More Senate entrails examined

The lower house count concludes with the Coalition on 51.53% of the national two-party preferred; the button is pressed on the Senate for Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia; only the Victorian Senate result remains.

The last two-party preferred count for the lower house is complete, leaving the Coalition with a national two-party preferred total of 51.53%, which is exactly the result that was projected by the opinion polls, albeit for the wrong party. The Australian Electoral Commission website continues to record that 288 declaration vote envelopes remain unprocessed, of which 234 are in the seat of Kingsford Smith, but I suspect that may just reflect tardiness in keeping these numbers updated.

We should also have the last Senate result finalised this morning, that being in Victoria, where a result of three Liberal, two Labor and one Greens is assured. Counts were finalised yesterday in Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia. To complement previous efforts for New South Wales and Tasmania, I offer the following displays showing how the preference distributions proceeded. In each case they record where the votes stood after the election of candidates with full quotas at the start of the count, and also in the final stages, where three seats were decided in Queensland, and two were decided in Western Australia and South Australia.

First up, Queensland, where the result was three for the Coalition (Paul Scarr, Susan McDonald and Gerard Rennick, all newcomers) and one apiece for Labor (Nita Green, also a newcomer), One Nation (Malcolm Roberts, returning after falling foul of Section 44 and having his seat pass to Fraser Anning, whose own party proved uncompetitive) and the Greens (Larissa Waters, another Section 44 casualty who had already returned to the Senate after her successor, Andrew Bartlett, agreed to make way for her ahead of the election). Queensland was the one state where the result was not clear long in advance, although in the final analysis it wasn’t really all that close. The Coalition won two seats straight off the bat and Labor one, leaving Green, Roberts, Waters and Labor’s second candidate, Chris Ketter, in the mix for the last three. There never seemed much doubt that the fourth seat would go to One Nation and the fifth to the Coalition, but Labor might have hoped the dual miracle of a strong performance in late counting and unexpectedly strong preference flows could have given Ketter the last seat at the expense of Waters. In fact though, Ketter trailed Waters by 52,767 votes (1.8%) at the start of proceedings, which widened to 78,681 (2.7%) by the end, with Waters doing predictably well out of preferences from Animal Justice and Help End Marijuana Prohibition – although she didn’t quite make it to a quota.

Now to Western Australia, which has returned three Liberals (incumbents Linda Reynolds and Slade Brockman, and newcomer Matt O’Sullivan), two Labor (incumbents Patrick Dodson and Louise Pratt) and one Greens (incumbent Jordon Steele-John). Reynolds, Brockman and Dodson were elected off the bat; O’Sullivan got most of the way there when the 1.4% Nationals vote was distributed; and Pratt and Steele-John were always going to get there late in the count ahead of One Nation incumbent Peter Georgiou.

South Australia produced the same result as Western Australia (and indeed New South Wales and Victoria, if the Coalition is considered collectively), the three Liberals being incumbents Anne Ruston and David Fawcett, and newcomer Alex Antic; Labor returning incumbent Alex Gallacher and newcomer Marielle Smith; and the Sarah Hanson-Young retaining her seat for the Greens. The top two on the Liberal and Labor tickets were elected off the bat; Hanson-Young made a quota after the third Labor candidate and the Help End Marijuana Prohibition candidate dropped out; and Antic stayed well clear of One Nation throughout to take the last seat.

The overall picture in the Senate was summarised here a few weeks ago – all that’s different now is that the “likely” qualification can be removed from Queensland.

Update: Victorian Senate result

The Victorian result was finalised this morning (Wednesday), producing the anticipated result of three seats for the Liberals (incumbents James Patterson and Jane Hume, and newcomer David Van), two for Labor (Raff Ciccone, who came to the Senate after filling a casual vacancy in March, and Jess Walsh, a newcomer) and one for the Greens (incumbent Janet Rice). The chart below follows the same format as those above, and shows that this was not a close run thing. The Coalition and Labor both had two quotas on ticket votes, leaving two seats to be determined through the preference distribution. Labor’s third candidate, incumbent Gavin Marshall, was never in contention, and his exclusion pushed the Greens to a quota with Van, Derryn Hinch and One Nation still in the count. One Nation then were excluded, leaving David Van well ahead of Hinch to take the final seat, without making it to a quota.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,392 comments on “More Senate entrails examined”

  1. GG has been here from day dot – 2004. Please respect those who’ve come before you on this blog.
    ______________________________________
    Please, after what he said about abortion and the witnesses at the child abuse royal commission I couldn’t care if he ended up in a sinkhole.

  2. nath @ #1351 Saturday, June 22nd, 2019 – 8:11 pm

    GG has been here from day dot – 2004. Please respect those who’ve come before you on this blog.
    ______________________________________
    Please, after what he said about abortion and the witnesses at the child abuse royal commission I couldn’t care if he ended up in a sinkhole.

    Hmm.. glad I missed those comments.

  3. Psyclaw @ #1350 Saturday, June 22nd, 2019 – 8:09 pm

    C@t

    “I’m looking at you Psyclaw”

    Pray darls, what are you on about. Was it to do with the post Mr Bowe snipped.

    Surely it is not poor me you are defaming. Surely I too cannot be a victim. You are the only real victim here aren’t you.

    I know you will be only too happy to illucidate.

    Cheers luvvie

    Getting demented in our old age, are we psyclaw?

    Okay, let me put it in black and white. Who else was it that thought they were the bee’s knees in using their limited abilities as a lawyer to attempt, pathetically, to diss me for not standing 4 square behind John Setka because, as the ‘evidence’ you ‘presented’ showed, he was completely innocent as charged, your honour. Then form that you drew a very long, barbed bow and aimed it at me because, apparently, I had a hide in suggesting, from the get-go, that Anthony Albanese was 100% correct in launching the case for John Setka to be expelled from the ALP.

    Well, with every new revelation about what a thug that man is, to his wife, for crying out loud, I haven’t seen one word of apology for your stout defence of the violent thug, not one. Yet you still are up there on your high horse thinking your judgement is better than mine and launching into me, yet again, with your smarmy ‘luvvie’ bullshit, instead of being possessed of the good graces and good judgement to admit. You. Were. Wrong. About. John. Setka. All. Along.

    Get over yourself, psyclaw. Just because you have 2 degrees and I only have a degree and a postgraduate diploma, doesn’t make you smarter or more right than me. No matter how many carefully-edited bullshit quotes you dredge up of mine that prove absolutely nothing at all at the end of the day.

    Admit you were wrong about John Setka. That’s all you have to do, luvvie.

    And don’t come the raw freaking prawn about what he did or didn’t say about Rosie Batty. Or try zoomster’s line about it all being a proxy for a factional stoush. Because I believe that Anthony Albanese is smart enough, unlike you and zoomster, to have realised that the best way to do the politics and to make a convincing argument to get this cancer on the Labor Party excised from it, was to hang his hat on the comments made about Rosie Batty, however artfully construed by Setka not to sound as if they were coming directly in his own voice they were.

    Smart politics. Something B Grade lawyers like you can never seem to get. Don’t blame me for that either, luv.

    Now piss off with your faux Mean Girl outrage. I have right on my side and all you have is a mealy-mouthed defence of a violent thug.

  4. William….I wonder what adjustments you have in mind for BludgerTrack, if any, considering the very large miss by the national polls.

    I wonder if you have any thoughts about the techniques and results used by WAOP, considering their claim to have been spot on with PV forecasting in Perth marginals?

  5. C@tmomma says:
    Saturday, June 22, 2019 at 8:32 pm
    Psyclaw @ #1350 Saturday, June 22nd, 2019 – 8:09 pm

    …….
    Now piss off with your faux Mean Girl outrage. I have right on my side and all you have is a mealy-mouthed defence of a violent thug.
    _________________________
    Oh dear – it sounds like you’ve come back from the boozer.

  6. briefly
    “I wonder what adjustments you have in mind for BludgerTrack, if any, considering the very large miss by the national polls.”
    In no disrespect to William, it’s a case of GIGO.

  7. C@t
    If you really had right on your side, Shorten and Gillard should have spent less of their time with their tongue tickling Setkas prostrate gland.

  8. ar
    Spell checker. Prostrate would be Gillard and Shortens aspect before Setka. Prostate gland. Setka has suddenly become the devil; he’s been a hero up until now.

  9. Diogenes
    says:
    Saturday, June 22, 2019 at 8:59 pm
    C@t
    If you really had right on your side, Shorten and Gillard should have spent less of their time with their tongue tickling Setkas prostrate gland.
    ______________________
    now that’s an image.

  10. William….I wonder what adjustments you have in mind for BludgerTrack, if any, considering the very large miss by the national polls.

    Only very minor ones. If the polls are wrong, BludgerTrack will be wrong — there’s not much you can do to “correct” for that that would be more reliable than tossing a coin. What I will do though is start doing probability estimates of one side or the other winning a majority based on the current trend measures, using highly conservative assumptions.

  11. C@t

    I note that along with your aggression malady you also have trouble comprehending written English.

    I won’t bother with a long winded rant …. that’s your style.

    In every post on the matter I have said (a) I hold no brief for Setka and (b) he has a long history of what you call thuggery. Please read that last sent
    Fence 3 or 4 times, and then you might understand it to some minimal extent.

    My only argument, supported by many here, is that on the specific matter of denigrating Ms Batty, there is no evidence and in fact there is contra evidence.

    And in rule of law societies, having a history of being a baddie plays no role in any current case.

    Albanese shot himself in the foot.

    Your pathetic unicorn along the lines “so you are standing shoulder to shoulder wth a thug” is quite pathetic, especially when it comes from someone who is so (self described) political savvy as you.

    BTW I note that earlier today you put up yet another untrue set of facts pertaining to suicide. I left it to others to correct you.

  12. Diogenes says:
    Saturday, June 22, 2019 at 9:08 pm

    ar
    Spell checker. Prostrate would be Gillard and Shortens aspect before Setka. Prostate gland. Setka has suddenly become the devil; he’s been a hero up until now.

    Win or lose, Albanese willing to take him on is a positive. Perhaps Gillard and Shortens had bigger fish to fry.

  13. “William….I wonder what adjustments you have in mind for BludgerTrack, if any, considering the very large miss by the national polls.”

    William. This whole “polls ere wrong”, “herding” thing. Any opinions on whether the polling of a panel rather than a broad random sample had any influence on that?

    I can understand the panel thing. Trying to follow changes over time in a cohort? But…thats a cohort of people who are engaged enough and can be bothered to respond repeatedly.

  14. Hate to say it, but I told youse so, about 4 days ago:

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-22/what-happened-in-the-crucial-ten-minutes-before-trump-cancelled/11237932

    ○ Trump never serious about bombing Iran, much less going to war,

    ○ Bolton in the dog house, an irritant now,

    Trump has received his instructions: “Hands off Iran”.

    He should content himself with picking up a few million in oil futures profits, and go home.

    It happened with Syria. It happened with North Korea, and with Venezuela. Now it’s happening with Iran. Wherever Russia has an interest, Trump dares not tread too heavily.

    Posturing and chicken-hawking is fine. Strutting back and forth making dark threats is the style. Gallons of testosterone poured over everything greases the redneck wheels. Makes him look like a forceful President, strong and tough, out to shirtfront Putin.

    All horseshit of course.

  15. Psyclaw @ #1364 Saturday, June 22nd, 2019 – 9:18 pm

    C@t

    I note that along with your aggression malady you also have trouble comprehending written English.

    I won’t bother with a long winded rant …. that’s your style.

    In every post on the matter I have said (a) I hold no brief for Setka and (b) he has a long history of what you call thuggery. Please read that last sent
    Fence 3 or 4 times, and then you might understand it to some minimal extent.

    My only argument, supported by many here, is that on the specific matter of denigrating Ms Batty, there is no evidence and in fact there is contra evidence.

    And in rule of law societies, having a history of being a baddie plays no role in any current case.

    Albanese shot himself in the foot.

    Your pathetic unicorn along the lines “so you are standing shoulder to shoulder wth a thug” is quite pathetic, especially when it comes from someone who is so (self described) political savvy as you.

    BTW I note that earlier today you put up yet another untrue set of facts pertaining to suicide. I left it to others to correct you.

    My god, have you been on the plonk tonight, psyclaw!?! So many mistakes and misleading untruths in one, rather long, if I may say so myself, rant, seeing as how I am the supposed expert on long-winded rants, like that’s a crime now, and so little realisation that you have been an apologist for Setka from the get-go. Now, of course, you have toned down your fervid support and are trying to rewrite history and say you hold no brief for Setka. Now it’s all about the punctilious point of whether Setka denigrated Rosie Batty directly or not.

    So, as you seem to be in low comprehension mode tonight, let me reiterate. John Setka, and I never said he did, did not directly denigrate Rosie Batty. John Setka did, by way of getting his point across, in a closed door meeting that was relayed to Anthony Albanese and Ben Schneiders, by those who were in the room, affirmed the opinion of his lawyers that Rosie Batty’s crusade to turn the tables in favour of abused women in the law, has been a success, and in the opinion of Setka’s lawyers, which Setka agreed with, this has set back men’s rights in the eyes of the law.

    THIS is the despicable opinion of Setka, once removed as he hides behind his lawyers, that I have condemned from Day 1. A man who, as the days have gone by and investigative reporters have gone about their work diligently to find out the truth of the matter, and which George Megalogenis approved wholeheartedly today, has been found out to have thrown his wife down the stairs, broken down the door she was cowering behind and proceeded to throw an Ipad at her head!

    And this is the man you are trying to beat me about the head with!?!

    Yes, I have taken the correct stand on this matter from Day 1 and if I have corrected the record since Day 1 as the facts became clearer that Setka didn’t personally denigrate Rosie Batty but sleazily hid behind his lawyers’ opinion of the effect her campaigning has had on cases such as he is about to face this week, that has not changed the outstanding fact that:

    * Anthony Albanese is 100% correct to have called for John Setka to be expelled from the Labor Party, as early as he did.

    * And you sneered at him for doing so. Continually. And me.

    Oh, and it was lizzie that brought up the, likely incorrect, Robodebt suicide rate by quoting a Tweet about it initially. Not me.

    You see, there you go again. Blinded by your inchoate attempt to get one over me you have simply made yourself look foolish.

  16. Bushfire Bill,
    Bill Maher made an excellent point about the faux attack on Iran by Trump, tonight on his show. He said it was a classic Reality TV fake. You build the audience up to an expected climax before an ad break but when you come back from the ad break the plot twist never eventuates and instead the tension is defused and a Reality TV sleight of hand has been effected. And someone gets the kudos for ‘defusing’ the tension.

  17. Diogenes @ #1358 Saturday, June 22nd, 2019 – 8:59 pm

    C@t
    If you really had right on your side, Shorten and Gillard should have spent less of their time with their tongue tickling Setkas prostrate gland.

    Isn’t this a case of hindsight by looking in the rear view mirror? Shorten maybe because he had the pact with the Victorian Industrial Left but I can’t see that Julia Gillard could be accused of anything more than trying to win the support of a very large union before any shit had hit the fan.

  18. Lars Von Trier @ #1356 Saturday, June 22nd, 2019 – 8:48 pm

    C@tmomma says:
    Saturday, June 22, 2019 at 8:32 pm
    Psyclaw @ #1350 Saturday, June 22nd, 2019 – 8:09 pm

    …….
    Now piss off with your faux Mean Girl outrage. I have right on my side and all you have is a mealy-mouthed defence of a violent thug.
    _________________________
    Oh dear – it sounds like you’ve come back from the boozer.

    You really are a pathetic One Trick Pony, ESJ.

    I actually went off and watched the Port Adelaide- Geelong AFL match tonight. And that was after I had prepared dinner for my family. No alcohol involved. No time away from home.

  19. C@t
    Setka should have been dealt with ages ago. He’s the archetypal union thug the voters hate. Labor went from excusing everything he did to expelling him from the party on a very poor pretence.
    My comment about Shortens shitty PV is with the benefit of hindsight but Gillard isn’t, although Labor should have been killing the Libs given how much disharmony the Libs has. There is just too much about Fed Labor that is insipid and fake. The Coalition don’t pretend that they aren’t arseholes (and neither does Trump) and the voters seem to prefer that.

  20. Hard to believe Trump cares about 150 deaths or has a genuine sense that the proposed retaliation was out of proportion. So I guess Putin told him not to is plausible, although I think he also has a few pillars he thinks he needs to stand by, being anti migrant of course, not spending American blood fighting for ungrateful foreigners is another.

    Happy to sell them the weapons to do it themselves of course.

    But nice that he accidentally did something good, like not kill a lot of people in pursuit of empire.

  21. And someone gets the kudos for ‘defusing’ the tension.

    Trump is that someone, of course. He’s thinking of the innocent soldiers, weighing up whether dealing death by the bushell, across a sovereign border, is an appropriate punishment for shooting down a pilotless drone. Oh, the humanity!

    I’d warrant that, if said drone WAS over Iranian territory when shot out of the sky, this would make a decision to bomb doubly difficult to pass off as justified (especially if Putin knows the truth). This may be what Trump found out in those last 10 minutes – but more likely he knew all along.

    The next problem is how to fire Bolton, who would have been ropeable, as he saw his toxic wet dream of starting another Middle East war – this time the Big One, against Iran – get hosed down by a President who isn’t as crazy as Bolton had been told he was. Perhaps Dubya phoned in with some friendly anecdotes about how crazy Bolton is? Whatever, Bolton has to go, and Trump has to negotiate with Iran. Either now or later, after cleaning some of the egg off his face. It ain’t easy, this Presidentin’.

  22. Diogenes @ #1380 Saturday, June 22nd, 2019 – 11:16 pm

    C@t
    Setka should have been dealt with ages ago. He’s the archetypal union thug the voters hate. Labor went from excusing everything he did to expelling him from the party on a very poor pretence.
    My comment about Shortens shitty PV is with the benefit of hindsight but Gillard isn’t, although Labor should have been killing the Libs given how much disharmony the Libs has. There is just too much about Fed Labor that is insipid and fake. The Coalition don’t pretend that they aren’t arseholes (and neither does Trump) and the voters seem to prefer that.

    Well, it looks to me like Anthony Albanese doesn’t care too much about showing us he has a pair either! And the public are seeming to like that as well.

  23. Bushfire Bill,
    Bolton AND Pompeo were gung ho for ‘Bomb! Bomb! Bomb Iran!’ So how do you get rid of another National Security Advisor and another Secretary of State? 🙂

  24. C@t
    We’ll see how it ends up. I like Albo but I don’t think he’s played this one very well. Should have waited for Setka to plead guilty to domestic abuse. Or given McManus more time to quietly shift Setka out.

  25. Dio,
    With the benefit of hindsight Setka SHOULD have been dealt with ages ago, however, when he was just throwing his weight and rage around against the Master Builders and Liberal cronies in Victoria, it was tolerated. When he started threatening ABCC Inspector’s kids and then, literally, using his weight to throw around his own wife is when it became intolerable. Arrogant comments, once removed, about Rosie Batty were the hook to hang it all on.

  26. And with the incident between Mark Field, a Tory MP in Britain, and an innocent woman protester who interrupted a posh dinner he was at to protest about Climate Change, still fresh in our minds, where he grabbed her by the throat and frog-marched her outside, comes this powerful column by Guardian journo, Suzanne Moore, and in light of our own Setka imbroglio I ask all to read it:

    The gut knows. The gut processes what the eye sees. A woman slammed up against a wall. A man, eyes bulging with rage, his hands on her. He pushes her out of the posh dinner, his hands gripping her neck. She is shocked. The gut twists at the familiarity. Male violence so everyday that many will have experienced it, many will have felt sick watching it – and somehow still ashamed to admit that this had happened to them too. Elsewhere, long ago, somewhere more private. No one saw.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/21/mark-field-video-male-violence-minister-female-protester

  27. I find this quite offensive.

    He’s asking people with probably far less money than him to fund his legal challenge, so he might continue to earn millions.

    If he’s so sure of his position, wouldn’t he receive legal costs as part of the judgment?

    Otherwise this is just him chasing further publicity and not wanting to meet the expense.

    Israel Folau’s Go Fund Me campaign raises half a million dollars

    He said: “My wife Maria and I have already spent over $100,000 of our own money, and that was just to try and deal with Rugby Australia’s internal tribunal processes. The money I am asking for is solely to fund the rest of my action in court.”

    This sums it up quite well.

    Folau’s former Wallabies teammate Drew Mitchell also slammed his decision, saying there were others more deserving of donations.

    “YOU are in a fight that YOU chose to be in after YOU broke the terms of YOUR contract, the kids below are in a fight they NEVER wanted to be in & yet YOU think YOU deserve donations more than they do??!!,” he posted on Twitter.

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2019/jun/22/israel-folaus-go-fund-me-campaign-raises-half-a-million-dollars

  28. Barney in Makassar,

    A rugby fan has launched a GoFundMe campaign aiming to raise “more funds than Folau” for an LGBT rights charity, in an attempt to show the controversial rugby player that “intolerance will not be tolerated”.

    Launched two days after Israel Folau asked for public donations for his legal action against Rugby Australia, the campaign aims to raise funds for Stonewall, the UK charity behind a “Rainbow Laces initiative” in 2018, which encouraged sports players to stamp out homophobia in sport.

    https://www.smh.com.au/sport/rugby-union/more-funds-than-folau-rugby-fan-sets-up-counter-gofundme-for-lgbt-charity-20190622-p520bf.html

    🙂

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