YouGov Galaxy: 55-45 to federal Coalition in Queensland

A Queensland-only federal poll from YouGov Galaxy splits the difference between the actual election result and the pre-election polling that singularly failed to predict it.

The Courier-Mail/Sunday Mail has followed up yesterday’s YouGov Galaxy state results, which were covered here, with the federal voting intention findings from the same poll. This records the Coalition with a 55-45 lead in the state, from primary votes of Coalition 40%, Labor 29%, One Nation 13% and Greens 12%. However, Scott Morrison records a commanding 46-23 over Anthony Albanese as preferred prime minister.

According to taste, you can interpret the voting intention results as:

• An improvement for Labor on the election result, at which the Coalition recorded a thumping 58.6-41.4 two-party preferred win in the state, from primary votes of Coalition 43.7%, Labor 26.7%, Greens 10.3% and One Nation 8.9%;

• A surge to the Coalition compared with the last YouGov Galaxy poll from Queensland, which was conducted a week-and-a-half before the May 18 election and proved, like all pre-election polling from the state, to be very badly astray. That poll had the Coalition leading 51-49, from primary votes of Coalition 38%, Labor 33%, Greens 9% and One Nation 9%.

The latter result, which was similar to Newspoll state breakdowns of the time, is worth revisiting, as it more-or-less accurately predicted the vote shares for the minor parties (albeit a shade too low for the Greens), and may have done well enough for the major parties among women – but it very clearly dropped the ball among Queensland men, who plainly didn’t come close to the dead even two-party split attributed to them by the poll.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,780 comments on “YouGov Galaxy: 55-45 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

  1. You know it makes sense

    Claude Taylor
    @TrueFactsStated
    ·
    1h
    After Odessa shooting, Trump chooses to focus on knife crime in London – Vox

    After another mass shooting, Trump chooses to focus on knife crime — in London
    As Mitch McConnell says he’s waiting for Trump’s leadership on new gun laws, the president is criticizing London’s mayor for recent knife attacks.
    vox.com

  2. @murpharoo
    ·
    5m

    @JoshFrydenberg
    is asked whether the government might consider additional measures to stimulate the economy. He says we’ll consider that in the budget. That’s next year’s budget #auspol

  3. Steve777

    Yes …. i was touched by its optimistic conviction.

    There have been big changes since 2014. The Labour Party has lost a lot of status, the brexit fiasco, the unfulfilled promises made in 2014 to vote ‘No’.

    The previous “No” campaign was funded by the Tories but executed by Labour. That unholy alliance of deception will be harder to pull off a second time.

  4. “In a statement, an AFP spokesperson confirmed the raid was occurring in a suburb near to Parliament House.”

    Is this to discover who leaked that Sri Lankan boat interception story to the Australian? I bet the government is dead keen to nab the perpetrator of this breach of ‘on-water’ security matters.

  5. I recently read Greg Barns book “Rise of the Right: The war on Australia’s liberal values”. I really recommend it. Because Barns describes how the various laws on ‘Border Protection’ and ‘National Security’ which both the Howard and Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison governments have implemented have gradually eroded Liberal Democracy in Australia, to the extent that Australia is pretty close to becoming a corrupt, authoritarian, ‘Illiberal Democracy’.

    I am convinced that decent minded Australians need to totally oppose mandatory detention of asylum seekers, along with the other various laws and measures implemented in the names of ‘Border Security’ and ‘National Security’. Especially given both Scott Morrison and especially Peter Dutton, are in my mind determined on turning Australia into a police state. To me it is increasingly becoming that Liberal Democracy is under serious threat in Australia and the various policies and legislation that has brought Australia to this state, needs to be totally opposed.

    Because there could be a moment, which will be a breaking point. Perhaps it will be when offices of unions and activists groups are raided by the police or say the Army being called onto the streets to deal with mass protests or the police tearing gassing, tasering and arresting protesters in their hundreds, if not thousands or all of the above. When that moment comes people will turn against anybody in politics who they see were behind this erosion of Liberal Democracy in Australia. Labor now is running a serious risk of being targets of this backlash. While the Greens could be rewarded a lot for their consistent opposition to these measures.

  6. Annabel Crabb on religion and politics:

    “The Sermon on the Mount — if delivered today in the House of Representatives — would occasion much nervous checking of Apple watches and shuffling of papers, as it would for many of us. Turn the other cheek? Judge not, lest you be judged? Blessed are the meek? Jesus was — if it’s not too heretical to make the point — really showing his inexperience in Australian politics with those sentiments.”

    There’s a bit of ‘same same’ here – it’s the Conservative who loudly cry “Lord, Lord!” after all (and, according to another passage, won’t necessarily get into Heaven). But it is the ABC after all – ‘balance’ I suppose.

  7. Ante Meridian says:
    Wednesday, September 4, 2019 at 12:02 pm

    “Mind you, I’ve often thought the UK should have a GG so there’s someone who can make a real decision occasionally rather than having a monarch who only does as she’s told.”

    You clearly do not understand how the system works.

  8. guytaur says:
    Wednesday, September 4, 2019 at 12:07 pm
    Swamp

    “Scotland might be more attractive being an EU member.”

    There’s no guarantee of entry into the EU. There are many EU members who would veto an independent Scotland joining as that only encourages the separatist movements in their countries. The EU has been very clear on that to date.

  9. Buce

    There is nothing stopping a Prime Minister Hanson or Palmer.

    At least with codified laws instead of conventions we would limit the ability of any person to undo the fabric of what is our democracy

  10. lizzie @ #1383 Wednesday, September 4th, 2019 – 10:17 am

    Gratitude to whoever introduced me to John Crace in The Guardian. Thank god for humour.

    It went further downhill for Johnson when Jeremy Corbyn, who is rapidly looking more and more statesmanlike just by not being Boris, and MPs from all sides of the house cut through the waffle and demanded real answers. Even Philip Hammond, a man who had displayed no personality as chancellor, now looked like a beacon of charisma in comparison to Johnson.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/03/clown-prince-johnson-cowers-in-the-face-of-the-rebel-alliance

    Marina Hyde is also worth reading:

    Barely three months ago, the work and pensions secretary, Amber Rudd, gave a speech in which she explained that “Being in a job gives a person dignity”. Does it always though, Amber? There is currently no job in the UK with less dignity than cabinet minister. Desperate people are doing things for crack rocks round the back of disused warehouses that are significantly more dignified than signing up to Boris Johnson’s decision to prorogue parliament, even when you said it was the last thing you’d ever do about 10 minutes ago.

    So who are they, this prorogue’s gallery? In one sense, they’re anyone who hasn’t resigned when a minority government lies in order to execute this dick move – which is to say, literally all of them apart from George Young, a whip in the Lords who quit on Thursday. To put that in perspective, Young once reportedly described the homeless as “the people you step over when you are coming out of the opera”. So anyone who hasn’t walked from this government has been morally outclassed by that guy.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/30/sajid-javid-dominic-cummings-prorogation-government

  11. guytaur:

    [‘I like the guy from the Victorian Bar talking about defamation law and how it suppresses free speech and his remedy.’]

    Yes, that was an interesting discussion.

    The first speaker made the valid point that when it comes to human rights, Morrison’s reference to the “silent people” is a furphy, that we should be on the streets in defence of hard-earned rights.

  12. Steve777 says:
    Wednesday, September 4, 2019 at 1:09 pm

    I genuinely like Annabelle and she does some really good work but in this case she is an amatuer theologian who demonstrates a limited understanding of modern Christianity.

  13. C@t

    Early this morning you made a negative comment about private health insurance. In line with your constant criticism of “toffs”, and “posh people” over many years you criticise wealthy people who use PHI and declare they are Coalition voters.

    IMHO this is quite incorrect. I mix almost exclusively with ardent Laborites. My large extended family, all working class stock, are predominantly ardent Laborites. We all have PHI. We all prioritise it as a higher level necessity than many spending needs or options. We hate the price rises over the last decade.

    I would be most surprised if the vast majority of Labor politicians did not have PHI.

    Cheers

  14. guytaur says:
    Wednesday, September 4, 2019 at 1:17 pm
    Buce

    “There is nothing stopping a Prime Minister Hanson or Palmer.”

    Except that they have to win a majority of seats in Parliament (as demonstrated by their failure to win any lower house seats last election) to become PM which is a much harder thing to do than just winning a one off vote which we currently have no idea how it would work.

  15. There is a lot to criticise the US for. It is a place of much contradiction however.

    Warren has landed her climate change proposal and I have some faith this sort of thing can be sold to the US voting public. Especially with someone who can sell it. It is audacious and I believe audacious is in keeping with US culture… a strange mix of conservative and heroic/ambitious/pioneering traits.

    Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren issued an aggressive climate change plan on Tuesday that echoed the Green New Deal, calling for spending $3 trillion under a 10-year plan to move the U.S. to 100 percent clean energy, spur economic development with a raft of new jobs and protect poor communities dependent on fossil fuels.

    That is a nice rounded sentence people can digest.

    Even Klobucher has a plan for zero energy emissions by 2050. Not as ambitious as Warren, but a heck more ambitious than the nongs, ninnies, nincumpoops, numpties and numbnuts running our show.

    https://www.politico.com/story/2019/09/03/elizabeth-warren-climate-change-policy-1700629

  16. guytaur says:
    Wednesday, September 4, 2019 at 1:17 pm
    Buce

    “At least with codified laws instead of conventions we would limit the ability of any person to undo the fabric of what is our democracy”

    What fabric of our highly successful democracy is being undone? It is one of the most successful in the world.

  17. Frydenberg spinning. ‘Continuing growth is a repudiation of Labor critics.’

    When we go into recession they won’t know whether to blame global headwinds or Labor

  18. Trump has now been around for nearly 4 years as president, saying and doing outrageous things, and causing global harm. And still his pee weak Repub colleagues can’t find the guts to boot him.

    The UK Tories must be congratulated for their current efforts to boot Johnson. And it is only a few weeks since he took over. Well done UK Tories. Some of you are sane, sensible and ethical, and can recognise dickheads who are not worthy of high office.

    Congrats also to Macron. His $150 billion (or was it $15 billion?) USD to Iran if they honour the nuclear agreement Trump backed out of is a great statement to the world that Trump is an idiot and Macron opposes him.

  19. A head of state should be directly elected, because the people don’t trust politicians who are… um… elected.

    This commonly expressed sentiment always reinforces my belief that the fundamental problem with democracy is that voters are idiots.

  20. Bucephalus:

    [‘What fabric of our highly successful democracy is being undone? It is one of the most successful in the world.’]

    The raids on Aunty, Annika Smethurst would be a starting point.

  21. Danama Papers says:
    Wednesday, September 4, 2019 at 1:37 pm

    No extra levy for education yet lots of the ALP use evil Private Schools too.

    And the cost of the Medicare Levy is about the same as the PHI so the ALP members could just absorb as their ideological duty.

  22. Boerwar says:
    Wednesday, September 4, 2019 at 1:40 pm

    It’s not like the ALP is talking up the economy and do you expect us to be immune from global economic reality?

  23. Boerwar says:
    Wednesday, September 4, 2019 at 1:40 pm

    Macron is being played by the Iranians who have already and continue to breach the agreement.

    The only people who will now stop the Iranians developing nuclear weapons are the Israelis.

  24. Bu reckons our democracy is one of the best in the world.

    Here are some of the things that are wrong with it:

    1. Ability to buy elections. Palmer’s spend and preference harvest being an example. Third Party spend by the minerals industry of around $23 million saved them hundreds of millions being another.

    2. Massive imbalance in media ownership including virtual monopolies in some states. Media ownership used ruthlessly to foster electoral manipulation.

    3. First past the post distorts the relative power of rural and region over urban. Gross pork barrelling maintains this imbalance.

    4. Massive interference by religious groups.

    5. Kowtowing to the US under the anti-democratic Trump.

    6. Lax electoral donation laws.

    7. Lack of Fed ICAC with teeth.

    8. Massive suite of security laws that are being selectively administered by the Coalition for party political purposes.

    9. Almost total erosion of ministerial accountability.

    10. Progressive outsourcing of government spends which are then rendered opaque to accountability by parliament by deliberate use of contract confidentiality terms.

    11. Use of automated electronic systems such as robocop which have entirely eliminated accountability.

    12. Virtually uncontrolled use of social media to lie, distort and manipulate.

  25. Mavis Davis says:
    Wednesday, September 4, 2019 at 1:46 pm

    2 points:

    The discussion was about the Head of State.

    Anyone who gives Classified ADF information to someone who is not cleared to see it is breaking the law. Anyone in possession of classified ADF information who does not have the appropriate security clearance or required measures to protect that information is also breaking the law and I fully support the ADF and AFP investigating and prosecuting anyone breaking the law in those circumstances.

  26. ‘Bucephalus says:
    Wednesday, September 4, 2019 at 1:56 pm

    Boerwar says:
    Wednesday, September 4, 2019 at 1:40 pm

    Macron is being played by the Iranians who have already and continue to breach the agreement.

    The only people who will now stop the Iranians developing nuclear weapons are the Israelis.’

    The Iranians complied with the Agreement until Trump broke it.

    As for the Israelis stopping other states from developing nuclear weapons… what hypocrisy!

  27. Bu

    This Government is over classifying every last thing in order to avoid accountability.

    There is absolutely no reason why all aspects of the three year old investigation into SAS war crimes is not now made fully public – except to spare this militaristic government from its own folly.

    We no longer have soldiers in Afghanistan.
    Our tactics there were better known to Afghanistani villagers than to Australians.

  28. Bucephalus:

    You posed the following question: ‘What fabric of our highly successful democracy is being undone?’]

    I answered it accordingly with this: ‘The raids on Aunty, Annika Smethurst would be a starting point.’

    Today’s NPC addresses were instructive re. press freedom, a cornerstone of a democratic state.

  29. Psyclaw @ #1517 Wednesday, September 4th, 2019 – 1:31 pm

    C@t

    Early this morning you made a negative comment about private health insurance. In line with your constant criticism of “toffs”, and “posh people” over many years you criticise wealthy people who use PHI and declare they are Coalition voters.

    IMHO this is quite incorrect. I mix almost exclusively with ardent Laborites. My large extended family, all working class stock, are predominantly ardent Laborites. We all have PHI. We all prioritise it as a higher level necessity than many spending needs or options. We hate the price rises over the last decade.

    I would be most surprised if the vast majority of Labor politicians did not have PHI.

    Cheers

    Again you get me wrong or wilfully misrepresent me, Psyclaw. It is exactly those who would be ‘ardent Laborites’ but who now have been flipped to the Coalition in many, but not all, instances, such as the Blue Collar Working Poor, who have their PHI and wear it as a badge of honour. ‘I work, therefore I am capable of paying for PHI’ types who are also, in many instances, Baby Boomers that have been paying for their PHI all their working lives and now depend upon it, that I was talking about.

  30. Anyway, I’m off to Sydney soon on the train to hear Professor Simon Jackman opine about why the polls got it so horribly wrong before the election. That’s my kind of fun! 🙂

  31. Bucephalus @ #1542 Wednesday, September 4th, 2019 – 1:56 pm

    Macron is being played by the Iranians who have already and continue to breach the agreement.

    Trump much?

    Aside from seizing a UK tanker in retaliation for having one of their tankers seized (justifiable tit-for-tat exchange that the UK started), Iran hasn’t done jack in years. If anything they’ve shown significant restraint given that they’ve got Trump just looking for any excuse to start a war.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *