The public release of Craig Emerson and Jay Weatherill’s report into Labor’s federal election campaign has inspired a run of commentary about the way ahead for the party after its third successive defeat, to which nothing need be added here. From the perspective of this website, the following details are of specific interest:
• Labor’s own efforts to use area-based regression modelling to identify demographic characteristics associated with swings against Labor identifies five problem areas: voters aged 25-34 in outer urban or regional areas; Christians; coal mining communities; Chinese Australians; and the state of Queensland. The variable that best explained swings in favour of Labor was higher education. However, as has been discussed here previously, this sort of analysis is prey to the ecological fallacy. On this basis, I am particularly dubious about the report’s suggestion that Labor did not lose votes from beneficiaries of franking credits and negative gearing, based on the fact that affluent areas swung to Labor. There is perhaps more to the corresponding assertion that the Liberals were able to persuade low-income non-beneficiaries that Labor’s policies would “crash the economy and risk their jobs”.
• Among Labor’s campaign research tools was a multi-level regression and post-stratification analysis, such as YouGov used with notable success to predict seat outcomes at the 2017 election in the UK. Presumably the results were less spectacular on this occasion, as the report says it is “arguable that this simply added another data point to a messy picture”. The tracking polling conducted for Labor by YouGov showed a favourable swing of between 0.5% and 1.5% for most of the campaign, and finally proved about three points off the mark. YouGov suggested to Labor the problem may have been in its use of respondents’ reported vote at the 2016 election as a weighting factor, but the error was in line with that of the published polling, which to the best of my knowledge isn’t typically weighted for past vote in Australia.
• An analysis of Clive Palmer’s advertising found that 40% was expressly anti-Labor in the hectic final week, compared with only 10% in the earlier part of the campaign. The report notes that the Palmer onslaught caused Labor’s “share of voice” out of the sum of all campaign advertising fell from around 40% in 2016 to 25%, and fell as low as 10% in “some regional markets such as Townsville and Rockhampton”, which respectively delivered disastrous results for Labor in the seats of Herbert and Capricornia.
• It is noted that the gap between Labor’s House and Senate votes, which has progressively swollen from 1% to 4.6% since 1990, is most pronounced in areas where Labor is particularly strong.
Other news:
• The challenge against the election results in Chisholm and Kooyong has been heard in the Federal Court this week. The highlight of proceedings has been an admission from Simon Frost, acting director of the Liberal Party in Victoria at the time of the election, that the polling booth advertising at the centre of the dispute was “intended to convey the impression” that they were Australian Electoral Commission signage. The Australian Electoral Commission has weighed in against the challenge with surprising vehemence, telling the court that voters clearly understood that anything importuning for a particular party would not be its own work.
• The ABC reports there is a move in the Tasmanian Liberal Party to drop Eric Abetz from his accustomed position at the top of the Senate ticket at the next election to make way for rising youngester Jonathan Duniam. The Liberals won four seats at the 2016 double dissolution, which initially resulted in six-year terms being granted to Eric Abetz and Stephen Parry, and three-year terms to Duniam and David Bushby. However, the recount that followed the dual disqualifications of Jacqui Lambie and Stephen Parry in November 2017 resulted in the party gaining three rather than two six-year terms, leaving one each for Abetz, Duniam and Bushby. Bushby resigned in January and was replaced by his sister, Wendy Askew, who appears likely only to secure third place on the ticket, which has not been a winning proposition for the Liberals at a half-Senate election since 2004.
• Andrew Clennell of The Australian ($) reports that Jim Molan is likely to win a Liberal preselection vote on Saturday to fill Arthur Sinodinos’s New South Wales Senate vacancy. The decisive factor would appear to be support from Scott Morrison and centre right faction powerbroker Alex Hawke, overcoming lingering hostility towards Molan over his campaign to win re-election by exhorting Liberal supporters to vote for him below the line, in defiance of a party ticket that had placed him in the unwinnable fourth position. He is nonetheless facing determined opposition from Richard Shields, Woollahra deputy mayor and Insurance Council of Australia executive, who was runner-up to Dave Sharma in the party’s hotly contested preselection for Wentworth last year.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/09/for-too-many-people-in-too-many-countries-democracy-isnt-working
Remember its a world wide trend not just in Australia
“ AE
Your argument would have merit if Queensland Labor had done that instead of ignoring the experts and watering down laws.
That includes attacking the rights of Indigenous people with extinguishing links to traditional lands via legislation.”
That decision was made after the effects of the Greens polarisation became apparent. Not before. Before the convoy the Adani project was being quietly squeezed of life.
Now it is inevitable and Anastasia is cutting her cloth accordingly. Making sure the Adani mine happens may not save her government but it should save the furniture at the very least.
If Anastasia fails to hold back the LNP both the Bradfield scheme and open slather land clearing will happen. Both are 100 times worse than the environmental consequences of Adani.
Thanks a bunch.
AE
Yes I see you have the blame Greens fallback position for Labor selling out the Indigenous as your excuse.
@bencubby tweets
A local mayor can see we face a climate emergency, why can’t the PM? https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/a-local-mayor-can-see-we-face-a-climate-emergency-why-can-t-the-pm-20191110-p5393b.html via @smh
The public impeachment hearings start next week, and the Republicans get to call their own witnesses- or at least request the Chair of the Committee to call them. The first cut list of who they are requesting…
“The list of witnesses requested by Republicans includes Hunter Biden, the former vice president’s younger son; Alexandra Chalupa, who worked at the Democratic National Committee during the 2016 campaign; Nellie Ohr, who worked with Fusion GPS, an opposition research firm that assembled a dossier of allegations about Mr. Trump and Russia; and Devon Archer, a board member at Burisma Holdings, the Ukrainian company where Mr. Biden was also a board member.
The requests suggest Republicans are prepared to argue that Mr. Trump’s interest in those figures — and the pressure he put on Ukraine to investigate them — was legitimate.
Mr. Schiff responded Saturday to the witness requests, vowing that he would not let the hearings serve “as a vehicle to undertake the same sham investigations into the Bidens or 2016 that the president pressed Ukraine to conduct for his personal political benefit.” Under rules adopted by the House, Democrats have the final say on who is called to testify.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/09/us/politics/republican-strategy-impeachment-trump.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage
Michael McCormack says Adam Bandt blamed Scott Morrison for the NSW bushfire fatalities, which he didn’t of course. He’s like an Aussie Mitch McConnell, no wonder we’re in such a mess.
Bellwether
The Tweet Adam Bandt put out.
@AdamBandt tweeted
I’m deeply saddened by the loss of life. Hearts go out to all affected & to brave firefighters.
But words & concern are not enough.
The PM does not have the climate emergency under control.
Unless we lead a global effort to quit coal & cut pollution, more lives will be lost.
sprocket_ @ #1605 Sunday, November 10th, 2019 – 2:26 pm
They should agree to the Republican’s choices if and only if the Republicans support the Democrats choices to testify. And if those people don’t appear – prevented by the White House – to then impeach Trump for obstruction of justice.
All those named in reports should be vetoed by Democrats. Republicans are trying to deflect attention away from the substantive matter at hand and under inquiry.
guytaur @ #1608 Sunday, November 10th, 2019 – 2:31 pm
We are too late to lead the effort. But we could still at least follow it 🙁
‘RI
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/luciana-berger-labour-antisemitism-jeremy-corbyn-election-latest-liberal-democrats-finchley-a9196696.html‘
Anti-semitism?
Six members of the extreme right and the extreme left are in jail with more prosecutions pending. (If you want to get an understanding of just how very vicious the extremism has become, read the article.)
One result is that this could just be a seat that the Tories won’t get because of Brexit, and that Labour will not hoover up because of persistent perceptions of anti-semitism.
The Dems should agree to that list provided they can add a name to it as the first witness in the conga line: Trump.
guytaur @ #1608 Sunday, November 10th, 2019 – 2:31 pm
Yes, I read it too. Nowhere does he blame Morrison for lives lost.
Only 11 more years to go and we reach the Greens’ Event Horizon: Zero/2030.
@Politics_PR tweets
John Bolton went around Mick Mulvaney — and released aid to Ukraine before resigning: report http://j.mp/34MOX2U https://twitter.com/Politics_PR/status/1193372229771259904/photo/1
@AmberAW tweets
JUST IN- Conservative Jim Molan will replace Arthur Sinodinos in the Senate. He had the backing of the PM #auspol
Claims that the Government knew what was coming and was prepared for it will be the benchmark here.
Did they mean they were ready for people to die and for 150 houses to burn?
If they were not ready for that, what were they ready for?
More cuts to funding?
Why did our Glad cut $13 million from RFS funding?
Molan, Dutton, Hawke, Morrison.
An ugly kettle of fish.
Boerwar @ #1616 Sunday, November 10th, 2019 – 11:38 am
Give it enough time and I reckon Trump will be begging to be allowed to testify!
guytaursays:
Sunday, November 10, 2019 at 2:09 pm
I don’t care about export markets particularly, I’m focused on the poverty issue, but to stop an industry that at this point in time meets a required need is just wokeness in the extreme.
To provide electricity to 400 million people in a timely manner will require a range of sources with renewables playing a significant part, but fossil fuels including coal will also be required in the immediate term.
India and other developing Countries’ problem is different to Countries like Australia in that they are still establishing their networks.
Barney
If “wokeness” is not science denialism sign me up
Josh Taylor
@joshgnosis
·
4m
While, according to the Tele, the caption on the photo at the time claimed Morrison was a hotel worker.
Speaking of “woke” I think we can add the Collins Dictionary to that category
‘Non-binary’ has officially been added to the Collins Dictionary https://www.pinknews.co.uk/2019/11/07/non-binary-added-collins-dictionary-definition-they-them-gender-sam-smith/
Boerwar @ #1615 Sunday, November 10th, 2019 – 2:39 pm
Just wondering – do you take it in turns, or is there a roster of shifts?
guytaursays:
Sunday, November 10, 2019 at 2:56 pm
Wokeness is denying science in this case because science hasn’t found a way to run a coal fired power station without coal.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #1621 Sunday, November 10th, 2019 – 2:50 pm
So, if it comes down to poverty or death, which one would you recommend?
C@t
Catching up on your response earlier re your parents. Thanks. Fingers crossed the firies get on top of these fires.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #1627 Sunday, November 10th, 2019 – 3:03 pm
Gas. Just saying.
This refers to a video I posted earlier, but I don’t expect anyone is interested. This is from 2017.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/jacqui-lambies-advisor-norbert-oconnorkeoughs-long-and-winding-past-20171001-gys97y.html
Barney
Pretending we need to open new coal mines to keep existing coal power stations burning is a level of science denial thats off the planet. Very very Fossil Fuel Tobacco industry bs.
Player Onesays:
Sunday, November 10, 2019 at 3:04 pm
Are you volunteering to take up poverty?
guytaursays:
Sunday, November 10, 2019 at 3:05 pm
We certainly don’t, but India is a completely different situation.
@AdyBarkan tweets
.@IlhanOmar endorsed a Jew for president, you numbskull! https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/status/1193242225733521408
Omar very carefully making an anti-Semitic tweet with just enough vagueness to claim that ackshually she meant it was about the benjamins and not about religion.
But everyone knows what she meant, which is why she continues to do it. https://twitter.com/IlhanMN/status/1193223373922488320
Your charge that Qld Labor is selling out the indigenous people in its approvals processes Guytaur is desperate.
From the very article you linked:
“ Adani has a ILUA over the land: five of the 12 native claimants have opposed it, but have lost successive legal challenges in court to prevent it. Seven, a majority, of the native title claimants support the Adani mine.”
As can be seen the indigenous position over Adani (including on the very vexed question of who exactly are the traditional owners, the elders or the traditional owners) is not at all clear cut as you say. As it turns out the minority title claimants have had their claims dismissed in federal court this year.
Personally, I’m with the losing minority claimants. I know some of them. I believe their claims. However the law decided in favour of the other claimants – who seemingly also represent a majority of indigenous people in that claim area.
Player Onesays:
Sunday, November 10, 2019 at 3:04 pm
Then it wouldn’t be a coal fired power station.
AE
Nah desperate is the coal boosters attempts at defence on this site.
@dsllymvmsnud yerryd
Australian flight attendants are completely opposed to the Ensuring Integrity Bill. Small unions will be under the most pressure with these oppressive and dangerous laws
@terifaaa https://twitter.com/terifaaa/status/1193356435838496769
If Zero/2030 is your event horizon then of course there is no room for the coal industry, the oil industry, the gas industry, the 19 million fossil fuel burning cars, the uranium industry, the beef industry, the sheep industry, the cotton industry, rodeos, the jumps, deep sea trawling, native forests forestry, large trawlers, GMOs, the dogs and the trots.
Out of all of these, Adani is by far and away the most critical in terms of achieving Zero/2030.
Every fool knows that.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #1633 Sunday, November 10th, 2019 – 3:07 pm
In preference to death? Sure! You?
@LordofWentworth tweets
Pacific Islands Policy: how it differs from New Zealand’s https://twitter.com/LordofWentworth/status/1193381650727456768/photo/1
I see what some posters mean about Desi.
It’s hard to believe it’s not butter.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #1637 Sunday, November 10th, 2019 – 3:11 pm
D’oh! We must burn coal because they are called coal fired power stations!
Have you never heard of coal to gas conversion?
“ Nah desperate is the coal boosters attempts at defence on this site.”
Mate, other than bukake no one on bludger is a coal booster. Some of us simply show a deeper understanding of the complexities of the science, economics and politics of the situation than either you or P1 or all of the Greens shills. That is all.
‘Andrew_Earlwood says:
Sunday, November 10, 2019 at 3:11 pm
Your charge that Qld Labor is selling out the indigenous people in its approvals processes Guytaur is desperate.’
Guytaur’s claim is based on a lie. I am not sure why Greens feel that they have the right to co-opt Indigenous opinion in this way but it is probably Doogie’s narcissism in operation.
Being a Green means never have to recognise that complex problems have complex solutions.
lizzie @ #1613 Sunday, November 10th, 2019 – 2:57 pm
Apparently, as a form of protest, Morrison glued his mouth to the megaphone and they’ve never been able to separate him.
lizzie,
I care. 🙂
It is just so ridiculous that we have people here defending the burning of coal on the same day that people are dying or having their homes burned out as a consequence of … guess what … burning coal 🙁
What sort of insane asylum has Australia become when this is even possible?