YouGov Galaxy: 55-45 to federal Coalition in Queensland

A Queensland-only federal poll from YouGov Galaxy splits the difference between the actual election result and the pre-election polling that singularly failed to predict it.

The Courier-Mail/Sunday Mail has followed up yesterday’s YouGov Galaxy state results, which were covered here, with the federal voting intention findings from the same poll. This records the Coalition with a 55-45 lead in the state, from primary votes of Coalition 40%, Labor 29%, One Nation 13% and Greens 12%. However, Scott Morrison records a commanding 46-23 over Anthony Albanese as preferred prime minister.

According to taste, you can interpret the voting intention results as:

• An improvement for Labor on the election result, at which the Coalition recorded a thumping 58.6-41.4 two-party preferred win in the state, from primary votes of Coalition 43.7%, Labor 26.7%, Greens 10.3% and One Nation 8.9%;

• A surge to the Coalition compared with the last YouGov Galaxy poll from Queensland, which was conducted a week-and-a-half before the May 18 election and proved, like all pre-election polling from the state, to be very badly astray. That poll had the Coalition leading 51-49, from primary votes of Coalition 38%, Labor 33%, Greens 9% and One Nation 9%.

The latter result, which was similar to Newspoll state breakdowns of the time, is worth revisiting, as it more-or-less accurately predicted the vote shares for the minor parties (albeit a shade too low for the Greens), and may have done well enough for the major parties among women – but it very clearly dropped the ball among Queensland men, who plainly didn’t come close to the dead even two-party split attributed to them by the poll.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,780 comments on “YouGov Galaxy: 55-45 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

  1. Cat

    If we ever go to a directly elected President I hope we have the intelligence to just have popular vote with no electoral college like the US has. We have regional areas represented in our house and senate electorates.

    And no saying directly elected does not mean giving all executive power to the President.

  2. Operation Sovereign Borders has blocked the road to the tip, swimming pool and sports oval on Christmas Island. It’s also the road leading to the former construction camp where the Tamil family is being held. Extraordinary measure ensuring no pictures

    Come on media people:

    1. Get a drone
    2. Fly the drone
    3. Take pictures

    It’s not hard.

  3. I was looking at back to PB when Rudd and Shorten rolled Gillard and found a few interesting things. Where is this Boerwar? I think we would have got along well!

    Boerwar
    says:
    Wednesday, June 26, 2013 at 8:27 pm
    Shorten giveth and Shorten takes away. What a sleasebag.

  4. Tricot

    “In relation to Scotland I think Labour might as well pack up and head south of the border while the Conservatives in Scotland – all those nice speaking folk from around Edinburgh who call themselves “Unionists”- might was well go with them. I hope the Scots hold out for independence for themselves. Just how it would work under the Act of Union is anyone’s guess. Now that the Stone of Scone is back in Scotland, history just might be on Scotland’s side though who the king/queen would be is an open question. Billy Connolly maybe? Maybe somebody younger now that BC is old and not so well……Andy Murray?”

    —————

    The decline of the Labour Party in Scotland is quite significant. Scots were prominent in its founding. Kier Hardie supported Home Rule for Scotland. It never came. Just as the abolition of the unelected House of Lords has been Labour Policy for over 100 years. The Party has just never got around to it. Now, wearing ermine and getting £300 a day sit down money is part of a Labour MP’s career.

    The working class of Glasgow from some of the most deprived communities in the whole of Europe just got shite of Labour’s 100 years of privilege and uselessness. Glasgow is now a strong SNP voting and independence supporting city.

    The SNP will not appoint members to the Lords and supports its abolition. On social and economic policy it has taken up the mantle dropped by the Labour Party. It defines itself as a left of centre social democratic party. While Labour was reduced to one seat before then its polling was above 20%. Now polling is consistently in the teens. From that position its viability must be in doubt.

    In the case of independence the SNP policy is to maintain Elisabeth I as Queen of Scots similar to Canada, Australia etc. i suppose Scotland would get a Governor General.

  5. They are the 45 men and five women Peter Dutton doesn’t want you to know about.

    Slated for deportation – but no country to send them back to – these nameless, stateless people have remained in detention indefinitely.

    One of them has spent almost 10 years locked up, for the ‘crime’ of not knowing where or when he was born, and reaching Australia without a valid visa or passport.

    Battisson said if her prior client had fled to the UK instead of Australia he would have been recognised as a stateless person and accorded refuge, on the grounds he had nowhere else to go and no country was under obligation to accept him back.

    “But in Australia, we don’t have any law that captures people like Imasi who fall through the gaps,” Battisson said.

    “They just remain in detention by default.”

    https://7news.com.au/politics/immigration-policy/immigration-deadlock-as-50-asylum-seekers-detained-indefinitely-for-being-stateless-c-433296?utm_campaign=share-icons&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&tid=1567507127259

  6. Swamp

    Either Scotland or England. The Royal Family might want to choose. They could also decide that Prince Harry becomes King of Scotland or England depending on those preferences too.

  7. An independent Scotland would be a kingdom, not a dominion. No Governor-General required.

    Mind you, I’ve often thought the UK should have a GG so there’s someone who can make a real decision occasionally rather than having a monarch who only does as she’s told.

  8. A piece on making ethical decisions.

    No. 1 is pertinent to Government decisions, especially when looking at many whistleblower revelations. Often the main problem the Government has with them is that they are very embarrassing. 🙂


    Making the ethical choice, in any scenario
    Subscribe to the podcast

    This Working Life looks at how (and why) we work, exploring workplace practices to culture and leadership.
    When defining your own moral compass, regardless of the scenario, there are some key questions to ask yourself, Mr Burfoot says.

    These are:

    If what you did about this situation is on the front of the paper tomorrow morning, how would you feel?
    If your son or daughter asked you for advice in this situation, what would you tell them?
    That wise person in your head that you admire, what would they do in this situation?
    What kind of example do you want to leave your kids?

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-04/expert-advice-on-navigating-ethical-dilemmas-at-work/11453410

  9. guytaur
    “Either Scotland or England. The Royal Family might want to choose. They could also decide that Prince Harry becomes King of Scotland or England depending on those preferences too.”
    —————

    No guytaur. The current monarch is Queen of Australia, amongst other lands. It would be exactly the same. They don’t get to choose.

    Anyway Scotland never had a king. The Scots had a king. Different usage to England.

  10. Swamp

    You forget. The King of Scots became the King of Scots and England. Note the and England.
    I think the Royal Family will choose. Its not up to the politicians alone

    Scotland might be more attractive being an EU member.

  11. The Guardian’s closing summary about what happened in the British parliament today:

    Boris Johnson said he would ask MPs to support plans for a snap general election after he lost his first Common vote as prime minister. Nearly two dozen Tory MPs voted with the opposition to allow a debate on a Bill that would block a no-deal Brexit. Johnson needs a two-thirds Commons majority to call an early general election.

    After the vote, the rebel Tory MPs were told the whip had been withdrawn. The 21 MPs, whose number included several former government ministers, were effectively thrown out of the party, meaning Johnson lost his Commons majority – as well as the vote. They had also been threatened with deselection and some said they would not seek reelection, though Philip Hammond was not among them.

    Jeremy Corbyn said Labour would not back Johnson’s moves for an early election until a no-deal Brexit was taken off the table. He was backed by the Lib Dem leader, Jo Swinson, and other opposition parties. Steve Baker, the new chair of the hard Brexit-backing Tory backbench ERG, said his party should agree a pact with the Brexit party in the event of an election.

    A motion was tabled to ensure the anti-no-deal Bill can be rushed through Parliament this week. There are no time limits on debates in the Lords. But the Labour leader in that house tabled a motion that would ensure all stages must be completed by 5pm on Friday.

    Before the vote, Philip Lee defected from the Tories to the Lib Dems. He said the Conservatives government was “aggressively pursuing a damaging Brexit in unprincipled ways”.

    Boris Johnson wants to provoke a no-deal Brexit and then blame the EU for it during a general election, according to Ken Clarke. The former Tory grandee set out what he believed to be the prime minister’s strategy after reports that Johnson’s senior aide, Dominic Cummings, believes the negotiations with the EU to be a “sham”.

    An autumn general election would be a “fantastic opportunity” for Scots to demand a second vote on independence, according to the SNP’s Westminster leader. Ian Blackford said Scottish voters would be able to send a message by returning SNP MPs in any such election.

  12. Breaking news on official economic data:

    Australia’s economy has slowed to its most sluggish pace since 2009, when the GFC slammed the brakes on GDP growth.

    In seasonally adjusted terms, GDP expanded by 0.5 per cent over the June quarter, or 1.4 per cent for the year — equal to the worst annual growth recorded in the aftermath of the global financial crisis in the September quarter of 2009.

    You have to go back to the period after the GST was introduced in the year 2000 to find a worse result.

    It is the fourth consecutive sluggish quarterly GDP outcome, dragged down in particular by weak spending growth in the household sector.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-04/gdp-q2-2019/11474470

  13. @JoshButler
    ·
    15m
    In a statement, an AFP spokesperson confirmed the raid was occurring in a suburb near to Parliament House.

    “This activity does not relate to any current or impending threat to the Australian community”

    @10NewsFirst

    @JonathanLea10

  14. @JamusB tweets
    For 6 years a #Labor govt fought to stave off recession during the GFC.

    They were lauded the world over for their timely smart decisive action.

    6 years of #LNP has driven the Aus economy into the dirt.

    #ALP are BETTER economic managers.

    LNP f•ckup all they touch.

    #auspol

  15. I’m convinced that Rees-Mogg is really an actor doing an elaborate Monty Python skit.

    Have you seen the names of his six children:
    Alfred Wulfric Leyson Pius,
    Thomas Wentworth Somerset Dunstan,
    Peter Theodore Alphege,
    Anselm Charles Fitzwilliam,
    Mary Anne Charlotte Emma,
    Sixtus Dominic Boniface Christopher

  16. Unfortunately for the Morrison government, the bad economic figures released today are just telling people what they already know from their everyday experience. This lived experience will persist for a long while as wages continue to stagnate under Morrison and Frydenberg.

  17. It’s a bit cheeky for those Pommy newspapers to call a vote by the entire parliament “undemocratic”, especially when it thwarts an attempt by an unelected, toffy-headed, ex-Eton PM who has just done a deal with a 93 year old hereditary monarch to prorogue that same parliament, so that it won’t interfere with his executive authority to bypass said parliament.

  18. That’s what I have been positing

    John Ziegler
    @Zigmanfreud
    My 2nd column today deals with an important topic which is right out in the open but which no one in the MSM seems curious about. Could Trump be purposely manipulating the stock market? It would be easy for him 2 do & fits with everything we know about him

    Why Doesn’t the Media Seem to Care That Trump Could Be Purposely
    President Donald Trump’s career as a businessman has been a forty-year testament to several realities. Among them, his over-the-top avarice, his ability to con the media into thinking he is far w
    mediaite.com

  19. I’m convinced that Rees-Mogg is really an actor doing an elaborate Monty Python skit.

    Have you seen the names of his six children:
    Alfred Wulfric Leyson Pius,
    Thomas Wentworth Somerset Dunstan,
    Peter Theodore Alphege,
    Anselm Charles Fitzwilliam,
    Mary Anne Charlotte Emma,
    Sixtus Dominic Boniface Christopher

    That’s blatantly nameist.

  20. It has taken the Coalition six long years to undo Labor’s great economic work.

    In a sure sign of utter incompetence the Coalition is starting to talk about global economic headwinds.

    The GFC was the Mother of All Global Economic Headwinds but we did not hear a lot about that when the Coalition was in opposition.

  21. swamprat………lived on the Clyde for a time where and when ships used to be built there. The old Glasgow is long gone – trams and all – At the time the only SNP person I knew was the son of some crofter in Argyll……………..he was consider a real oddity……………….

  22. guytaur…you should make an effort to better comprehend what you read. The article goes to flows in the current account and the capital account, and asserts that Keating was wrong to provoke the recession.

    The first sentence in the story is just misleading. It is attention getting but wrong

  23. @CroweDM
    · 6m
    Law Council president Arthur Moses is at @PressClubAust warning about 75 national security laws since 2001 that have eroded personal freedom.

  24. A comment on a Scottish political blog i read.

    IainSeptember 4, 2019 at 1:45 AM

    Watching the panto in the London parliament, I realised we can’t lose. All they have is money and status. What we have is people, realisation and a desperate need. They’ve lost and they know it.

  25. BB 12:32PM. There are a few Popes in those names, suggesting that Rees-Mogg is a devout Catholic.

    In his morning suit anf top hat, he does look a bit like someone in a Monty Python skit.

  26. “I realised we can’t lose. All they have is money and status. What we have is people, realisation and a desperate need.”

    Very optimistic. Money and status were more than enough in our election. That plus lies and fear, which they also have over there.

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