A summary of what remains to be resolved of election counting:
• The button is yet to be pressed on five of the eight Senate counts, with Tasmania, the Australian Capital Territory and Northern Territory completed and fully published. More on the Tasmanian result below.
• The Coalition-versus-Labor two-party preferred preference count for Farrer is 54% complete, with the remainder presumably to be knocked over today. Only then will we have a definitive total for the national two-party preferred, but the remaining uncertainty is relevant only to the second decimal place: to the first, the Coalition will finish with 51.5%, a swing of either 1.1% or 1.2%.
• Preference distributions for lower house seats are yet to be published, though in some cases they have assuredly been conducted. As noted previously, only with the distribution could the theoretical (though not practical) possibility of One Nation winning Hunter from Labor be ruled out.
I will be taking a deep dive into each Senate result as they are reported. As discussed here, none of the results are seriously in doubt, with the highly arguable exception of Queensland.
The chart below shows how the late stages of the preference distribution for Tasmania proceeded, after the election of the first three candidates and the elimination of lower order candidates and parties (the latter included independent Craig Garland, who managed a disappointing 3475 votes, compared with the 6633 he polled at last year’s Braddon by-election). The first three were the top two on the Liberal ticket, Richard Colbeck and Claire Chandler, and the first on Labor’s, Carol Brown. Both Liberal and Labor polled clear of two quotas (the primary vote totals can be found here), but owing to Tasmania’s high rate of below-the-line voting (28% in this case), neither scored over two quotas on above-the-line votes alone. However, Chandler was promptly elected after Colbeck as most of his below-the-line votes proceeded straight down the Liberal ticket.
The situation for Labor was more complicated owing to Lisa Singh, who again had to campaign for below-the-line votes to retain her seat after the party placed her fourth on the ticket. This she was able to accomplish at the 2016 double dissolution, when she won Labor’s fifth seat from number six on the ticket. This time though she had the effectively impossible task of winning one of two Labor seats from number four. Singh scored 5.68% of the first preference vote, slightly down on her 6.12% in 2016. This meant she remained in the count longer than the candidate one place above her, who on both occasions was John Short, but she was well behind the second candidate on the Labor ticket, Catryna Bilyk, who received all the above-the-line votes remaining after the election of Brown.
As the chart demonstrates, the race for the last three seats was not close – Labor was always going to win a second seat; Liberal and Labor were both only slightly in excess of two quotas; and the respective vote shares of 12.57% for the Greens and 8.92% for the Jacqui Lambie Network guaranteed them both a seat. Nick McKim of the Greens edged over the line to take the fourth seat after the preferences of various minor parties were distributed. Bilyk and Lambie were both pushed over a quota at the point where Singh was excluded, very slightly behind One Nation candidate Matthew Stephen, although it would have made no difference if Stephen had gone out first. The result was thus clear-cut enough that all elected candidates achieved quotas in their own right, which is not guaranteed under the new Senate electoral system under which some votes can exhaust.
The table below records “four-party preferred” preference splits for those parties that failed to win seats (including Craig Garland as “Group O”).
Why do we worry about 2PP in seats where one of the major parties is not really in the running.
Many voters who put minor parties and independents first may well have both major parties well down their priority list. They are only an afterthought.
Pretty meaningless IMHO
Joe Hilderbrand on the possible motivations of Anthony Albanese in calling for John Setka to be expelled from the ALP.
https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/joe-hildebrand-how-anthony-albanese-used-john-setka-to-send-a-message-to-labor-and-the-nation/news-story/7bfcdfe28053a7cc98a6f67f725420c2
Trump boasts voters will ‘demand’ he remain president after his second term ends in bonkers tweetstorm
In yet another attack on the New York Times and the Washington Post, Donald Trump suggested Americans will “demand” he stay on as president after his second term concludes.
Taking to Twitter, Trump wrote, “A poll should be done on which is the more dishonest and deceitful newspaper, the Failing New York Times or the Amazon (lobbyist) Washington Post! They are both a disgrace to our Country, the Enemy of the People, but I just can’t seem to figure out which is worse? .”
He then added, “The good news is that at the end of 6 years, after America has been made GREAT again and I leave the beautiful White House (do you think the people would demand that I stay longer? KEEP AMERICA GREAT), both of these horrible papers will quickly go out of business & be forever gone!”
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/06/trump-boasts-voters-will-demand-he-remain-president-after-his-second-term-ends-in-bonkers-tweetstorm/
Trump campaign cutting ties with three members of polling team after grim numbers leaked
President Trump’s campaign is cutting ties with three members of his polling team after grim numbers showing him trailing former vice president Joe Biden in several battleground states were leaked to the media last week, according to several officials with knowledge of the matter.
The news comes days after a New York Times report on a 17-state internal poll conducted by Fabrizio that showed Trump trailing Biden by double digits in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida and Michigan, where Trump narrowly edged out Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in 2016. The poll also found Trump trailing Biden in several other states that were key to the president’s win — Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio and Georgia — while holding a narrow edge in strongly Republican Texas.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-campaign-cutting-ties-with-three-members-of-polling-team-after-grim-numbers-leaked/2019/06/16/42069638-9054-11e9-b58a-a6a9afaa0e3e_story.html?utm_term=.71b317d6c538
phoenixRED @ #3 Monday, June 17th, 2019 – 6:46 am
Lol, now Trump is trying to Tweet like a king! ‘Be forever gone!’ 😆
And Trump will be 80 and completely demented by the end of his second term! 😆 😆
You know, I’ve always thought that – if he did win a second term – Trump would then fight tooth and nail to repeal the 22nd amendment. I don’t know if it would be possible to pull it off in such a way that it no longer prevented him from running again (as opposed to just his successors), but if anyone would try, its him.
And as existentially horrifying as the prospect of twelve years of President Donald Trump is, I don’t actually know if losing the 22nd amendment would be such a bad thing. Hell, if Barack Obama wasn’t restricted by term limits, there’s a good chance he’d still be president.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
A delated Ross Gittins opines that the election was lost by the party proposing to remove a long list of sectional tax breaks and use the proceeds to increase spending on hospitals, schools and childcare, and won by the party that couldn’t agree on any major policies bar a humungous tax cut. He bemoans that in a world where switched-off swinging voters aren’t even guided by informed self-interest, the scare campaign is king. To be blunt, the best liars win.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/controversial-reforms-stalled-until-politicians-win-back-our-trust-20190615-p51y2o.html
And Greg Jericho explains why it’s time for a post-election reality check – and a budget reboot!
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2019/jun/15/time-for-a-post-election-reality-check-and-a-budget-reboot
Tony Walker severely criticises this government’s China policy which he says is in flux, under stress and confused. He concludes the article by saying that China policy is much too important to be left to a non-accountable security establishment.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/australia-has-a-china-problem-and-we-can-t-leave-it-to-faceless-spooks-20190614-p51xpx.html
In a signal it could continue to fight tax cuts for high-income earners, Labor is demanding the government release detailed data on the cost of its tax cut plan.
https://www.outline.com/uNMmzu
The Coalition’s plan to flatten tax brackets for middle to high income earners will provide twice as much benefit to men than women, a new analysis has found.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jun/17/coalitions-tax-plan-would-benefit-men-almost-twice-as-much-as-women-analysis-finds
Matt Holden tells us that Adani is not about jobs, and it never really was.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/adani-is-not-about-jobs-and-never-really-was-20190614-p51xu0.html
Matt Wade writes that NSW is fearful of being duded with the GST carve up despite undertakings from the federal government.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/nsw-fears-being-short-changed-despite-guarantees-on-new-gst-carve-up-20190616-p51y7w.html
Alexandra Smith reports that thousands of students across NSW will be given free breakfasts every morning, with the Berejiklian government to roll-out a program to provide healthy meals in 500 schools.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/free-breakfasts-in-hundreds-of-nsw-public-schools-to-fight-food-poverty-20190616-p51y6j.html
Despite months of controversy and two investigations Paladin is set to have its $20 million a month contract extended.
https://www.outline.com/YKKz9V
According to Sam Maiden John Setka has warned he will hit Anthony Albanese with a legal challenge if he tries to expel him from the party and is threatening to withdraw millions of dollars in funding.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/06/16/john-setka-albanese-court/
And she reports that the Labor Party has emerged from the election in the red and is bracing for a $1.8 million budget black hole because it budgeted for a higher primary vote.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/election-2019/2019/06/16/labor-election-budget-blackhole/
The idiot Folau has let fly again!
https://www.smh.com.au/sport/rugby-union/folau-launches-fresh-attack-on-gay-people-transgender-youths-20190617-p51yba.html
Australia’s peak car dealer body is examining a High Court challenge against increased stamp duties on motor vehicles priced over $100,000,.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/peak-car-dealer-body-plans-high-court-challenge-over-new-stamp-duties-20190616-p51y7p.html
Judith Ireland explains how the Morrison government wants to grow the prefabricated building industry to create more jobs and tiny homes.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-government-s-bid-to-grow-tiny-home-industry-20190614-p51xsu.html
Jennifer Duke reports that ABC managing director David Anderson will push for a greater diversity of viewpoints among guests on its panel shows as the broadcaster braces for more “tough” budget decisions including a review of the controversial digital website Life. Perhaps they need to balance truth with lies and exposure with complicit cover up.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/abc-boss-to-push-for-more-diversity-of-views-among-panel-show-guests-20190616-p51y7k.html
More than 3900 survivors of child sexual abuse have applied to the national redress scheme, but Labor has warned it is moving too slowly. Less than 200 payouts have been made to date.
https://www.outline.com/qde5N8
It was drier in parts of NSW, Queensland, central South Australia, Tasmania and much of Western Australia in December last year than at the height of the Millennium drought. That’s according to scientists from the Australian National University, who developed software to analyse data from water-tracking satellites.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6219833/drier-than-millenium-drought-satellite-shows-toll-of-big-dry/?cs=14231&utm_source=website&utm_medium=home&utm_campaign=latestnews
Michelle Grattan writes that Lambie’s vote will be key if the government wants to have the medevac legislation repealed.
https://theconversation.com/lambies-vote-key-if-government-wants-to-have-medevac-repealed-118905
Scott Morrison has effectively employed a suburban dad persona to conceal his neoliberal, divisive political vision, writes Davey Heller.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/scott-morrison-daggy-dad-or-australias-trump,12807
Professor of Economics Robert Slonim explains how retailers bury customers in an avalanche of choice and leave us worse off.
https://theconversation.com/inducing-consumer-paralysis-how-retailers-bury-customers-in-an-avalanche-of-choice-116078
Nicole Hemmer writes that Sarah Sanders was able to leave the job with Trump’s blessing because she served not the presidency but the President, furthering Donald Trump’s goal of diminishing the press to the point that a press secretary seemed unnecessary. It’s one more worrisome sign for democracy, she says.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/as-trump-turned-to-twitter-his-press-secretary-made-herself-redundant-20190614-p51xsh.html
Ross Barkan says there’s no point in replacing her.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/15/dont-bother-replacing-sarah-sanders-theres-no-point
Hong Kong chief executive Carrie Lam issued an apology but resisted calls to step down after an estimated 2 million people marched through the city’s streets expressing anger at her extradition bill.
https://www.theage.com.au/world/asia/carrie-lam-apologises-as-millions-march-in-hong-kong-20190617-p51yb7.html
Now the demented Trump has warned, on Twitter of course, that the US would face an epic stock market crash if he’s not re-elected. This guy is dead set dangerous!
https://www.theage.com.au/business/markets/trump-warns-of-historic-wall-street-crash-if-he-is-not-re-elected-20190617-p51ybi.html
Cartoon Corner
Pat Campbell has a problem with the job figures.
Matt Golding on Adani and the Spud.
Roy Taylor at the footy.
Johannes Leak earns his pay.
https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/f86d6fb907b33f22b4f9b05ec0d7e186?width=1024
From the US
Australians are lazy sods:
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/carrie-lam-apologises-as-millions-march-in-hong-kong-20190617-p51yb7.html
@kackles74
My wife and I sat in our empty restaurant for an hour tonight. It’s pretty depressing. This time last year and years past we were half to 3/4 full. We have employees that need dollars to survive and we just don’t have the work for them. What say you @MathiasCormann ?
What say you @MathiasCormann ?
___
Labor. Bill Shorten. Labor. Setka.
C@tmomma – Imagine what Trump will be like at the end of his fourth term!
BK says:
So pretty much like watching a repeat of The Insiders ?
Asha Leu @ #7 Monday, June 17th, 2019 – 7:11 am
The problem with that theory is that you could have had a supremely popular Ronald Reagan ruling until he died. From Alzheimers.
Bellwether @ #12 Monday, June 17th, 2019 – 7:38 am
Ronald Reagan?
Zoidlord @ #10 Monday, June 17th, 2019 – 7:31 am
Pay. Them. Less.
Drought in India
And dickheads in Aus want mining:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jun/12/indian-villages-lie-empty-as-drought-forces-thousands-to-flee
Morning all
Thanks BK, Phoenix and ors for latest.
Is Labor going to start holding Morrison and co to account anytime soon? This is getting a tad frustrating.
This is a very worrying article. Not all of it may be true, but if some is…
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/scott-morrison-daggy-dad-or-australias-trump,12807
Trump’s Twitter rants are usually indicative of wanting to distract from the real game.
Which is precisely what his GOP enablers want him to do.
@lizzie
I read that article in the Independent Australia as well, personally we as a country won’t see a Bernie Sanders or Jeremy Corbyn style figure, until we have an economic crisis (like both America and Britain have had), that I am predicting will occur in the next couple of years.
Our economy avoided the sort of economic crisis during the Global Financial Crisis, which made a lot of people in America and Britain serious question Neoliberal economics. This process has not occurred in Australia yet, indeed Labor under the leadership of Anthony Albanese is talking more about making the economic pie bigger, than cutting it up more equally.
Any ideas on who in politics currently who would become such a figure?
Lizzie
Labor only has to look at what transpired in the US and UK to understand where things were headed.
Feedback I get from people is quite telling.
They have no clue as to policy etc., but will mention the out of control Sudanese gangs terrorising Melbourne.
It just illustrates how the low information, fear of the other, is filtered through above all else.
It is quite depressing.
The liberals tried to win a state election on this and only failed due to the productive term the Andrew’s govt has had with rail crossing removals, upgrades to hospitals, paramedics getting better deal, and other policy initiatives.
Otherwise the fear tactics would have no doubt worked.
We aren’t the US or the UK. Australia has a great swathe of middle class voters that need to be catered to and that is where Labor should direct their energies. Not at the lumpen proletariat because they just want to get out of there and become middle class. Which was Hawke and Keating’s genius. They appealed to them. And won and won and won.
Proof that governments cannot ‘manage’ the environment.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/state/nsw/2019/06/16/murray-river-missing-water/
‘…we as a country won’t see a Bernie Sanders or Jeremy Corbyn style figure..’
Seriously, do we want to?
Thing is, out of all the US Presidents who’ve served since the 22nd Amendment was passed, the only ones who I believe would have had a chance of winning a third term were Eisenhower, Reagan, and Obama. Ford, Carter, and Bush Sr. were all defeated in their first term, JFK was assassinated, Nixon resigned, Clinton and Bush Jr. were too politically damaged, and LBJ actually was eligible to run for a third term (thanks to the vagaries of vice presidential succession), but couldn’t make it past the early primaries. On top of that, it was already widely accepted practice for a president to step down after two terms, ever since George Washington did so – in the roughly 160 years or so before the 22nd Ammendment was passed, FDR was the only president to ever win a third term (though I believe a few others did try, unsuccessfully.) Given how exhausting and draining the presidency is, I can’t imagine there’d be many who would even want a third term – but if someone did decide to run again, and there was public demand for them to do so, I don’t see why they shouldn’t be able to.
The thing with Reagan is – there are many suggestions that he already was suffering from the early symptoms of Alzheimer’s during the latter half of his term. Right now, there’s nothing stopping anyone with Alzheimer’s or any other medical conditions that would make them unfit to serve from running for president, being elected, and having a whole 4-8 years before the 22nd Amendment kicks in. Certainly, Trump doesn’t seem to be functioning on a full tank much of the time, and it’ll be a long time before he’s affected by the 22nd Amendment. The answer to issues like this isn’t the 22nd Amendment, but rather the 25th Amendment, which gives cabinet and congress the power to force the president to stand down if they do not believe they are mentally fit for office.
lizzie
To be fair, what’s being described is a consequence of irrigation, full stop. Unless conservationists are proposing that we rip out the dams and let the rivers run naturally (which would dramatically reduce our food security), it’s hard to see how this can be managed.
Farms need water in summer, when there’s not as much rain – by definition, this is unnatural.
lizzie
There is much truth in the article.
.
Victoria
‘Fear of the other’ is a very seductive message when people are fearful of their future prospects and fell no/little optimism their current position will improve. Come on down wage stagnation, over priced houses, mortgage stress,inequality,insecure employment etc. A ‘virtuous circle’ for the Coalition, create such conditions then exploit the ‘fear of the other’ to gather more votes.
C@t
There are a lot of Australians that believe they are middleclass, and hence have the idea of being aspirational. They aspire to having investments either through property or shares.
The reality is that they are living week to week and dont actually have funds in reserve to cover unforeseen expenses or loss of income.
I continue to be amazed by how many people have a lifestyle which does not match their actual income.
Poroti
Precisely.
zoomster
I say let ‘er rip, let all the Nats voters have a free hand, first in best dressed. Let them see what the result of voting for the Barnaby Joyce party come hell or
highno water is. Could do with a steaming bowl of schadenfreudezoomster
The timing was wrong, and small farmers were disadvantaged by prioritising the large almond farmers.
lizzie
That’s my whole point – the timing can never be right. Farms need water at precisely the time the environment doesn’t normally get it. By definition.
Morning all.
Remember the Trump era is a slow moving coup. But Victoria is right: his demented twitter rages are usually masking something else happening in the background.
Almond growing is the ‘best use of water’ —
https://www.irrigationaustralia.com.au/news/mighty-murray-waters-the-almond-trees-worth-1bn-by-2025
(I’m not advocating here, I’m trying to make it clear that the complexity of the issue…)
zoomster
Profitable almonds for large corporations over all the other environmental benefits plus small farmers?
What now that Labor have said; this is bullshit; a reporter has worked out the honest truth.
The Greens and the Liberals have completely done Labor over.
Now we start seeing the excuses for why it is not happening.
Adani has become more than a coal mine (although it’s not even that yet, and maybe never will be)
https://www.smh.com.au/national/adani-is-not-about-jobs-and-never-really-was-20190614-p51xu0.html
lizzie
The same amount of water would still be used, at the same time of the year, but for a less profitable crop.
If the almond growers depart, someone else will buy the water. They will also use irrigation water, in summer. Summer is when, by definition, crops need water, and that’s the whole purpose of the irrigation system – to deliver an unnatural flow of water.
All that would happen is that there would be less money made out of the water.
Irrigation is what creates the problem, not the crop it’s used for.
Victoria
I think Australians love to suffer, that’s why they voted liberals.
Yep. Trump is the master liar in chief.
Aaron Rupar
@atrupar
Every sentence of this tweet contains a unique lie
1. The poll Trump cites indicates only 48% oppose impeachment hearings
2. Trump’s campaign chairman, security adviser, & lawyer have all been convicted of crimes
3. Trump is clearly open to foreign interference — again
Quote Tweet
Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
· 1h
Almost 70% in new Poll say don’t impeach. So ridiculous to even be talking about this subject when all of the crimes were committed by the other side. They can’t win the election fairly!
….and don’t romanticise small farmers! They’re far more likely to cause environmental damage than a large, cashed up corporation.
*apologies to Boer, who is one of the good guys.
Confessions
.
Funnily enough the US RWNJies have been saying the same thing, except the ‘coup’ is against Trump by ‘The Deep State” .
zoomster
We can probably agree on that.
lizzie
The “working class”, whatever that is, only has relevance if people self identify as being a member of that class.
Pelosi consolidates her authority within her party.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/push-to-impeach-trump-stalls-amid-democrats-deference-to–and-fear-of–pelosi/2019/06/16/d6df3d44-8d2c-11e9-8f69-a2795fca3343_story.html?utm_term=.efd573571577
zoomster
Hey, I’m not ‘romanticising’ the small farmers, but rather the trees and fish and the birds that failed to breed. 🙂
Victoria
From my time door knocking I have concluded the most important federal issues is pot holes.
Civic education used to be a topic taught reintroducing it might be a good place to start.
frednk
Do we have any self-identified ‘working class’ left? They’re all aspirationals now…
@Frank_Davies
Yale psychiatrist Prof Bandy Lee’s panel of experts concluded that Trump is mentally unfit & a threat to the US & the world. This is now a “national and global emergency”. Prof Lee has been invited to present the Panel’s findings to Congress in July.
https://www.salon.com/2019/06/14/yale-psychiatrist-bandy-lee-trumps-mental-health-is-now-a-national-and-global-emergency/