The last two-party preferred count for the lower house is complete, leaving the Coalition with a national two-party preferred total of 51.53%, which is exactly the result that was projected by the opinion polls, albeit for the wrong party. The Australian Electoral Commission website continues to record that 288 declaration vote envelopes remain unprocessed, of which 234 are in the seat of Kingsford Smith, but I suspect that may just reflect tardiness in keeping these numbers updated.
We should also have the last Senate result finalised this morning, that being in Victoria, where a result of three Liberal, two Labor and one Greens is assured. Counts were finalised yesterday in Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia. To complement previous efforts for New South Wales and Tasmania, I offer the following displays showing how the preference distributions proceeded. In each case they record where the votes stood after the election of candidates with full quotas at the start of the count, and also in the final stages, where three seats were decided in Queensland, and two were decided in Western Australia and South Australia.
First up, Queensland, where the result was three for the Coalition (Paul Scarr, Susan McDonald and Gerard Rennick, all newcomers) and one apiece for Labor (Nita Green, also a newcomer), One Nation (Malcolm Roberts, returning after falling foul of Section 44 and having his seat pass to Fraser Anning, whose own party proved uncompetitive) and the Greens (Larissa Waters, another Section 44 casualty who had already returned to the Senate after her successor, Andrew Bartlett, agreed to make way for her ahead of the election). Queensland was the one state where the result was not clear long in advance, although in the final analysis it wasn’t really all that close. The Coalition won two seats straight off the bat and Labor one, leaving Green, Roberts, Waters and Labor’s second candidate, Chris Ketter, in the mix for the last three. There never seemed much doubt that the fourth seat would go to One Nation and the fifth to the Coalition, but Labor might have hoped the dual miracle of a strong performance in late counting and unexpectedly strong preference flows could have given Ketter the last seat at the expense of Waters. In fact though, Ketter trailed Waters by 52,767 votes (1.8%) at the start of proceedings, which widened to 78,681 (2.7%) by the end, with Waters doing predictably well out of preferences from Animal Justice and Help End Marijuana Prohibition – although she didn’t quite make it to a quota.
Now to Western Australia, which has returned three Liberals (incumbents Linda Reynolds and Slade Brockman, and newcomer Matt O’Sullivan), two Labor (incumbents Patrick Dodson and Louise Pratt) and one Greens (incumbent Jordon Steele-John). Reynolds, Brockman and Dodson were elected off the bat; O’Sullivan got most of the way there when the 1.4% Nationals vote was distributed; and Pratt and Steele-John were always going to get there late in the count ahead of One Nation incumbent Peter Georgiou.
South Australia produced the same result as Western Australia (and indeed New South Wales and Victoria, if the Coalition is considered collectively), the three Liberals being incumbents Anne Ruston and David Fawcett, and newcomer Alex Antic; Labor returning incumbent Alex Gallacher and newcomer Marielle Smith; and the Sarah Hanson-Young retaining her seat for the Greens. The top two on the Liberal and Labor tickets were elected off the bat; Hanson-Young made a quota after the third Labor candidate and the Help End Marijuana Prohibition candidate dropped out; and Antic stayed well clear of One Nation throughout to take the last seat.
The overall picture in the Senate was summarised here a few weeks ago – all that’s different now is that the “likely” qualification can be removed from Queensland.
Update: Victorian Senate result
The Victorian result was finalised this morning (Wednesday), producing the anticipated result of three seats for the Liberals (incumbents James Patterson and Jane Hume, and newcomer David Van), two for Labor (Raff Ciccone, who came to the Senate after filling a casual vacancy in March, and Jess Walsh, a newcomer) and one for the Greens (incumbent Janet Rice). The chart below follows the same format as those above, and shows that this was not a close run thing. The Coalition and Labor both had two quotas on ticket votes, leaving two seats to be determined through the preference distribution. Labor’s third candidate, incumbent Gavin Marshall, was never in contention, and his exclusion pushed the Greens to a quota with Van, Derryn Hinch and One Nation still in the count. One Nation then were excluded, leaving David Van well ahead of Hinch to take the final seat, without making it to a quota.
Poroti
You do know that Mascot Towers was built while the last Labor Government, was in power, don’t you?
that’s a nice story Zoomster. But late last year I showed you research that pointed to the vast increase in poverty, and particularly child poverty since Gillard brought forward single mothers going onto newstart and losing significant support. Your response was to approve of such measures and argue in a decidedly neo-liberal manner that removing such support might be good for single mothers in getting them into the workforce and off welfare. Considering single mothers and their children are more than often in a perilous position in Australia I doubt very much if you, or any of the politicians who supported the measures of Howard and Gillard give two shits about families in a ‘bad situation’.
There is also a suggestion that the next door construction is a likely cause.
What I don’t understand is why the owners do not have the type of household building insurance I hold as I am required to take as a mortgagor.
Oakeshott Country
When it comes to NSW government I tend to think of both major parties as wholly owned subsidiaries of ‘Sydney Developers Inc.
nath @ #1301 Saturday, June 22nd, 2019 – 6:06 pm
It was one of Gillards few mistakes to take onboard Swans advice to make the change.
Anyone with any rationality would acknowledge that.
It’s also a bit galling seeing Julia Gillard parade the world on the taxpayers dollar giving speeches about women and poverty when she ratcheted up poverty significantly re her decision on single mothers.
Not wrong there Poroti
poroti @ #1304 Saturday, June 22nd, 2019 – 6:08 pm
So, riddle me this, Batman. Why did Labor bring in laws to ban developer donations?
Rex Douglas @ #1308 Saturday, June 22nd, 2019 – 6:26 pm
And we had people here going, ‘Po’ John Setka, what has he ever done wrong?’ 😐
C@tmomma @ #1309 Saturday, June 22nd, 2019 – 6:27 pm
The barnacle had to be removed and it’s taken Albanese/McManus to finally do it.
An excellent article in the Conversation outlined the entrenching of an underclass:
In total there are around 360,000 families with children, Australia’s poorest, who are getting considerably less financial support.
It has happened as a result of actions by both sides of politics under prime ministers Howard, Rudd, Gillard, Abbott and Turnbull.
http://theconversation.com/its-not-just-newstart-single-parents-are-271-per-fortnight-worse-off-labor-needs-an-overarching-welfare-review-107521
As with the decision to link Newstart to the consumer price index rather than wages, the effects of their decisions will widen over time. The poorest families, and their children, will increasingly fall behind the rest of the population.
nath:
You’re ostensibly naive: rank has its privileges, particularly for a former prime minister.
nath
You’re either confusing me with someone else or we’re going back a lot further than late last year.
Snipped for legal reasons – The Management.
poroti @ #1298 Saturday, June 22nd, 2019 – 5:56 pm
Lesson for everyone – don’t by a new apartment, buy one that has at least a five year history with all defect repairs noted.
zoomster says:
Saturday, June 22, 2019 at 6:31 pm
nath
You’re either confusing me with someone else or we’re going back a lot further than late last year.
_____________
Maybe it was the middle of last year. But I recall it very well.
That is, of course, the issue nath cared so much about that he did precisely nothing about it….
I’m looking at you, psyclaw, and zoomster to a lesser extent.
TTFB
I think you mean Doug & Robert Mcclelland.
Diamond Jim Mcclelland was not part of the peerage but very much part of the meritocracy who made his name in the struggle to convert the Federated Ironworkers into a right wing union
zoomster says:
Saturday, June 22, 2019 at 6:32 pm
That is, of course, the issue nath cared so much about that he did precisely nothing about it….
____________________
I opposed it, which you cannot say. You endorsed it.
Not to mention The Greens being more than willing to take Setka’s union’s money when he decides to take it away from Labor.
No, it wasn’t, nath. I haven’t mounted any defences of that policy for several years, mainly because I’m still not sure about it! I don’t believe I have actually discussed it – other than to establish that you cared so much that you did precisely nothing – since 2010, when I was a candidate and it was my ‘job’.
nath
Sitting at home, saying ‘oooh, I don’t like that policy, isn’t that nasty’ and not even lifting a finger to phone an MP or write an email or a rude tweet or basically anything, is scarcely opposing something.
zoomster says:
Saturday, June 22, 2019 at 6:36 pm
No, it wasn’t, nath. I haven’t mounted any defences of that policy for several years, mainly because I’m still not sure about it! I don’t believe I have actually discussed it – other than to establish that you cared so much that you did precisely nothing – since 2010, when I was a candidate and it was my ‘job’.
_____________________
So you defended it once…and again last year. I will find your statements…..you know I will. If you admit you defended it last year I will let it stand.
C@tmomma @ #1321 Saturday, June 22nd, 2019 – 6:34 pm
That’s a blatant mistruth and misrepresentation. and should be retracted.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/greens-urged-to-refuse-tainted-cfmmeu-donations-from-john-setka-20190620-p51zni.html
zoomster says:
Saturday, June 22, 2019 at 6:37 pm
nath
Sitting at home, saying ‘oooh, I don’t like that policy, isn’t that nasty’ and not even lifting a finger to phone an MP or write an email or a rude tweet or basically anything, is scarcely opposing something.
_______________________
Oh there was a few phone calls made. But I thought a more constructive action might be to donate to a charity helping single mothers and their children find accommodation and food.
nath
As I said, I do not believe I defended it last year. A belief can be wrong, of course, but my only recollection is that we established you did NOTHING – other than not voting – on the issue you identified as the one you were most passionate about.
nath
‘Oh there was a few phone calls made..’
So why were you so remarkably coy about them – and your charitable actions – when I’ve asked you what you did in the past? Or have you only just remembered that you did these things?
zoomster says:
Saturday, June 22, 2019 at 6:40 pm
nath
As I said, I do not believe I defended it last year. A belief can be wrong, of course, but my only recollection is that we established you did NOTHING – other than not voting – on the issue you identified as the one you were most passionate about.
________________
Indeed I did stop voting ALP after Gillard did that. So I missed 2013 and 2016 out of disgust until finding the Greens more suitable to my ideas. Unfortunately I could not change the decision that had been made, alas. I would have loved to have formed a rebellion around it.
Full ep of today’s Real Time:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6NPYayoxdUg
zoomster says:
Saturday, June 22, 2019 at 6:41 pm
nath
‘Oh there was a few phone calls made..’
So why were you so remarkably coy about them – and your charitable actions – when I’ve asked you what you did in the past? Or have you only just remembered that you did these things?
_____________________
Well a few phone calls were the least I could do. And as for the donations, I don’t shout about my charitable donations from the rooftops, call me old fashioned, but I don’t. Although I have reluctantly under prosecution questioning.
The fact is that you were an ALP candidate who supported driving up poverty in Australia by the removal of grandfathering provisions in the SPP. Own that shit.
shellbell
No discussion in which forum? and by (or rather not by) whom?
briefly @ #1169 Saturday, June 22nd, 2019 – 10:51 am
‘quit now before he’s destroyed’ …??
I have no feeling that Albo will be destroyed, as you describe.
Out of interest, who do you suggest will destroy him ? Morrison ? …Fitzgibbon ?
Nath
One of the problems with political party partisans is that they can never fault their own or phrase the other side. There use to be a poster here (Frank) that typified the attitude, say something against his ALP was a capital offense but if the Liberals did the same thing, he would be all boots in on the head of the Lib minister for doing it.
After Black Saturday I was critical of Christine Nixon, and the partisan types couldn’t stand the comments because they took it as an attack on the ALP government which had nothing whosoever to do with what Christine did or didn’t do.
In any event, it’s good to see so many have returned to the fold following the election. I’d like, however, for Itza and others to resume posting, also GG – provocative, a shit-stirrer but nonetheless occasionally, interesting.
Mexicanbeemer says:
Saturday, June 22, 2019 at 6:53 pm
Nath
One of the problems with political party partisans is that they can never fault their own or phrase the other side. There use to be a poster here (Frank) that typified the attitude, say something against his ALP was a capital offense but if the Liberals did the same thing, he would be all boots in on the head of the Lib minister for doing it.
_______________________
It’s politics as football partisanship. My team always. Its low rent stuff and not being critical of your own side is a big reason social democracy has fallen away here.
Frednk:
Actually there are few columnists for the Australian, most notably Mr Durie in the business setction, who have the power to say what they think. That’s why the business section sometimes contradicts the climate nonsense in the main section, sometimes even (hilariously) on the same day and in relation to the same issue.
Mavis, your strange obsession with that disagreeable fanatic is starting to worry me.
Nath
Then they wonder why many people respond with the comment that all politicians are the same.
We don’t value caring work enough.
We don’t value environmental service work enough.
We don’t value artistic and cultural service work enough.
Instead of forcing parents onto Newstart, we should offer parents the opportunity to be paid for their extremely valuable caring work.
I would lift the minimum wage from $19.49 per hour to $25 per hour. That is where the minimum wage would be if it had kept pace with average labour productivity growth since 1970.
Then I would ensure that anyone who wanted to care for their child or for an elderly relative or for a relative with a disability could be paid for that work if they wanted to be paid. I would allow them to choose how many hours they wanted to dedicate to the work – up to 35 hours per week. And they would be paid $25 per hour. Someone who chose to work full time would be paid $25 x 35 = $875
They would have access to mentors and supervisors who could help them with problems and help them develop new skills. They would have access to a network of fellow carers who could share insights and experiences and a sympathetic ear.
I have from my experience from speaking to a considerable number of people, Scomo is respected not well liked. However Anthony Albanese is liked by a lot of people, because he is seen as authentic. He is the kind of person who is genuinely respected by people such as Bob Katter, which is to say something. So I believe he is the sort of political leader who can unite this country.
Nicholas says:
Saturday, June 22, 2019 at 7:06 pm
We don’t value caring work enough.
We don’t value environmental service work enough.
We don’t value artistic and cultural service work enough.
————————
Part of the reason why they pay less is due to the large number of people in those lines of work, also they are in fairly rigid EBA sets ups that don’t provide much in the way of performance based pay. Also in caring related work which I am assuming you include nurses, as their pay rates are higher than child care or home help but nurses do require a higher level of expertise than some other roles that would be consider caring roles. The other factor that impacts wages is the ability of the person paying the wage to pay it.
Thank you, ‘fess for Real Time. 🙂
Rex Douglas @ #1326 Saturday, June 22nd, 2019 – 6:39 pm
Well, I hope they don’t. The ball is in their court now. Unless, of course, Setka’s union is deregistered first.
C@t
As it is NSW I would guess that they had already put in place a scheme that got around such laws 😀
nath:
[‘Mavis, your strange obsession with that disagreeable fanatic is starting to worry me.’]
GG has been here from day dot – 2004. Please respect those who’ve come before you on this blog.
“zoomster says:
Saturday, June 22, 2019 at 6:37 pm
nath
Sitting at home, saying ‘oooh, I don’t like that policy, isn’t that nasty’ and not even lifting a finger to phone an MP or write an email or a rude tweet or basically anything, is scarcely opposing something.”
That’s a bit of an unfair expectation zoom. nath can’t actually get out and do anything as that may mean having a shower, changing his crusty undies and actually getting out in the world rather than just sitting on the net being a dick and trolling people. Sad, but such is the way of the world.
C@t
“I’m looking at you Psyclaw”
Pray darls, what are you on about. Was it to do with the post Mr Bowe snipped.
Surely it is not poor me you are defaming. Surely I too cannot be a victim. You are the only real victim here aren’t you.
I know you will be only too happy to illucidate.
Cheers luvvie