Welcome to the latest instalment of Call of the Board, which probes into every seat result from the May federal election region by region. Earlier instalments covered Sydney, here and here; regional New South Wales; Melbourne; regional Victoria and south-east Queensland. Today we look at the electorates of Queensland outside of Brisbane, the Gold Coast and the Sunshine Coast.
The posts dealing with the big cities have featured colour-coded seat maps and the results of a model estimating how the results would have looked if determined by demographic factors alone. Unfortunately, colour-coding doesn’t get you very far when zooming out to vast and unevenly populated regional terrain, and the model hasn’t proved to be much use in producing plausible results for regional seats, in which elusive factors of local political culture appear to loom large. However, I can at least offer for purposes of comparison Labor two-party estimates derived from the Senate results, potentially offering a pointer to how much candidate factors affected the lower house results.
Seat by seat alphabetically:
Capricornia (LNP 12.4%; 11.7% swing to LNP): Labor held this Rockhampton region seat for all but one term from 1977 to 2013, but history may record that it has now reached a tipping point akin to those that have excluded the party from former regional strongholds including Kennedy (Labor-held for all but two terms from federation to 1966, but only once thereafter), Grey in South Australia (Labor-held for all but one term from 1943 to 1993, but never again since) and Kalgoorlie in Western Australia (Labor-held for all but three terms from 1922 until Graeme Campbell quit the party in 1995, and now divided between the safely conservative seats of O’Connor and Durack). The 11.7% swing to Michelle Landry, who has held the seat since 2013, was the biggest in the country, shading the 11.2% swing to the beloved George Christensen in Dawson. Landry’s primary vote was actually little changed, reflecting the entry of One Nation, who accounted for most of Labor’s 14.3% collapse. The rest came from a halving of the Katter’s Australian Party vote from 7.1% to 3.7% and the absence of Family First.
Dawson (LNP 14.6%; 11.2% swing to LNP): Dawson behaved almost identically in swing terms to its southern neighbour, Capricornia, as voters showed themselves to be a great deal more concerned about Adani and its symbolism than George Christensen’s enthusiasm for life in the Philippines. As in Capricornia, the LNP primary vote was little changed from 2016, but the arrival of One Nation soaked up 13.1% which neatly matched Labor’s 12.5% decline. Katter’s Australian Party held up better here than in Capricornia, their 6.3% being only slightly down on 2016.
Flynn (LNP 8.7%; 7.6% swing to LNP): Labor narrowly won this Gladstone-based seat on its creation at their 2007 high-water mark and sliced the margin back to 1.0% in 2016, but hopes of going one better this time fell foul of the party’s region-wide disaster. The swing in this case was fairly typical of those suffered by Labor outside the immediate range of proposed Adani mine, though in this case One Nation were not a new feature, their 19.6% being slightly higher than their 2016 result. The seat was a bit unusual in that Labor’s score on the two-party Senate estimate was 2.8% stronger than their House result.
Groom (LNP 20.5%; 5.2% swing to LNP): The 5.2% swing to John McVeigh was a bit below the regional Queensland par, despite him being a sophomore of sorts – although he may have arrived in 2016 with a ready-made personal vote due to his background as a state member. Nonetheless, it was sufficient to catapult the seat from fifteenth to second on the national ranking of seats by Coalition-versus-Labor margin, reflecting the narrowing of margins in many blue-ribbon city seats. The 2016 result was remarkable in that Family First polled 10.0% in the absence of right-wing minor party competition – this time the newly arrived One Nation polled 13.1% in their absence. The LNP primary vote was little changed and Labor was down 3.5%, the rest of the swing bespeaking a more right-wing minor party preference pool.
Herbert (LNP GAIN 8.4%; 8.4% swing to LNP): Labor’s most marginal seat pre-election, following Labor member Cathy O’Toole’s 37 vote win in 2016, the Townsville seat of Herbert was one of five seats across the country and two in Queensland that were gained by the Coalition (balanced to an extent by Labor’s gains in Gilmore and, with help from redistribution, Corangamite and Dunkley). While the swing was lower than in the Adani epicentre electorates of Dawson and Capricornia immediately to the south, it was sufficient to produce the most decisive result the seat has seen since 1954. O’Toole’s primary vote was down 5.0% to 25.5%, while LNP victor Phillip Thompson added 1.6% to the party’s 2016 result to score 37.1%. High-profile Palmer candidate Greg Dowling did relatively well in polling 5.7%, and One Nation were down from 13.5% to 11.1%.
Hinkler (LNP 14.5%; 6.1% swing to LNP): Keith Pitt, who has held this Bundaberg-based seat since 2013, picked up a swing well in line with the regional Queensland norm. He was up 2.2% on the primary vote, while Labor was down 3.8%; One Nation fell from 19.2% to 14.8%, mostly due to an expansion in the field from seven candidates to ten, including three independents, none of whom did particularly well individually.
Kennedy (KAP 13.3% versus LNP; 2.3% swing to KAP): Bob Katter had a near death experience at the 2013 election, at which time he was presumably tarred with the minority government brush despite being the only cross-bencher who backed the Coalition after the inconclusive 2010 result. However, he’s roared back to dominance since, picking up successive two-party swings of 8.9% and 2.3%, and primary vote swings of 10.5% and 2.6%. On the latter count at least, he’s been assisted by the fact that One Nation have declined to challenge him. In Coalition-versus-Labor terms, the seat participated in the regional Queensland trend in swinging 7.8% against Labor.
Leichhardt (LNP 4.2%; 0.2% swing to LNP): The negligible swing in favour of LNP veteran Warren Entsch was an exception to the regional Queensland rule, and was generally attributed to the centrality of tourism to the economy of Cairns, giving the region a very different outlook on issues like Adani. The result was generally status quo in all respects, but the seat had the distinction of being one of only three in the state where the Labor primary vote very slightly increased, along with Ryan and Fairfax. With Entsch’s primary vote down slightly, the two-party swing, such as it was, came down to an improved flow of preferences.
Maranoa (LNP 22.5% versus One Nation; 6.6% swing to LNP): For the second election in a row, Maranoa emerged with the distinction of being the only seat in the country where One Nation made the final preference count. One Nation and Labor were down on the primary vote by 3.2% and 2.7% respectively; at the last preference exclusion, One Nation led Labor 21.3% to 19.0%, compared with 23.6% to 22.9% in 2016. The other story here was the strong sophomore showing for David Littleproud, who was up 6.8% on the primary vote and by similar amounts on two-party preferred against both One Nation and Labor. The 25.4% margin versus Labor is now by some distance the biggest in the country, compared with the electorate’s ninth ranking on this score in 2016. Equally impressive for Littleproud is the distinction between his 25.4% margin and the 20.4% recorded by the two-party Senate measure.
Wide Bay (LNP 13.1%; 5.0% swing to LNP): Llew O’Brien may also have enjoyed a sophomore effect after succeeding Warren Truss in 2016, as his primary vote was up 3.2% while One Nation fell from 15.6% to 10.8%. However, the Labor primary vote held up unusually well, and the two-party swing was at the lower end of the regional Queensland scale.
Wright (LNP 14.6%; 5.0% swing to LNP): So far as the major parties were concerned, the result here was typical of regional Queensland, with LNP member Scott Buchholz up 3.1% on the primary vote and Labor down 4.0%. Independent Innes Larkin, who appears to have made his name locally campaigning against coal seam gas, scored a respectable 5.3%, which presumably helps explains the drop in the One Nation vote from 21.8% to 14.0%.
“Found this infographic of per capita alcohol consumption by country by type. I had no idea Australians were such huge drinkers!”
***
…including our federal politicians, I might add. The amount of alcohol that is consumed in Parliament House is obscene.
It does look like Boris will get his way with a pre-Christmas election. He just needs to get through a one-off tweak to tye fixed term law (as would any future PM who wants an early election).
If I were British I think would try as best I can to vote strategically against Brexit. I think that would mean voting for whichever non-Tory non-Brexit candidate in my seat I judged to have the best chance of winning.
I have a motto that speaks directly to alcohol consumption:
‘Loose lips sink ships.’
If Boris Johnson gets his early election victory he will use his majority numbers to enact a No Deal Brexit and all the ruinous consequences that will follow that.
phoenixRed:
Trump himself has confirmed much of his corrupt conduct, even bragging about it. The public release will of testimony to date will just sour voters even further against him.
Morrison and Howard are backing Molan for the Senate. Do we need another RW dumbo in the Senate?
Fucking hell the Democrats and the left-wing fake-news media truly are politically hopeless.
That’s right. Respect and pay lip-service to the criminal bastard who’s trashing the country, because if you don’t then he wins even more. 🙄
If Obama did 10% of the dodgy shit Trump does Republicans would have been screaming bloody murder at sporting events, in the streets, and everywhere else. He didn’t do 10% of the dodgy shit Trump does and Republicans did that anyways.
The UK shitshow continues…..
“An early election looms — but when?
UK lawmakers rejected the government’s proposal on Monday, but an early election is nevertheless looking increasingly likely.
Two very similar short bills will be introduced in Parliament in the coming days, both seeking to lock down an early vote: One proposal for a December 12 election, will be laid down by the government. Another proposal for a December 9 election has been announced by the Liberal Democrats and the SNP.
Both are designed to skirt the current election law, which requires a supermajority of two-thirds in Parliament to approve an early election. But like any other legislation, these bills will be subjects to possible amendments, which could pose new political risks.”
lizzie @ #706 Tuesday, October 29th, 2019 – 9:23 am
Could be worse ❓ 😈
a r:
https://www.okayplayer.com/news/obama-booed-at-nfl-games-across-the-league-during-911-tribute.html
Yeah funny that, not….
Mark Follman
@markfollman
California is in the midst of a wildfire disaster from top to bottom. President Trump hasn’t so much as uttered a word about it, despite that millions of people are suffering. How is that in any way defensible in an American president?
“The Market” has no conscience.
Good Morning
In Case PR has not posted
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/north-carolina-gerrymandering-new-maps-for-2020-ordered-by-judges-today-in-partisan-gerrymandering-case/
Huge trouble for the GOP.
lizzie
There is no Australian commodity that is closed to foreign investment.
So, water is the same as everything else.
Australia has always depended on foreign investment to grow its economy.
These same Australian farmers, who are now essentially seeking special protected species status in the water market to go with their copious taxpayer subsidies, were quite happy to see thousands of car manufacturing workers lose their jobs.
Victoria:
I’ve seen comments from Trump blaming Californians for voting Democrat as to why they’re experiencing wildfires, but I feel these are from a couple of years ago. Not recent.
Victoria
To get a simple vote through for a general election Labour can have amendments attached to the bill: have preferential or as the Americans call it ranked choice voting; lowering the voting age to 16.
If the Tories vote for that I will be surprised
Boerwar
So the economy grows and the land dies? Brilliant!
It’s why I don’t buy Almond ‘Milk’.
C@t
Well said. It also tastes horrible!
Hopefully this means Labor can oppose Adani and the opening up of the carbon bomb. Accusations about stopping job creation will just not work.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/oct/29/anthony-albanese-recasts-labors-climate-policy-to-make-it-all-about-jobs
lizzie –
That tweet you quoted doesn’t indicate that that’s the trade-off.
ie the same water will be taken for farming, just that those pesky fur’ners are buying it instead of our valiant Aussie (oi oi oi) farmers.
Jackol
The problem with that is that the ‘pesky fur’ners’ send their profits offshore, which surely negates the advantage to the economy.
And today I read that our ‘hero’ Antony Pratt pays no income tax. A home-grown investor, lauded by Morrison.
https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2019/november/1572526800/don-watson/revolutions-past
How do you people know when to switch your comments to a new posting? Is it simply that you look for William’s name on a post or is it more of an unexplainable herd mentality kind of thing?
Bellwether:
William usually leaves a link to the new post in the comments of the old one.
William
as your name has come up. There is a new upgrade for WordPress if you missed it.
Bellwether @ #724 Tuesday, October 29th, 2019 – 10:39 am
Look at the top right-hand corner of the blog under, ‘Contact the Poll Bludger’, there you will find a list of ‘Recent Posts’, which are linkable. Just click on the link of the latest one.
The general rule is the most recent post that’s broadly about Australian Federal politics is the one to use for general discussions.
Other posts are supposed to be kept on-topic.
lizzie @ #719 Tuesday, October 29th, 2019 – 10:18 am
It has been well marketed to the Hipsters though. 😉
@jonkudelka
·
15m
Making fancy keyrings is considerably more productive than being mean to politicians who are probably just as unhappy with the talking points as everyone else. Be the owl. The owl has the key.
Owls don’t usually wear a smile, this one does. Perhaps kudelka is climbing out of his depression.
lizzie @ #719 Tuesday, October 29th, 2019 – 10:18 am
You might think it tastes like Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s undies but some actually like it’s taste, as they do with almonds themselves and the roasted variety especially. Notwithstanding any issues there may be with water usage.
Some science on drinking dairy milk. Don’t feel bad.
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20190218-when-did-humans-start-drinking-cows-milk
Bellwether
I’ve nothing against almonds themselves. They’re very healthy, etc, etc, but making coffee with
almond ‘milk’? A friend of mine, who avoids gluten and has a very restricted diet, was determined to swap to a nut milk and it took her a week of dedication to get used to the taste. She managed it, but it took a lot of effort.
guytaur says:
Tuesday, October 29, 2019 at 10:26 am
Hopefully this means Labor can oppose Adani
Labor will not adopt Green policy. The best thing Labor can do is approve Adani. This will make it very clear they do not tote Greenware.
RI
I said nothing about Green policy. Or politics.
On twitter a lot are assuming traditional industries means Adani will be opened despite the water problems.
The article is clear. Albanese is keeping Labor’s Green policies, not junking them.
lizzie @ #733 Tuesday, October 29th, 2019 – 10:59 am
I’m not a big fan of almond milk in coffee, old habits die hard. But I do like it in muesli or as the basis of a nutri-bullet smoothie. Although I’m following the debate on the negative environmental issues in it’s production with interest, just as with dairy and the cattle industry more broadly. If you follow the trail most of these issues inevitably relate back to a problem with over-population.
Almonds aren’t especially thirsty, once the trees are mature with deep roots. They’re certainly a hell of a lot less thirsty than rice or cotton.
The problem I have with diverting scarce water to almond production is they’re essentially a luxury food. Nobody will starve for lack of them, nobody will go unclothed without them, so surely that water could be put to better use – such as the environment, for example.
And before anyone points out that almonds would be a lot more expensive if we stopped irrigation to grow them, I’ll supply my answer. It’s, “So what?”
Bellwether
In some circles, over-population is a naughty word. But apparently it leads to endless growth, which is a Good Thing.
Leaving Labor for the Greens
Ellen Sandell
I remember the day I lost faith in the Labor Party.
It was the start of the school year in 2008 and a blistering 37 degrees.
I was a young, optimistic climate change policy advisor, working in my dream job in Labor Premier John Brumby’s Department. For months, I had been working on a policy to put solar panels on every Victorian school, passionately putting in the hours to create something I believed would have a huge impact on our climate.
As I got ready for work one morning, I turned on talkback radio for background noise. My ears pricked up as parents started calling the radio, complaining their kids had to go to school on such a hot day when most classrooms didn’t have air conditioners, but I didn’t think much of it as I got on my bike and rode into work.
As I walked down the corridor towards my desk, still in my riding clothes and brushing sweat off my brow, I saw a piece of paper on my desk: a note from the Premier. I can’t remember the exact wording of that fateful note, but, in so many words, it said: ‘You know the solar panels idea? How much would it cost to put air conditioners in every Victorian school instead?’
I was crestfallen. This 180-degree-turn on policy from the Premier – from reducing pollution with solar panels to increasing energy use with air conditioners – was devastating for a young, idealistic climate advisor. All it took was a handful of parents calling talkback radio and the Premier changed his mind in an instant.
http://books.publishing.monash.edu/apps/bookworm/view/How+to+Vote+Progressive+in+Australia%3A+Labor+or+Green%3F/190/Chapter3.html
Lizzie
The problem with population sustainability arguments is the neo nazi or extreme right trying to use them as a vehicle for racism which leads to arguing about boat arrivals.
lizzie @ #738 Tuesday, October 29th, 2019 – 11:15 am
I’m trying to think of any circles where over-population is considered a desirable thing.
Inside the fortress enclaves of the 1%, perhaps?
Ante Meridian,
I have the same attitude to Blueberries. Why destroy the environment to make them ever cheaper!?!
Property developers love ever-increasing population. And all they have to do to win any argument on the subject is play the race card.
RI @ #639 Monday, October 28th, 2019 – 11:55 pm
Thank you so much. Your high level expertise in this area, proven on a daily basis on this blog, means that your opinion is highly valued.
AM
Yes. And the extreme right has jumped on with gusto.
Dick Smith started off talking sustainable population which was seen as a green lefty point of view and ended up being seen as being part of the right.
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/dick-smith-s-immigration-ad-backs-one-nation-s-racist-agenda-fecca
I was watching a show on garden design the other night, and one of the presenters (probably one of the Quiet Australians) kept quoting Dorothea Mackellar. Probably a fan of Macca, too.
Forget about Adani. Done and dusted. The only people still clinging to it as a issue are the greens and other real world denialists.
What labor needs to do is wrap climate/ environment, renewerable energy etc etc policies in a package stamped with jobs, job security, wages and economic growth and push that package day after day.
Forget about “ feel good” totem issues such as Adani and concentrate on real solutions for the real problems that are hurting real Australians in the real world. Lack of secure work. Lack of a job to start with. Being forced to work two and three jobs just to pay the bills. No wage increase for years and not much chance in the near future. These are the issues. Not Adani.
Hopefully Albanese and labor will start down that road today.
If labor listened to the advice from greens and others and just press on with what they took to the election in the hope that “ explaining it better” will work then a PV of 33.34% will be seen as a high point for labor in coming years.
C@t
I’m eating sweet blueberries and cream cheese for lunch, and now I feel guilty.
Closure of Adani on the spurious grounds advanced by the Greens is Green policy. It is not Labor policy. Albo’s messages on jobs are anything but Greenware.
OK. All the Greens are agreed then:
1. Ban growing almonds.
2. Ban eating almonds.
3. Ban almond milk.
4. Ban exporting almonds.
Yet another regional industry sorted.