YouGov Galaxy: 55-45 to federal Coalition in Queensland

A Queensland-only federal poll from YouGov Galaxy splits the difference between the actual election result and the pre-election polling that singularly failed to predict it.

The Courier-Mail/Sunday Mail has followed up yesterday’s YouGov Galaxy state results, which were covered here, with the federal voting intention findings from the same poll. This records the Coalition with a 55-45 lead in the state, from primary votes of Coalition 40%, Labor 29%, One Nation 13% and Greens 12%. However, Scott Morrison records a commanding 46-23 over Anthony Albanese as preferred prime minister.

According to taste, you can interpret the voting intention results as:

• An improvement for Labor on the election result, at which the Coalition recorded a thumping 58.6-41.4 two-party preferred win in the state, from primary votes of Coalition 43.7%, Labor 26.7%, Greens 10.3% and One Nation 8.9%;

• A surge to the Coalition compared with the last YouGov Galaxy poll from Queensland, which was conducted a week-and-a-half before the May 18 election and proved, like all pre-election polling from the state, to be very badly astray. That poll had the Coalition leading 51-49, from primary votes of Coalition 38%, Labor 33%, Greens 9% and One Nation 9%.

The latter result, which was similar to Newspoll state breakdowns of the time, is worth revisiting, as it more-or-less accurately predicted the vote shares for the minor parties (albeit a shade too low for the Greens), and may have done well enough for the major parties among women – but it very clearly dropped the ball among Queensland men, who plainly didn’t come close to the dead even two-party split attributed to them by the poll.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,780 comments on “YouGov Galaxy: 55-45 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

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  3. mundo says:
    Wednesday, September 4, 2019 at 6:58 pm

    I’m keen to understand how you think in a trade exposed economy like Australia that global factors don’t impact on our growth?

    While you are explaining that can you then explain why you think we are underperforming relative to our peers and relevant global bench marks?

  9. ccitizen says:
    Wednesday, September 4, 2019 at 7:19 pm
    Will the Liberals return the $700,000 in tainted money they received from this function?

    How is it tainted?

  10. swamprat @ #1658 Wednesday, September 4th, 2019 – 7:21 pm

    GG

    You think the opposition shouldn’t get negative about a bumbling incompetent government?

    No wonder Labor has trouble.

    As you well know from a life time of practiced experience, whinging about everybody and everything can prove a little wearing to the broader community. All whinging all the time has got you to the grotto of stupidity you currently inhabit.

    Albo and Labor will pick their targets for influencing those they need to influence.

    But you grot away.

    Cheers.

  12. Bucephalus:

    Back from the trailer park soirée, you said in an earlier post that you “served” with veterans. Without wanting to put you on the spot, are you a veteran in terms of the VEA, subsequent legislation? If so, you might like to qualify same?

  13. GG

    As you well know from a life time of practiced experience, whinging about everybody and everything can prove a little wearing to the broader community. All whinging all the time has got you to the grotto of stupidity you currently inhabit.

    Albo and Labor will pick their targets for influencing those they need to influence.

    _______________________________________

    Before the last election I would have agreed with you. Now, it is clear to me that the incompetence, corruption and sheer stupidity of this government needs to be shoved down the throats of the electors if this mob is to be kicked out. Because this mob is not going to stop lying about Labor in order to win the next election.

    Doesn’t matter what the voters say they want in opinion polls. The only thing that wins elections here is well-targeted and unstinting pointing to the screaming flaws of this government.

  14. TPOF @ #1662 Wednesday, September 4th, 2019 – 7:34 pm

    GG

    As you well know from a life time of practiced experience, whinging about everybody and everything can prove a little wearing to the broader community. All whinging all the time has got you to the grotto of stupidity you currently inhabit.

    Albo and Labor will pick their targets for influencing those they need to influence.

    _______________________________________

    Before the last election I would have agreed with you. Now, it is clear to me that the incompetence, corruption and sheer stupidity of this government needs to be shoved down the throats of the electors if this mob is to be kicked out. Because this mob is not going to stop lying about Labor in order to win the next election.

    Doesn’t matter what the voters say they want in opinion polls. The only thing that wins elections here is well-targeted and unstinting pointing to the screaming flaws of this government.

    Hark, I hear some blah!

  15. Bucephalus says:
    Wednesday, September 4, 2019 at 7:16 pm
    mundo says:
    Wednesday, September 4, 2019 at 6:58 pm

    I’m keen to understand how you think in a trade exposed economy like Australia that global factors don’t impact on our growth?

    While you are explaining that can you then explain why you think we are underperforming relative to our peers and relevant global bench marks?

    The economic circumstances that exist now are directly attributable to the Liberals’ fiscal settings, which have been contractionary for many months. The economy badly needs an improvement in domestic demand. This has been shrinking as a result of the repressive policies applied by the Liberals.

    The external sector has been one of the brighter signs for this economy for many years. This continues to be the case. Government consumption spending was strong in the June quarter. Private and public investment and a run down in inventories all detracted from growth. GDP per capita declined. Interestingly, imports fell. This suggests the outlook for private consumption remains weak.

    The Liberals have strangled growth with policies that deliberately aim at reducing wages and social incomes.

  20. There is a chance we could already be in surplus for 2018/19 financial year. The treasurer says there has been a major improvement in the budget numbers forecast in the April Budget. It could be the first surplus since 2007/08 and the start of the Rudd/Gillard/Rudd disaster which trashed all of Howard’s hard work.

  22. briefly @ #1664 Wednesday, September 4th, 2019 – 7:36 pm

    Bucephalus says:
    Wednesday, September 4, 2019 at 7:16 pm
    mundo says:
    Wednesday, September 4, 2019 at 6:58 pm

    I’m keen to understand how you think in a trade exposed economy like Australia that global factors don’t impact on our growth?

    While you are explaining that can you then explain why you think we are underperforming relative to our peers and relevant global bench marks?

    The economic circumstances that exist now are directly attributable to the Liberals’ fiscal settings, which have been contractionary for many months. The economy badly needs an improvement in domestic demand. This has been shrinking as a result of the repressive policies applied by the Liberals.

    The external sector has been one of the brighter signs for this economy for many years. This continues to be the case. Government consumption spending was strong in the June quarter. Private and public investment and a run down in inventories all detracted from growth. GDP per capital declined. Interestingly, imports fell. This suggests the outlook for private consumption remains weak.

    The Liberals have strangled growth with policies that deliberately aim at reducing wages and social incomes.

    It’ll be interesting to see how this Government reacts to the coming recession.

    Labor reacted to the GFC with stimulus spending which averted recession and kept people employed.

    The Libs are hanging on to their precious surplus regardless of the pain that may cause.

    Let’s see their resolve when unemployment tracks above 6%.

  23. Handymen arise!

    I have carried out so many renovation projects in the past 3 years that I’ve lost count. You sell one place. You buy another. Work required at both ends.

    Strip all the paint off a weatherboard house? Plaster a ceiling? Erect a stud wall? Tile a floor? No problems, as long as your keep safety in mind, and take your bloody time.

    My Top Ten rules…

    First: think the job through, get the order of operations right. You can save yourself a lot if time & grief that way.

    Second: get the right tools. E.g. if you can’t use a hammer, buy a nail gun. If you hate cutting in, use a spray gun. If your arm gets tired sanding back Gyprock joins, buy a plaster sanding tool.

    Third: use YouTube for “How to” hints, but be skeptical.

    Fourth: resist short cuts (they very rarely work in the long run). Take your time.

    Fifth: . Always concentrate. Beware repetitive jobs, especially. That’s how you cut your fingers off (or worse).

    Sixth: respect ladders. Never take heights for granted. Never kid yourself you’re safe on any rung – no matter how low – of any ladder.

    Seventh: always wear steel-capped workboots. Never wear thongs or sandals, even when doing “quick touchups”.

    Eighth: use gloves, dust masks and protective glasses. No cheating.

    Ninth: always check walls you’ve just rolled, before you clean up. You WILL find bare patches and drips.

    Tenth: get a sparky to do your electricals.

    The above were learnt the hard way.

  24. GG:

    [‘Hark, I hear some blah!’]

    It’s not your fault you’re so chucklesome. Over the years, I trust you & the host don’t share too much in common?

  26. Bushfire Bill @ #1672 Wednesday, September 4th, 2019 – 7:49 pm

    Handymen arise!

    I have carried out so many renovation projects in the past 3 years that I’ve lost count. You sell one place. You buy another. Work required at both ends.

    Strip all the paint off a weatherboard house? Plaster a ceiling? Erect a stud wall? Tile a floor? No problems, as long as your keep safety in mind, and take your bloody time.

    My Top Ten rules…

    First: think the job through, get the order of operations right. You can save yourself a lot if time & grief that way.

    Second: get the right tools. E.g. if you can’t use a hammer, buy a nail gun. If you hate cutting in, use a spray gun. If your arm gets tired sanding back Gyprock joins, buy a plaster sanding tool.

    Third: use YouTube for “How to” hints, but be skeptical.

    Fourth: resist short cuts (they very rarely work in the long run). Take your time.

    Fifth: . Always concentrate. Beware repetitive jobs, especially. That’s how you cut your fingers off (or worse).

    Sixth: respect ladders. Never take heights for granted. Never kid yourself you’re safe on any rung – no matter how low – of any ladder.

    Seventh: always wear steel-capped workboots. Never wear thongs or sandals, even when doing “quick touchups”.

    Eighth: use gloves, dust masks and protective glasses. No cheating.

    Ninth: always check walls you’ve just rolled, before you clean up. You WILL find bare patches and drips.

    Tenth: get a sparky to do your electricals.

    The above were learnt the hard way.

    No faults from me, comrade.

    I’d love to publish a book on the collective wisdom of Bushfire Bill.

    It would make a squillion.

  27. Confessions says:
    Wednesday, September 4, 2019 at 7:30 pm

    “My comment had nothing to do with Ivanka’s appearance.”

    That’s your story and you are sticking to it.

  28. I follow this guy on Facebook and have done for years. His last Fb post was Sept 1 and nothing since. I’ve been wondering what happened, so thank goodness for twitter where he’s finally emerged after chasing Dorian in the Bahamas.

    At 11:15, Morgerman reported that his building was near the hurricane’s eyewall, its most destructive area where winds blow fastest. He said he and six others had barricaded themselves in a concrete room, pushing chairs against the door to keep it closed.

    Twenty-five minutes later, he sent what would be his final tweet from the middle of the storm.

    “Pounding. CRASHING. Boards prying off windows,” he wrote. “We’re moving children to a safe space, wrapping them in blankets.”

    Then, nothing.

    Morgerman’s account was dark for the next 54 hours.

    Online, people wished him luck and implored him to stay safe.

    On the ground, Abaco was at the time one of the most unlucky, unsafe places in the hemisphere.

    For nearly two days — from a few hours after Morgerman’s final tweet until Tuesday afternoon — Dorian ceaselessly slammed the Bahamas with a catastrophic combination: winds that whipped at 185 mph, in a storm that crept along, maximizing its devastation.

    And the school where Morgerman took refuge was in one of the country’s hardest-hit regions. For a short while this week, no one heard from him, even as his friends and fellow pursuers posted updates of their own. The storm passed, but rumors swirled. He was feared dead.

    Then, at 5:52 Tuesday evening, the Weather Channel’s Twitter account published a photo of Morgerman, brows raised and eyes sunken. “We are in contact with Hurricane Chaser Josh Morgerman,” the post read. “He is safe.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/09/04/storm-chaser-went-silent-dorian-hit-bahamas-he-re-emerged-with-harrowing-story/

  33. michael says:
    Wednesday, September 4, 2019 at 7:48 pm
    There is a chance we could already be in surplus for 2018/19 financial year. The treasurer says there has been a major improvement in the budget numbers forecast in the April Budget. It could be the first surplus since 2007/08 and the start of the Rudd/Gillard/Rudd disaster which trashed all of Howard’s hard work.

    Any budget surplus will be built on short term windfall gains from mining revenue (itself resulting from the mining tragedy in Brazil), high rates of income tax exacerbated by bracket creep, and punishing those on Newstart.

  37. ‘michael says:
    Wednesday, September 4, 2019 at 7:48 pm

    There is a chance we could already be in surplus for 2018/19 financial year. The treasurer says there has been a major improvement in the budget numbers forecast in the April Budget. It could be the first surplus since 2007/08 and the start of the Rudd/Gillard/Rudd disaster which trashed all of Howard’s hard work.’

    Howard pissed away the Mother of all Mining Booms and then put in a swag of vote-buying middle- and upper class welfare rorts that is still strangling the economy.

  38. Greensborough Growler says:
    Wednesday, September 4, 2019 at 7:48 pm

    “Labor reacted to the GFC with stimulus spending which averted recession and kept people employed.”

    The more important factors were the RBA cut interest rates 3% equivalent to about a $29 billion boost, the China driven commodity construction boom and the fact that our bank lending practices meant there wasn’t a problem in the domestic real estate market. A drover’s dog could have got us through without a recession with all that in train.

  39. There is absolutely no doubt at all that had the Coalition been in the saddle for the GFC we would have had a swingeing recession in Australia.

  40. Boerwar @ #1689 Wednesday, September 4th, 2019 – 6:08 pm

    There is absolutely no doubt at all that had the Coalition been in the saddle for the GFC we would have had a swingeing recession in Australia.

    Apparently the US has suffered through a recession under every Republican president in modern history. It takes a Democrat in the Oval Office to come in and clean things up.

  42. Yabba:

    [‘Inspired, horse’s arse. If you think that is abuse, you haven’t been a boy in a church school. That’s abuse.’]

    That’s hard but justified when reference is made to paedophile priests, such as Pell, Risdale. To think that they sleep well is beyond my comprehension. But some do so, justifying their stance on the…?

  43. Mavis Davis @ #1673 Wednesday, September 4th, 2019 – 7:52 pm

    GG:

    [‘Hark, I hear some blah!’]

    It’s not your fault you’re so chucklesome. Over the years, I trust you & the host don’t share too much in common?

    WB has always been inconsistent with his moderation. He knows this. I don’t think he really cares.

    It’s all about his time available, the inclination to smite someone because of personal animus, the stomach to deal with the incoming and whether he actually gives a razoo.

    As he said the other night, he doesn’t feel judged by the nonsense propagated on PB. It probably gives him talking points at whatever dinner party he might attend.

  44. If we had a different result on May 18 and 387 billion of extra taxes had been introduced to strangle the economy, the GDP would already be in negative growth.
    As for Howard’s middle class welfare in his last term, it was a mistake, it got him no votes. He should have just built infrastructure – roads, rail, etc.

  45. Bucephalus @ #1687 Wednesday, September 4th, 2019 – 8:07 pm

    Greensborough Growler says:
    Wednesday, September 4, 2019 at 7:48 pm

    “Labor reacted to the GFC with stimulus spending which averted recession and kept people employed.”

    The more important factors were the RBA cut interest rates 3% equivalent to about a $29 billion boost, the China driven commodity construction boom and the fact that our bank lending practices meant there wasn’t a problem in the domestic real estate market. A drover’s dog could have got us through without a recession with all that in train.

    Twenty twenty hindsight is a wonderful thing.

    I really don’t have much regard for posters that call two year olds terrorists.

  47. michael @ #1693 Wednesday, September 4th, 2019 – 8:16 pm

    If we had a different result on May 18 and 387 billion of extra taxes had been introduced to strangle the economy, the GDP would already be in negative growth.
    As for Howard’s middle class welfare in his last term, it was a mistake, it got him no votes. He should have just built infrastructure – roads, rail, etc.

    Too busy fucking over workers with his Work Choices to care.

  48. Bucephalus:

    [‘No, never deployed on operational service.’]

    Thanks for your honesty. You’ve just gone up a good deal in my estimation.

  49. ‘michael says:
    Wednesday, September 4, 2019 at 8:16 pm

    If ….’

    No dice, pal. During the election they were lied to repeatedly about a strong* economy under the Coalition and they drank the Kool Aid. Now they will pay.

    *Downgraded today to a ‘resilient economy’ which is ‘facing global headwinds’.

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