YouGov Galaxy: 55-45 to federal Coalition in Queensland

A Queensland-only federal poll from YouGov Galaxy splits the difference between the actual election result and the pre-election polling that singularly failed to predict it.

The Courier-Mail/Sunday Mail has followed up yesterday’s YouGov Galaxy state results, which were covered here, with the federal voting intention findings from the same poll. This records the Coalition with a 55-45 lead in the state, from primary votes of Coalition 40%, Labor 29%, One Nation 13% and Greens 12%. However, Scott Morrison records a commanding 46-23 over Anthony Albanese as preferred prime minister.

According to taste, you can interpret the voting intention results as:

• An improvement for Labor on the election result, at which the Coalition recorded a thumping 58.6-41.4 two-party preferred win in the state, from primary votes of Coalition 43.7%, Labor 26.7%, Greens 10.3% and One Nation 8.9%;

• A surge to the Coalition compared with the last YouGov Galaxy poll from Queensland, which was conducted a week-and-a-half before the May 18 election and proved, like all pre-election polling from the state, to be very badly astray. That poll had the Coalition leading 51-49, from primary votes of Coalition 38%, Labor 33%, Greens 9% and One Nation 9%.

The latter result, which was similar to Newspoll state breakdowns of the time, is worth revisiting, as it more-or-less accurately predicted the vote shares for the minor parties (albeit a shade too low for the Greens), and may have done well enough for the major parties among women – but it very clearly dropped the ball among Queensland men, who plainly didn’t come close to the dead even two-party split attributed to them by the poll.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,780 comments on “YouGov Galaxy: 55-45 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

  1. Howard got us started on wars which cost billions on the Never Never. He was actively nationally and internationally in delaying or obstructing global warming action. As for his contribution to national unity, he was a systematically destructive culture war vulture.

  2. Greensborough Growler @ #1693 Wednesday, September 4th, 2019 – 8:14 pm

    Mavis Davis @ #1673 Wednesday, September 4th, 2019 – 7:52 pm

    GG:

    [‘Hark, I hear some blah!’]

    It’s not your fault you’re so chucklesome. Over the years, I trust you & the host don’t share too much in common?

    WB has always been inconsistent with his moderation. He knows this. I don’t think he really cares.

    It’s all about his time available, the inclination to smite someone because of personal animus, the stomach to deal with the incoming and whether he actually gives a razoo.

    As he said the other night, he doesn’t feel judged by the nonsense propagated on PB. It probably gives him talking points at whatever dinner party he might attend.

    You have my thoughts and prayers…

  3. “No dice, pal. During the election they were lied to repeatedly about a strong* economy under the Coalition and they drank the Kool Aid. Now they will pay.

    *Downgraded today to a ‘resilient economy’ which is ‘facing global headwinds’.”

    I think thar there might be a few more downgrades. From strong –> resiliant –> “holding up” –> “a bit slow but it’s someone else’s fault’ –> …. –> totally stuffed.

  4. Malcolm Turnbull was telling the truth! The Coalition were ahead of Labor in the polls when he said they were! He was rolled for no good reason! Except for the benefit of Morrison, Dutton and the rest of the Monkey Pod!

  5. GG

    If unemployment starts to track upwards the LNP will variously blame the jobless, unions, other workers, Labor, too much immigration, not enough immigration, the young, the old and the RBA.

    We already have highly recessed conditions in WA. It will not take much for unemployment to really worsen in this economy.

  6. Michael “If we had a different result on May 18 and 387 billion of extra taxes had been introduced to strangle the economy, the GDP would already be in negative growth.”

    I thought it was $387 trillion.

    But seriously, if the health of economy is dependent upon subsidising real estate speculators, paying tax refunds to people who don’t pay tax and cutting taxes on that part of profits big corporations can’t hide, the economy is already stuffed.

  7. Also, when all said and done, the Coalition actually did a little worse in the election of 2019 than in 2016.

    But did a lot better in certain areas.

  8. briefly @ #1708 Wednesday, September 4th, 2019 – 8:29 pm

    GG

    If unemployment starts to track upwards the LNP will variously blame the jobless, unions, other workers, Labor, too much immigration, not enough immigration, the young, the old and the RBA.

    We already have highly recessed conditions in WA. It will not take much for unemployment to really worsen in this economy.

    Unemployment is an issue that resonates beyond the bubble. It’s a proven vote changer.

  9. briefly @ #1709 Wednesday, September 4th, 2019 – 8:29 pm

    GG

    If unemployment starts to track upwards the LNP will variously blame the jobless, unions, other workers, Labor, too much immigration, not enough immigration, the young, the old and the RBA.

    We already have highly recessed conditions in WA. It will not take much for unemployment to really worsen in this economy.

    ..and you’ll blame the Greens no doubt…

  10. Does anyone know if there are any blonde asylum seekers in detention in Oz or on Nauru and Manus? All the people I have seen in photos have had dark hair/brown skin. Even the kiwis being sent back to NZ appear to be Maori.

  11. Rex, since you are a well-versed exponent of the art, you know the Lib-kin constantly campaign against Labor. They have a share of the credit for the re-election of the Lib-Libs and the application of intentionally repressive economic policy. This is some of the fruit of their tireless commitment to the defeat of Labor. You should take pride in your work.

  12. S777,
    No, that’s just Rex Douglas making crap up.

    My Wow! was in reference to the lecture on the polling between 2016 and 2019. Turnbull was telling the truth. The Coalition were ahead of Labor in the polls when he said they were, just before he was rolled.

  13. Now William I did a quick tour of NZ and couldn’t help but notice they were having local elections I’m hoping for a full write up of each and a live count night!

  14. As briefly oft puts it: we’re all…?

    But that’s not the case; what’s really a half percent growth in the June quarter?

    The economy’s doing reasonably well, though signaling recession?

    Poor Morrison may have to consider stimulating the economy like Rudd. I do trust, however, that,
    unlike him, he doesn’t suffer the negativities of the Murhochcrazy.

  15. Greensborough Growler:

    [‘Bloviating dickheads like you come and go.’]

    So, you turn to abuse as a defence. Typical of you. Get off the piss, stop publicly embarrassing yourself.

  16. Mavis Davis @ #1722 Wednesday, September 4th, 2019 – 9:06 pm

    Greensborough Growler:

    [‘Bloviating dickheads like you come and go.’]

    So, you turn to abuse as a defence. Typical of you. Get off the piss, stop publicly embarrassing yourself.

    You seem upset, petal.

    Well, you’ll just need to harden up.

    I’m not particularly fussed. Go around again and I’ll do it again.

  17. So, you turn to abuse as a defence. Typical of you. Get off the piss, stop publicly embarrassing yourself.

    Fairly routine response:

    (a) projection from someone who scored a yellow card last night for abusing Catholicism and Catholics,

    (b) followed by regulation call to “get off the piss”.

    Try harder Mavis.

  18. Helen Clark makes the case for legalising Marijuana in NZ, essentially saying that illegality makes no sense, especially in the face of the most harmful drugs by a long shot – alcohol and tobacco – being legal, and the lives of many, with major ethnic disparities, are ruined not by the drug, but by its proscription.

    A referendum on this next year for NZers.

    Helen Clark Foundation report here


    Overall weighted scores for each of the drugs The coloured bars indicate the part scores for each of the criteria. The key shows the normalised weight for each criterion. A higher weight indicates a larger diff erence between the most harmful drug on the criterion and no harm.
    Lancet Nov 2010

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/sep/04/cannabis-prohibition-doesnt-work-anywhere-its-new-zealands-turn-to-legalise-it

  19. GG & BB are defenders of the criminal justice system, until such time that it doesn’t match with their imperatives; that is to say, a cardinal was convicted of touching up young boys. GG, especially, can’t cope with same, the very thought anathema to his beliefs. But hey old chap, that’s what the jury found, the Court of Appeal, and I postulate the High Court. Get used to it. You’re a rag dick, GG – and officious.

  20. Yabba says:
    Wednesday, September 4, 2019 at 7:48

    I attended a Church School, was an Alter Server and sang in Choirs. No abuse.

    I also went to RMC Duntroon and didn’t experience or see any bastardisation or abuse.

  21. Bushfire Bill @ #1724 Wednesday, September 4th, 2019 – 9:16 pm

    So, you turn to abuse as a defence. Typical of you. Get off the piss, stop publicly embarrassing yourself.

    Fairly routine response:

    (a) projection from someone who scored a yellow card last night for abusing Catholicism and Catholics,

    (b) followed by regulation call to “get off the piss”.

    Try harder Mavis.

    He’d be booed off the stage at any reputable stand up Theatre.

  22. Mavis Davis @ #1728 Wednesday, September 4th, 2019 – 9:32 pm

    GG & BB are defenders of the criminal justice system, until such time that it doesn’t match with their imperatives; that is to say, a cardinal was convicted of touching up young boys. GG, especially, can’t cope with same, the very thought anathema to his beliefs. But hey old chap, that’s what the jury found, the Court of Appeal, and I postulate the High Court. Get used to it. You’re a rag dick, GG – and officious.

    It appears your dick ain’t firing anything, yet again.

  23. Mavis Davis says:
    Wednesday, September 4, 2019 at 8:18 pm

    I was a Reservist for three years 87-91 then ARA 91-2001. Reservists weren’t being deployed back then. They have been since 1999 and I was instrumental in sending Reservists to B 3/4 Cav who deployed to East Timor. Was the making of some very successful young men.
    Somalia happened immediately after I graduated from RMC and some of my classmates deployed without doing their Infantry Platoon Commanders course which was basically a heavy weapons and minor demolitions course because we’d just spent 18 months training to be Platoon Commanders. A good mate was the first Platoon in combat since Vietnam.
    I went into Tanks which were very low on the political totem for deployment. East Timor happened after I had made the decision to get out and I was running a Reserve Unit by then so didn’t get the opportunity to go. I do regret not ever doing it for real but I get to hug my wife and kids every night.

  24. Bucephalus: it’s “altar” (with an “ar”) not “alter”.

    I don’t point this out for purely pedantic reasons. Rather, it does gel with my suspicion that you are basically a fraud, and that most of the autibiographical details you dole out here (e.g. army service etc.) are imaginary.

  25. Scott Morrison In Melbourne today. He was interviewed on 3aw……..

    _________
    Asked about his blossoming ‘bromance’, Mr Morrison said despite he and Daniel Andrews being on different sides of politics, they shared a common goal.

    “I’m not sure if we share too many interests, but we share an interest in getting projects done,” he said.

    “We just want to get on and build things

  26. I do quite like the cricinfo live blog. Two bits of trivia that caught my fancy.
    Leach bowls with one hand and throws with the other. Fancy that!
    And Marnus Labuschagne is an anagram for Uncrushable Gasman.

    Uncrushable gasman. Reminds me of a PB poster or 3.

  27. I agree with BB. All military servicemen should be familiar with religious furniture. It augurs poorly for the training at Duntroon if he is telling the truth.

  28. How is this not a conflict of interest?

    Last summer, Scott Pruitt left his job heading the Environmental Protection Agency and within a few months had started consulting for coal magnate Joseph W. Craft III. Three weeks after leaving the Interior Department, energy counselor Vincent DeVito joined Cox Oil Offshore, which operates in the Gulf of Mexico, as its executive vice president and general counsel. Now, Joe Balash — who oversaw oil and gas drilling on federal lands before resigning from Interior on Friday — is joining a foreign oil company that’s expanding operations on Alaska’s North Slope.

    Balash, who had served as the Interior Department’s assistant secretary for Land and Minerals Management for nearly two years, confirmed in a phone interview Tuesday night that he will begin working for the Papua New Guinea-based Oil Search, which is developing one of Alaska’s largest oil prospects in years.

    The company is drilling on state lands that lie nearby — but not inside — two federal reserves where the Trump administration is pushing to increase oil and gas development: the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska. During his time at Interior, Balash oversaw the department’s work to hold lease sales on the coastal plain of the 19.3 million-acre refuge and to expand drilling on the 22.8 million-acre reserve to the west of the refuge. Both sites are home to large numbers of migratory birds as well as caribou, polar bears and other wildlife.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2019/09/04/top-interior-official-who-pushed-expand-drilling-alaska-join-oil-company-there/

  29. Mavis, you have either very limited reading skills or poor emotional intelligence if you can’t see how it’s possible to disapprove of a man personally while simultaneously supporting his right to have his legal options fully exercised.

  30. nath says:
    Wednesday, September 4, 2019 at 9:57 pm

    Wasn’t a big part of the syllabus apart from compulsory Graduation Chapel Services every 6 months.

  31. Bucephalus:

    [‘I attended a Church School, was an Alter Server and sang in Choirs. No abuse.

    I also went to RMC Duntroon and didn’t experience or see any bastardisation or abuse.’]

    My first posting was HMAS Leeuwin in ’65. I too found no buse – the best year of my life, in fact. But’s all been downhill since that -I mean the curmudgeons GG & BB. Oh shite, that’s withdrawn?

  32. Nath feebly attempts irony:

    All military servicemen should be familiar with religious furniture.

    Bucephalus claims to be. In fact he made a point of mentioning both. All voluntary information.

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