The public release of Craig Emerson and Jay Weatherill’s report into Labor’s federal election campaign has inspired a run of commentary about the way ahead for the party after its third successive defeat, to which nothing need be added here. From the perspective of this website, the following details are of specific interest:
• Labor’s own efforts to use area-based regression modelling to identify demographic characteristics associated with swings against Labor identifies five problem areas: voters aged 25-34 in outer urban or regional areas; Christians; coal mining communities; Chinese Australians; and the state of Queensland. The variable that best explained swings in favour of Labor was higher education. However, as has been discussed here previously, this sort of analysis is prey to the ecological fallacy. On this basis, I am particularly dubious about the report’s suggestion that Labor did not lose votes from beneficiaries of franking credits and negative gearing, based on the fact that affluent areas swung to Labor. There is perhaps more to the corresponding assertion that the Liberals were able to persuade low-income non-beneficiaries that Labor’s policies would “crash the economy and risk their jobs”.
• Among Labor’s campaign research tools was a multi-level regression and post-stratification analysis, such as YouGov used with notable success to predict seat outcomes at the 2017 election in the UK. Presumably the results were less spectacular on this occasion, as the report says it is “arguable that this simply added another data point to a messy picture”. The tracking polling conducted for Labor by YouGov showed a favourable swing of between 0.5% and 1.5% for most of the campaign, and finally proved about three points off the mark. YouGov suggested to Labor the problem may have been in its use of respondents’ reported vote at the 2016 election as a weighting factor, but the error was in line with that of the published polling, which to the best of my knowledge isn’t typically weighted for past vote in Australia.
• An analysis of Clive Palmer’s advertising found that 40% was expressly anti-Labor in the hectic final week, compared with only 10% in the earlier part of the campaign. The report notes that the Palmer onslaught caused Labor’s “share of voice” out of the sum of all campaign advertising fell from around 40% in 2016 to 25%, and fell as low as 10% in “some regional markets such as Townsville and Rockhampton”, which respectively delivered disastrous results for Labor in the seats of Herbert and Capricornia.
• It is noted that the gap between Labor’s House and Senate votes, which has progressively swollen from 1% to 4.6% since 1990, is most pronounced in areas where Labor is particularly strong.
Other news:
• The challenge against the election results in Chisholm and Kooyong has been heard in the Federal Court this week. The highlight of proceedings has been an admission from Simon Frost, acting director of the Liberal Party in Victoria at the time of the election, that the polling booth advertising at the centre of the dispute was “intended to convey the impression” that they were Australian Electoral Commission signage. The Australian Electoral Commission has weighed in against the challenge with surprising vehemence, telling the court that voters clearly understood that anything importuning for a particular party would not be its own work.
• The ABC reports there is a move in the Tasmanian Liberal Party to drop Eric Abetz from his accustomed position at the top of the Senate ticket at the next election to make way for rising youngester Jonathan Duniam. The Liberals won four seats at the 2016 double dissolution, which initially resulted in six-year terms being granted to Eric Abetz and Stephen Parry, and three-year terms to Duniam and David Bushby. However, the recount that followed the dual disqualifications of Jacqui Lambie and Stephen Parry in November 2017 resulted in the party gaining three rather than two six-year terms, leaving one each for Abetz, Duniam and Bushby. Bushby resigned in January and was replaced by his sister, Wendy Askew, who appears likely only to secure third place on the ticket, which has not been a winning proposition for the Liberals at a half-Senate election since 2004.
• Andrew Clennell of The Australian ($) reports that Jim Molan is likely to win a Liberal preselection vote on Saturday to fill Arthur Sinodinos’s New South Wales Senate vacancy. The decisive factor would appear to be support from Scott Morrison and centre right faction powerbroker Alex Hawke, overcoming lingering hostility towards Molan over his campaign to win re-election by exhorting Liberal supporters to vote for him below the line, in defiance of a party ticket that had placed him in the unwinnable fourth position. He is nonetheless facing determined opposition from Richard Shields, Woollahra deputy mayor and Insurance Council of Australia executive, who was runner-up to Dave Sharma in the party’s hotly contested preselection for Wentworth last year.
AE
Nah you show a lack of understanding of politics. Its why Labor loses Federal Elections. The review was pretty clear.
Keep attacking the people you need to win. NO base means you lose the 48% gained last time with the messy communicated message. A guarantee of the right winning and the Left/Progressives to continue to be kept in opposition far away from the levers of power just like the oligarchs want.
@LesStonehouse tweets
Not today or next week or next year.. How dare you journalist ask that silly question . #auspol.. Check out Stuntmos face . #ClimateEmergency https://twitter.com/Qldaah/status/1193360825764872192
“Honestly, not today!” Gladys Berejiklian calls out as journalist asks Scott Morrison about climate change. Journo had previously been speaking to a couple at a hotel who raised concerns over CC. Unfortunately, ABCNews interrupts midway through answer. #nswfires #qldfires #auspol https://twitter.com/Qldaah/status/1193360825764872192/video/1
C@tmomma:
The hierarchy of concerns implicit in these statements is wrong and counter-productive.
Instead (and in much more detail below):
The Coalition is against history, against Western Civilization, against Australia, against technology, against capitalism, against jobs and against growth, whilst pretending to be in favour of all these things. Australians should be asking why: are Coalition MPs knaves pursuing the contrary interests of others?, or are they fools who simply don’t understand?
Detail
It does not reaaly matter whether the Coalition “acknowedges” Climate Change, because “acknowledgement” has no effect and moreover politicians are highly adept at “acknowledging” things as loudly as possible to paper over an intention to inaction. That’s why the PM in Yes, Prime Minsiter ended up wearing the bright tie.
It does matter if a government actually fails to act on some important issue (such as Climite change) was and given that “acknowledgement” and “action” are not necessarily directly related (and can be inversely related) it would be quite possible (and infinitely better) to have action without acknowledgment than the reverse.
However, what matters most of all is energy, completely inpedendent of climiate change. Will government follow historical precedent and support energy transition in order to gain national advantage? This was done in support of coal, in support of hydro, in support of petroleum and in support of nuclear (1% of US GDP excluding underwriting uninusable risks). Australia in particular has the opportunity to become the most productive nation per capita if it uses our natural advantages to exploit new distributed energy generation (the advantages are not just that there’s a lot of sun, but also that there’s a lot of untilised space that can safely be utilised via new technology – i.e. can grow utilisation whilst reducing aggregate impact). Australia’s advantage scales to a considerably higher population whilst reducing the aggregate impact – 100M at least can be accommodated whilst reducing aggregate impact within Australia and furthermore allowing the accpatence of large numbers of people from less advantaged areas).
Instead of asking:
– why is the Coalition against ackkneldging Climate Change? Or
– why is the Coaltion against activist on Climate change?
One should be asking (but in more easily understood terms):
A – why as supposed conservatives (and thus respecters of history) and supposed patriots is the Coalition against following historical precedent in support of driving energy transition for national advantage
=> (short form) Why (as supposed conservatives) is the Colation against learning the lessons of history of Wesrern civilisation? Why is the Coalition against Western civilisation?
=> (short form) Why (as supposed patriots) is the Coaltion against Australia using our natural advantages to become a much more productive and much more powerful nation? Why is the Coaltion against Australia?
B – Why (as supposed capitalists) is the Coaltion against new and superior energy technology which gains its superiority from increased capital intensity?
=> (short form) Why is the Coalition agianst (actual) capitalism (but in favour of ‘financial capitialism’)?
=> (short form) Why is the Coalition against new technology, which is more than 80% the driver of capitalism and economic growth? What has the Coalition got against growth?
C – Why (as supposed advocates for jobs-n-growth) is the Coalition aginst new, superior and more labor-intensive and more capital-intensive energy technology replacing current inferior (fewer jobs and less growth) land-intensive technology
=> (short form) Why is the Coalition against jobs?
=> (short form) Why is the Coalition agianst growth?
Most likely they are just incompetent (because competent people on the Right go into commerce etc, leaving the dregs to go into politics), but an alternative (true to some extent) that:
– the Coalition is not conservative in favour of history and Western Civilisation but instead is reactionary standing against the tide
– the Coalition is not patriotic in favour of Australia but instead is lickspittle looking always to tug the forelock as someone’s deputy sheriff
– the Coalition is not capitalist in favour of new capital technology but instead is Luddite and rentier in favour of land
– the Coalition is not in favour of jobs-n-growth via new more labour-intensive and more capital intensive technology and creative destruction but instead is rentier seeking to reinforce rents from holdings of land and stale corporate securities
The Coalition is against history, against Western Civilization, against Australia, against technology, against capitalism, against jobs and against growth, whilst pretending to be in favour of all these things. Australians should be asking why: are Coalition MPs knaves pursuing the contrary interests of others?, or are they fools who simply don’t understand?
Andrew_Earlwood @ #1645 Sunday, November 10th, 2019 – 3:23 pm
Some of us judge by the greenhouse gases you emit, not by the words.
Under their Zero/2030 Plan the Greens support coal, gas and oil burning for the next 11 years.
They are clear about the things that will be closed down on Day 1 of the Di Natale Government. Fossil fuels are not on that list.
GG
Very funny and rather apt for the loud one. 🙂
EGT
You could have saved yourself a lot of typing there, comrade.
They are spivs. That is all anyone really needs to know.
@anusha_srini tweets
Only Gerard Henderson can bring up Adani when the country is burning
#StableGenius #auspol #insiders
Plus some Labor partisans
Retired Army major general Jim Molan is set to return to Federal Parliament after being chosen to fill the spot vacated by Liberal Senator Arthur Sinodinos.
Mr Molan defeated Insurance Council of Australia executive Richard Shields for the position at a meeting in Sydney today.
Player Onesays:
Sunday, November 10, 2019 at 3:19 pm
Of course, but in Countries like India it’s much easier and safer to transport and store something like coal as opposed to gas.
@GrogsGamut tweets
Because it would be wrong to talk about the cause of something while that something is happening, I guess. https://twitter.com/BlakeJohnson/status/1193355594750496769
Will Molan be able to raise our strategic fuel reserves to their expected levels?
I doubt it.
@b_spectabilis tweets
NSW fires: Authorities brace for ‘considerable losses’ as government sidesteps climate questions https://www.sbs.com.au/news/nsw-fires-authorities-brace-for-considerable-losses-as-government-sidesteps-climate-questions?cid=news:socialshare:twitter via @SBSNews
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #1661 Sunday, November 10th, 2019 – 3:32 pm
Safety? Are you serious?
Have you looked at how many people coal actually kills?
@Rottoturbine tweets
We had a bit of an amusing situation the other night. We had all seen Years on Years. There was a wide-ranging discussion of some of the issues raised by the show.
I then popped in a hypothetical.
The context was that Trump, in his last days as Pres, had detonated a US nuclear missile on a Chinese military base.
What would be the very first thing each of us would do when we heard that news?
Everyone else in the room said that they would contact family one way or another.
I was literally astonished by their answers.
There was only person in the room who had been in a country during time of war, who had been an economic refugee because of war, or who had family in country occupied by the Nazis or by the Japanese. This person had a completely different answer.
I won’t say what my answer was but it was blindingly obvious that in this domain, some real life experience makes a massive difference to attitudes and to behaviour.
Boerwar:
Perhaps that is so?
I note Dr Hewson their former leader is in favour of all those things, and Mr Turnbull their former leader is at least in favour of technology (whilst also a fool opposed to it in the matter of the NBN – communctions is of course critical in new energy technology); and there are probably some more.
More importantly, it is evident that most people don’t know, and all the noise from the wankers acts mainly to conceal the signal from the spivs, amd is highly counter-productive.
I suspect that wherever there are spivs there will also be wankers!
https://www.statista.com/statistics/494425/death-rate-worldwide-by-energy-source/
It feels like Groundhog Day here today 🙁
EGT
LOL. The thing is that we should never underestimate spivs. There is absolutely no law that says that spivs have to be stupid.
@DavidParis tweets
A room full of Liberal ‘luminaries’ praises the achievements of Tony Abbott a few days ago. The achievements they spoke of were removing an incentive to reduce carbon pollution and preventing multinational miners sharing their profits. What a fukkin champ.
Morrison, McCormack et al aren’t so much climate deniers as climate cowards. Unwilling to face an era defining challenge that they as elected leaders supposedly signed up for. What sad weak little men they are.
I must say the Liberal junior anti labor party is not trying to hide from reality. A party that can just master 10% of the vote trying to convince Labor if they would only adopt their policies they would win.
I really hope that southern MPs who would like to understand Queensland (and gain their votes, perhaps) get around to reading this wide ranging description of Queensland regions and politics.
https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2019/november/1572526800/lech-blaine/how-good-queensland?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Sunday%20Reads%20-%2010%20November%202019&utm_content=Sunday%20Reads%20-%2010%20November%202019+CID_edbb13c1a0910d5d011ef11925476eea&utm_source=EDM&utm_term=How%20good%20is%20Queensland
Player Onesays:
Sunday, November 10, 2019 at 3:37 pm
Being transported?
Not too many.
EGT,
I think you left out Mercantilists from your list of what the Reactionary Social Conservative Anarchists are. For they are very much that.
Also, did you, when you said this:
That’s why the PM in Yes, Prime Minister ended up wearing the bright tie.
Mean this?
https://www.afr.com/companies/agriculture/scott-morrison-discovers-his-own-greta-thunberg-20190929-p52vzw
Look, ma! No trees! But lots of drought. 😐
P1
Have you looked at how many people India actually has?
If they allow poisonous coal to kill tens of millions of their people annually they’ll still have plenty left over!
Once again – I am not in favour of the Indian State or their Government killing tens of millions of Indians, I am against that – I am simply saying that because the mass killing is mixed up in a whole lot of other things and the population is relatively much larger, it will continue for a while. Deliver off-grid solar and wind to the end point and it will stop quickly, as quickly as mobile phones (to the end-point) transformed Indian fishing economies .
@bencubby tweets
There’s a ‘catastrophic’ fire danger warning for Greater Sydney, the Hunter, Blue Mountains and Central Coast for Tuesday. This is the highest level of bushfire risk. #NSWfires
lizzie,
My takeout from those photos is that Scott Morrison thinks he has this thing all under control, he just has to make the right noises, say the right words about the after effects of Climate Change, whilst not actually mentioning climate change, and he’s home and hosed.
@QBEaus tweets
Australia’s severe storms have more than doubled in intensity over the past 50 years and could get worse, according to University of Adelaide research. Here’s what you can do to prepare your home.
#QBEInsurance #StormPreparation #Storms https://twitter.com/QBEaus/status/1184612595501801472/video/1
Scott Morrison is a bona fide imposter
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #1675 Sunday, November 10th, 2019 – 3:53 pm
And you transport coal … why?
From the NSW RFS a little while ago:
“Catastrophic fire danger is now forecast for the Greater Sydney and Greater Hunter areas on Tuesday 12 November 2019, due to worsening weather conditions.
High temperatures, strong winds and low humidity are forecast, making conditions dangerous.
Catastrophic is the highest level of bush fire danger. Homes are not designed to withstand a fire under these conditions.
If a fire starts and takes hold during Catastrophic fire danger conditions, lives and homes will be at risk.”
https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/news-and-media/general-news/dangerous-fire-conditions-forecast-for-tuesday-12-november/_nocache
Corbyn is on track to get Labour support similar to that the Australian Greens enjoy. Still -16% to go to go. Can he do it by the election?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2019/oct/31/uk-general-election-2019-poll-tracker
E. G. Theodore @ #1678 Sunday, November 10th, 2019 – 3:57 pm
Are you seriously proposing that an Indian life is somehow worth less than others because there are more of them?
So, presumably a Chinese life is worth even less?
I am just gobsmacked.
What on earth is going on with PB today?
UK Labour on track to doing what Australian Labor do frequently.
Frednk
Meanwhile in the UK………….
Louise Mensch
@LouiseMensch
·
4h
Great exclusive in the Sunday Times on Russia and #Brexit appears to confirm that Dom Cummings is restricted on security matters.
It’s surely time to go to court. We must know if the referendum was free and fair.
Russian Tory donors named in secret report
Nine Russian business people who gave money to the Conservative Party are named in a secret intelligence report on the threats posed to UK democracy which was suppressed last week by Downing Street.
thetimes.co.uk
This just in….
@grAntlerMensch tweets
The Climate Jihadist from the Church of the Burning Hill https://twitter.com/Supermoosie/status/1193366426649677825
@Supermoosie
Player Onesays:
Sunday, November 10, 2019 at 4:07 pm
Because they haven’t worked out how to magic it to where it’s needed.
C@t
SmugMo.
Of course, if you think you have the ear of the Almighty…
Player One @ #774 Sunday, November 10th, 2019 – 4:11 pm
The debate becomes illogical when profits are put ahead of humanity and environment.
A two day State-wide fire ban has been declared for the whole of NSW Monday and Tuesday.
This BBC article links the NSW bushfires to global warming.
But who to choose?
I know I do some shit-stirring and sometimes we’re hyperbolic about each other’s callousness, but I have to say “There are lots of Indians, so what does it matter if a few of them die?” is probably the worst take I have seen come out of this shit hole of a discussion forum.
The letter from emergency chief to Morrison back in September is damning
Victoria
Yes. As I said yesterday if Labor can’t destroy Morrison over this they should resign.
Forget Adani there is plenty to convict the LNP on.