YouGov Galaxy: 55-45 to federal Coalition in Queensland

A Queensland-only federal poll from YouGov Galaxy splits the difference between the actual election result and the pre-election polling that singularly failed to predict it.

The Courier-Mail/Sunday Mail has followed up yesterday’s YouGov Galaxy state results, which were covered here, with the federal voting intention findings from the same poll. This records the Coalition with a 55-45 lead in the state, from primary votes of Coalition 40%, Labor 29%, One Nation 13% and Greens 12%. However, Scott Morrison records a commanding 46-23 over Anthony Albanese as preferred prime minister.

According to taste, you can interpret the voting intention results as:

• An improvement for Labor on the election result, at which the Coalition recorded a thumping 58.6-41.4 two-party preferred win in the state, from primary votes of Coalition 43.7%, Labor 26.7%, Greens 10.3% and One Nation 8.9%;

• A surge to the Coalition compared with the last YouGov Galaxy poll from Queensland, which was conducted a week-and-a-half before the May 18 election and proved, like all pre-election polling from the state, to be very badly astray. That poll had the Coalition leading 51-49, from primary votes of Coalition 38%, Labor 33%, Greens 9% and One Nation 9%.

The latter result, which was similar to Newspoll state breakdowns of the time, is worth revisiting, as it more-or-less accurately predicted the vote shares for the minor parties (albeit a shade too low for the Greens), and may have done well enough for the major parties among women – but it very clearly dropped the ball among Queensland men, who plainly didn’t come close to the dead even two-party split attributed to them by the poll.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,780 comments on “YouGov Galaxy: 55-45 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

Comments Page 28 of 36
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  2. Lizzie, that quote of Simon Birmingham’s about 9 supporting the Libs with their fundraiser must surely mean that 9 is an “Associted entity” under that legislation they tried to use against GetUp.

  3. C@t

    I agree with much of what you say, but I think Toohey’s premise is that all politicians are being conned by ASIO and the secret squirrels, and that the draconian laws are detrimental to our society.

  4. timdunlop
    @timdunlop

    For years now, ordinary, engaged consumers of news have been saying that there is something fundamentally wrong with the way journalism is understood and conducted, and for the most part, those people have been ignored and ridiculed.

    Well, guess who’s coming to dinner…

  5. Dutton could issue #Bileola family with a bridging visa today, so they can go home and work towards citizenship, as many already do

    Nope.

    The #HomeToBilo family have gone all the way to the High Court, and lost.
    Their remaining options are ministerial intervention, or leave.

  6. Maude Lynne

    Birmingham seems to have absorbed his role as the Coalition spruiker so deep into his soul that he can’t see the political danger of his statement!

  7. BW

    The Labour members can dream. The majority will back Corbyn’s version of Brexit before May’s. The Remainers joined with Labor have the majority for crafting that legislation. That includes Nicola Sturgeon.

  9. Johnson’s main concern is not Labour. It’s Farage and the Brexit party.

    Farage will only accept a No Deal Brexit. I think Johnson will want a strategic deal with Brexit Party during the election as the only way to protect the Conservatives.

    The remainers are hopelessly split.

  10. guytaur says:
    Wednesday, September 4, 2019 at 9:24 am

    BW

    The Labour members can dream. The majority will back Corbyn’s version of Brexit before May’s. The Remainers joined with Labor have the majority for crafting that legislation. That includes Nicola Sturgeon.

    When did Sturgeon gain a seat in Westminster?

  11. Barney

    If you think the Westminster Scottish SNP are not going to talk with Sturgeon you are not paying attention.

    Swamp.

    The vote Johnson lost means its Corbyn crafting the legislation not Johnson. Thats what giving control of the agenda to him means.

  12. Boerwar says:
    Wednesday, September 4, 2019 at 9:15 am

    My guess is that Johnson is getting exactly what Cumming, Farage and the English Raving Looney Right want: an english populist election run as a referendum between hard Brexit and May’s Brexit.

    Johnson has split the Tories. If he’s foolish enough to go to an election he risks everything. There’s no majority in the electorate for No Deal. There is no taste for an election either. The Tories will have to run against their own rebels as well as Labour, the Lib-Dems and Farage. They will likely get smashed. The Brexit Party have yet to win any significant election contest but they will spoil the Tories.

    There is no love for Corbyn, but he can promise not to take the UK out of the EU without a deal and propose to have it ratified in a plebiscite. This will bring Remainers and those who oppose No Deal together. That might be enough to get Corbyn into office on a power-sharing basis with the SNP, the Lib-Dems and some Indies.

  13. Stephen Mayne @MayneReport
    ·
    Sep 3
    Interesting that @ScottMorrisonMP has closed his NAB/MLC account and shifted his super over to Australian Super. Would be tempting for union directors to have a peak but solid privacy protocols no doubt prevail.

  14. Tricot @ #1349 Wednesday, September 4th, 2019 – 9:17 am

    I just don’t see – from opinion polls in the UK and comment from BBC – that there is enough support in the UK to get Labour into power in its own right.
    My guess is that enough of the British public who bother to vote, will probably support the Tory party again, and, by dent, Bojo as PM.
    The “old” Labour party, once strongly supported in the north of England and in Scotland is no more.
    “Old” Labour voters – those in the decayed industrial areas of the north are consumed by “keeping those Poles/Romanians/Bulgarians and assorted Eurotrash” out of England’s green and pleasant land.
    True say, the comfortable people in places like the West of the UK, have the option of voting Lib-Dem, but this indirectly will help keep the Conservatives in power.
    According to the BBC, the UK is so riven by partisan support such that the concept of Broad Church politics has died in the UK just as it has in Oz and many other Western democracies.
    It is for these reason many here and elsewhere are so pessimistic about where politics is going in the coming 5-10 years.

    Substitute Labor for Labour, Aus for UK and change a few names and localities we end up with the same situation here.

  15. briefly

    The next big test will be Johnson’s attempt to table legislation to go to an election.
    That fixed term thing means Johnson can’t just call an election he needs to legislate to do it. Corbyn may deny that to maximise the humiliation time for Johnson.

    The only doubt is will Corbyn have the numbers to deny election legislation?

    I do agree with your summation of an election result except maybe Labour will win a majority in its own right.

  16. guytaur

    I am unsure about what the interaction with the Fixed Term Act means. I know it requires an effective agreement of the opposition to go early but the Bill is not yet legislated.

    Presumably, Johnson will look to engineer an election ASAP and if he wins a majority, possibly with the Brexit Party, he will just repeal or amend.

    I am sure the Queen will not commission Corbyn.

  17. guytaur says:
    Wednesday, September 4, 2019 at 9:38 am

    Barney

    If you think the Westminster Scottish SNP are not going to talk with Sturgeon you are not paying attention.
    …

    That you suggest they need to, indicates you’re probably paying less.

  19. Swamp

    We know how this works. See Australian parliaments balance of power changing and new PM’s without elections. Thats the Westminster system and if Corbyn can engineer the situation of No Deal or PM Corbyn he will do that. This term has just started. The Tories are irrevocably split.

    Thats why I say its the next big test of numbers for Johnson. If his attempt to get to an election fails Corbyn becomes the PM. The House will be giving a vote of confidence to him.

    Edit: Remember its who commands the numbers on the floor of the House that decides who is PM. All Corbyn has to do is get support to pass a budget.

  22. Option 3 – disappear from Christmas Island, return to Australia, keep a low profile and evade the authorities.

    Okay, their remaining legal options. 😉

  24. One thing that should be apparent is how different is the politics in the various UK nations. This whole crisis is an English national crisis manipulated by the powerful who want more unconstrained economic power.

    It’s an extension of the liberal wet dream which is consuming, and reinforcing the decline of, the anglophone world.

  25. guytaur

    I cannot see the rebel Tory MPs supporting Corbyn as PM. The SNP MPs might support Corbyn in exchange for a section 30 order. Some Labour Party officials have hinted as much.

  26. Jaeger

    The child in question was born in Australia. This is a test of can people born in Australia be denied citizenship?

    Set the precedent and Labor in power could deport Frydenberg or others who are part of that second generation whose parents came here

  29. lizzie @ #1353 Wednesday, September 4th, 2019 – 9:21 am

    C@t

    I agree with much of what you say, but I think Toohey’s premise is that all politicians are being conned by ASIO and the secret squirrels, and that the draconian laws are detrimental to our society.

    So Paul Keating was right!?! No wonder the dirt came out about Katherine Keating, Jeffrey Epstein and Prince Andrew. 😉

  30. Australia has been paying more money out to the rest of the world than we took in for 44 straight years, since September 1975.

    Until today. @1petermartin explains why

    Terribly weak AUD?

  31. Scomo (unlike Hawke) does not want Hong Kong migrant to come here if things go bad with China. https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/scott-morrison-cool-on-plan-to-offer-safe-haven-from-hong-kong-protests-20190904-p52nr2.html

    Why not? They would be genuine refugees. The average Hong Kong resident is richer than the average South African, and better educated. Unemployment among Hong Kong born Australian residents is extremely low, as is the crime rate. They are even mostly christian. So why would you say yes to one group and not the other? Is Scomo a racist?

  32. There needs to be 2/3 of the House of Commons vote for an early election. Corbyn has stated that Labour will not vote for that unless the Bill to disallow a No Deal Brexit is passed.

    So we are at a stalemate.

    I bet Dr Kevin Bonham, the chess master, is loving this. 🙂

  33. Gratitude to whoever introduced me to John Crace in The Guardian. Thank god for humour.

    It went further downhill for Johnson when Jeremy Corbyn, who is rapidly looking more and more statesmanlike just by not being Boris, and MPs from all sides of the house cut through the waffle and demanded real answers. Even Philip Hammond, a man who had displayed no personality as chancellor, now looked like a beacon of charisma in comparison to Johnson.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/03/clown-prince-johnson-cowers-in-the-face-of-the-rebel-alliance

  34. lizzie @ #1383 Wednesday, September 4th, 2019 – 10:17 am

    Gratitude to whoever introduced me to John Crace in The Guardian. Thank god for humour.

    It went further downhill for Johnson when Jeremy Corbyn, who is rapidly looking more and more statesmanlike just by not being Boris, and MPs from all sides of the house cut through the waffle and demanded real answers. Even Philip Hammond, a man who had displayed no personality as chancellor, now looked like a beacon of charisma in comparison to Johnson.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/03/clown-prince-johnson-cowers-in-the-face-of-the-rebel-alliance

    Thanks, lizzie. I don’t think it was me, but he’s good value, for sure.

  36. Boris Johnson is a bona fide shameless liar and I would suggest that he has workshopped for all scenarios.

    If I were team labour,I would not support a general election, even if legislation were passed prior to the election ensuring that a no deal brexit is off the table.

    Cos based on an election taking place on 14th October and assuming that then the Tories would win with a majority, what’s stopping them drawing up and passing legislation prior to the deadline of 19th October, taking the no deal brexit legislation off the table.

    I wouldn’t trust Boris as far as I could throw him.

  38. @joshgnosis
    ·
    1m

    And we’re back. Lawyers for the family say someone in the Dept of Home Affairs HAS conducted an assessment into whether Aust owes Tharunicaa protection. They say this brief was just given to them today. They want the case adjourned until Friday given this new info.

  39. Can I also make the observation that, in her typically weak and craven way, Theresa May voted with the very people today that plotted for her downfall as British PM. She couldn’t even show a tenth of the spine that Phillip Hammond and Oliver Letwin have.

  40. Victoria @ #1386 Wednesday, September 4th, 2019 – 10:20 am

    Boris Johnson is a bona fide shameless liar and I would suggest that he has workshopped for all scenarios.

    If I were team labour,I would not support a general election, even if legislation were passed prior to the election ensuring that a no deal brexit is off the table.

    Cos based on an election taking place on 14th October and assuming that then the Tories would win with a majority, what’s stopping them drawing up and passing legislation prior to the deadline of 19th October, taking the no deal brexit legislation off the table.

    I wouldn’t trust Boris as far as I could throw him.

    This is indeed the likely scenario. However, as the election will become a de facto referendum on whether to vote for a Hard Brexit(Tory), or a Soft Brexit(Labour), then it’s not so cut and dried whether the electorate will support the Tories.

  41. Guytaur,

    From
    https://www.acacia-au.com/australian-citizenship.php
    “Birth in Australia

    If you were born in Australia, then you would automatically be an Australian citizen if:

    You were born in Australia prior to 20 August 1986; OR
    You were born in Australia after 20 August 1986, and one of your parents held Australian citizenship or an Australian permanent residence visa at the time of birth; OR
    You were born in Australia after 20 August 1986, neither of your parents held Australian citizenship or an Australian permanent residence visa, but you have spent the majority of your life in Australia prior to your 10th birthday. In this case, you automatically become an Australian citizen on your 10th birthday.
    Born Overseas to an Australian Citizen Parent”

  44. C@t

    He is very unpopular in the UK, even within his own party and Labour party voters. They voted a no confidence in him and he refused to step down.

  45. He’s gotten Labour into the position of supporting what the 1st referendum decided = Leave

    Huge mistake. The Lib-Dems have gained massively off this, Labor not so much. Or at all.

  46. ML

    My point is Labor could change the legislation.

    Set the precedent of being born in Australia is not automatic citizenship and bye bye to the security most of us take for granted. Its only legislation not a constitutional requirement.

    Or are you quoting the Constitution?

  47. a r says:
    Wednesday, September 4, 2019 at 9:57 am
    swamprat @ #1359 Wednesday, September 4th, 2019 – 9:35 am

    The remainers are hopelessly split.
    Yep, just like Labor and Greens. It’s the same story everywhere.

    The various left-wing flavors think they can gain something by fighting amongst themselves, and by doing so create an environment where the right can get easy win after easy win.

    Yes. Exactly so. Tell it the f*37363t2r251 Greens, who persist with their endless attacks on Labor. Official business if you’re a Green politician is deriding Labor. This is how they make their political living.

  50. I haven’t posted in ages, because I’ve been too traumatised by the election result and haven’t recovered. Luckily, there’s no better therapy than seeing someone worse off than one’s self, so I’d like to make the following observation.

    Aren’t the Poms lucky they voted against changing their electoral system a few years back? Just think, if they’d opted for preferential voting, they might now have a parliament that’s completely chaotic and unstable. Hahahahahaha!

    Oh, it’s a lovely day for schadenfreude.

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