YouGov Galaxy: 55-45 to federal Coalition in Queensland

A Queensland-only federal poll from YouGov Galaxy splits the difference between the actual election result and the pre-election polling that singularly failed to predict it.

The Courier-Mail/Sunday Mail has followed up yesterday’s YouGov Galaxy state results, which were covered here, with the federal voting intention findings from the same poll. This records the Coalition with a 55-45 lead in the state, from primary votes of Coalition 40%, Labor 29%, One Nation 13% and Greens 12%. However, Scott Morrison records a commanding 46-23 over Anthony Albanese as preferred prime minister.

According to taste, you can interpret the voting intention results as:

• An improvement for Labor on the election result, at which the Coalition recorded a thumping 58.6-41.4 two-party preferred win in the state, from primary votes of Coalition 43.7%, Labor 26.7%, Greens 10.3% and One Nation 8.9%;

• A surge to the Coalition compared with the last YouGov Galaxy poll from Queensland, which was conducted a week-and-a-half before the May 18 election and proved, like all pre-election polling from the state, to be very badly astray. That poll had the Coalition leading 51-49, from primary votes of Coalition 38%, Labor 33%, Greens 9% and One Nation 9%.

The latter result, which was similar to Newspoll state breakdowns of the time, is worth revisiting, as it more-or-less accurately predicted the vote shares for the minor parties (albeit a shade too low for the Greens), and may have done well enough for the major parties among women – but it very clearly dropped the ball among Queensland men, who plainly didn’t come close to the dead even two-party split attributed to them by the poll.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,780 comments on “YouGov Galaxy: 55-45 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

  1. Boerwar says:
    Wednesday, September 4, 2019 at 1:58 pm
    Bu reckons our democracy is one of the best in the world.

    Here are some of the things that are wrong with it:

    1. Ability to buy elections. Palmer’s spend and preference harvest being an example. Third Party spend by the minerals industry of around $23 million saved them hundreds of millions being another.

    I believe that Mr Bowe has already demonstrated on this site that Palmer had zero impact on the outcome of the election.

    The Unions spend much more than $23 million campaigning – why is one group more entitled to do so than another? (And the Resource Rent Tax was a disaster anyway)

    2. Massive imbalance in media ownership including virtual monopolies in some states. Media ownership used ruthlessly to foster electoral manipulation.

    Imbalance? Start your own media company then. Nothing stopping you. Appeal to the public. Win the argument.

    3. First past the post distorts the relative power of rural and region over urban. Gross pork barrelling maintains this imbalance.

    Australia doesn’t use first past the post as far as I am aware. Last time I voted at all levels it was either Preferential or Proportional Representation.

    4. Massive interference by religious groups.

    Once again – they have as much right to association and to campaign as any other group in our society.

    5. Kowtowing to the US under the anti-democratic Trump.

    Pretty sure Trump is elected in a democratic system and I’m not aware of any kowtowing being done.

    6. Lax electoral donation laws.

    The ALP are the ones who have the problem which is mainly created by stupid discrimination.

    7. Lack of Fed ICAC with teeth.

    There’s no evidence that one is needed (unless you know something about the Federal ALP and aren’t telling us?).

    8. Massive suite of security laws that are being selectively administered by the Coalition for party political purposes.

    So you don;t think we need security laws and the Agencies administering them under the ALP for 6 years have suddenly become the lap dogs of the LNP? Any evidence for that?

    9. Almost total erosion of ministerial accountability.

    Just because you don’t like the party of the people doesn’t mean you can make unsubstantiated claims – what you got? I’m pretty sure that there is significant Parliamentary oversight – unless you can point to a committee not doing its job.

    10. Progressive outsourcing of government spends which are then rendered opaque to accountability by parliament by deliberate use of contract confidentiality terms.

    You think the public service are super efficient and effective?

    11. Use of automated electronic systems such as robocop which have entirely eliminated accountability.

    Who isn’t accountable anymore?

    12. Virtually uncontrolled use of social media to lie, distort and manipulate.

    You shouldn’t be so hard on Poll Bludger posters – their biases are there for all to see.

  2. Australian Federal Police officers are currently raiding the home of a Commonwealth official in Canberra.

    Officers arrived at the house in the leafy inner south suburb of Griffith and executed a search warrant on Wednesday morning.

    Officers were seen walking out of the house with bags shortly before midday.

    “This activity does not relate to any current or impending threat to the Australian community,” the AFP said in a statement.

    “As this is an ongoing matter, it would not be appropriate to comment further at this time.”

  3. Boerwar says:
    Wednesday, September 4, 2019 at 2:00 pm
    ‘Bucephalus says:
    Wednesday, September 4, 2019 at 1:56 pm

    Boerwar says:
    Wednesday, September 4, 2019 at 1:40 pm

    “As for the Israelis stopping other states from developing nuclear weapons… what hypocrisy!”

    You might call it hypocrisy but I’m pretty sure that they call it survival and they have some experience on that issue.

  4. Boerwar says:
    Wednesday, September 4, 2019 at 2:03 pm

    “This Government is over classifying every last thing in order to avoid accountability.”

    Wrong – the Government doesn’t do the classifying – that is done by the authors and signers of the documents.

    “There is absolutely no reason why all aspects of the three year old investigation into SAS war crimes is not now made fully public – except to spare this militaristic government from its own folly.”

    You have no idea about what information is in the documents and yet you claim it can be unclassified? I did training activities with the SAS in the 1980’s and 1990’s that is still classified.

    “We no longer have soldiers in Afghanistan.”

    We have 300 and some of them are my friends.

    “Our tactics there were better known to Afghanistani villagers than to Australians.”

    Let’s keep it that way.

  5. Mavis Davis says:
    Wednesday, September 4, 2019 at 2:10 pm

    Freedom is not unlimited and with it comes responsibility (as i often tell my children).

    The Australian Press has demonstrated it can’t be trusted with classified information and has placed peoples lives at risk before now and what gives them a right to be a law unto themselves and decide which laws apply and which don’t? None of us have that right.

  6. a r says:
    Wednesday, September 4, 2019 at 2:13 pm

    “Aside from seizing a UK tanker in retaliation for having one of their tankers seized (justifiable tit-for-tat exchange that the UK started)”

    So you are cool with Iran breaching international sanctions and supplying oil to the Assad Regime in Syria?

    “Iran hasn’t done jack in years.”

    This just shows you know nothing about what is happening in the Middle East.

    “If anything they’ve shown significant restraint given that they’ve got Trump just looking for any excuse to start a war.”

    Utter bollocks – there have been multiple provocations by the Iranians that easily could have resulted in military action against them and Trump hasn’t done so. Do you know how much the US drone that Iran shot down in international air space is worth?

  7. ‘ar

    Iran hasn’t done jack in years’

    Ah, no…

    Iran has been a massive player in the region, including financing, training and arming Heshbollah and Hamas. Its funded militias mostly fought hard on OUR side in cleaning up our Iraq and the ISIS mess.

    The point of the Iran Nuclear Agreement was not that it was going to stop regional power plays by Iran or that it was going to stop Iran supporting terrorism.

    It WAS designed to stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons. Conflating the two in international discussions/actions is in the direct interest of Israel, the US Anti-Iran ideologues, AND the US fossil industry which benefits directly and massively from the high fossil fuel prices and fossil fuel demand liberated by knocking Iran out of the global supply chain.

  8. ‘Bucephalus says:
    Wednesday, September 4, 2019 at 2:24 pm

    Boerwar says:
    Wednesday, September 4, 2019 at 2:03 pm

    “This Government is over classifying every last thing in order to avoid accountability.”

    Wrong – the Government doesn’t do the classifying – that is done by the authors and signers of the documents.’

    Which shows that you don’t have much of an idea of how classification really happens.

  9. Bu

    You are sucker bait. If there is one thing the ADF learned from Vietnam is that you control information that gets to the public.

    Embedding is one tactic. Punishing journalists for telling the truth is another. Punishing whistle blowers is another. Over classifying everything in sight is another.
    This control is in the interests of the Party running government and the ADF.
    As noted above, dodging accountability is the name of the game.

    Here is a little Afghanistan War truth and accountability test for you. How many taxpayer dollar payments went to how many civilian claimants for how many civilian deaths (caused by the ADF) in Afghanistan?

  10. Boerwar says:
    Wednesday, September 4, 2019 at 2:36 pm

    “Which shows that you don’t have much of an idea of how classification really happens.”

    Strange you would claim that seeing as how I was trained in production and management of them, had a security clearance and was responsible for producing a number of them and managing a collection of them.

  11. Regarding climate change action by prominent Democrat primary contenders…. They have been on the record for a while now on strong action. Republicans have been blasting it with their ridiculous claims trying to spur their base into anger. Yet here are the latest A rated (538) Trump approval polls (most recent first)…
    39-55, 38-56, 40-53, 40-54

    These approval ratings match recent Presidential head to head polls with Quinnipiac showing Biden +16, Sanders +14 and Warren +12.

    No doubt climate action will scare some voters. However the US media is more balanced on this than our own, the Democrat Party is better organised and mobilised in their sell and their finances and there is a strong and vocal group of corporations and groups of Republicans also demanding climate action. I do not believe that Climate policy will be the downfall of a good Democrat candidate.

  12. More than 2,800 Afghans have received payments totalling $207,000 as Australian compensation for “collateral damage to property, injury or loss of life” during military operations in their country or an average of $73 an incident.

    Under the so-called tactical payment scheme, the government can compensate local people for incidents that occur during the Australian defence force’s overseas operations without admitting legal liability.

  13. Boerwar says:
    Wednesday, September 4, 2019 at 2:40 pm

    I’m fully aware of the practice of making payments to families of civilians killed in military actions – it is a common cultural practice throughout the Middle East and Central Asia. I’m not aware of the quantum nor concerned about it.

    Are you alleging illegality in making the payments or the deaths or both?

  14. Bucephalus:

    [‘Freedom is not unlimited and with it comes responsibility (as i often tell my children).’]

    I see you’re now changing the goal-posts. The greatest bulwark against the untrammeled actions of the Executive arm of government is to have a free and open press, with few if any exceptions, more so with the current government which has turned chicanery into an art form.

  15. Boerwar, care to tell us how you feel about Shorten now:

    Boerwar
    says:
    Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 8:27 pm
    Shorten giveth and Shorten takes away. What a sleasebag.

  16. So you are cool with Iran breaching international sanctions and supplying oil to the Assad Regime in Syria?

    Yep. Iran can send its boats where it wants, provided that when they’re in territorial waters they have permission from whomever’s territory they happen to be in at the time. Just like any other nation that has boats.

    If two sovereign nations want to trade, that’s not something the rest of the world should have license to directly interfere in.

    Do you know how much the US drone that Iran shot down, allegedly in international air space, is worth?

    Half a pittance compared to the cost of fighting an actual war or the life of an actual pilot or the civilians on the groud who inevitably become “collateral damage”.

    Given how geographically far the US is from Iran, their legitimate reasons for operating drones within range of Iran’s surface to air weapons are few and far between indeed. Did you know that if the US hadn’t chosen such an odd location to fly their drone around they’d still have it and nothing else would be different?

  17. Boerwar says:
    Wednesday, September 4, 2019 at 2:49 pm

    The ADF Operates within the boundaries of the law and policies extant at the time. I never saw any political interference at the tactical level. The ALP were in power for most of my ADF career, unfortunately otherwise I might still be in but they butchered our capability so I left.

  18. Bu

    Right now we have a road closed on Christmas Island to stop information reaching the public. The AFP raiding yet another media person in order to stop information reaching the public.
    We have the Government prosecuting a whistleblower and lawyer for lifting the lid on the stinking East Timor corruption. We have other journalists being investigated for blowing the lid on Afghanistan War Crimes. This is the same crowd that went for Wilkie when he blew the lid on the Iraq WMD lie.

    If you can’t see the pattern here, you are sucker bait.

    We have a Government that selectively releases information on boat arrivals and punishes people who release information that is contrary to the Party’s interests.

    If you can’t see the pattern here, you are sucker bait.

    I can’t recall any time in the past half century when there was a greater effort by any Government to control the messages. Not in the national interest. In the party partisan interest.

  19. ‘Bucephalus says:
    Wednesday, September 4, 2019 at 2:57 pm

    Boerwar says:
    Wednesday, September 4, 2019 at 2:49 pm

    The ADF Operates within the boundaries of the law and policies extant at the time. I never saw any political interference at the tactical level. The ALP were in power for most of my ADF career, unfortunately otherwise I might still be in but they butchered our capability so I left.’

    If you can’t see that the ‘law’ and the ‘policies’ have been framed to stop the Australian public from knowing what it needs to know for accountability to occur then you have been brainwashed by the Coalition and by the ADF.

  20. Trump is sticking it to Iran as a sop to Saudi Arabia – especially that great champion of human rights, Prince Mohammad bin Salman.

    This is all about boosting Saudi and Israeli power in the Middle East at the expense of Iran.

  21. a r says:
    Wednesday, September 4, 2019 at 2:53 pm

    “such an odd location to fly their drone” apart from it being the site of six attacks against tankers with 30% (I think) of global oil supplies passing through.

    I’m done with you. You are either completely ignorant or just make shit up to try and get a rise.

    If you want to make reasoned logical arguments I’m happy to engage but at the moment you are just full of it.

  22. Brucephalus

    You write about those who break the laws about classified information by possessing or transmitting it. In doing so you show a naive understanding of democracy and it’s processes.

    Laws are minor aspects of the process. They can be made and unmade very easily, and they are eg “carbon pricing” laws undone (ie wrecked) by the Wrecker in Chief and his Sky Lady. Easy. BTW he is currently plying his wrecking skills in the UK, supporting the other global fool Johnston.

    What is far more crucial than laws is the keeping of conventions. One of these is the convention that government only Classifies matters of critical importance.

    Morrison and Dutton have repeatedly broken this convention, for crass political purpose. To whistle blow such matters is moral and ethical. To whistle blow abuse of process is never illegal.

    If like Pell such whistle blowers can afford to go to the HC, they would be exonerated. “The HC would so hold”.

  23. Is it possible that todays AFP action is related to the finding of and prosecuting the leaker of the AWU raids?

    Sniggers, face slaps, shakes head, back to work.

  24. The Omerta laws protecting farmers are on the up and up.
    Try broadcasting farm animal cruelty!
    What were all the outcomes of the numerous internal inquiries launched by Joyce into animal cruelty?
    Sunk.
    Try finding out where all the Gigs of water went in the MDB.
    When Omerta failed the Government simply forgave the farmers all their criminal land clearing activities.
    Robocop v land clearing: compare and contrast.

  25. Boerwar says:
    Wednesday, September 4, 2019 at 2:57 pm

    “Right now we have a road closed on Christmas Island to stop information reaching the public.”

    Who owns the road? Why is it unreasonable to run security operations there? The illegal entrants are in immigration detention – that means they don’t get access to whoever and wherever they want.

    “The AFP raiding yet another media person in order to stop information reaching the public.”

    I haven’t seen any public information to support your claim.

    “We have the Government prosecuting a whistleblower and lawyer for lifting the lid on the stinking East Timor corruption.”

    It wasn’t corruption. It was a legitimate ASIS operation in Australia’s National interest and if you have had anything to do with the geniuses in charge of East Timor you’d understand why we needed to know WTF was going on inside that organisation. It is a crime to reveal ASIS operations and agents.

    “We have other journalists being investigated for blowing the lid on Afghanistan War Crimes.”

    You missed the word “alleged”. Anyone not authorised to access classified information is committing a crime by doing so – anyone – the law doesn’t give journalists a free pass.

    “This is the same crowd that went for Wilkie when he blew the lid on the Iraq WMD lie.”

    Not sure about the relevance but he was an instructor at RMC when I was a cadet and he was a tool then and his reputation as tool followed him from his cadet days.

    “We have a Government that selectively releases information on boat arrivals and punishes people who release information that is contrary to the Party’s interests.”

    Bugger me – a government of politicians being politicians. I’m sure you’ll set the bar as high for the ALP next time they are in power. (How is Sussex Street at the moment – nothing in the interest of the Party type behaviour being looked into?)

  26. It is dishonest to portray recent Iranian behaviour in the Straits of Hormuz as if the behaviour just sort of happened.

    It did not.

    The US under Trump unilaterally broke an Agreement and accompanied that with intense organisation of an international blockade of Iranian oil exports.

    The Iranian response is small beer compared with this wholesale economic attack on Iranian sovereignty by the US. The notion that in relation to oil flows it is the Iranians who are acting in bad faith would be laughable were it not so serious.

    Can there be any doubt that the whole point of the above was that Bolton, Netanyahu & Co would get what they really wanted – an all-out hot war between the US and Iran?

  27. Psyclaw says:
    Wednesday, September 4, 2019 at 3:04 pm

    You don’t have any experience with the ADF or production and handling of Classified Documents, do you.

  28. Bucephalus:

    [‘How am I changing the goal posts?’]

    ‘The question you posed was: ‘What fabric of our highly successful democracy is being undone?’

    I responded by pointing out (wwtte) that press freedom was at risk in this country. You then qualified your post by arguing that:

    ‘Freedom is not unlimited and with it comes responsibility…’

    That’s how you’ve changed the goal posts. Again, press freedom is paramount, not to be sidelined by, say, “operational matters”, as this authoritarian government does ad nauseam. Granted, there will be matters that have to remain classified; for example, our activities in war zones – that goes without saying. But, the public has a right to know, for instance, why the investigation into alleged war crimes in Afghanistan is taking so long. I have a sneaking suspicion: one of those subject to the investigation was awarded the VC.

  29. Boerwar says:
    Wednesday, September 4, 2019 at 3:16 pm

    “Can there be any doubt that the whole point of the above was that Bolton, Netanyahu & Co would get what they really wanted – an all-out hot war between the US and Iran?”

    Well, they’ve failed then. No hot war.

    Strange that you are so keen on the Iranian regime – the one that hangs gays and imprisons women for not covering their heads in public.

  30. This afternoon on News Radio I was reminded that in Joh’s time, they used to roll trolleys full of documents into the cabinet room just so that they could declare them classified. I have also read that there is a current tendency for almost everything to be marked Secret or Confidential just for political protection. You may all argue if you like.

  31. Mavis Davis says:
    Wednesday, September 4, 2019 at 3:23 pm

    You might want to talk about that but the original post was about our current system of Governors General versus having a President.

  32. Ray Sanderson @sando88
    ·
    5m

    AFP ‘Keystone Kops’ wearing semi auto ‘shoot to kill’ pistols to a raid on a public servant. WTF are we coming to?

  33. Bucephalus:

    [‘You might want to talk about that but the original post was about our current system of Governors General versus having a President.’]

    I go back to your blanket statement. Anyway, it has been a good chat. I must be away save to suggest that you shouldn’t assume that you’re the only person contributing to this blog who has active service.

  34. Have to say I cringe at the sight of Albanese and Labor pleading for Dutton to allow the Tamil family to stay when for yrs Labor have fallen over themselves to back in Duttons agenda.

  35. 41 people shot in Chicago over the weekend with 8 dead. Apparently this isn’t a mass shooting because it is a Democrat controlled city.

    How good is the US Media?

  36. Kirsten Aiken @kirstenaiken
    · 20m
    Huge story … it’s now been revealed the home the AFP has raided in Canberra is that of intelligence officer Cameron Gill who is married to Australia’s Ambassador to Iraq Joanne Loundes #abcnews #breakingstory @abcnews

  37. Rex Douglas
    says:
    Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 8:27 pm
    Shorten giveth and Shorten takes away. What a sleasebag.
    Boerwar saw what I saw.
    I can’t see how he wouldn’t also agree with me that Shorten should just now go.
    ________________________________
    Parties tend to do this to people. Things they once saw clearly are self-obscured. Particularly if it involves somebody who becomes leader. It’s one of the reasons I really like term limits on MPs and leaders. The Greens should start taking the initiative and transition Di Natale and Bandt into mentor roles and give others a go.

  38. Dana McCauley @Dana_Adele
    · 56m
    Independent MP for Kennedy Bob Katter has chained himself to a shovel on a railway line outside Townsville, in a counter-protest against an environmentalist who chained himself to a drill rig related to Adani’s Carmichael mine rail line. #auspol @TheShovel

  39. 51 people shot in Chicago over the weekend with 8 dead. Apparently this isn’t a mass shooting because it is a Democrat controlled city.

    Or because each shooting was an independent incident wholly unrelated to any of the other shootings. Making none of them able to be accurately called a mass shooting.

    Also, that’s very random. But anyways, please continue with the Trump-inspired talking-points. I hear London has some kind of knife problem or something, too. 🙂

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