YouGov Galaxy: 55-45 to federal Coalition in Queensland

A Queensland-only federal poll from YouGov Galaxy splits the difference between the actual election result and the pre-election polling that singularly failed to predict it.

The Courier-Mail/Sunday Mail has followed up yesterday’s YouGov Galaxy state results, which were covered here, with the federal voting intention findings from the same poll. This records the Coalition with a 55-45 lead in the state, from primary votes of Coalition 40%, Labor 29%, One Nation 13% and Greens 12%. However, Scott Morrison records a commanding 46-23 over Anthony Albanese as preferred prime minister.

According to taste, you can interpret the voting intention results as:

• An improvement for Labor on the election result, at which the Coalition recorded a thumping 58.6-41.4 two-party preferred win in the state, from primary votes of Coalition 43.7%, Labor 26.7%, Greens 10.3% and One Nation 8.9%;

• A surge to the Coalition compared with the last YouGov Galaxy poll from Queensland, which was conducted a week-and-a-half before the May 18 election and proved, like all pre-election polling from the state, to be very badly astray. That poll had the Coalition leading 51-49, from primary votes of Coalition 38%, Labor 33%, Greens 9% and One Nation 9%.

The latter result, which was similar to Newspoll state breakdowns of the time, is worth revisiting, as it more-or-less accurately predicted the vote shares for the minor parties (albeit a shade too low for the Greens), and may have done well enough for the major parties among women – but it very clearly dropped the ball among Queensland men, who plainly didn’t come close to the dead even two-party split attributed to them by the poll.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,780 comments on “YouGov Galaxy: 55-45 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

  1. @Rex Douglas

    I agree with you, after thinking a fair bit about the policies of Offshore Detention and even Mandatory detention, after reading Greg Barns book “The Rise of the Right”. I argue now the only way to directly challenge Peter Dutton and to a degree Scott Morrison (who was immigration minister during “Operation Sovereign Borders”).

    Is to totally oppose both for the the racist policies they are, along with calling out Dutton particularly as a racist. Along argue these policies are a part of the process of the country sliding towards an Authoritarian ‘Illiberal Democratic’ regime.

    It is noteworthy as well, that the policies on asylum seekers who arrive by boat from Indonesia, have inspired Donald Trump in his policies regarding ill-regular migration across the Mexican Border. I have no doubt that the slogan “Build that Wall” was inspired by Tony Abbott’s slogan “Stop the Boats”.

  2. nath @ #1598 Wednesday, September 4th, 2019 – 3:55 pm

    Rex Douglas
    says:
    Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 8:27 pm
    Shorten giveth and Shorten takes away. What a sleasebag.
    Boerwar saw what I saw.
    I can’t see how he wouldn’t also agree with me that Shorten should just now go.
    ________________________________
    Parties tend to do this to people. Things they once saw clearly are self-obscured. Particularly if it involves somebody who becomes leader. It’s one of the reasons I really like term limits on MPs and leaders. The Greens should start taking the initiative and transition Di Natale and Bandt into mentor roles and give others a go.

    I don’t disagree with that proposition re the Greens.

    I do wish RDN would just get on and pick up the phone to Peter Garrett.

  3. Tristo says:
    Wednesday, September 4, 2019 at 4:08 pm

    You are calling the ALP racists as well if you do that. They aren’t racists and to use that name calling is infantile.

  4. @Bucephalus

    I did not say that, rather the policies themselves are clearly racist. Look at the dehumanization of Asylum Seekers, by calling them Boat People among other names. Labor has made the mistake over the last two decades supporting these policies out of fear of losing votes. However they have fallen into the trap which Howard, Morrison and Dutton have created.

    Also it is obvious that John Howard, Peter Dutton and even Scott Morrison knew they were pandering to racists by developing these policies. Although I would argue that John Howard and Peter Dutton are racists, while Scott Morrison is at least a religious bigot.

  5. 1. Our offshore torture camps should be shut down with all asylum seekers and refugees brought to Australia and treated with humanity.

    2. Our naval patrols capable of turnbacks should be ramped up.

    3, Our immigration intake should be weighted more heavily to genuine refugees.

    4. We should lead a regional effort to establish a regional asylum seeker processing centre.

  6. 41 people shot in Chicago over the weekend with 8 dead. Apparently this isn’t a mass shooting because it is a Democrat controlled city.

    How good is the US Media?

    The kindest thing that can be said about this comment is that it’s no worse than Bucephalus’s dissemination of the moronic lie that Chicago has a higher rate of gun violence than Afghanistan, which he saw on a Facebook meme somewhere and was actually stupid enough to believe.

  7. Embattled Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor is set to formally withdraw on Wednesday afternoon the much-despised extradition bill that sparked the nearly three-month long protest crisis now roiling the city, sources have told the Post.

    The decision will mean that the government is finally acceding to one of the five demands of the protesters, who have taken to the streets over the past 13 weeks to voice not just their opposition to the legislation, but the overall governance of the city in demonstrations that have become increasingly violent. A government source said that Lam will emphasise that the removal of the bill was to streamline the legislative agenda, with the Legislative Council set to reopen in October after its summer break and hence it was a technical procedure.

    Lam had earlier suspended the bill, which would have allowed for the extradition of criminals to jurisdictions with which the city lacked a treaty, including the mainland, but critics have not been satisfied.

    https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/3025641/hong-kong-leader-carrie-lam-announce-formal-withdrawal

  8. Brucephalus

    Aaaah Haaah! ADF hey! That explains you. Have rarely read your posts ……. I have just relied on perusing replies to your posts to sense that you had littered this place with your very “unusual” ideas. Now I understand.

    No, fortunately I wasn’t in the ADF. Hence my understanding of how the government processes in a democracy have evolved and how they best operate, unsullied by a mind contaminated by an extremely narrow view of society engendered by the likes of Molan. Perhaps you are Molan!

    I’m sure you’ve read comments here pointing out how the economy is not “god”. It serves society, and it is not an end in itself. Ditto for the military, even though its members just can’t comprehend this.

  9. LNP MP being interviewed is asked whether he thinks Newstart should be raised.
    Oh no, he says, everyone is different.
    But could you live on Newstart? asks PK.
    Ah, but I worked hard and gained qualifications etc etc., he replies.

    Just lucky, I guess.
    Implication that anyone unemployed hasn’t had a go.

  10. I observed an airport emergency mini lockdown situation the other day.

    Doors slid shut
    Red lights started blinking.
    Utterly unintelligible announcements were made.
    Security persons started running around.
    The trigger?
    A mother carrying a screaming toddler became confused and instead of walking straight out of a security zone turned around briefly before finding her way out past the security doors.

  11. Katter could at least have tied better knots in his Bunnings lightweight chains. I can almost hear the dull clinking of cheap plastic.

    Eric Olthwaite would have a lot to say about his shovel.

  12. Buce
    It is illegal to bug another countries PM under the guise of a helpful renovation. And spilling the beans on it didn’t jeopardise national security. It did embarrass the government which they take much more seriously than national security.

  13. And those jeans and shoes Katter is wearing havent seen an hours work in their life.
    Katter stood there for precisely the length of time it took to take the photo. Not a second more.

  14. Simon Katich
    says:
    Wednesday, September 4, 2019 at 5:11 pm
    And those jeans and shoes Katter is wearing havent seen an hours work in their life.
    Katter stood there for precisely the length of time it took to take the photo. Not a second more.
    _______________________________
    You’d have to admit though that if he had stuck around after the camera had left it would have been even more stranger! Let’s just say he stayed there overnight.

  15. Josh Frydenberg must surely get up each morning and set as his first task a way to blame Labor for whatever is in the financial news.

    Today he is saying that everything is just fine and dandy even if things are a bit slow, but the only people who are disappointed in the good news are Albanese and Chalmers, because they have been trying to pull the economy down.

  16. ‘Bucephalus says:
    Wednesday, September 4, 2019 at 2:19 pm

    Boerwar says:
    Wednesday, September 4, 2019 at 2:00 pm
    ‘Bucephalus says:
    Wednesday, September 4, 2019 at 1:56 pm

    Boerwar says:
    Wednesday, September 4, 2019 at 1:40 pm

    “As for the Israelis stopping other states from developing nuclear weapons… what hypocrisy!”

    You might call it hypocrisy but I’m pretty sure that they call it survival and they have some experience on that issue.’

    1. Iran has made existential threats against Israel. IMO, these are based on antisemitism. Iran does not have the wherewithal to implement this threat.
    2. Israel and the US are an existential threat to Iran.
    3. Iran is not an existential threat to either Israel or the US.

    The Iran Nuclear Agreement delivered: it stopped Iran from progressing to the development of nuclear weapons.

    The equivalence of the threats is debatable but, looked at from an Iranian perspective the Israeli/US threat is not just theoretical.

    Israel has previously threatened its enemies with nuclear war.

    The US is waging drastic economic war against Iran.

  17. nath, you can call Katter whatever you want, just dont call him late for a cooked breakfast.

    He is a busy man. Stunts like that dont just make themselves.

  18. Looking at El Paso’s Wikipedia profile, the mayor seems to be a republican with the city in two congressional districts.

    1-The 16th (D) won by Clinton 67-27 in 2016 and has been Democrat leaning for sometime
    2-The 23rd (R) 49-48 and was won by Clinton in 2016 49.8 – 46.4 and was Democrat from its creation in 1967 to 1993 before being Republican until 2007.

  19. Katter is all hammer and no anvil.

    “I don’t know what you mean”,
    said the man with the shovel,
    shoveling the ashes,
    “I’ve been diggin in the frozen ground,
    and I keep on shoveling….

  20. Rex Douglas:

    4. We should lead a regional effort to establish a regional asylum seeker processing centre.

    There’s a place where such a centre worked before – Malaysia

  21. On todays financial crisis news I heard only 2 snippets of radio commentary. One was Corman blaming it on the international economy, youse know those head winds. The other Frydenberg totally ignoring the question and instead pointing out employment is fractionally higher than it was under Labor a decade ago.

  22. “As this is an ongoing matter, it would not be appropriate to comment further at this time.”

    You usually can’t shut them the fuck up after a raid. So this has got to be an “Embarrassment” raid rather than something genuine.

  23. mikehilliard @ #1645 Wednesday, September 4th, 2019 – 6:17 pm

    On todays financial crisis news I heard only 2 snippets of radio commentary. One was Corman blaming it on the international economy, youse know those head winds. The other Frydenberg totally ignoring the question and instead pointing out employment is fractionally higher than it was under Labor a decade ago.

    Labor should be going to town on this They should go absolutely feral.
    They should behave exactly as the LNP would if Labor were in government.
    All I’ve heard is Gentleman Jim smiling and saying something or other. He just doesn’t seem that bothered. It’s a fecking gift for feck sake.

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