YouGov Galaxy: 55-45 to federal Coalition in Queensland

A Queensland-only federal poll from YouGov Galaxy splits the difference between the actual election result and the pre-election polling that singularly failed to predict it.

The Courier-Mail/Sunday Mail has followed up yesterday’s YouGov Galaxy state results, which were covered here, with the federal voting intention findings from the same poll. This records the Coalition with a 55-45 lead in the state, from primary votes of Coalition 40%, Labor 29%, One Nation 13% and Greens 12%. However, Scott Morrison records a commanding 46-23 over Anthony Albanese as preferred prime minister.

According to taste, you can interpret the voting intention results as:

• An improvement for Labor on the election result, at which the Coalition recorded a thumping 58.6-41.4 two-party preferred win in the state, from primary votes of Coalition 43.7%, Labor 26.7%, Greens 10.3% and One Nation 8.9%;

• A surge to the Coalition compared with the last YouGov Galaxy poll from Queensland, which was conducted a week-and-a-half before the May 18 election and proved, like all pre-election polling from the state, to be very badly astray. That poll had the Coalition leading 51-49, from primary votes of Coalition 38%, Labor 33%, Greens 9% and One Nation 9%.

The latter result, which was similar to Newspoll state breakdowns of the time, is worth revisiting, as it more-or-less accurately predicted the vote shares for the minor parties (albeit a shade too low for the Greens), and may have done well enough for the major parties among women – but it very clearly dropped the ball among Queensland men, who plainly didn’t come close to the dead even two-party split attributed to them by the poll.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,780 comments on “YouGov Galaxy: 55-45 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

  1. guytaur says:
    Wednesday, September 4, 2019 at 10:28 am
    ML

    My point is Labor could change the legislation.

    No they can’t. They do not have the numbers in the Parliament.

  2. @MSMWatchdog2013
    ·
    Between December 2014 and the end of August, 2018 Peter Dutton had exercised his ministerial prerogative to grant somebody a visa to live in Australia 4,129 times: a rate of three a day.

  3. a r @ #1395 Wednesday, September 4th, 2019 – 10:28 am

    He’s gotten Labour into the position of supporting what the 1st referendum decided = Leave

    Huge mistake. The Lib-Dems have gained massively off this, Labor not so much. Or at all.

    Do you honestly think the majority of people in the UK want to Remain now!?!

    I don’t. Especially as Johnson will be running a Nationalist campaign attempting to appeal to the British Bulldog in everyone. So Labour are the ones who are sitting in the sweet spot, imho.

  4. Victoria

    Nope. Labour is doing well under Corbyn. Despite all the right wing attacks including the antisemitism stuff. (Remember Morrison tried to start that here during Shorten’s time too).

    There are some Blairite Members of the Parliamentary party that have been disloyal.

  5. Guytar

    I am pretty sure they would not be Australian citizens under Immigration law. They would have the same status as their parents.

    (Oops, now see this has been answered)

  6. Cat

    You are confusing the UK with England.

    The majority do want to remain outside of England. The compromise is Corbyn’s soft Brexit idea. I am not sure the EU will go along with it because its almost being in the EU but without the label of being a member.

  7. C@t

    Well now is the time that the UK is going through an existential crisis. What better time to change leader. After all the Tories changed to Boris in the past few weeks.

  8. Victoria @ #1405 Wednesday, September 4th, 2019 – 10:32 am

    C@t

    Why are Labour in the sweet spot?

    1. They want to Leave the EU. Or, in other words, they support the result of the Referendum.

    2. They support a Soft Brexit. As the Bill that was brought by Labour backbenchers today stated:

    Labour MPs have launched an unexpected bid to revive Theresa May’s Brexit deal.

    The group of 17 backbenchers including Stephen Kinnock, Caroline Flint, Sarah Champion and Dan Jarvis said they would seek to use a delay to Brexit to get the package through.

    ‘A further extension to the timetable to leave the EU will leave most of the country banging their head against a brick wall,’ they said.

    ‘Most people are fed up of hearing about Brexit and just want the referendum result of 2016 to be honoured.’

    If MPs agree to give Commons time to the cross-party Bill tomorrow the group will seek to amend it to require the publication of the version of the draft Brexit deal produced after weeks of talks between the Tories and Labour under Theresa May.

    ‘These amendments allow colleagues to rally around the opportunity to push forward with cross-party agreement,’ the MPs said.

    ‘We all recognise that British politics desperately needs to rediscover the importance of compromise.’

    I think you’d find that’s what the majority of the British people would want, if given the choice between that and a Hard Brexit.

  9. Cat

    Plus to avoid the people v parliament election campaign Johnson wants Corbyn has put whatever choice is made is to go to a referendum as a possible outcome. That is why he could get support to be PM without an election.

  10. Victoria

    Corbyn is the member elected leader. You stated members have lost confidence in Corbyn. Just as was said from the first week. Corbyn is still there by the members vote years later. So you can’t just assert members confidence in Corbyn has gone. You have to show evidence to back the statement up

  11. Good question:

    MelanieArcher@MelArcher369
    “Question: Can anyone tell me where the $444 million given to a trust to defend the Great Barrier Reef has gone and why it is not talked about anymore? #auspol”

  12. guytaur says:
    Wednesday, September 4, 2019 at 10:12 am
    @ConversationEDU tweets

    Australia has been paying more money out to the rest of the world than we took in for 44 straight years, since September 1975.

    This is incorrect. Flows in the current account are matched by counter-flows in the capital account. We may have just recorded a current account surplus on the back of a trade surplus. But our capital account will be in deficit, meaning we exported capital.

    We have a floating currency….balance of payments stories are not an issue any more.

  13. Guytaur

    corbyn lost a no confidence motion by a very huge margin and he refused to budge at the time. Says a lot about his chutzpah

    Anyhoo as usual, no point talking to you. You never see the forest for the trees

  14. This is what I’ll be hearing about tonight:

    Professor Jackman will discuss new research from his team including a comparative analysis of Australian public polling over the last several years.

    His current research focuses on the opportunities and challenges of web-based survey research, the political and scientific consequences of under-representing hard-to-reach populations in social research, and developing methodologies for assessing the partisan symmetry and fairness of electoral redistricting.

  15. briefly

    Do read the article. IF you did you would see a lot of credit going to Keating. You are getting really off the planet with your assumptions lately

  16. Surely this can be described in more simple language

    ‘developing methodologies for assessing the partisan symmetry and fairness of electoral redistricting”

  17. guytaur @ #1406 Wednesday, September 4th, 2019 – 10:33 am

    Victoria

    Nope. Labour is doing well under Corbyn. Despite all the right wing attacks including the antisemitism stuff. (Remember Morrison tried to start that here during Shorten’s time too).

    There are some Blairite Members of the Parliamentary party that have been disloyal.

    Labor is doing well under Shorten. Despite all the right wing attacks including the KillBill stuff.
    Oh, wait…..

  18. First post-Boris Scottish poll puts the SNP on course for dramatic gains from both the Tories and Labour for Westminster (YouGov)

    SNP 43% (n/c)
    Conservatives 20% (n/c)
    Labour 15% (-2)
    Liberal Democrats 12% (+3)
    Brexit Party 6% (+2)
    Greens 4% (+1)

    The seats projection suggests the SNP would take 51 seats (up 16), the Liberal Democrats 4 seats (no change), the Conservatives 3 seats (down 10) and Labour 1 seat (down 6).

  19. @joshgnosis
    ·
    13m

    The family’s lawyers argue that this case should continue because if it is dismissed, they’ll just go downstairs to the circuit court to apply for an injunction against the decision. More efficient to keep it going.

  20. The Tory rebels will not vote to instal Corbyn as PM. Much as they revile Johnson, they will not cede power to Corbyn. If there is to be an election it will be on their terms – No Deal is ruled out; then the Parliament could be dissolved… but only if Johnson is still willing to move for one. Chances are he will not do so.

    Johnson has united all his enemies. He has achieved in a few days what his enemies could not achieve in 2 years.

    If this is not resolved in the coming few days, I hope the Commons passes a Bill to cancel the prorogation and continue to sit. Such a Bill would affirm that the Commons could not be denied sittings against their will. This is a very important principle. It would deprive the Crown of its supposed prerogative – a prerogative which has been abused on this occasion by a PM who faced defeat in the Commons.

    The elected House will enhance its standing if it asserts itself clearly on this. If the House took this course, the Lords would surely have to follow. They cannot defy the elected chamber. If the Legislature gave passage to such a Bill, the Crown would have to assent.

  21. Adam Liaw @adamliaw
    ·
    12m
    Vegan meat manufacturers make a big deal about being able to make vegan meat that “bleeds” only because they worked out how to do it, despite the fact that absolutely nobody asked for vegan meat that bleeds.

  22. Not much point in Labour ditching Corbyn at this point I would think…….even if they could, as it was the members of the UK Labour that voted him as leader, not the parliamentary lot. Bit like Rudd I suppose? In relation to Scotland I think Labour might as well pack up and head south of the border while the Conservatives in Scotland – all those nice speaking folk from around Edinburgh who call themselves “Unionists”- might was well go with them. I hope the Scots hold out for independence for themselves. Just how it would work under the Act of Union is anyone’s guess. Now that the Stone of Scone is back in Scotland, history just might be on Scotland’s side though who the king/queen would be is an open question. Billy Connolly maybe? Maybe somebody younger now that BC is old and not so well……Andy Murray?

  23. C@tmomma @ #1406 Wednesday, September 4th, 2019 – 10:31 am

    Do you honestly think the majority of people in the UK want to Remain now!?!

    Yes. People certainly weren’t out protesting in front of Parliament because they were afraid Johnson’s dirty tactics were jeopardizing the Leave case. I think a majority of the people in the UK probably wanted to Remain back when Leave narrowly won three years ago, too.

    But that’s kind of beside the point. A leader’s job is to pick a position and then prosecute the argument for why it’s the correct one. It’s not to look at an opinion poll (or nonbinding referendum that’s gone well past its use-by date, even) and go “well 51% of people want X, so X it is”. That’s just lazy. A good leader doesn’t have to be beholden to opinion polls because they can change minds, persuade, and convince. And it’s not like the argument against Brexit is a difficult one to sell, either.

    Though a simple way to find out who actually wants what would be to back a new referendum. Put May’s deal against Remain and see which gets more support. 🙂

  24. guytaur….whatever construction you try to put on things will be wrong. I get that. There is ample evidence for it.

    The simple accounting reality is that flows in the current account are matched by counter flows in the capital account. That is how come we have something called the Balance of Payments. Go and look it up.

  25. Guytaur,

    reply to your post (belated due to Turnbull’s NBN dropping out )

    from http://guides.naa.gov.au/citizenship/chapter1/citizenship-australia.aspx

    “The legal meaning of Australian citizenship has never been singularly defined, and must, even now, be sought in the common law, and a multitude of Commonwealth and state statutes dealing with immigration, passports, the franchise, jury service, employment in the public service, and social security.29 The absence of a coherent concept of Australian citizenship capturing the whole relationship between citizen and state means that this guide must look widely across governmental agencies and policies to locate those features of the relation between citizen and state generally regarded as relevant to citizenship”

  26. A scottish IndyRef2 in the current climate would have to be a genuine chance of getting up. Not just a faint outside chance like last time, but a real ‘OscarMikeGolf this might actually happen!’ kind of probability.

    Whatever happens on that front, the result will seem obvious in hindsight, but at the moment it looks like we might (just might) be staring at an epoch-making breakup of the United Kingdom.

  27. ML

    Then as I posted the Liberals better watch out Labor doesn’t follow their lead and legislate for political purposes. Frydenberg could be deported next time Labor gets to legislate

  28. Guytaur
    “Then as I posted the Liberals better watch out Labor doesn’t follow their lead and legislate for political purposes. Frydenberg could be deported next time Labor gets to legislate”

    yes, but, of course, they may also shoot themselves in the foot if such legislation affects one of their own 🙂

  29. ML

    Yes. When you start legislating for political advantage. You either become a police state or get caught in your own laws to your detriment.

    Its why we have the whole system of democracy and conventions. What we are seeing in Murdoch media democracies is the challenging of those conventions.
    To me this just shows we need to codify protections for human rights free speech and media etc.

    That means changing the Constitution to ensure those conventions. To me that also means a good argument for a Republic as you can do a yes no referendum for reform and then do a convention to sort out the model after that vote.

    The approach the British should have taken to Brexit. Thats the Tories and Labour mistake. When Labour firmly puts on the table a referendum for the model then the division within it will disappear.

  30. Maude Lynne @ #1445 Wednesday, September 4th, 2019 – 11:14 am

    Guytaur
    “Then as I posted the Liberals better watch out Labor doesn’t follow their lead and legislate for political purposes. Frydenberg could be deported next time Labor gets to legislate”

    yes, but, of course, they may also shoot themselves in the foot if such legislation affects one of their own 🙂

    And Labor always takes such careful aim before pulling the trigger.

  31. I’ve been struggling to believe Morrison actually said this. This man is not PM material – oops, too late.

    Rohan Smith @Ro_Smith
    2h
    Scott Morrison to Neil Mitchell after learning Vienna beat our Melbourne (2) and Sydney (3) for most liveable city again. “Vienna’s beaches are rubbish.”

  32. @paigeataylor
    ·
    48m
    Operation Sovereign Borders has blocked the road to the tip, swimming pool and sports oval on Christmas Island. It’s also the road leading to the former construction camp where the Tamil family is being held. Extraordinary measure ensuring no pictures

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