Tasmanian Senate entrails examined

As the finalised Senate results are unrolled one by one, a deep dive into the preference distribution from Tasmania.

A summary of what remains to be resolved of election counting:

• The button is yet to be pressed on five of the eight Senate counts, with Tasmania, the Australian Capital Territory and Northern Territory completed and fully published. More on the Tasmanian result below.

• The Coalition-versus-Labor two-party preferred preference count for Farrer is 54% complete, with the remainder presumably to be knocked over today. Only then will we have a definitive total for the national two-party preferred, but the remaining uncertainty is relevant only to the second decimal place: to the first, the Coalition will finish with 51.5%, a swing of either 1.1% or 1.2%.

• Preference distributions for lower house seats are yet to be published, though in some cases they have assuredly been conducted. As noted previously, only with the distribution could the theoretical (though not practical) possibility of One Nation winning Hunter from Labor be ruled out.

I will be taking a deep dive into each Senate result as they are reported. As discussed here, none of the results are seriously in doubt, with the highly arguable exception of Queensland.

The chart below shows how the late stages of the preference distribution for Tasmania proceeded, after the election of the first three candidates and the elimination of lower order candidates and parties (the latter included independent Craig Garland, who managed a disappointing 3475 votes, compared with the 6633 he polled at last year’s Braddon by-election). The first three were the top two on the Liberal ticket, Richard Colbeck and Claire Chandler, and the first on Labor’s, Carol Brown. Both Liberal and Labor polled clear of two quotas (the primary vote totals can be found here), but owing to Tasmania’s high rate of below-the-line voting (28% in this case), neither scored over two quotas on above-the-line votes alone. However, Chandler was promptly elected after Colbeck as most of his below-the-line votes proceeded straight down the Liberal ticket.

The situation for Labor was more complicated owing to Lisa Singh, who again had to campaign for below-the-line votes to retain her seat after the party placed her fourth on the ticket. This she was able to accomplish at the 2016 double dissolution, when she won Labor’s fifth seat from number six on the ticket. This time though she had the effectively impossible task of winning one of two Labor seats from number four. Singh scored 5.68% of the first preference vote, slightly down on her 6.12% in 2016. This meant she remained in the count longer than the candidate one place above her, who on both occasions was John Short, but she was well behind the second candidate on the Labor ticket, Catryna Bilyk, who received all the above-the-line votes remaining after the election of Brown.

As the chart demonstrates, the race for the last three seats was not close – Labor was always going to win a second seat; Liberal and Labor were both only slightly in excess of two quotas; and the respective vote shares of 12.57% for the Greens and 8.92% for the Jacqui Lambie Network guaranteed them both a seat. Nick McKim of the Greens edged over the line to take the fourth seat after the preferences of various minor parties were distributed. Bilyk and Lambie were both pushed over a quota at the point where Singh was excluded, very slightly behind One Nation candidate Matthew Stephen, although it would have made no difference if Stephen had gone out first. The result was thus clear-cut enough that all elected candidates achieved quotas in their own right, which is not guaranteed under the new Senate electoral system under which some votes can exhaust.

The table below records “four-party preferred” preference splits for those parties that failed to win seats (including Craig Garland as “Group O”).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

445 comments on “Tasmanian Senate entrails examined”

  1. Frednk

    Cat has linked to an article from The Australian.

    I expect you to admonish her as you did me for the same, apparently, heinous crime.

  2. nath says:
    Monday, June 17, 2019 at 9:33 pm
    It’s just the same old lies.

    The dirt on Albo
    Glady’s girlfriend on stage
    Tony Burke’s brilliant legal career
    No that’s not a telecommunications tower, it’s a ‘muslim call to prayer thingy’.

    etc. etc
    _________________________
    +1

  3. Just baseless allegations from C@tmomma to smear the labour movement time and time again. The defender of the SDA who opposes left wing unions. She prefers her unions ripping off teenagers.

  4. nath @ #405 Monday, June 17th, 2019 – 9:33 pm

    It’s just the same old lies.

    The dirt on Albo
    Glady’s girlfriend on stage
    Tony Burke’s brilliant legal career
    No that’s not a telecommunications tower, it’s a ‘muslim call to prayer thingy’.

    etc. etc

    Sure, nath. Just ignore the facts and create your own fables instead.

    You may want to stop LYING about what I said about Tony Bourke for a start. All I ever said was that I was told that IF he had decided to become a barrister, instead of going into politics, he would have been one of the best. Maybe the person who said that to me knew this about him:

    He attended the University of Sydney where he graduated with a Bachelor of Arts and Bachelor of Laws. He was also awarded the Martin Sorensen Trophy for Best Speaker at the 1994 Australasian Intervarsity Debating Championships

    But you go on spreading your lies, it’s all you’re good at. I ignore it most of the time because they are frankly laughable.

  5. Dean Mighell defenders fascinating stuff.
    I think Briefly has to add old left wing war horses trying to re-live the past using the Greens to the list of issues Labor faces.

  6. @Psyclaw My dad was a patternmaker he worked at the railway workshops, and his bother was an underground coalminer, they were both hardcore labor.

    On the other side of the family my mum had two brothers one was a self employed bricklayer and the other was a self employed plasterer and they both hated Labor with a passion, indeed at family gatherings politics was pretty much off limits.

    I am talking early/mid seventies here so self employed tradespeople were certainly around back then and they voted liberal, at least that is my boyhood memories.


  7. Pegasus says:
    Monday, June 17, 2019 at 9:36 pm

    Frednk

    Cat has linked to an article from The Australian.

    I expect you to admonish her as you did me for the same, apparently, heinous crime.

    I do remember stating the Australian is not a top notch source, you do have to see some sort of backup material. In this case for me discussions in a site shed. Tradesman are not left wing. Dean Mighell overstepped the mark.

  8. C@tmomma
    says:
    Sunday, February 24, 2019 at 3:27 pm
    I remember now what was said and am correcting the record.
    I was told once that Tony Bourke, if he didn’t go into politics, would have been a top barrister. He has a very fine legal mind.
    ________________________________
    No you called him a ‘top barrister’ and then corrected yourself here to amend the record.

  9. Any way whether they be butcher’s baker’s candlestickmaker’s solicitors or accountant’s succesful small business people always have and always will be a rusted on liberal voting demographic, the point is these are not the people who are winning elections for the liberal party.

    The seat data suggests it is households with the below median incomes that swung to the liberal party the very people c@t thinks are the vanguard of modern labor but are obviously not.

  10. Qanda is actually somewhat depressing in the sense that we are still trying the make the case for action on AGW, using the same arguments we’ve been hearing for 2 decades.

    If nothing else, tonight’s Qanda is emblematic of the abject failure of the Greens party.

  11. Listening to Burke trying to advocate for Labor during the recent election campaign I can’t imagine him as a barrister.

  12. nath @ #425 Monday, June 17th, 2019 – 9:51 pm

    C@tmomma
    says:
    Sunday, February 24, 2019 at 3:27 pm
    I remember now what was said and am correcting the record.
    I was told once that Tony Bourke, if he didn’t go into politics, would have been a top barrister. He has a very fine legal mind.
    ________________________________
    No you called him a ‘top barrister’ and then corrected yourself here to amend the record.

    Bullshit. However, if you can prove it then I obviously misspoke because I know what I was told. Nevertheless it’s enough for you to try and hang me with. Which is pretty pathetic.

    Also, I don’t have a ‘dirt file’ on Anthony Albanese. I just know that he was mentioned in the NSW ICAC for his close relationship with and preselection defence of the corrupt former NSW Labor Minister, Ian Macdonald.

    Also, could you please stop the bullshit slander:

    Just baseless allegations from C@tmomma to smear the labour movement time and time again. The defender of the SDA who opposes left wing unions. She prefers her unions ripping off teenagers.

    I honestly don’t know why Mr Bowe lets you get away with it.

    So I wouldn’t pat myself on the back and feel ‘vindicated’ if I were you. You have proven nothing. All you have done is abused me based upon zero of substance. Oh well, in your obviously lonely life I guess it gives you comfort to abuse people on the internet.

  13. Lucky Creed @ #426 Monday, June 17th, 2019 – 9:51 pm

    Any way whether they be butcher’s baker’s candlestickmaker’s solicitors or accountant’s succesful small business people always have and always will be a rusted on liberal voting demographic, the point is these are not the people who are winning elections for the liberal party.

    The seat data suggests it is households with the below median incomes that swung to the liberal party the very people c@t thinks are the vanguard of modern labor but are obviously not.

    I see it’s kick the C@t night tonight.

  14. Lucky Creed,
    I kind of know that it is the people of the lower socioeconomic demographics, as well as the wealthy skilled blue collar workers, that voted for the Coalition, not to mention their natural base in small and large businesses.

    However, it’s also true that there are those among them who aren’t virulently anti Labor and are still talking to the party even this soon after a Coalition election win.

  15. michael @ #309 Monday, June 17th, 2019 – 6:49 pm

    Leeanne Enoch has told an anti-Adani protester she is devastated by the decision to approve the Adani Mine.

    Good, honesty. She should stand by that.

    Since she has come up with a few woeful excuses to what she actually mean’t .

    Shame. She couldn’t even last two sentences. The only ‘excuse’ she needs is “we have to administer the government competently, fairly, and professionally and not according to our personal preferences and whims”.

  16. C@T No what I am referring to is your reference in previous posts to the fact that low paid female workers are now the vanguard of the labor movement, there is zero evidence to suggest this is true and indeed some tentative evidence to suggest they are drifting away from Labor.

    The only reason I mention you as that you are a member of the Labor Party so If you are misreading the data chances are so are the officer class.

  17. The remark by Leeanne Enoch – the headline – is transparently disingenuous. She was set up by the Irregulars.

    I really do think they should rename the Galilee Basin Lib-kin Valley and the railway should be named the Bob Brown Express.

  18. Lucky Creed @ #440 Monday, June 17th, 2019 – 10:25 pm

    C@T No what I am referring to is your reference in previous posts to the fact that low paid female workers are now the vanguard of the labor movement, there is zero evidence to suggest this is true and indeed some tentative evidence to suggest they are drifting away from Labor.

    The only reason I mention you as that you are a member of the Labor Party so If you are misreading the data chances are so are the officer class.

    Aged care workers are low paid, and mostly female.

    Disability care workers are low paid. A lot of them are female.

    Child care workers are low paid and overwhelmingly female

    Retail workers are not highly paid and are predominantly female.

    Nurses are better paid but are also highly unionised.

    They are all in the vanguard of unionism in the 21st century.

    Are they not?

  19. I see Mr Folau has been preaching in his Church and apparently that is bad.

    As an Atheist I encourage all the SJW lefties of the ALP and Greens to once again condemn his terrible behavior – you know that goes down well in the critical marginal seats.

  20. Catmomma,

    Where is the urgent drive to fix the gender imbalance in those industries? I can’t believe it is allowed to be so bad.

  21. How do you know they are voting Labor? Evidence suggests that at this election they swung away from Labor, not much of a vanguard.

  22. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jun/17/india-heatwave-rain-brings-respite-for-some-but-death-toll-rises

    Nature….the Liberals use it to campaign against Labor. The Greens – the Irregulars – also use it to campaign against Labor. The impacts of climate change intensify and become more conspicuous. They are common knowledge now. They are endogenous and irresistible. Nature delivers more and more drama, more and more anxiety, more and more loss. Labor is part of the collateral damage that accompanies loss.

    The young people of the world deserve so much better than we are giving them. We have betrayed our own children. We are disgusting. We should be ashamed of ourselves. But the clever-dicks applaud themselves. They are proud of their cynicism, their shrewdness. They think they will master the situation. They are completely wrong.

  23. C@t is right about the feminisation of the Labor Movement. This is both a natural consequence of the changes in the composition of the workforce and of its sexist nature. Women are more likely to be found in the most vulnerable and least-well paid occupations. They are among those most likely to be exploited, to be precariously engaged in work, to be penalised for who they are.

    They are also exemplars of solidarity. So many of the people I campaign with are young women. They are inspirational. They are true believers and great campaigners.

  24. ‘The only reason I mention you as that you are a member of the Labor Party so If you are misreading the data chances are so are the officer class.’

    What a twitty statement.

  25. Bob Hawke fought for equal pay for women. Like Gough, he also fought for the equal treatment of women in many other ways. Labor fought for change in the community and it has changed itself too. We have to continue the fight. Bill Shorten made the point at a Town Hall meeting in Carramar. He was asked if there was one thing he would like to do more than anything else; that would deliver more than anything else. He replied that the advancement of women alone, even if nothing else were achieved, would make the greatest difference. He would be content to be remembered for that if nothing else. He was completely correct.

  26. ‘Heiko Maas, the German foreign minister, said the EU states “continue to gather information” [“what is this bullshit lol”] while Dutch foreign minister Stef Blok said the Netherlands was “interested in any clarifications that can be made available” [’I could pull more convincing fake incidents out of my ass’]’
    *auto-translated from diplomatic language

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/gulf-of-oman-iran-tanker-attack-eu-uk-trump-uk-evidence-investigation-a8961776.html

  27. Trump is looking for a pretext for war. This is not surprising, considering his chronically low popularity, the weakness in the economy and the chaos in his administration. The US has a very poor record in the Middle East, having achieved nothing but failures ever since it first became involved there after WW2. The US has spilled the blood of many millions simply for its own sake. They should be dissuaded from further war; and they certainly should not be joined in any new military adventure.

    There is no Australian interest that can be served by further war-making in the Gulf. There is certainly no legal case for war. There is simply political expedience in Washington. This is not a reason for Australia to become involved.

    It’s also the case that the US has not forgiven Iran for the humiliations of the Revolution in 1978, nor for successfully defying them in the Iraq/Iran War, and still less for defeating US proxies in Syria. The US will want to assert its power simply from the need to gratify itself – for reasons of prestige and political desperation. Australia should stay right out of this.

    Only woe will ensue if war is commenced. Iran is a substantial country. It has allies in Russia and in China. War with Iran would inevitably have profound consequences for all the States in Central Asia and the Gulf; and there would be disruption in the energy markets that would seriously harm the world economy. Perhaps Trump sees this as a good reason for war. The US is a net energy exporter now and may see turmoil in the global economy – in the economies of the oil importing countries – as a way to restore US economic hegemony, matching its military dominance.

    In any case, Australian interests are best served by peace and by creating distance between ourselves and the Trump regime. We should avoid being drawn into his destructive schemes.

  28. We should recall the description of Trump made by Rex Tillerson, Trump’s first Secretary of State. After seeing Trump up close, Tillerson concluded ‘He’s a f353546 moron.’

    Trump has only got worse.

  29. Hola Bludgers from West Bohemia, where you can see why Hitler annexed this area in 1938 – ‘Sudetenland’ – with the willing acquiescence of Neville Chamberlain. It is a place of rich historical, natural, agricultural and cultural beauty, now much happier now being part of the EU.

    And for a very off-topic suggestion, for those who may have liked Nirvana’s Smells like Teen Spirit, check this version by an 11 year old Taiwanese ukulele player Feng E…

    https://youtu.be/hQhk_c8QojQ

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