YouGov Galaxy: 55-45 to federal Coalition in Queensland

A Queensland-only federal poll from YouGov Galaxy splits the difference between the actual election result and the pre-election polling that singularly failed to predict it.

The Courier-Mail/Sunday Mail has followed up yesterday’s YouGov Galaxy state results, which were covered here, with the federal voting intention findings from the same poll. This records the Coalition with a 55-45 lead in the state, from primary votes of Coalition 40%, Labor 29%, One Nation 13% and Greens 12%. However, Scott Morrison records a commanding 46-23 over Anthony Albanese as preferred prime minister.

According to taste, you can interpret the voting intention results as:

• An improvement for Labor on the election result, at which the Coalition recorded a thumping 58.6-41.4 two-party preferred win in the state, from primary votes of Coalition 43.7%, Labor 26.7%, Greens 10.3% and One Nation 8.9%;

• A surge to the Coalition compared with the last YouGov Galaxy poll from Queensland, which was conducted a week-and-a-half before the May 18 election and proved, like all pre-election polling from the state, to be very badly astray. That poll had the Coalition leading 51-49, from primary votes of Coalition 38%, Labor 33%, Greens 9% and One Nation 9%.

The latter result, which was similar to Newspoll state breakdowns of the time, is worth revisiting, as it more-or-less accurately predicted the vote shares for the minor parties (albeit a shade too low for the Greens), and may have done well enough for the major parties among women – but it very clearly dropped the ball among Queensland men, who plainly didn’t come close to the dead even two-party split attributed to them by the poll.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,780 comments on “YouGov Galaxy: 55-45 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

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  1. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Now Barnaby Joyce has weighed in on the Tamil deportation matter, urging the government to reconsider, especially given the support from the Queensland town where the family lived and work before they were apprehended.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/tamil-asylum-seeker-children-constantly-crying-on-christmas-island-20190831-p52mor.html
    The children are “constantly crying”, according to supporters of a Tamil asylum seeker family taken to Christmas Island for possible deportation from Australia.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6359462/tamil-asylum-seeker-children-constantly-crying-on-christmas-island/?cs=14350
    “The Coalition is calling for religious freedom – so why has it forsaken the media’s?”, asks Katharine Murphy.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/aug/31/australian-journalism-must-fight-for-its-future-o-because-the-times-could-not-be-more-serious
    Over the past few years, we’ve seen our Government go from bad to worse while news and mainstream media fuel the fire, writes Grant Turner.
    https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/our-countrys-political-decline-isnt-being-helped-by-the-mainstream-media,13062
    The Koziol-Bagshaw duo tells us about how ministers and staff charged taxpayers millions to travel the country during the 2019 election campaign.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/ministers-and-staff-charged-taxpayers-millions-to-travel-the-country-during-election-campaign-20190830-p52mip.html
    The ALP needs to reshape its image. A discount supermarket bag might be suggestive of its working-class roots, if not its illegal cash donations writes Jacqui Maley.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/what-exactly-is-the-labor-brand-these-days-an-aldi-shopping-bag-20190830-p52mh3.html
    Former counsel assisting the ICAC Geoffrey Watson $100,000 cash in a shopping bag is eye catching, but it’s not the real issue. He says political parties are utterly shameless in what they will do to get their hands on money. Bear in mind that the laws which are being broken are being broken by the same kinds of people who made those same laws. This is a real call to arms.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/100-000-cash-in-a-shopping-bag-is-eye-catching-but-it-s-not-the-real-issue-20190830-p52mda.html
    With China wielding its big stick over Australia, our monopsonistic relationship could tip it into recession, warns Michael Sainsbury.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/australias-monopsonistic-relationship-with-beijing-could-tip-it-into-recession/
    In a very good contribution Julie Szego explains why the discrimination bill saves the religious lobby from themselves.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/discrimination-bill-saves-the-religious-lobby-from-themselves-20190830-p52mgj.html
    Researchers say hackers indiscriminately infected Apple iPhones with spyware over two years, in what security experts have called an alarming security failure for a company whose calling card is privacy.
    https://www.smh.com.au/technology/operation-indiscriminately-infects-thousands-of-iphones-with-spyware-20190831-p52mo6.html
    Ross McSwain writes about the ubiquitousness and stigma of mental health problems in Australia.
    https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/health-and-wellness/no-one-sends-you-a-get-well-card-in-the-psych-ward-20190831-p52mn5.html
    The taxpayer-funded infrastructure business is now not expected to come out of the red until 2023, making it the third consecutive miss of its targets reports Jennifer Duke.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/national-broadband-network-won-t-break-even-until-2023-20190830-p52mau.html
    The leasing battle between retailers and shopping centre landlords is set to heat up with Myer and other retailers likely to join David Jones’ “aggressive” stance in renegotiating leases. This showdown has been looming for years.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/battle-between-landlords-and-retailers-heats-up-20190830-p52meq.html
    Simon Cowan has some ideas on how to resolve the Newstart debate.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6357045/getting-the-job-done-how-to-resolve-the-newstart-debate/?cs=14329
    Peter FitzSimons is unhappy about the planning hypocrisies with respect to Sydney’s Star Casino.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-big-end-of-town-s-towering-gall-makes-a-mockery-of-fair-play-with-star-casino-20190830-p52mhi.html
    Bill Shorten has likened the leadership of the National Disability Insurance Scheme to a “runaway train” after reports that providers are wasting funds on lavish dinners and five-star hotels.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6359360/ndis-like-a-runaway-train-shorten/?cs=14231
    John Kerry will deliver a keynote speech in Melbourne on Tuesday to agricultural and food industry leaders about changing food habits amid a global population boom and acceleration in global warming.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6359690/john-kerry-gets-tough-on-food-in-australia/?cs=14231&utm_source=website&utm_medium=home&utm_campaign=latestnews
    Nick Miller tells us about the mystery of the Privy Council and its role in the prorogation of the UK parliament.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/how-did-we-get-to-the-brexit-prorogue-the-privy-council-is-where-royalty-still-makes-the-rules-20190831-p52mnt.html
    Senior politicians, a former cabinet secretary and an ex-head of the home civil service have called for a top-level inquiry into how Boris Johnson’s closest aide, Dominic Cummings, was able to sack an adviser to Sajid Javid, the chancellor of the exchequer, without Javid’s knowledge and then order an armed police officer to escort her out of Downing Street in front of staff.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/31/boris-johnson-must-launch-inquiry-dominic-cummings-reign-of-terror
    This bastard is today’s nomination for “Arsehole of the Week”.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6359252/man-who-allegedly-struck-partners-dog-with-shovel-seven-times-has-bail-refused/?cs=14329

    Cartoon Corner

    From Matt Golding.



    Mark David and the economy-deaf Frydenberg.

    Zanetti and the religious freedom act.

    From the US




  2. And, in Queensland, The Greens are surging ahead ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. to be behind One Nation. 🙂

    Any minute now they will be, the next government of Australia!

  4. Max Boot joins fellow former Republican Tom Nichols in declaring he will vote for any Democrat who wins the nomination.

    When asked earlier this month whether he could support Sens. Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren if one became the Democratic presidential nominee, former New York mayor Michael Bloomberg was noncommittal. I have the utmost respect for Bloomberg, whose fiscally conservative and socially liberal views closely mirror my own, but I will vote for any Democratic nominee, even Warren or Sanders, despite my profound disagreement with their far-left agendas.

    If I needed any further confirmation, it came during the second half of August. This was by no means the worst period of the Trump presidency, but it nevertheless offers a snapshot of why President Trump cannot under any circumstances be reelected. Here are 14 of the lowlights:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/08/31/here-are-reasons-ill-vote-any-democrat-over-trump/

  5. The government “pours” money into the NDIS, but washes its hands of the expenditure because it’s a private gravy train. Meanwhile, the executives behave as if they were at the head of a rich bank and the ‘clients’ are suffering.

    Finance Minister Mathias Cormann stressed there is no government agency involved in these accusations.

    “It is a private sector organisation, and it is obviously a matter for them to explain themselves as to how they are conducting their affairs,” Senator Cormann told reporters in Perth.

    He said the government is investing significant funding into providing better care and support to Australians with a disability and their families.

    “Obviously, we want to see that money reach those people who deserve that support,” he said.

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6359360/ndis-like-a-runaway-train-shorten/?cs=14231

  6. Tasmanian Labor leader. Clearly a case of once bitten, twice shy.

    Labor will govern alone or not at all says Labor leader Rebecca White.

    In her speech to the Labor state conference on Sunday, provided to The Advocate, Ms White said it was a mistake to think Labor could ever work with the Greens.

    “We will never make that mistake again,” Ms White said.

    Ms White said Labor was the only party who could be trusted to represent working people.

    “Right now there is a jobs emergency in Tasmania,” Ms White said.

    “As bad as the Liberal government is on jobs – the Greens are just as bad.

    “There is barely an idea that gets floated in this state that doesn’t attract knee-jerk opposition from the Greens.

    https://www.theadvocate.com.au/story/6359459/labor-will-only-govern-alone-says-leader/?cs=87

  7. lizzie,
    It’s a disgrace. The boss of the NDIS Service Provider that my son works for is paying himself $300000/year, employs all his family in one job or another, is buying houses, expensive cars and boats. All while the employees are paid $22/hour to work any hour of the day and night, with no Overtime, no Sick Pay, no Holiday Pay, and definitely no Long Service Leave. They can be dismissed on the whim of the owner of the company who knows that there is a conga line of Unemployed that will be supplied to take his place should he lose his job, from the government Job Agencies.

    Not to mention the fact that the Clients, Severely Disabled People, are basically fed crap and the rest of their care is basic, at best.

    In other words, the NDIS has been bastardised by the Coalition to be just another taxpayer-funded gravy train for the ticks that have seen their best option is to get on board and leave your ethics at the station.

  8. Trump’s history of natural disaster ‘f*ck-ups’ is bad news as Hurricane Dorian approaches: Rick Wilson

    Under a blunt headline, “How Badly Will Trump Fuck Up the Response to Hurricane Dorian?” Wilson explained victims should hope for the best but expect the worst.

    ( Love this bit ) – “Trump’s one brush to date with an actual natural disaster—other than that goddamn confection of Aquanet, 1970s shag carpet remnants, and lemur fur glued to his skull—was the complete fuckup of his response to Hurricanes Irma and Maria when they struck Puerto Rico in September 2017,” the consultant reminded readers.

    “In Trump’s mind, Puerto Ricans aren’t Americans, so why not let the Sea Mexicans get by with hate tweets, paper towel-tossing, and endless bitching about the needs of a U.S. territory that took a direct hit from two storms of historic proportions,” he wrote before speculating how the president will respond this time.

    “There’s one thing we can rely on: Trump will pay more attention to Florida because it’s the home of 29 swing Electoral College votes, but also his own properties,” he wrote

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/08/trumps-history-of-natural-disaster-fck-ups-is-bad-news-as-hurricane-dorian-approaches-rick-wilson/

  9. “There’s one thing we can rely on: Trump will pay more attention to Florida because it’s the home of 29 swing Electoral College votes, but also his own properties,” he wrote

    So true.

  10. This is lovely from Rick Wilson:

    “With at least $271 million drained from FEMA and other government agencies to fund his absurd Campaign Wall, the Trump administration is, as usual, unready for governance beyond the president’s daily Fox & Friends hand job and the daily allotment of mean tweets from a man who conflates presidential timber with the number of likes and retweets,” he added.

    😀

  11. Ohhf! There goes Cat delivering one of those Shorten-like zingers! Ouch!

    Speaking of which, how is our old friend the Member for Maribyrnong? Has he lead Labor – the “party of government” – to victory yet?

  12. C@t

    The NDIS rip-off is something Shorten should pursue, obviously. Do you have concrete examples that you could send to him? I have no NDIS knowledge except what I read in the papers.

  13. And firefox provides yet another example of how, given an opportunity to scrutinise the actions of the current government, the Green default position is to attack the poster and Labor.

    …and then they get all upset when we talk about them enabling the Coalition.

  14. Firefox @ #11 Sunday, September 1st, 2019 – 7:43 am

    Ohhf! There goes Cat delivering one of those Shorten-like zingers! Ouch!

    Speaking of which, how is our old friend the Member for Maribyrnong? Has he lead Labor – the “party of government” – to victory yet?

    And there goes Firefox, back at me with a puerile ‘zinger’ of his own. 😐

    Doesn’t alter the fact that The Greens are now less popular than One Nation in Queensland. 😀

  15. Simon Cowan has some suggestions for getting the LNP on side to lift Newstart.

    Anecdotal evidence from the US in particular also suggests that some people lack the basic life skills (hygiene, punctuality, reliability etc) necessary to sustain employment for any period of time at all.

    His solution, no doubt, would be to introduce a kind of Indue card which checked on their hygiene (washing powder and soap use).

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6357045/getting-the-job-done-how-to-resolve-the-newstart-debate/?cs=14329

  16. lizzie @ #12 Sunday, September 1st, 2019 – 7:49 am

    C@t

    The NDIS rip-off is something Shorten should pursue, obviously. Do you have concrete examples that you could send to him? I have no NDIS knowledge except what I read in the papers.

    Labor has been silent on the NBN why would they bother with NDIS.
    No passion.
    No belief.
    No rage.
    No enthusiasm.

  17. There will be some who will well know and remember the Honourable Justice Jane Mathews AO, the first woman appointed a judge in NSW, first women judge appointed to the Supreme Court of NSW, and first woman president of the AAT, a prodigious worker for indigenous affairs, womens rights, and a huge benefactor to the Arts and music world. And a serious Ring Nutter.*

    Jane died comfortably and peacefully at home last night.

    (*devotee to Wagner’s Ring Cycle)

  18. mundo @ #16 Sunday, September 1st, 2019 – 7:56 am

    lizzie @ #12 Sunday, September 1st, 2019 – 7:49 am

    C@t

    The NDIS rip-off is something Shorten should pursue, obviously. Do you have concrete examples that you could send to him? I have no NDIS knowledge except what I read in the papers.

    Labor has been silent on the NBN why would they bother with NDIS.
    No passion.
    No belief.
    No rage.
    No enthusiasm.

    I’d tell this guy to take a hike along a very long Tasmanian mountain track but he is gutless and has decided to run away from criticism by me so he can snipe and snark pointlessly to his black heart’s content.

  19. Not Gerard!

    Insiders ABCVerified account@InsidersABC
    3m3 minutes ago
    Coming up at 9am on #Insiders, @frankelly08 interviews Shadow Education Min. @tanya_plibersek & @mpbowers talks pics with @FionaKatauskas. On the couch are @latingle, @markgkenny & Gerard Henderson.

    Plus, @rabbitandcoffee shares his take on one of the week’s biggest stories!

  21. Plus, @rabbitandcoffee shares his take on one of the week’s biggest stories!

    That will be Huw Parkinson’s take on NSW Labor at ICAC. No doubt about it.

  22. Carole Cadwalladr@carolecadwalla
    · Aug 30
    OMG!!!
    A v small ray of sunshine in ongoing national shitshow..but @BBC has introduced a new policy on think tanks! That includes info on “funding”!!
    *faints*
    Look! And it only took all of us going on & on for years (& a strategic ambush of the director general at a public event)

  23. More mass shootings under way in the US. Guys driving around in cars in Odessa and MidlandTX shooting people at random.
    What a joint!

  24. Aaron Dodd @AaronDodd
    · 27m

    The #hometobilo situation is Dutton demonstrating his raw unrestrained power. He has done it deliberately to show that Morrison is powerless to stop him. His actions tell his party, voters and @ScottMorrisonMP that he is the real power now, not the PM. Frightening stuff. #auspol

  25. Who’d live in America? Not me.

    There is an active shooting situation going on in the area between the cities of Midland and Odessa, Texas, according to Devin Sanchez, a spokesman for the City of Odessa.

    There are 10 confirmed injuries, possibly up to 20 injured, Sanchez said. There is one person confirmed dead, he said. One of those shot is a law enforcement officer, but it is unclear if the officer is injured or dead, Sanchez said.

    Sanchez said there is a person in a gold Toyota driving around shopping centers and shooting people from his vehicle. The area is near 32nd and 191, on the east side of Odessa.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2019/08/31/us/odessa-texas-active-shooter/index.html?utm_source=twCNN&utm_content=2019-08-31T21%3A52%3A44&utm_term=link&utm_medium=social

  28. ItzaDream:

    A sad loss in so many ways and areas.
    Although you did not name her then, I suspected of whom you were talking a few months ago when you wrote of waiting in emergency with her after a SSO performance.

    Sympathy to you on this loss of a friend.

  29. I was actually barracking for Peter Dutton to become Prime Minister, I knew he would not last long in the office and possibly split the Liberal Party. Since nobody can win an federal election in Australia by being as openly racist as Donald Trump is., Scott Morrison knows this very well.

    Because while the LNP would have done as well in Queensland as they did in the recent federal election. However the government would have been hammered especially in Melbourne, along with leafer areas of the other major cities and even Western Sydney.

    However I believe it would have made a lot of people face up to the racism in Australian society. Because the Trump presidency has done exactly that to American society.

    Anyway Dutton is really in no position to seriously challenge Scott Morrison’s leadership. Morrison I bet knows that, hence why Morrison allows Dutton pretty much free reign in the Home Affairs portfolio.

  30. 30 people have been shot, with at least one dead in an active-shooter situation in Odessa, TX.

    If only they allowed people to have guns in Texas and carry them in public, this could have been stopped.

  33. Trump reversed his previous endorsement of background checks for all gun purchases after meeting with NRA chief Wayne LaPierre and being lobbied by gun advocates. That was only a few days ago. And now this crazy dual mass shooting effort in Texas!

  35. There is an active shooting situation going on…

    Can they quit with the euphemisms already!?! This is an active mass murder event! 😡

  40. Bennelong Lurker @ #28 Sunday, September 1st, 2019 – 8:28 am

    ItzaDream:

    A sad loss in so many ways and areas.
    Although you did not name her then, I suspected of whom you were talking a few months ago when you wrote of waiting in emergency with her after a SSO performance.

    Sympathy to you on this loss of a friend.

    Thanks B L. For me, I was so lucky to have known her; I’m so much the better for knowing her. The city, country and the world knew her, and are all the less for her leaving us. Her contributions to the music world – major sponsorships, funding artists, start ups, commissions, enthusiasm – were massive. And then the rest.

  42. Mundo
    No passion.
    No belief.
    No rage.
    No enthusiasm.
    That just about sums up your brief. A brief you play out wonderfully well with your other personas, contributing absolutely nil to the advancement of rational debate.
    Just a dull thud.

  46. Liked Ed Husic’s line to Tim Wilson, wtte, ‘Watch out, that rubber bullet you just fired at Labor might bounce back and hit you in the head!’ 😆

  47. How many Laborites are happy ON is polling higher than the Greens in Queensland? Labor is always trying to woo the latter back into its fold. Under Albanese, a supposed authentic Labor leftie lol, it’s pivoting really really hard in that direction.

  48. Gerard Henderson, voice dripping with sarcasm: “Going with Alan Jones now are you?”

    Alan Jones will have noted it. However, it may be a harbinger of Jones’ decline in influence.

  49. Pegasus @ #47 Sunday, September 1st, 2019 – 9:12 am

    How many Laborites are happy ON is polling higher than the Greens in Queensland? Labor is always trying to woo the latter back into its fold. Under Albanese, a supposed authentic Labor leftie lol, it’s pivoting really really hard in that direction.

    Reading a lot into it, aren’t you?

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