The public release of Craig Emerson and Jay Weatherill’s report into Labor’s federal election campaign has inspired a run of commentary about the way ahead for the party after its third successive defeat, to which nothing need be added here. From the perspective of this website, the following details are of specific interest:
• Labor’s own efforts to use area-based regression modelling to identify demographic characteristics associated with swings against Labor identifies five problem areas: voters aged 25-34 in outer urban or regional areas; Christians; coal mining communities; Chinese Australians; and the state of Queensland. The variable that best explained swings in favour of Labor was higher education. However, as has been discussed here previously, this sort of analysis is prey to the ecological fallacy. On this basis, I am particularly dubious about the report’s suggestion that Labor did not lose votes from beneficiaries of franking credits and negative gearing, based on the fact that affluent areas swung to Labor. There is perhaps more to the corresponding assertion that the Liberals were able to persuade low-income non-beneficiaries that Labor’s policies would “crash the economy and risk their jobs”.
• Among Labor’s campaign research tools was a multi-level regression and post-stratification analysis, such as YouGov used with notable success to predict seat outcomes at the 2017 election in the UK. Presumably the results were less spectacular on this occasion, as the report says it is “arguable that this simply added another data point to a messy picture”. The tracking polling conducted for Labor by YouGov showed a favourable swing of between 0.5% and 1.5% for most of the campaign, and finally proved about three points off the mark. YouGov suggested to Labor the problem may have been in its use of respondents’ reported vote at the 2016 election as a weighting factor, but the error was in line with that of the published polling, which to the best of my knowledge isn’t typically weighted for past vote in Australia.
• An analysis of Clive Palmer’s advertising found that 40% was expressly anti-Labor in the hectic final week, compared with only 10% in the earlier part of the campaign. The report notes that the Palmer onslaught caused Labor’s “share of voice” out of the sum of all campaign advertising fell from around 40% in 2016 to 25%, and fell as low as 10% in “some regional markets such as Townsville and Rockhampton”, which respectively delivered disastrous results for Labor in the seats of Herbert and Capricornia.
• It is noted that the gap between Labor’s House and Senate votes, which has progressively swollen from 1% to 4.6% since 1990, is most pronounced in areas where Labor is particularly strong.
Other news:
• The challenge against the election results in Chisholm and Kooyong has been heard in the Federal Court this week. The highlight of proceedings has been an admission from Simon Frost, acting director of the Liberal Party in Victoria at the time of the election, that the polling booth advertising at the centre of the dispute was “intended to convey the impression” that they were Australian Electoral Commission signage. The Australian Electoral Commission has weighed in against the challenge with surprising vehemence, telling the court that voters clearly understood that anything importuning for a particular party would not be its own work.
• The ABC reports there is a move in the Tasmanian Liberal Party to drop Eric Abetz from his accustomed position at the top of the Senate ticket at the next election to make way for rising youngester Jonathan Duniam. The Liberals won four seats at the 2016 double dissolution, which initially resulted in six-year terms being granted to Eric Abetz and Stephen Parry, and three-year terms to Duniam and David Bushby. However, the recount that followed the dual disqualifications of Jacqui Lambie and Stephen Parry in November 2017 resulted in the party gaining three rather than two six-year terms, leaving one each for Abetz, Duniam and Bushby. Bushby resigned in January and was replaced by his sister, Wendy Askew, who appears likely only to secure third place on the ticket, which has not been a winning proposition for the Liberals at a half-Senate election since 2004.
• Andrew Clennell of The Australian ($) reports that Jim Molan is likely to win a Liberal preselection vote on Saturday to fill Arthur Sinodinos’s New South Wales Senate vacancy. The decisive factor would appear to be support from Scott Morrison and centre right faction powerbroker Alex Hawke, overcoming lingering hostility towards Molan over his campaign to win re-election by exhorting Liberal supporters to vote for him below the line, in defiance of a party ticket that had placed him in the unwinnable fourth position. He is nonetheless facing determined opposition from Richard Shields, Woollahra deputy mayor and Insurance Council of Australia executive, who was runner-up to Dave Sharma in the party’s hotly contested preselection for Wentworth last year.
Greensborough Growler @ #1793 Sunday, November 10th, 2019 – 6:31 pm
He in entitled to his own opinion. That won’t change mine about how disgraceful the comment was, or how disgraceful you are for trying to defend it.
Has Elliott handed himself in to himself yet?
Yep.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/a-local-mayor-can-see-we-face-a-climate-emergency-why-can-t-the-pm-20191110-p5393b.html
Player One @ #1800 Sunday, November 10th, 2019 – 6:37 pm
And we all laughed at you, again
Greensborough Growler @ #1803 Sunday, November 10th, 2019 – 6:41 pm
Go tell someone who cares.
Vote winner!
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/
Here’s another version of events that finally resulted in the Queensland government stripping native title from the Wangan and Jagalingou people, the Traditional Owners of the land in Queensland’s Galilee Basin where Adani wants to build its Carmichael coal mine.
https://www.sbs.com.au/nitv/nitv-news/article/2019/05/16/inside-look-how-adani-dealt-traditional-owners
Player Onesays:
Sunday, November 10, 2019 at 6:37 pm
That you think so just highlights how little you appreciate of cultures that differ from yours.
You are stuck in your own prism unwilling or unable to see outside.
Remembrance day with a difference. A pigeon has used poppies to construct a nest on a ledge inside the tomb of the unknown soldier.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/lubba/49041998537/in/photostream/
Player One @ #1804 Sunday, November 10th, 2019 – 6:43 pm
I did. You!
Boerwar
Fan-bloody-tastic.
“ But who to choose?”
____
@Victoria
For each and every year 2009-2018 that would be Tony Abbott.
There will be a new winner this year though.
Since this is autopsy edition of Bowe’s Blog:
‘Police in Saint Petersburg have arrested a prominent Russian historian on suspicion of murdering a former student after he was hauled out of a river with a backpack containing a woman’s arms, authorities said.’
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/nov/10/womans-arms-found-in-backpack-of-russian-professor
RI @ #1522 Sunday, November 10th, 2019 – 10:07 am
In your own words:
The sad part is that you actually encouraged me to archive that quote from you.
Greensborough Growler @ #1809 Sunday, November 10th, 2019 – 6:46 pm
There are things I care about, but you will probably be surprised to hear that being laughed at by someone with your lack of empathy is not one of them.
No mention of the Greens there.
lizzie
It is a feral Rock Dove and will have to be culled humanely according to ACT building regulations which make it illegal for building managers/owners to host Rock Doves.
Cos diseases, and blocked drain pipes.
Danama Papers @ #1813 Sunday, November 10th, 2019 – 6:49 pm
Ha! I had also archived that one. I was just waiting for an opportune time to trot it out!
No worries – I am sure we will both have many more opportunities.
I believe Jarndyce v Jarndyce stopped when they ran out of money.
Boerwar
Yes, I know they’re “flying rats” but even rats sometimes create beauty.
Some crystals are opaque. Others have a rosy hue.
AE
How was the drinking and jazz? I prefer herbal tea and rock ‘n roll.
How about we hook up over a cuppa and explore what compatibilities we might share.
“ Quoll – if you find the company or discussion here ‘worthless and contemptible’ (dictionary definition of ‘pissant’) why do you come here?”
@Steve: The woke and engaged bohobo never misses an opportunity to sneer their assumed moral and intellectual superiority at others.
What’s bluey the octopus been telling you lately boerwar? have the two of you had any further conversations since his prophecies to you.
Tell us about it……
It’s hard to take seriously anyone who regularly uses the words “woke” in that way and “bohobo”. I had to google them to understand that they mean. Who uses these words? Ordinary citizens in the outer burbs and regional centres?
Pegasus @ #921 Sunday, November 10th, 2019 – 7:07 pm
‘Woke’ is a favourite term in right wing social media circles.
RD
Aaaaah, that explains a great deal.
They rub you up the wrong way Peggie. Good.
BTW, Jazz was fun, but like you I prefer rock n’ roll. I’m not that it goes with herbal tea though. Depends on the herbs I guess.
What era, groups and songs are your thing?
Nick dyrenfurth also calling the end of Labor too!
bring it on and the sooner the better. It will allow us to build a genuine democratic alternative.
Bluey the octopus sent me a text saying pretty much the same thing !
C@tmomma @ #1680 Sunday, November 10th, 2019 – 1:03 pm
I’m no body language expert, but to me he looks pretty chuffed.
Yesterday I made the mistake of reading the comments thread on a piece about the state of the horse racing industry by Patrick Smith in The Australian. Not one commenter in five failed to accuse him of being “woke”.
Danama Papers @ #1814 Sunday, November 10th, 2019 – 5:49 pm
The really sad part is that others can’t work out that RI is opposed to Adani but supports the Qld government approving it. Final approval will be what finally kills off Adani both as a project and as a political issue, because they will have no option but to pack up and go home because the project is nonviable.
The REAL risk is that it will stagger on and an LNP government gets elected in Queensland and gives it a HUGE subsidy so that it actually does go ahead. Labor has repeatedly said it will not provide such a subsidy and the negotiation about royalty payments seems to have failed simply because Adani will not agree to any concessions in the early years of the project being fully recouped later.
Annastacia’s job description is to prevent that LNP government from happening. The delays in approval have largely been due to Adani stringing the process along with the hope of getting either a subsidy or “compensation”. They have done that by delaying providing information required under exiting law and thus preventing a lawful approval.
The apparent lack of ability to understand this analysis by some here severely tempts me to believe that they actually don’t care about Adani going ahead, they simply want to use the issue to bash Labor, but {sarcasm font}I’m sure that could not possibly be the case{/sarcasm font}.
“ Woke’ is a favourite term in right wing social media circles.”
Obama used the term just last week. So, obviously …
When ‘catastrophic’ fire warnings become relatively commonplace, where do fire authorities go from here? Cataclysmic?
Rex
‘What does woke mean?
Woke means being conscious of racial discrimination in society and other forms of oppression and injustice. In mainstream use, woke can also more generally describe someone or something as being “with it.”‘
https://www.dictionary.com/e/slang/woke/
…doesn’t sound very right wing to me…
“ I’m no body language expert, but to me he looks pretty chuffed.”
Most pyros have a weird and gleeful fascination with their handiwork.
Danama Paperssays:
That would be because as a fully trained flim flam ad man he knows the picture is electoral GOLD ! GOLD ! GOLD ! Oh and on his religious front a little frisson of pleasure from the sneak preview of what is in store for the non chosen in the imminent End of Days.
Thank you Ron and Peg – Philip Lawn is making a major contribution to combining ecological economics with the MMT framework. It is a powerful combination for understanding what is going on in the world and what our options are.
AE
That’s true, Obama did.
Your use of those words doesn’t upset me at all. I find it difficult to understand why you think they would.
Similarly, I am not particularly upset when you refer to Greens as the shit under your sole or Labor sole (wtte).
I don’t think you are capable of understanding what upsets me.
zoomster @ #1835 Sunday, November 10th, 2019 – 7:19 pm
The right wing use it as an insult, but if you look at it’s meaning and origins it’s a perfectly valid word. I thought it was wrong of Obama to use it in the off-hand way that he did because it (probably wrongly) appeared to align him with the right.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #929 Sunday, November 10th, 2019 – 7:17 pm
Mark Latham and Sam Newman are other illustrious names who like the term.
From yesterday (?), can’t remember who posted it:
Exactly.
In nearly four decades of voting I have never had the option of a perfect candidate or party or policy suite. Not even close.
The choice on the ballot paper is always a compromise.
Accepting that, and working to maximise the benefit of compromise, is what separates the politically grown-up from the rest.
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Pegasus @ #1559 Sunday, November 10th, 2019 – 12:08 pm
No, pragmatic politics is about making the best compromise possible in the circumstances in order to get the necessary power to implement at least some of your policies, as opposed to none of them.
Because last time I checked – and every other time – you can’t implement much policy from opposition.
How moral is chronic political impotence?
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Andrew_Earlwood @ #1602 Sunday, November 10th, 2019 – 12:53 pm
The Greens failure to move on from undergraduate protest politics has delivered one of the greatest own goals in Oz political history.
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E. G. Theodore @ #1751 Sunday, November 10th, 2019 – 3:53 pm
Yep, I’ll pay that one.
RI’s rhetoric might be a little over the top sometimes, but he is correct that in the broader scheme of environmental issues Adani is just a blip, and that continuing to obsess over it is just increasingly self-defeating.
Frankly, the single most useful thing the Greens could do about Adani is to shut up about it, accept they lost that battle, learn from the experience, and get on with battles they might be able to win.
Like doing what they can to help, or at least not hinder, the re-election of a Labor government in QLD, and hence prevent a whole lot of land clearing.
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lizzie @ #1696 Sunday, November 10th, 2019 – 2:53 pm
Rupert.
Just saying…………..some trolls (Shorten fixated individuals?) here claim Shorten is/was poison for Labor and should quit politics for the “good” of Labor. Meanwhile, “Mr 18%” John Howard, was declared as unelectable by the now, defunct “Bulletin” magazine. Second longest serving Liberal PM…….. And while we are at it, how many attempts did John Curtin have before he became PM? Lots and lots is the answer.
Same trolls come out with the “Labor has no policies and Albo has failed” stuff (already)………………….Meanwhile, Liberals turn over two leaders, and last man standing goes to the election with no policies for about 12 weeks and wins the election (aided by the $60 odd million hate money from Palmer) and the result is proclaimed as a “miracle”.
Action: Ignore the vexatious souls who come here merely to be antagonistic………………
Democracy is great but as one US President was reputed to have said, “Everyone has the right to listened to but not necessarily paid attention to”…………………………….This applies to so many the negative post-sunset crew who come here to give us of their bleak views.
Right. So ‘woke’ is a term people use, regardless of their political affiliation.
lizzie @ #1745 Sunday, November 10th, 2019 – 2:16 pm
Relax Lizzie. We’ve already been informed by a long time Bludger that offering “thoughts and prayers” and dismissing any talk about climate change is hitting all the right notes and will actually increase Morrison’s popularity.
The Bludger who stated this also firmly believes the Royal Commission Into Child Abuse was a waste of time and money, and that the Same Sex Marriage plebiscite was going to be soundly defeated. This rabid right winger also believes himself to be a part of the “sensible centre”.
When ‘catastrophic’ fire warnings become relatively commonplace, where do fire authorities go from here? Cataclysmic?
The ‘Catastrophic’ rating was introduced in the wake of the Victorian Black Saturday fires of 2009. They needed a new level above ‘Extreme’.
Tricot @ #939 Sunday, November 10th, 2019 – 7:28 pm
Serious question.
Can you see Bill Shorten actually winning an election in the future ?
Armageddon.
When ‘catastrophic’ fire warnings become relatively commonplace, where do fire authorities go from here? Cataclysmic?
______
Or “How good id that”?
Morrison and GladysB getting a caning on twitter – but hey, it’s just the woke virtue signalling progressives..