YouGov Galaxy: 55-45 to federal Coalition in Queensland

A Queensland-only federal poll from YouGov Galaxy splits the difference between the actual election result and the pre-election polling that singularly failed to predict it.

The Courier-Mail/Sunday Mail has followed up yesterday’s YouGov Galaxy state results, which were covered here, with the federal voting intention findings from the same poll. This records the Coalition with a 55-45 lead in the state, from primary votes of Coalition 40%, Labor 29%, One Nation 13% and Greens 12%. However, Scott Morrison records a commanding 46-23 over Anthony Albanese as preferred prime minister.

According to taste, you can interpret the voting intention results as:

• An improvement for Labor on the election result, at which the Coalition recorded a thumping 58.6-41.4 two-party preferred win in the state, from primary votes of Coalition 43.7%, Labor 26.7%, Greens 10.3% and One Nation 8.9%;

• A surge to the Coalition compared with the last YouGov Galaxy poll from Queensland, which was conducted a week-and-a-half before the May 18 election and proved, like all pre-election polling from the state, to be very badly astray. That poll had the Coalition leading 51-49, from primary votes of Coalition 38%, Labor 33%, Greens 9% and One Nation 9%.

The latter result, which was similar to Newspoll state breakdowns of the time, is worth revisiting, as it more-or-less accurately predicted the vote shares for the minor parties (albeit a shade too low for the Greens), and may have done well enough for the major parties among women – but it very clearly dropped the ball among Queensland men, who plainly didn’t come close to the dead even two-party split attributed to them by the poll.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,780 comments on “YouGov Galaxy: 55-45 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

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  1. Bushfire Bill
    Wednesday, September 4, 2019 at 10:03 pm
    Nath feebly attempts irony:
    Would it be ironic to say that you need to look up the difference between irony and sarcasm?

  2. Mavis Davis says:
    Wednesday, September 4, 2019 at 10:03 pm

    I did my Reserve Recruit Course at the then HMAS Leeuwin – now Leeuwin Barracks and about to be sold off – which I think is a mistake as has many of the ADF land disposals.

  3. Mavis Davis @ #1749 Wednesday, September 4th, 2019 – 10:03 pm


    [‘I attended a Church School, was an Alter Server and sang in Choirs. No abuse.

    I also went to RMC Duntroon and didn’t experience or see any bastardisation or abuse.’]

    My first posting was HMAS Leeuwin in ’65. I too found no buse – the best year of my life, in fact. But’s all been downhill since that -I mean the curmudgeons GG & BB. Oh shite, that’s withdrawn?

    It’s hard for you to be a personality when you have no personality.

  4. Bushfire Bill:

    [‘Mavis, you have either very limited reading skills or poor emotional intelligence if you can’t see how it’s possible to disapprove of a man personally while simultaneously supporting his right to have his legal options fully exercised.’]

    Cobber, you’d the best judge. The moderator has kindly asked us to to get off Pell’s case. I will, however, suggest that you, GG, are hopelessly compromised. Sorry WB.

  5. Bushfire Bill
    Wednesday, September 4, 2019 at 10:12 pm
    Would it be ironic to say that you need to look up the difference between irony and sarcasm?
    I’m amazed you know such big words.
    No. The answer is that it would be sarcastic to say that.

  6. GG
    I’ve read the first nine Kinky Friedman books. I don’t know many he’s up to now.
    2, 8, 3, 5, 61, 0, 0 in seven innings for Warner. Even the Australian selectors might notice that run of outs.

  7. Diogenes
    Wednesday, September 4, 2019 at 10:17 pm
    I’ve read the first nine Kinky Friedman books. I don’t know many he’s up to now.
    2, 8, 3, 5, 61, 0, 0 in seven innings for Warner. Even the Australian selectors might notice that run of outs.
    Some damn fine catches though!

  8. Diogenes @ #1762 Wednesday, September 4th, 2019 – 10:17 pm

    I’ve read the first nine Kinky Friedman books. I don’t know many he’s up to now.
    2, 8, 3, 5, 61, 0, 0 in seven innings for Warner. Even the Australian selectors might notice that run of outs.

    Yeah, he’s out of form and is becoming Broad’s bunny.

    It looks like a belter of a pitch.

    But, ultimately the job of the openers is to occupy the crease, take the sheen off the ball and occupy the crease for a reasonable time.

    Warner getting out so early, so often puts pressure on his opening partner and the whole middle order.

  9. DM
    Totally agree. He’s not Steve Smith. And he’s a monster fuckwit. Should have culled him.
    The openers from both teams have been terrible so far. Roy has been as bad as Warner.
    He’s dropped some shockers as well.

  10. GG:

    [‘It’s hard for you to be a personality when you have no personality.’]

    Verily, is that the best you can do?

    Were’s so enamoured of your wit, we await in trepidation for more?

  11. Interesting interview on Late Night Live just now. Phillip Adams interviews British journalist Ian Dunt on the turmoil in the mother of Parliaments and the Trumpification of the Conservatives.

    Jeremy Corbyn is finally getting the stratagy right, treating that clown Boris as the con artist and liar he is, not allowing an election until “No Deal” is off the table in law.

  12. Greensborough Growler:

    [‘Is that another Catholic observation?’]

    No. Just a generallisation. I dislike religion per se. I can see no point in it. But thanks for not being aggressive.

  13. Bucephalus @ #1729 Wednesday, September 4th, 2019 – 9:34 pm

    Yabba says:
    Wednesday, September 4, 2019 at 7:48

    I attended a Church School, was an Alter Server and sang in Choirs. No abuse.

    I also went to RMC Duntroon and didn’t experience or see any bastardisation or abuse.

    What’s an alter, horse’s arse? Is it a halter wivout tha haitch?

    At least your sad history helps to explain your warped take on the world. Did they teach you about the domino theory and yellow peril at Duntroon, and how evil the Vietnamese were? Do you still believe in sky fairies? Are you gullible?

  14. Douglas and Milko @ #1774 Wednesday, September 4th, 2019 – 11:12 pm

    Remember to turn off your outside lights, except when you are actively using them:

    I knew – I just knew that, if I kept reading these threads, the benefits would appear.

    Boerwar – please take note.

    Turn the damned outside lights off —- NOW ❗

  15. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. As I type this I am watching the UK House of Commons debate, it is enthralling. The vote for an early election has just failed to achieve the necessary 2/3 majority.

    The government has a plan, and some prayers, for the Australian economy and not even the softest set of numbers in a decade is going to change its mind says an unimpressed Shane Wright.
    Without some proactive steps from policymakers to boost the productivity of our economy, the 2020s may be a disappointing decade for Australians says the AFP.
    Josh Frydenberg says the national accounts repudiate those trying to talk the Australian economy down, but weakness in the private sector is continuing to play out, writes Jennifer Hewett.
    And Peter Martin explains why we’ve the weakest economy since the global financial crisis with few clear ways out.
    No surprise, but shocking: there’s no other way to spin Australia’s GDP says Greg Jericho. Some of his exhibits are alarming.
    Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has been let off lightly by the headlines reporting “only” the weakest economic growth since the GFC, thanks to a little cherry-picking of 12-month periods writes Michael Pascoe.
    Former editor-in-chief of The Sydney Morning Herald Darren Goodsir proclaims that Nine’s Liberal fundraiser is a serious blemish for independent journalism.
    Michelle Grattan writes about the outgoing ASIO head hoping for greater public preparedness to defend Australian sovereignty.
    The Hong Kong demonstrators have had their first victory as the extradition bill is withdrawn. But it’s over yet.
    A key indicator of NSW’s economic performance slumped to zero in the last quarter as Australia recorded its weakest annual growth in a decade report an augmented dynamic duo.
    Home Affairs and the AFP are closing ranks over yesterday’s raid on a former top defence adviser’s home.
    If Alan Jones is free to speak, in a free market his sponsors are too says Richard Denniss.
    Obstetricians are demanding an urgent review of Medicare rebates after the cost for women who give birth in the private system spiked writes Dana McCauley. It’s now costing some private patients $3200 out of pocket for a baby.
    Alexandra Smith reports that conservative activists inside the Liberal Party are now considering a motion condemning the state’s abortion bill.
    Two law lecturers make the case for allowing the Tamil family to stay.
    And Anthony Albanese has spoken out against deportation of the struggling Biloela family, writes Dr Jennifer Wilson.,13072
    Michael West writes that control of Australia’s largest aged care and retirement village company (pure-play) is poised to fall to the tax haven of Bermuda – to be owned by the same group of financial engineers who recently took the country’s largest private hospital business to the Cayman Islands.
    The big banks are already selling fewer loans through their branches as customers look to mortgage brokers. Now the bar on competition is about to be raised again writes Elizabeth Knight.
    Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe may have to explain why the institution has failed to hit its inflation target under a plan being considered by Josh Frydenberg.
    The government is close to securing the passage of legislation making it easier to deregister rogue unions and officials although Centre Alliance wants greater clarity to ensure the bill deals with egregious conduct “and does not prevent a responsible union official doing what they normal do”, including protecting workers’ safety and social wellbeing.
    Christopher Knaus reports on yesterday’s ICAC proceedings.
    Rod Meyer tells us that sixteen frontbench politicians have not declared where their superannuation is invested despite a requirement agreed to by the House of Representatives stating they should do so.
    According to Jennifer Duke Telstra chief executive Andy Penn has criticised the National Broadband Network for spending on new fibre connections for businesses, claiming the move is out of step with the $51 billion taxpayer-funded company’s purpose of connecting households to the internet.
    The sharp wobble in US financial markets on Tuesday was a response to a tangible sign that the escalating trade conflict with China is damaging the US economy. The markets are sending trump a clear message writes Stephen Bartholomeusz.
    Hairbrained Hanson’s plan to combat Medicare fraud by placing photos on cards would cost half a billion dollars and have limited effect, bureaucrats say.
    The accountability provided by the parliamentary committee system is broken and it is “self-evident who broke it”, according to Law Council of Australia president Arthur Moses SC.
    Police suspected former barrister Nicola Gobbo had been a major drug dealer at Melbourne University and wanted to place her on surveillance over the murders of two underworld figures at an Auskick game in June 2003 reports Tammy Mills.
    Paul Karp tells us how the Law Council’s president Arthur Moses says proposed law contains a ‘narrower’ protection for racial discrimination than exists under section 18C.
    Morrison is resisting widespread calls for the government to allow a Tamil family facing deportation to Sri Lanka to remain in Australia, saying he will not chase “Twitter public sentiment”.
    Ben Schneider reports that John Setka’s rift with much of his own union has deepened with the CFMMEU’s national office moving buildings in a bid to distance themselves from Mr Setka.
    Retail investors will accept lower dividends if companies are more honest, transparent and socially responsible, with their values evolving beyond short-term returns following the unscrupulous behaviour revealed at the banking royal commission explains Stephen Miles.
    A collapse in the spot price for electricity in Queensland on Wednesday morning to as low as minus $1000 a megawatt-hour has rattled the industry, and raised questions as to who will bear the losses triggered by a flood of solar generation.
    Peter FitzSimons says reckons that a case decided in the Federal Court on Tuesday has major implications for the Israel Folau case.
    Global heating made Hurricane Dorian bigger, wetter – and more deadly.
    A US food-on-demand giant has arrived in Australia just as tensions between local restaurateurs and major food delivery players escalate. DoorDash, the United States’ largest on-demand food platform, launched in Melbourne on Wednesday, with the Victorian culinary capital becoming DoorDash’s first non-US location.
    The New Zealand government has performed a spectacular mea culpa on one of Labour’s signature election policies, walking away from a pledge to build 100,000 affordable new homes within a decade.
    Nick Miller writes about the terrible position Boris Johnson has worked himself into.
    Boris Johnson intuitively understands that hard-Brexit chaos will sustain his premiership. He must be stopped says the editorial in the UK Guardian.
    Kate McClymont examines the less than good behaviour of the deified Charlie Teo.

    Cartoon Corner

    What a beauty from David Rowe!

    From Matt Golding.

    Another cracker from Mark David.

    Cathy Wilcox and Boris’s Brexit landing.

    Andrew Dyson on Johnson’s treatment by parliament.

    Zanetti with Johnson invoking Churchill.

    From John Shakespeare.

    Nice work from Alan Moir.

    Jon Kudelka cleans up at AFP HQ.

    From the US

  16. The bloke interviewing Chalmers on RN is doing his very best yeah, but…..yeah, but……yeah, but…..yeah, of interviewing Labor people….the better Chalmers does the more yeah, but….yeah, but……..yeah, but….

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