Welcome to the latest instalment of Call of the Board, which probes into every seat result from the May federal election region by region. Earlier instalments covered Sydney, here and here; regional New South Wales; Melbourne; regional Victoria and south-east Queensland. Today we look at the electorates of Queensland outside of Brisbane, the Gold Coast and the Sunshine Coast.
The posts dealing with the big cities have featured colour-coded seat maps and the results of a model estimating how the results would have looked if determined by demographic factors alone. Unfortunately, colour-coding doesn’t get you very far when zooming out to vast and unevenly populated regional terrain, and the model hasn’t proved to be much use in producing plausible results for regional seats, in which elusive factors of local political culture appear to loom large. However, I can at least offer for purposes of comparison Labor two-party estimates derived from the Senate results, potentially offering a pointer to how much candidate factors affected the lower house results.
Seat by seat alphabetically:
Capricornia (LNP 12.4%; 11.7% swing to LNP): Labor held this Rockhampton region seat for all but one term from 1977 to 2013, but history may record that it has now reached a tipping point akin to those that have excluded the party from former regional strongholds including Kennedy (Labor-held for all but two terms from federation to 1966, but only once thereafter), Grey in South Australia (Labor-held for all but one term from 1943 to 1993, but never again since) and Kalgoorlie in Western Australia (Labor-held for all but three terms from 1922 until Graeme Campbell quit the party in 1995, and now divided between the safely conservative seats of O’Connor and Durack). The 11.7% swing to Michelle Landry, who has held the seat since 2013, was the biggest in the country, shading the 11.2% swing to the beloved George Christensen in Dawson. Landry’s primary vote was actually little changed, reflecting the entry of One Nation, who accounted for most of Labor’s 14.3% collapse. The rest came from a halving of the Katter’s Australian Party vote from 7.1% to 3.7% and the absence of Family First.
Dawson (LNP 14.6%; 11.2% swing to LNP): Dawson behaved almost identically in swing terms to its southern neighbour, Capricornia, as voters showed themselves to be a great deal more concerned about Adani and its symbolism than George Christensen’s enthusiasm for life in the Philippines. As in Capricornia, the LNP primary vote was little changed from 2016, but the arrival of One Nation soaked up 13.1% which neatly matched Labor’s 12.5% decline. Katter’s Australian Party held up better here than in Capricornia, their 6.3% being only slightly down on 2016.
Flynn (LNP 8.7%; 7.6% swing to LNP): Labor narrowly won this Gladstone-based seat on its creation at their 2007 high-water mark and sliced the margin back to 1.0% in 2016, but hopes of going one better this time fell foul of the party’s region-wide disaster. The swing in this case was fairly typical of those suffered by Labor outside the immediate range of proposed Adani mine, though in this case One Nation were not a new feature, their 19.6% being slightly higher than their 2016 result. The seat was a bit unusual in that Labor’s score on the two-party Senate estimate was 2.8% stronger than their House result.
Groom (LNP 20.5%; 5.2% swing to LNP): The 5.2% swing to John McVeigh was a bit below the regional Queensland par, despite him being a sophomore of sorts – although he may have arrived in 2016 with a ready-made personal vote due to his background as a state member. Nonetheless, it was sufficient to catapult the seat from fifteenth to second on the national ranking of seats by Coalition-versus-Labor margin, reflecting the narrowing of margins in many blue-ribbon city seats. The 2016 result was remarkable in that Family First polled 10.0% in the absence of right-wing minor party competition – this time the newly arrived One Nation polled 13.1% in their absence. The LNP primary vote was little changed and Labor was down 3.5%, the rest of the swing bespeaking a more right-wing minor party preference pool.
Herbert (LNP GAIN 8.4%; 8.4% swing to LNP): Labor’s most marginal seat pre-election, following Labor member Cathy O’Toole’s 37 vote win in 2016, the Townsville seat of Herbert was one of five seats across the country and two in Queensland that were gained by the Coalition (balanced to an extent by Labor’s gains in Gilmore and, with help from redistribution, Corangamite and Dunkley). While the swing was lower than in the Adani epicentre electorates of Dawson and Capricornia immediately to the south, it was sufficient to produce the most decisive result the seat has seen since 1954. O’Toole’s primary vote was down 5.0% to 25.5%, while LNP victor Phillip Thompson added 1.6% to the party’s 2016 result to score 37.1%. High-profile Palmer candidate Greg Dowling did relatively well in polling 5.7%, and One Nation were down from 13.5% to 11.1%.
Hinkler (LNP 14.5%; 6.1% swing to LNP): Keith Pitt, who has held this Bundaberg-based seat since 2013, picked up a swing well in line with the regional Queensland norm. He was up 2.2% on the primary vote, while Labor was down 3.8%; One Nation fell from 19.2% to 14.8%, mostly due to an expansion in the field from seven candidates to ten, including three independents, none of whom did particularly well individually.
Kennedy (KAP 13.3% versus LNP; 2.3% swing to KAP): Bob Katter had a near death experience at the 2013 election, at which time he was presumably tarred with the minority government brush despite being the only cross-bencher who backed the Coalition after the inconclusive 2010 result. However, he’s roared back to dominance since, picking up successive two-party swings of 8.9% and 2.3%, and primary vote swings of 10.5% and 2.6%. On the latter count at least, he’s been assisted by the fact that One Nation have declined to challenge him. In Coalition-versus-Labor terms, the seat participated in the regional Queensland trend in swinging 7.8% against Labor.
Leichhardt (LNP 4.2%; 0.2% swing to LNP): The negligible swing in favour of LNP veteran Warren Entsch was an exception to the regional Queensland rule, and was generally attributed to the centrality of tourism to the economy of Cairns, giving the region a very different outlook on issues like Adani. The result was generally status quo in all respects, but the seat had the distinction of being one of only three in the state where the Labor primary vote very slightly increased, along with Ryan and Fairfax. With Entsch’s primary vote down slightly, the two-party swing, such as it was, came down to an improved flow of preferences.
Maranoa (LNP 22.5% versus One Nation; 6.6% swing to LNP): For the second election in a row, Maranoa emerged with the distinction of being the only seat in the country where One Nation made the final preference count. One Nation and Labor were down on the primary vote by 3.2% and 2.7% respectively; at the last preference exclusion, One Nation led Labor 21.3% to 19.0%, compared with 23.6% to 22.9% in 2016. The other story here was the strong sophomore showing for David Littleproud, who was up 6.8% on the primary vote and by similar amounts on two-party preferred against both One Nation and Labor. The 25.4% margin versus Labor is now by some distance the biggest in the country, compared with the electorate’s ninth ranking on this score in 2016. Equally impressive for Littleproud is the distinction between his 25.4% margin and the 20.4% recorded by the two-party Senate measure.
Wide Bay (LNP 13.1%; 5.0% swing to LNP): Llew O’Brien may also have enjoyed a sophomore effect after succeeding Warren Truss in 2016, as his primary vote was up 3.2% while One Nation fell from 15.6% to 10.8%. However, the Labor primary vote held up unusually well, and the two-party swing was at the lower end of the regional Queensland scale.
Wright (LNP 14.6%; 5.0% swing to LNP): So far as the major parties were concerned, the result here was typical of regional Queensland, with LNP member Scott Buchholz up 3.1% on the primary vote and Labor down 4.0%. Independent Innes Larkin, who appears to have made his name locally campaigning against coal seam gas, scored a respectable 5.3%, which presumably helps explains the drop in the One Nation vote from 21.8% to 14.0%.
ajm
I think that’s right. In my working life I was far too busy to think about what money was. I was too focussed on keeping my job and paying the bills. It nagged me that I fundamentally didn’t know what money is, where for instance does it come from, but it was a secondary issue at best. All I needed to understand was that if I spend more than I have I will be in trouble very quickly.
In my retirement I have looked into MMT and it, what little I understand of it, is logically coherent and makes sense. But I had to take the time to search and read. My reading of competing theories have left me floundering in complexity and with more questions than before I started. It was almost as if the other theories were deliberately obscure or written by someone regurgitating without understanding.
I agree with your assessment. Words matter. Some are tainted. Some are misleading. They must be chosen carefully.
I wonder if he would’ve announced this if there was an LNP state government in Qld? Likewise with plugging Tas into Victoria.
https://twitter.com/10NewsFirst/status/1188705590798946304
https://www.themandarin.com.au/118953-the-leak-that-wasnt-department-admits-erroneous-referral-to-federal-police/
EU has agreed to extend Brexit to 31 January: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/oct/28/boris-johnsons-election-vote-looms-as-eu-decides-on-brexit-delay-politics-live
Who would have thunk it? Dotard lied and over dramatised the ISIS leader killing…
‘
Footage of the US special forces raid on Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s Syrian compound reportedly consisted of overhead surveillance footage and no audio, prompting questions over the extent of the dramatic licence taken by Donald Trump in describing the final moments of one of the most wanted terrorists in the world.
US officials who also watched the feed have declined to echo details of Trump’s macabre account of the Isis’s leader death on Saturday, including that Baghdadi was “whimpering, crying and screaming all the way”.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/oct/28/doubts-over-trump-dramatic-account-baghdadi-raid
There are so many people gunning for Dotard; the media, the military, every one he has sacked, the NeverTrump Republicans, everyone he has insulted, everyone he has stiffed, the crowd at the baseball game, the Democrats, John Bolton…. and most everyone of the Whitehouse who are leaking like a sieve.
People don’t need to know the intricacies of the internal accounting arrangements of central governments, but the basic concepts that a currency issuer doesn’t face a financial constraint when spending its own currency, that all currency issuer spending creates new dollars, that taxes delete dollars, that the issue is real resources rather than money is not difficult to grasp. It is, however, very difficult to bring about this change in understanding when nearly all economists spread falsehoods about the monetary system, and journalists and politicians follow suit. People don’t know what they don’t know. When they start consistently hearing the truth from multiple sources, it becomes a lot easier to absorb.
MMT is on the verge of breaking through into mainstream understanding. It will probably take another two years or so before MMT economists are pushing against an open door. Public servants in the Department of PM&C and Treasury already get it. Academic economists don’t get it. Politicians don’t get it yet. Nor do journalists. Therefore the public is in the dark. But that will change in the next few years.
Sprocket how’s that hard hitting Labor attack on Taylor going for you?
Lars, do you also support Jim Molan for the vacant NSW Senate spot? He has Alan Jones in his corner, and the Lying Rodent.
I reckon Lars is in the camp of another Senator wannabe – Peter Hendy, who has garnered support from Liberal Party grandees like John Fahey and Alexander Downer.
Molan and Hendy fighting for the red leather upholstery. Isn’t it grand!
adrian says:
Monday, October 28, 2019 at 7:17 pm
RI @ #583 Monday, October 28th, 2019 – 7:09 pm
guytaur says:
Sunday, October 27, 2019 at 10:40 pm
RI
You need to relearn how to win without throwing out Labor values.
You are hostile to Labor and in no position to advise Labor what their values were, are or should be.
Your attitude is an impediment to Labor ever forming government.
And I am a Labor member.
The Greens have no skin in the game for Labor success. They are not our allies. They are among our opponents. They campaign full-time against Labor and plot for Labor’s defeat.
We should not be taking too much notice of those who hope for Labor failure. If they think there is some heavy lifting to do…well, let them bend their own backs. We owe our attention to voters rather than to our detractors.
itsthevibe says:
Monday, October 28, 2019 at 7:51 pm
If you’re not a paid-up ALP member, then you are, by definition, anti-Labor scum, and thus have no right to criticise them.
If you’re a member, then you have a duty to show unwavering commitment to the leader and to any and all official party positions… and thus have no right to criticise them.
I have not made any such assertion. What I assert is that Labor do not owe their attention to those who wish us ill. Labor should listen to voters…to those whom we might persuade to support us. The Greens detest Labor. We should ignore them and in particular we should refuse to become merchants of their Greenware.
Senate Republicans are starting to understand that impeachment shit is about to get real for them, putting them in a very uncomfortable position of having to back a traitor and a corrupt madman against their oath of office to uphold the constitution and the laws of the country. Or alternatively vote to convict Trump and face MAGA wrath.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/it-feels-like-a-horror-movie-republicans-feel-anxious-and-adrift-defending-trump/2019/10/28/b4510698-f75f-11e9-a285-882a8e386a96_story.html
A couple of years old but funny nevertheless
https://www.tulsaworld.com/opinion/columnists/bruce-plante-cartoon-boris-and-natasha/article_f490097a-56db-5da7-a34d-32f24200e377.html
This is who Donald Trump reminds me of:
When news broke of Gough Whitlam’s death in October 2014, the Greens were quick to respond with a tribute message, proclaiming, ‘we are proud to be the party that takes up where Gough Whitlam left off.’ So enthusiastic was Greens Senator Lee Rhiannon to share her admiration for Gough that she posted an image of him accompanied by her own party’s logo…
In his new book, Whitlam’s Children, Labor and the Greens in Australia, Shaun Crowe offers the thought-provoking suggestion that this ostensibly petty squabble is emblematic of deeper questions facing the Australian left. Which party is the rightful claimant to the Whitlam legacy?
https://overland.org.au/2018/10/goughs-squabbling-children-will-labor-and-the-greens-learn-to-live-together/
Taylor – Another failed Labor attack! This crowd couldn’t punch their way out of a wet paper bag!
The article also mentions Joni Ernst in Iowa and Martha McSally in Arizona as Republican Senators facing tough re-election gigs next year.
RI @ #612 Monday, October 28th, 2019 – 6:46 pm
Unless they live in a rural Queensland electorate.
So, not rural Queensland residents.
But apparently not to people who have voted for Labor all their adult lives, and want to vote for them in the future, rather than “might be persuaded to vote for us”.
So the plan is:
1) Bend over backwards to accommodate the “aspirations” of rural Queenslanders;
2) Don’t listen to them, because they’ll never vote for Labor anyway.
3) Ignore everyone else who doesn’t live in rural Queensland, including “the base”.
Yep, sounds like a winning strategy to …..
…. anyone?
Danama…
In particular, we have to quit the Greenware. You can put any inflection on it you like. Our focus has to be the voters. We owe our existence to them, and not to the Greens. Even though they seem to think we are part of their franchise, we’re not. The more we can do to distinguish ourselves from the Greens the better.
Danama……..you can sneer at the voters of Queensland as much as you like. They will vote the way they see fit. From my point of view, they are to be respected as much as any other voters.
What I find hard to understand is how stupid could Taylor have been to think those CoS travel expenses were even remotely a reality. That alone should get him the sack.
mikehilliard
says:
Monday, October 28, 2019 at 10:51 pm
What I find hard to understand is how stupid could Taylor have been to think those CoS travel expenses were even remotely a reality. That alone should get him the sack.
__________________________________
I think he or his staff have been talking about Moore’s trip to Paris and decided to be a bit smart with the whole air travel/climate change game. They have looked at the figures and just assumed that it was 14 million, because the real number, 1k, just seemed more improbable than 14m considering the Paris trip. Although I can’t work out why they didn’t at least assume the 1k meant 1 million. where the 4 came from in all this is really weird.
RI
says:
Monday, October 28, 2019 at 10:44 pm
Danama……..you can sneer at the voters of Queensland as much as you like. They will vote the way they see fit. From my point of view, they are to be respected as much as any other voters.
________________________
Every effort should be made to encourage the secession of Queensland and WA. We will accept refugees.
RI @ #621 Monday, October 28th, 2019 – 7:44 pm
Thanks. Don’t mind if I do.
Except Greens voters of course. Despite the fact that many of them used to be Labor voters.
Anyways, could you explain to me please, what happens if Labor does “win” the votes of these people who have never voted Labor, hate the Greens more than you do, and voted for Hanson’s or Palmer’s mob in May. Exactly what sort of “progressive agenda” will Labor be able to implement in government that doesn’t alienate all these newly won voters, or will they be forced to appeal to them in perpetuity?
Follow up question:
How many of these votes does Labor need to win in order to counteract the Labor voters who will have been alienated in order to win the rural Queensland voters?
If QLD and WA had seceded last year, the 2019 election would have produced this result:
ALP 57 seats
Coalition 43
GRNS 1
IND 4
Easily comfortable majority ALP government.
Hell. Even Latham might have come close in 2004 🙂
D P
Some of those people in rural and regional Queensland must have previously supported the ALP otherwise just how has the ALP come to dominate at state level since the 1990s with much of that dominates coming from winning seats around Rockhampton, Townsville, Cairns, MacKay and before the hospital issues Bundaberg.
RI @ #619 Monday, October 28th, 2019 – 9:42 pm
You’re putting it together backwards. A political party’s focus has to be policies it believes in and can prosecute to the electorate. It has to sell its ideas as best and as forcefully as it can, and the voters either go to it or they don’t.
When your only firm policy is “we’ll do whatever you want, if only you vote for us” failure is the likely outcome. People vote for leadership. Unprincipled vote-chasing isn’t.
a r
Yes it does come back to policies, lets take a big issue in the last NSW state election and the main issue on QandA of water management, maybe the ALP needed an actual policy instead of being bogged down on populist issues like targets or some class crap.
Mexicanbeemer
says:
Monday, October 28, 2019 at 11:30 pm
D P
Some of those people in rural and regional Queensland must have previously supported the ALP otherwise just how has the ALP come to dominate at state level since the 1990s with much of that dominates coming from winning seats around Rockhampton, Townsville, Cairns, MacKay and before the hospital issues Bundaberg.
______________________________
How many times have the ALP won the Federal 2pp vote in QLD in the past 50 years? Is it once or twice, both times by a whisker I think.
Wasn’t the NSW state election all about sports stadiums or some such nonsense? Instead of yes, legitimate scandals like the Libs’ water mismanagement and how to fix it.
And that aboriginal guy on Q&A was awesome.
Nath
It is differently true that the ALP hasn’t done as well federally than at state level which is something that no one seems to understand why.
a r
Yes but the Nats were hammered in places over water management. It would have been interesting had the Shooters been able to run a proper federal campaign but didn’t have enough time to recover from the state campaign.
Mexicanbeemer
says:
Monday, October 28, 2019 at 11:45 pm
Nath
It is differently true that the ALP hasn’t done as well federally than at state level which is something that no one seems to understand why.
_____________________________
My view. They might be persuaded to vote for a QLD premier. But elect an ALP southerner as PM. No way.
Although Hawke did ok up there. Anyone got a Hawkie around?
Someone has quite handily provided state seat breakdowns for all the Federal election pages at Wikipedia.
Nath
The other thing is that the state electorates are about a quarter of the population size of a federal electorate. (please excuse for not checking)
adrian says:
Monday, October 28, 2019 at 11:40 am
Good article from Sean Kelly, former advisor to Rudd and Gillard:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/there-s-a-surefire-way-for-labor-to-lose-the-next-election-20191027-p534km.html
Labor will always scare voters. It represents change, and therefore risk. The fear can be minimised, but it can never be erased. For Labor to triumph, that fear must be overpowered by excitement. And that is a hard ask – partly because you won’t excite voters by just giving them what they say they want in focus groups. This might sound trite, but voters expect Labor to fight, even when they’re not completely on board with the cause. The party should have learned that in 2010, when it backed down on emissions trading, and bled support.
It is the unspoken, but inherent assumption from the ultra conservative ALP types that dominate this blog, that the ALP lacks the politicians with the ability to sell a policy that might be even remotely unpopular; to provoke excitement; to inspire.
This is all absolute fucking rubbish.
Mexicanbeemer
says:
Monday, October 28, 2019 at 11:53 pm
Nath
The other thing is that the state electorates are about a quarter of the population size of a federal electorate. (please excuse for not checking)
_____________________________
Yes I’ve heard that reason too from someone who knows a lot more about politics and QLD than me. I’m not sure why exactly, but I trust their opinion.
Nath
MacKay is one example, at state level the electorate is a solid ALP seat but within the federal electorate of Dawson it is dwarfed by the surrounding areas which tend to favor the LNP unless its a strong ALP result. Cairns is another one, it is usually a solid ALP seat with a marginal electorate to its north and LNP electorates to its south and west.
Rex Douglas says:
Monday, October 28, 2019 at 11:49 am
Labor should have their regional candidates sorted out ASAP and have them on the ground in regional areas talking partnerships with environmentally responsible local businesses to fully subsidise local youth employment. That’s just a start.
Labor should ignore the prescriptions of its enemies, of whom you are definitely one.
Mexicanbeemer
says:
Monday, October 28, 2019 at 11:45 pm
Nath
It is differently true that the ALP hasn’t done as well federally than at state level which is something that no one seems to understand why.
_____________________________
Of course the same phenomena is true in the U.S. There are states that will vote for a Democrat or Republic Governor that will never vote for a Democrat or Republican President. It’s the culture wars? Federal governments make bigger cultural shifts than state governments. Perhaps.
Mexicanbeemer
says:
Tuesday, October 29, 2019 at 12:04 am
Nath
MacKay is one example, at state level the electorate is a solid ALP seat but within the federal electorate of Dawson it is dwarfed by the surrounding areas which tend to favor the LNP unless its a strong ALP result. Cairns is another one, it is usually a solid ALP seat with a marginal electorate to its north and LNP electorates to its south and west.
__________________________
The thing that I couldn’t get my head around though: if there was some kind of gerrymander effect to do with the higher non-Capital population of QLD it would show on seat tallies but the party totals would reveal the discrepancy. But they don’t.
QLD and Victoria are just polar opposites. Howard only won the 2pp vote in Victoria in 2004. Even in the 1996 landslide Keating won the 2pp vote although not the seat tally.
RI @ #642 Monday, October 28th, 2019 – 9:05 pm
So that’s how you’re going to win the votes of people who “might vote for Labor”.
And before you post a pseudo-rebuttal, Rex is far more likely to vote for Labor than anyone in rural Queensland.
Danama…I respect Green voters as much as any others.
I think support has to be won. This is especially true for Labor, who have been in Opposition for most of their history. The first step is to listen to voters. They hold the cards at this table. All voters have to make up their minds on the choices before them. It is very much up to those who appeal for their support to approach them with humility and honesty.
I do not think Green voters have a mortgage on the conscience of the nation, no matter that the Greens themselves pose with their twin children – sanctimony and hypocrisy. I think Green voters must be treated with the same respect as every other voter.
Danama….Rex campaigns day in/day out against Labor. He is a foghorn for the Greens. His purpose is to defile Labor. I can think of no-one less worthy of my attention.
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2019/10/migrants-voting-for-one-nation-and-uap.html
Migrants Voting For One Nation and UAP? (Plus Some Polling Comments)
foghorns are the worst.