More Senate entrails examined

The lower house count concludes with the Coalition on 51.53% of the national two-party preferred; the button is pressed on the Senate for Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia; only the Victorian Senate result remains.

The last two-party preferred count for the lower house is complete, leaving the Coalition with a national two-party preferred total of 51.53%, which is exactly the result that was projected by the opinion polls, albeit for the wrong party. The Australian Electoral Commission website continues to record that 288 declaration vote envelopes remain unprocessed, of which 234 are in the seat of Kingsford Smith, but I suspect that may just reflect tardiness in keeping these numbers updated.

We should also have the last Senate result finalised this morning, that being in Victoria, where a result of three Liberal, two Labor and one Greens is assured. Counts were finalised yesterday in Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia. To complement previous efforts for New South Wales and Tasmania, I offer the following displays showing how the preference distributions proceeded. In each case they record where the votes stood after the election of candidates with full quotas at the start of the count, and also in the final stages, where three seats were decided in Queensland, and two were decided in Western Australia and South Australia.

First up, Queensland, where the result was three for the Coalition (Paul Scarr, Susan McDonald and Gerard Rennick, all newcomers) and one apiece for Labor (Nita Green, also a newcomer), One Nation (Malcolm Roberts, returning after falling foul of Section 44 and having his seat pass to Fraser Anning, whose own party proved uncompetitive) and the Greens (Larissa Waters, another Section 44 casualty who had already returned to the Senate after her successor, Andrew Bartlett, agreed to make way for her ahead of the election). Queensland was the one state where the result was not clear long in advance, although in the final analysis it wasn’t really all that close. The Coalition won two seats straight off the bat and Labor one, leaving Green, Roberts, Waters and Labor’s second candidate, Chris Ketter, in the mix for the last three. There never seemed much doubt that the fourth seat would go to One Nation and the fifth to the Coalition, but Labor might have hoped the dual miracle of a strong performance in late counting and unexpectedly strong preference flows could have given Ketter the last seat at the expense of Waters. In fact though, Ketter trailed Waters by 52,767 votes (1.8%) at the start of proceedings, which widened to 78,681 (2.7%) by the end, with Waters doing predictably well out of preferences from Animal Justice and Help End Marijuana Prohibition – although she didn’t quite make it to a quota.

Now to Western Australia, which has returned three Liberals (incumbents Linda Reynolds and Slade Brockman, and newcomer Matt O’Sullivan), two Labor (incumbents Patrick Dodson and Louise Pratt) and one Greens (incumbent Jordon Steele-John). Reynolds, Brockman and Dodson were elected off the bat; O’Sullivan got most of the way there when the 1.4% Nationals vote was distributed; and Pratt and Steele-John were always going to get there late in the count ahead of One Nation incumbent Peter Georgiou.

South Australia produced the same result as Western Australia (and indeed New South Wales and Victoria, if the Coalition is considered collectively), the three Liberals being incumbents Anne Ruston and David Fawcett, and newcomer Alex Antic; Labor returning incumbent Alex Gallacher and newcomer Marielle Smith; and the Sarah Hanson-Young retaining her seat for the Greens. The top two on the Liberal and Labor tickets were elected off the bat; Hanson-Young made a quota after the third Labor candidate and the Help End Marijuana Prohibition candidate dropped out; and Antic stayed well clear of One Nation throughout to take the last seat.

The overall picture in the Senate was summarised here a few weeks ago – all that’s different now is that the “likely” qualification can be removed from Queensland.

Update: Victorian Senate result

The Victorian result was finalised this morning (Wednesday), producing the anticipated result of three seats for the Liberals (incumbents James Patterson and Jane Hume, and newcomer David Van), two for Labor (Raff Ciccone, who came to the Senate after filling a casual vacancy in March, and Jess Walsh, a newcomer) and one for the Greens (incumbent Janet Rice). The chart below follows the same format as those above, and shows that this was not a close run thing. The Coalition and Labor both had two quotas on ticket votes, leaving two seats to be determined through the preference distribution. Labor’s third candidate, incumbent Gavin Marshall, was never in contention, and his exclusion pushed the Greens to a quota with Van, Derryn Hinch and One Nation still in the count. One Nation then were excluded, leaving David Van well ahead of Hinch to take the final seat, without making it to a quota.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,392 comments on “More Senate entrails examined”

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  3. ‘Player One says:
    Wednesday, June 19, 2019 at 9:54 am

    Boerwar @ #58 Wednesday, June 19th, 2019 – 8:43 am

    What has changed to make this sort of doom-laden article suddenly newsworthy?

    Because permafrost melting is one of those “tipping points” you don’t believe in.’

    Here is an idea. Why not personalize this with a stupid bitching snark that is factually incorrect?

    My point was that the science reporting in the article is crap. That point stands.

  6. RH Wombat

    The Kat came ninth in NSW beating both Molan and the ALP No. 3!

    Unfortunately his old court appearances do not disqualify him from election

  9. A belated Good Morning.

    From the masterfully steady BK’s files.

    Well it seems the AFP briefed Malcolm Turnbull on George Christensen’s overseas travel six times.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/afp-briefed-malcolm-turnbull-on-george-christensen-s-overseas-travel-six-times-20190618-p51yzs.html

    Six Times. Damn.

    So there you have it friends – the slow learners among us can take heart and rejoice that we too may advance to dwell among the stars of the great and the good. 😎 ☮ ☕

  11. Sheridan, who boosted May as ‘The Lioness’ when she was first elevated to Prime Minister has now moved seamlessly on to drooling over Boris.

  12. KJ
    In your considered view, is it in the interests of Australian democracy for the voters to know what was in those six reports, to know how $1.4 billion in pork was barrelled, to know what is happening with all those choppers and to know what happened at Barnarwatha?

  13. Second debate analysis from BBC EU reporter:

    Adam Fleming
    @adamfleming
    Consensus so far from the very few people in Brussels who I can get to admit to watching #OurNextPM is that it was either stuff they’ve heard before or nothing new that could work.

  17. Boerwar @ #112 Wednesday, June 19th, 2019 – 10:18 am

    KJ
    In your considered view, is it in the interests of Australian democracy for the voters to know what was in those six reports, to know how $1.4 billion in pork was barrelled, to know what is happening with all those choppers and to know what happened at Barnarwatha?

    I know about as little as anybody. What faith can be had with the AFP is probably more a religious question.

    Pork you say. Let me count the ways —– 😈😈😈

  22. As Victoria rolls out its historic legalised assisted dying scheme, Catholic bishops have issued an eleventh-hour warning against doctors using the contentious laws to help patients end their lives….

    Terminally ill patients in Catholic-run hospitals and hospices wanting to end their lives will have to move elsewhere to ask to use the scheme, with Church health providers reaffirming they will not offer assisted dying services.

    There are 2,800 hospital beds and 3,200 residential aged care beds in Catholic run health services across the state….

    Melbourne’s Catholic hospitals will be home to large euthanasia no-go zones, with Cabrini Health, Mercy Health and St Vincent’s all firm in their opposition to the practice.

    Patients need to know the religion and beliefs of their doctor well beforehand.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria/catholic-church-restates-staunch-opposition-to-voluntary-assisted-dying-laws-20190618-p51yt4.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1560903512

  25. lizzie @ #122 Wednesday, June 19th, 2019 – 10:30 am

    As Victoria rolls out its historic legalised assisted dying scheme, Catholic bishops have issued an eleventh-hour warning against doctors using the contentious laws to help patients end their lives….

    Terminally ill patients in Catholic-run hospitals and hospices wanting to end their lives will have to move elsewhere to ask to use the scheme, with Church health providers reaffirming they will not offer assisted dying services.

    There are 2,800 hospital beds and 3,200 residential aged care beds in Catholic run health services across the state….

    Melbourne’s Catholic hospitals will be home to large euthanasia no-go zones, with Cabrini Health, Mercy Health and St Vincent’s all firm in their opposition to the practice.

    Patients need to know the religion and beliefs of their doctor well beforehand.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria/catholic-church-restates-staunch-opposition-to-voluntary-assisted-dying-laws-20190618-p51yt4.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1560903512

    I hope they go broke.

  26. ‘Dan Gulberry says:
    Wednesday, June 19, 2019 at 10:25 am

    boerwar, P1,

    I know where some of the permafrost has disappeared to. I just had to scrape ice off of the windscreen of my car.

    BRRRRRR!!!!!’

    Effin nippy here as well.

    #weatheronBludger

  28. Just watching some footage from a Nuremberg rally on ABC24. Someone’s done a wonderful job on colourising the old b&w except that Adolf’s skin and hair are too orange so much so that his moustache has appeared to disappear.

  33. zoomster @ #127 Wednesday, June 19th, 2019 – 10:40 am

    In most first world countries, apartment living is perfectly normal.

    In most first world countries, your apartment won’t start to crumble around your ears as soon the building is completed, leaving you no recourse against the developers. That takes a third world country with third world building, regulatory and corporate standards 🙁

  36. BK
    From the article you linked:

    ‘A man who donated his sperm to a lesbian friend with the belief he could play a role in the child’s life has won a High Court fight sparked by the mother’s decision to move to New Zealand with their biological child.
    Key points:

    The man says he fathered the girl on the understanding he would have a role in her life
    The High Court rules in favour of the man, forcing the child and her mother to remain in Australia
    The father has been locked in a dispute with the girl’s mother since she planned to move to New Zealand

    The court was told the man was listed as the girl’s father on her birth certificate, and that she and her sister, to whom he was not related, called him “daddy”.’

    The circumstances are particular. It was not fire and forget, as it were.

  37. Mavis Smith @ #65 Wednesday, June 19th, 2019 – 8:48 am

    It’s difficult the gauge the reasons why so many former regulars aren’t posting.

    There’s nothing to do right about now.

    Labor lost in a status-quo result, bought the media narrative about it being an electoral wipeout, and with a determination that only utter panic can bring seems intent on chaining itself to the mast of the SS Coal. Completely hopeless. At least in QLD, anyways.

    Albo ineptly took the media’s bait on Setka, and is now in some tiresome debate about whether or not Setka directly disparaged Rosie Batty. Boring. But it’s all you seem to hear about Labor today.

    And Parliament’s calendar is still sitting empty for the rest of the year. The Coalition hasn’t done anything outrageous yet (beyond all their normal background outrages, anyways). We may as well have not even bothered with the election, so far.

    Pauline Hanson is making her usual noises about wanting handouts before she’ll support the Coalition’s tax cuts. Pfft.

    There’s just nothing good, interesting, important, or even just plain official going on.

    People will probably return for the 2020 presidential election. Trump still shouldn’t be able to beat a flaming bag of shit in that contest, but he somehow managed in 2016. 🙁

    So there’ll be no room for complacency.

  38. “In most first world countries, apartment living is perfectly normal.”

    I agree with P1 on this one. We permit buildings to be built with no independent inspection, with cladding materials that were banned years ago in other advanced countries, and with rights to sue the builders systematically limited to less than normal common law rights. Many will not last the length of a mortgage without major structural repairs. We also permit high densities without corresponding increases in parklands, footpath widths, schools and public transport.

    Why FFS? The only explanation I can fathom is a corrupting of the system by large developers continually donating money to the Liberals and I’m afraid also several former State Labor governments, notably NSW. I personally saw a NSW Labor state government knock back recommendations to legislate changes, in the era when Eddie Obeid was defacto premier.

  39. RH
    Yes, Dr Mengele would have been proud.
    What surprised me was the HCCC investigation. He was struck off years ago but the HCCC still investigated him as an unregistered practitioner. It detailed the various issues with those two cases and issued various prohibitions. The question is what can the HCCC do if he breaks those prohibitions as he has already suffered the ultimate penalty of deregistration. He has said that the HCCC is irrelavent to his practice.
    As far as I know these two cases remain before the police but no charges have been laid

  40. @ABCmediawatch

    No hard questions by Sky’s Peta Credlin after the Adani Group pay for the broadcaster to visit India and interview the boss. #MediaWatch

  44. zoomster says:
    Wednesday, June 19, 2019 at 7:34 am

    and

    C@tmomma says:
    Wednesday, June 19, 2019 at 7:43 am

    I would be interested to see what the employee Awards or EBA’s say about those hours in terms of overtime payments and rest requirements. I am also interested to know if the employers have Fatigue Management Policies in place (I doubt it, by the sounds of it.)

    In Zoomster’s case that just sounds ridiculous – surely the overtime loadings must have made it more economical to pick up another part-timer or even a casual.

    It is interesting for civilians to learn exactly what is required of front-line soldiers and sailors (aircrew are well regulated) in training and on operations. I fell asleep while standing a couple of times which really hurts when you hit your face on the way down. I hate sleep deprivation.

  45. I prefer Trioli on Qanda. She doesn’t take positions and argue with the panel.

    Trioli leaves News Breakfast on August 15, replacing retiring ABC Radio Melbourne host Jon Faine later this year. She is also tipped to succeed Q&A presenter Tony Jones, who is moving to Beijing.

    Jones’ partner, ABC journalist Sarah Ferguson, has been appointed ABC’s China bureau chief.

  46. B
    ‘It is interesting for civilians to learn exactly what is required of front-line soldiers and sailors (aircrew are well regulated) in training and on operations. I fell asleep while standing a couple of times which really hurts when you hit your face on the way down. I hate sleep deprivation.’

    Indeed.

    The only civilian corollary seems to be the way beginning doctors and truckies are pushed beyond reason.
    Self-employed people do push themselves to the limit. I can recall falling asleep several times without warning during dinner while we were in peak strawberry harvest time.

    I have a question. In your experience would doubling all relevant resource have made a difference to the patterns of the sleep deprivation you experienced?

  47. lizzie says:
    Wednesday, June 19, 2019 at 8:48 am

    Education level for females has a direct negative correlation with overall fecundity and age of fecundity. We have known this for many decades (I learnt this in Economics at University when it was still free to go).

    So the question is: do you want highly educated females or more babies at a younger age? You can’t have both.

    This is also why when it comes to Foreign Aid and Development Economics one of the best bangs for the buck is educating the females in developing nations.

  48. Shellbell
    As you are probably aware he has already been considered for contempt charges on two cases after allegedly :
    1. Physically assaulting the opposing barrister when he successfully self-defended a medical negligence case
    2. Abusing the jury after he was convicted of growing 50,000 plants

    I don’t think a contempt charge would worry him too much

  49. So the question is: do you want highly educated females or more babies at a younger age?

    The first option. With the worldwide population as high as it is, anything that starts with “more babies …” can’t be the solution.

  50. Player One says:
    Wednesday, June 19, 2019 at 9:43 am

    NZ is beautiful country but you will have to pay to see the GP (Isn’t that meant to be terribly bad? No?) and there is GST on just about everything (also bad, apparently).

    They are also afflicted by similar stupid planning laws and the innate corruption of having local government control land development which has caused extremely high property prices just like here.

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