YouGov Galaxy: 51-49 to state LNP in Queensland

The first Queensland state poll since February records crashing personal ratings for Annastacia Palaszczuk, and a surge in support for One Nation.

The Courier-Mail has published a Queensland state poll from YouGov Galaxy, the first such poll to appear since February – and the first since the federal election result sent to the stocks of polling in Queensland through the floor. The pollster is continuing to give nothing away about changes to its methods since then.

The results are at least consistent with the difficulties that have beset the government of late, with the Liberal National Party opening a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred. This apparently compares with a 52-48 split in favour of Labor in the February poll, although no two-party result was published at that time, presumably due to the pollster’s lack of confidence in projecting the preferences of such a large non-major party vote – which may have been resolved by the federal election result and the clarity it provided about the flow of One Nation preferences. The primary votes are Labor 32% (down three), LNP 37% (up two), Greens 13% (up two) and One Nation 13% (up five).

Leadership ratings are still worse for Annastacia Palaszczuk, whose approval rating has crashed from 46% to 34%, with disapproval up seven to 45%. Deb Frecklington is on 30% for both approval and disapproval, which are respectively down one point and five points, matched by a spike in her uncommitted rating. The latter is also a feature of the preferred premier rating, on which Palaszczuk is down 13% to 34%, but Frecklington is up only two to 29%. Nothing in the online report on sample size or field work dates.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

43 comments on “YouGov Galaxy: 51-49 to state LNP in Queensland”

  1. I see the denial about the last election results is still strong. Stop letting the right wing scare Labor not campaigning that they will do as the LNP says.

    You will win elections

  2. Gee, supporting environmental vandalism is really working well for Premier Adani, isn’t it. Not. All it’s succeeded in doing is losing Labor supporters. The far right are still going to vote for the LNP or PHON, while the left are abandoning Labor in droves for the Greens. The fact that the Greens and PHON are equal in Queensland of all places says it all really.

  3. “Keep up the protests Greenies. You are doing a wonderful job.”

    ***

    Yes, I agree, we are doing a wonderful job of highlighting the environmental vandalism that’s going on. Keep blaming us though rather than looking in the mirror. That’s been working really well for Labor lately.

  4. And a Happy Saturday Morning to you all on Bludger!

    How are we tracking this morning in our 7 posts to date?

    1. Greens Self-Adulation.
    2. Greens Anti-Labor snark.
    3. Labor Defence. No mention of Greens.
    4. Greens Self Adulation + Greens Anti-Labor Snark + Gratuitous Electoral Advice.
    5. Greens self-adulation + Greens Anti-Labor Snark + Greens Trumpie.
    6. Greens self adulation + Greens Anti-Labor Snark.
    7. Neutral.

    Posts 1-7 summarized as follows.

    Neutral Statement = 1
    Pro Labor Statement = 1
    Anti Greens Statement = 0
    Greens Anti Labor Snark = 4
    Greens Self-Adulation 3.
    Greens Trumpie* = 1
    Greens Gratuitous Electoral Advice = 1.

    *Greens Trumpie…’the Left are abandoning Labor in droves.’ Fact check. The Greens have lost 495,000 Senate votes this decade.

  5. “Greens Trumpie…’the Left are abandoning Labor in droves.’ Fact check. The Greens have lost 495,000 Senate votes this decade.”

    ***

    Total primary votes gained by Greens in the Senate from 2009-19: + 851,403

    Total primary votes lost by the Greens in the Senate from 2009-19: – 507,727

    Gained – lost = overall increase of + 343,676

    We have gained far more Senate votes in this decade than we have lost. I honestly don’t know why you keep doing this to yourself.

    Total primary votes gained by Labor in the Senate from 2009-19: + 165,722

    Total primary votes lost by Labor in the Senate from 2009-19: – 1,062,609

    Labor gained – lost = overall decrease of – 896,887

  6. The Greens are down around 231,000 Reps votes since their peak vote this decade*. The Greens improvement in the last election over the previous election was .17%. At that real rate of improvement, the Greens vote will once again reach their Representatives peak in the 2046 Federal election.

    The Greens are down 495,000 Senate votes since their peak this decade. At this real rate of improvement, the Greens Senate vote will get back to this decade’s peak in the 2025 Federal election.

    Both Greens and Labor have lost votes from their respective peaks this decade.
    It is difficult to know where Greens and Labor votes went as it is highly likely that to some extent votes went in both directions and/or to the Coalition and other minor parties.

    From decadal peaks, the claim that the Labor ‘Left’ is losing votes to the Greens (when the Greens have lost hundreds of thousands of votes themselves) is not substantiated by any of the available facts. It may be happening but it is not substantiated. Of course across the decade and within the decade there would certainly have been flows in all sorts of directions.

    It is equally possible to claim that the Greens Right lost votes to Labor and that the Labor Right lost votes to parties like PHON, UAP, the Nationals and the Liberals.

    At the Federal level, and looking at the total electoral shifts from various decadal highs for all parties and their relationship with the most recent election outcomes, the most logical general statement is that there has been a large move from the Left and the Centre Left to the Centre Right and the Far Right.

    On the available numbers, one Greens electoral statement can be put to bed, though. Straight after the 2016 election Di Natale promised that the Greens would form government within 20 years.

    There are several other propositions that are supported by the voting patterns. The Far Left’s Culture War stances are electoral poison. Outrage is probably counter productive.

    *As noted previously this should be qualified because the percentages are based on total eligible voters not on actual votes.

  7. There are two items of information in the weekend MSM which bear repeating.

    1. Unit approvals are at a seven year low.
    2. The tax cuts have not translated into consumer spending.

  8. ‘Firefox says:
    Saturday, August 31, 2019 at 12:18 pm

    “Greens Trumpie…’the Left are abandoning Labor in droves.’ Fact check. The Greens have lost 495,000 Senate votes this decade.”’

    Where did the 495,00 Greens lost votes come from? The come from comparing the Greens highest Senate vote this decade with their vote in the last election.

    I am not arguing that Labor has not lost more votes than the Greens and that Labor has some massive questions to answer.

    Given the failure of the Greens in every last state and territory election (bar Queensland) and the Federal House of Representatives and the Senate to achieve their previous peak vote in each of the legislatures, it seems that perhaps the Greens should be doing some humble reflection.

    At the very least, it seems reasonable for the Greens to consider whether their manic, persistent and totally lop-sided attacks on Labor have benefited the Right this decade.

  9. Again, Boerwar, you have put your foot in it by misrepresenting the facts.

    It’s very easy to judge the performance of the two parties over the course of the decade. All you have to do is subtract the results of the 2007 election (which is what the numbers still were in 2009 when the decade started) from the results of the 2019 election.

    House:

    Greens 2019 (1,482,923) – 2007 (967,789) = a massive INCREASE of + 515,134

    Labor 2019 (4,752,160) – 2007 (5,388,184) = a massive DECREASE of -636,024

    2019: https://results.aec.gov.au/24310/Website/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-24310-NAT.htm
    2007: https://results.aec.gov.au/13745/Website/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-13745-NAT.htm

    Senate:

    Greens 2019 (1,488,427) – 2007 (1,144,751) = a massive INCREASE of +343,676

    Labor 2019 (4,204,313) – 2007 (5,101,200) = a massive DECREASE of -896,887

    2019: https://results.aec.gov.au/24310/Website/SenateStateFirstPrefsByGroup-24310-NAT.htm
    2007: https://results.aec.gov.au/13745/Website/SenateStateFirstPrefsByGroup-13745-NAT.htm

    You can come up with whatever spin you want mate. The cold hard facts from the AEC prove that Labor has declined over the last decade. Labor is in a MUCH worse position in 2019 than they were in 2009. MUCH worse. You know that to be true.

    The Greens on the other hand are in a much better position than we were in back in 2009. We’ve got far more people voting for us now than we did back then, just as we have far more MPs and councilors now than we did back then too. The Greens have had a really strong decade and I thank you for providing me with the opportunity to highlight that fact.

  10. As a Queenslander I can assure you the polling is nothing to do with green (pro or anti) idee fixes and everything to do with Trad’s house and the chief of staff’s business grant.

    The fall in 2pp is actually not too bad but the drop in the Premiers approval is very concerning.

  11. ‘Firefox says:
    Saturday, August 31, 2019 at 3:04 pm

    Again, Boerwar, you have put your foot in it by misrepresenting the facts.

    It’s very easy to judge the performance of the two parties over the course of the decade. All you have to do is subtract the results of the 2007 election (which is what the numbers still were in 2009 when the decade started) from the results of the 2019 election.’

    Cherry picking, I am afraid.

    What I have done is eminently reasonable. I have compared the highest vote the Greens achieved in any election over the past ten years and compared that total with their latest vote.

    There is no reason why I can’t do that. There is every reason for the Greens to do that. Because it leads them to an important electoral question. Where did 495,000 Senate voters go that once voted for us and now don’t vote for us? This is, you will agree, an important question. Now, you might want to reply to that question by finding some other basis for comparison. Go head. The one thing you chosen basis for comparison will not do is explain why once upon a time, compared with right now, 495,000 voters were prepared to vote for the Greens who do not do so now. Ignoring that fact will not make it go away.

    And, yes, if it makes you feel any better, Labor is in an even worse situation.

    I can understand why you do not like the consequences of this approach – comparing the Greens’ very best every outcome with the Greens Party current outcome.

    One reason you do not like this approach is that your latest vote is 495,000 votes LESS than your best vote. I can understand why that is an uncomfortable truth.

    You have chosen to compare the beginning of the decade with the very end of the decade. But why do you stop there? 40 years ago the Greens’ Party vote was 0% and that means that ALL your current totals are better than they were 40 years ago.

    My general point still stands. Compared to your peak vote, you guys have gone backwards in every state and territory except Queensland and in the Reps and the Senate.

    My suggestion is that since slagging Labor does not seem to be working for you electorally, perhaps you should take up slagging the Coalition instead.

    I would take it a couple of steps further.

    Instead of having policies that most Australians will never, ever accept – such as disarming the ADF – that you review your policies for a broader acceptability.

    I would add that there no longer seems to be much scope for electoral gain through outraging. In fact, given the length and breadth of the culture wars, it seems that electorally the Right are trouncing the Centre Left and the Left.

  12. ‘Historyintime says:
    Saturday, August 31, 2019 at 3:07 pm

    As a Queenslander I can assure you the polling is nothing to do with green (pro or anti) idee fixes and everything to do with Trad’s house and the chief of staff’s business grant.

    The fall in 2pp is actually not too bad but the drop in the Premiers approval is very concerning.’

    Your sample of one is not convincing.

  13. Boerwar,

    Well I actually live in Queensland and can see what’s going on. The media is about 95% about the integrity crisis. Conversely Adani and so forth are just background noise. The abruptness of the Premier’s fall from grace is highly indicative of a specific trigger rather than longer term matters.

    Not everything is about the Greens. Except on this site apparently. I don’t mind a bit of obsessional content but the green thing is becoming really tedious.

  14. https://results.aec.gov.au/15508/Website/SenateStateFirstPrefsByGroup-15508-NAT.htm

    Labors senate vote in 2010: 4,469,734
    Labor senate vote in 2019: 2,804,018

    What I have done is eminently reasonable. I have compared the highest vote the Labor achieved in any election over the past ten years and compared that total with their latest vote.

    There is no reason why I can’t do that. There is every reason for the Labor to do that. Because it leads them to an important electoral question. Where did 1,665,716 Senate voters go that once voted for us and now don’t vote for us? This is, you will agree, an important question. Now, you might want to reply to that question by finding some other basis for comparison. Go head. The one thing you chosen basis for comparison will not do is explain why once upon a time, compared with right now, 1,665,716 voters were prepared to vote for the Labor who do not do so now. Ignoring that fact will not make it go away.

  15. As for saying the Greens attacking labor caused them to lose votes:

    https://results.aec.gov.au/20499/Website/SenateStateFirstPrefsByGroup-20499-NAT.htm
    2016 Senate Election: Greens 1,197,657 votes

    https://results.aec.gov.au/24310/Website/SenateStateFirstPrefsByGroup-24310-NAT.htm
    2019 Senate Election: Greens 1,488,427 votes.

    So what ever they did between 2016 and 2019 caused them to gain voters. And according to posters here, what they did was attack Labor. So on these figures it looks like attacking Labor causes the Green vote to go up.

  16. I have gone back through the AEC results to 2007:

    Labor 4,204313 4,123,084 4,038,591 4,469,734 5,101,200
    Greens 1,488,427 1,197,657 1,159,588 1,667,315 1,144,751

    So on these figures what ever the Greens did between 2010 and 2013 was very bad for their votes.

    Every other election they have increased their votes from the previous election. This previous election in particular was the second best improvement of the lot.

    Also what ever Labor did between 2007 and 2010 was very bad and they have not recovered since.

  17. Because the AEC groups national Senate votes by the name of the ticket and in NSW the Labor Party nominated some of its candidates under the name Country Labor, making the group Labor/Country Labor. Exactly the same reason the AEC has separate Senate totals for Liberal and joint ticket Liberal/Nationals.

  18. Antony,

    I was on the shortlist for your first ABC job in 1989. Ended up withdrawing because I got a job in the Federal Treasury. Sliding doors as they say.

  19. So, avoiding the cherry tree, and dipping the psephological toe into the water…

    … and assuming that the Greens want to improve on their best ever percentages…

    The highest actual Reps vote the Greens got in this decade was 11.76% nearly ten years ago (2010)
    In 2019, they were still well below this total.

    The highest actual Senate vote the Greens got in this decade was 13.11% nearly ten years ago.
    In 2019, they still well below this total.

    So ten years of bitching and whining about Labor, indulging in unrestricted Culture Wars Outrage, and selling the unilateral disarmament of the ADF, has got the Greens further back than when they started this decade.

  20. Ben Raue – Voting system change boosts Labor and Greens in Brisbane City

    http://www.tallyroom.com.au/38964

    The government is proceeding with the other key piece, which would switch from optional preferential voting (OPV) to compulsory preferential voting (CPV) for elections of mayors and for single-member wards (the map of which councils would be covered by this change is included in this post). This echoes the change made to the state electoral system prior to the 2017 state election.

    This system change will most likely have the biggest impact in the City of Brisbane, Australia’s biggest and most important local council, where optional preferential voting has seen a lot of Labor and Greens votes exhaust rather than helping the other party, and where the LNP’s large council majority could be under threat.

  21. @Boerwar

    The thing is after working with Labor for the 2010-2013 period the Greens suffered their only loss of votes.

    Every period where they have been against Labor their votes have increased.

    Looking at the results it is very clear that working with Labor hurts the Green in votes,

  22. ‘Catprog says:
    Saturday, August 31, 2019 at 7:16 pm

    @Boerwar

    The thing is after working with Labor for the 2010-2013 period the Greens suffered their only loss of votes.

    Every period where they have been against Labor their votes have increased.

    Looking at the results it is very clear that working with Labor hurts the Green in votes,’

    Oh, there are always reasons! Your ‘explanation’ is probably the reason why Di Natale was asking/demanding during the 2019 Campaign that Labor work with the Greens.

    The first thing to be done is to establish the electoral facts.

  23. ‘Catprog says:
    Saturday, August 31, 2019 at 7:22 pm

    @Boerwar

    Is it true that the only time the Green vote decreased was the election when they worked with Labor?’

    Nope. Have a look at the history of Greens votes in the states and territories. The Greens are all over the shop, electorally.

  24. I will restate my question then.

    Is is true the only time the federal Green vote has decreased has been the time after they worked with Labor?

  25. @Boerwar

    Ok.

    So are you saying they should stop doing what has been increasing their vote. Instead they should do a strategy that the last time they tried, it caused a drop in their vote that they are still recovering from?

  26. ‘Catprog says:
    Saturday, August 31, 2019 at 7:41 pm

    @Boerwar

    Ok.

    So are you saying they should stop doing what has been increasing their vote. Instead they should do a strategy that the last time they tried, it caused a drop in their vote that they are still recovering from?’

    False premise. Their vote is lower now than it was at the start of the decade in both the Reps and the Senate.

  27. The result would actually be quite depressing for the LNP. They should be miles ahead on 2pp with what is going on in the ALP right now.

    The bigger concern for both parties is not the far left or right parties but the middle ground voters who are being caught between the self proclaimed moralistic rants of the far left Greens and far right One Nation who are both getting their messages out vs the silent middle who will come out with baseball bats on Election Day but nobody will know which party they will dump on until it is on them.

  28. If I recall, the Andrews Government copped a couple of poor polls approximately a year out from the State Election in Victoria and we all know how that ended.

    At this stage it gives Labor a chance to identify the important issues for the voters, fine tune what they are doing and get some momentum going for another term.

  29. Maybe the Greens should decide the 3 or 4 things they regard as the most important of their policies.
    A check of the position held by Labor or the L/LP would reveal the policy that LEAST meets their desired position.
    That party is the one that should be campaigned against. It seems that many years of attacking Labor trying to force it to adopt Green policies prior to elections has allowed the most damaging agenda to be implemented by the Coalition.
    Labor and Green environmental policies will not get a look in if Labor is in opposition. Greens have never understood that 50% of something is better than 100% of f#$% all.
    Take a leaf out of PHONs book at the last Federal election. While Labor pledged to spend around $B1 in development in every Regional Qld seat to the L/NPs nil, PHON still managed to convince the Country folk to vote for them in the Reps and successfully got their Senator off to Canberra.
    The Adani convoy etc showed that the tacticians in the Greens were done like a dinner by their PHON counterparts.
    Maybe its time for something completely different – attack the major Party that cares least about our environment.

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