power installs (net of closures) have dropped 80% to just 4 GW annually vs the 20 GW annual installs evidenced in 2012/13-2015/16
RI @ #11 Sunday, November 10th, 2019 – 10:10 pm
Really? This is what your own link has to say on the matter …
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2019/sep/the-changing-global-market-for-australian-coal.html
But hey – what would the RBA know?
Labor is better at winning polls than actual elections. Still, good to see a move in the right (i.e. Left) direction.
Confessions:
Mrs Thatcher presumably saw the economic opportunity but because of her complete economic illiteracy sought to reserve the benefits to her rentier mates by funding that benefit by an imposition on the state.
The problem with Mrs Thatcher’s policies was always (as it was said) that eventually one runs out of other people’s money to give away…
The market for seaborne coal is glutted, reflecting declining demand even for hard, high calorific value/low ash coal. Lower grade coal trades at a considerable discount to hi kcal product. As demand for hard coal falls, low grade coal will be essentially unmarketable. This is clear as day. Anything built at Carmichael will be classed as a stranded asset well before it could be commissioned.
The workers of QLD are well aware of this. Their problem is the impending liquidation of their industry.
RI @ #19 Sunday, November 10th, 2019 – 10:17 pm
So, tell us again why you support the opening of the Adani coal mine?
And when it comes to conservatives/reactionaries, nothing has really changed.
Player One @ #20 Sunday, November 10th, 2019 – 9:21 pm
Because if pretending to these people like their jobs will be safe (for at least a little while longer) is enough to get them to vote Labor again, that makes it okay. 🙄
a r @ #22 Sunday, November 10th, 2019 – 10:27 pm
I wouldn’t like to think briefly was quite so mercenary. But today it seems that Albanese apparently is, so you may be right 🙁
The RBA guess about the future. They are not inherently better at it than anyone else. Their commentary on Japan, Korea and Taiwan is verified by declines in coal uptake. The RBA is mistaken about India, where coal imports have been falling.
The price of renewably generated electricity in India is 50% less than electricity generated with coal, and plant utilisation rates have been crashing, rendering coal-plant even less able to compete.
The Adani warriors will have to find some other way to save the world, pleasure themselves and assail Labor. Adani cannot do it for them. The thermal coal trade – never very big in the overall scheme of things – is cactus.
Adani will be ‘approved’. It will almost certainly never be developed. And if it is developed, every single dollar put into Adani will be lost. Every dollar.
Carmichael coal is currently worth USD 25-26.00/mt on the global market….nowhere near enough to cover production and rail costs. Within a few years, the notional price for such product will be in the single digits. It is not an economic resource.
I’m opposed to the political exploitation of working people by the Greens….by the chasing of Green herrings…
I remain hopeful that the population is going to collectively realise what a bullshit artist and shonky fraud Morrison is – just as they woke up to Rudd’s inauthenticity. The government has a bare majority and any fall in the polls will make the LNP nervous – there are also many who want the PM job and they’ll start to move on Morrison the moment his honeymoon period is over.
The labor review was diplomatic, but basically confirmed that the electorate wasn’t sure about Shorten and clive’s millions were effective. I don’t the review gave adequate ‘credit’ to the Murdoch media and their unrelenting campaign against Shorten for years.
RI @ #24 Sunday, November 10th, 2019 – 10:34 pm
I can only ask again: So why are you in favor of it? Why do you want it so badly? Why are you so willing to see lives and livelihoods destroyed?
It seems that “a r” may be right. Either that, or you just want to see this happen for some reason. Could it really be just to pay out on the Greens? I hate to think you could be quite so twisted, but actually neither option paints you in a very attractive light, does it?
RI @ #25 Sunday, November 10th, 2019 – 10:35 pm
Well, I guess that answers my question 🙁
Player One:
A perfect illustration of this interminable dispute.
Briefly talking about demand mainly in monetary terms, P1 mainly in volume terms.
The former is significant in general; the latter is significant in the case because the damage is proportional to volume (adjusted for “purity”)
Generally one should follow the demand side money as it will tend to determine the issue in the long term. But as P1 has pointed out there is a huge timing related risk and also considerable evidence of government corruption of the monetary demand. Australia could try to address both risks by invading Indonesia and India and perhaps a few other places (to keep it simple just make it anything beginning with “Ind”, so Indochina would be in the firing line too and wasn’t that great last time round).
Alternatively, both India and Indonesia (and indeed Indochina) are obvious markets for decentralised off-grid electricity, since they are currently much more robust than developed economies against intermittent supply (so would be fine with solar without battery if the unfirmed generation cost is low enough). Some of my ancestors used to (as a private business) generate off-grid electricity for an isolated town on the west coast of South Australia – reliability wasn’t that good (for a large variety of external reasons related mainly to fuel supply) but they kept a town of 500 to 1,000 people running and viable.
50/50 eh?
Can’t read too much into any of those figures including primary votes for all the parties. All within the margin of error and are proof of nothing much at all.
The only move outside the MOE is Albo’s personal figures, which may have mean nothing more than he’s been out and about more.
OK, Newspoll.
Big article in the Tiser tomorrow for Remembrance Day on the push for a Royal Commission into suicides in military people.
One vet a week commits suicide.
Actually I’m also hearing there is a big problem with pet vets committing suicide as well. I think they take barbiturates to do it.
“I can only ask again: So why are you in favor of it?”
FFS P1…………Can you at some stage contemplate NOT being such a mindless fucking blue/green drone and get what passes for a brain in your case around the concept that “not opposing” something is NOT the same as “supporting” something. Pay a bit more respect than taking the “if you not with me your against me” line and people may possibly respect you more here……….although i’m not holding my breath on that.
E. G. Theodoresays:
Sunday, November 10, 2019 at 10:51 pm
Can’t see it working without batteries.
All the off grid places I’ve been to have run their generators from sunset until 9 or 10 o’clock.
This is when the people need the power.
imacca @ #34 Sunday, November 10th, 2019 – 11:23 pm
However the “I don’t support it, but meh” tack doesn’t actually work when going after people in the “I just plain don’t support it” camp as stridently as frequently happens around here.
If your attitude is “meh”, do “meh”.
Adani is a trophy-hunting outing by the Greens. It has nothing to do with the environment or climate change. It is a political exercise, pure and simple.
Player One
The real energy price story isn’t the coal spot price but is between coal vs. renewable energy. On that metric renewable energy is now cheaper than coal in most markets besides a handful of countries. From a brief glance at the RBA graphs, graph 3 shows the rate of renewable energy generation is growing faster than coal generation.
ar…..I didn’t actually mean:
“I don’t support it, but meh” ….i think. perhaps bad phrasing.
I believe Adani should not go ahead. Bad Project and bad outcomes. It’s just, taken on its own, not a die in a ditch issue for me. Sad loss of a battle i reckon but the wider war goes on.
Those who chose for whatever reason to flog themselves and others with the endless and pointlessly repetitive crap about Adani are, I think, mainly helping the Coalition to keep it framed in the public perception as an issue THEY won on and thats all about jobs. Lies and bullshit but very very useful to them.
I find it amazing that Scott Morrison is leading Anthony Albanese by 46-32 in the latest Newspoll. Anyway, I argue that the opinion pollsters should publish the figures for the undecided voters.
@sustainable future
The government even if it loses it’s majority has at least two of the crossbenchers who will guarantee confidence and supply, namely Katter and Steggal. Also with the possibility of Haines and Haines providing confidence and supply as well.
So in reality the government has 81 seats versus Labor’s 70 (including Bandt and Wilkie).
Useless, ignorant minister hits back against criticism of inaction. Most active thing he’s ever done on climate change.
What a blowhard ignoramus Michael McCormack is!
For those starry-eyed bludgers who reckon Norway’s SWF is ‘socialist’….
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/nov/11/norway-set-to-gain-more-from-drilling-in-great-australian-bight-than-australia
The SWF is an instrument for monetising oil and gas and banking the proceeds in New York. The offshore petroleum/gas sector is the source of all the expansion in emissions in Australia, plus some. Were it not for gas, our emissions would be declining. We cannot expand this sector and get to net zero emissions. We should not risk the environment of the Bight and absolutely do not have to. Just as fracking has been essentially foreclosed in WA, so should gas and oil developments in the Bight be prohibited.
I have noticed though, with Frydenburg’s little meme contribution as well, that the Coalition have adopted Trumpy tactics of flat out abusing their political and other opponents. Really low rent stuff.
Oh well, it’s not proving too successful for Trump and it doesn’t seem to be impressing the Australian punters either (50-50).
Bandt and Wilkie are singers in the anti-Labor parliamentary choir. Labor has 68 seats. It needs to win 9 seats from the LNP and would need a swing of 4-5% to have any hope of doing this. In Queensland and WA the swings required are significantly higher than this.
Labor internal tracking pollster, YouGov, comes out swinging:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-failed-to-heed-warnings-that-election-was-on-knife-edge-says-secret-report-20191110-p53968.html
McCormack should leave the Trump bastardry to the pro.
McCormack’s dessicated constituents are frying in hell.
RI @ #43 Monday, November 11th, 2019 – 3:51 am
The SWF may not be Socialist in and of itself, however it pays for genuine Social Democratic programs like universal health care and education that benefit the many (actually the entirety), not the few.
It was also started because Norway decided that Norwegian natural resources belonged to all Norwegians, unlike Australia where around 80% of our resources are controlled by overseas based companies. We have been sold out, and sold out very cheaply.
Sarah Huckabee Sanders is branded as unemployable.