The last two-party preferred count for the lower house is complete, leaving the Coalition with a national two-party preferred total of 51.53%, which is exactly the result that was projected by the opinion polls, albeit for the wrong party. The Australian Electoral Commission website continues to record that 288 declaration vote envelopes remain unprocessed, of which 234 are in the seat of Kingsford Smith, but I suspect that may just reflect tardiness in keeping these numbers updated.
We should also have the last Senate result finalised this morning, that being in Victoria, where a result of three Liberal, two Labor and one Greens is assured. Counts were finalised yesterday in Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia. To complement previous efforts for New South Wales and Tasmania, I offer the following displays showing how the preference distributions proceeded. In each case they record where the votes stood after the election of candidates with full quotas at the start of the count, and also in the final stages, where three seats were decided in Queensland, and two were decided in Western Australia and South Australia.
First up, Queensland, where the result was three for the Coalition (Paul Scarr, Susan McDonald and Gerard Rennick, all newcomers) and one apiece for Labor (Nita Green, also a newcomer), One Nation (Malcolm Roberts, returning after falling foul of Section 44 and having his seat pass to Fraser Anning, whose own party proved uncompetitive) and the Greens (Larissa Waters, another Section 44 casualty who had already returned to the Senate after her successor, Andrew Bartlett, agreed to make way for her ahead of the election). Queensland was the one state where the result was not clear long in advance, although in the final analysis it wasn’t really all that close. The Coalition won two seats straight off the bat and Labor one, leaving Green, Roberts, Waters and Labor’s second candidate, Chris Ketter, in the mix for the last three. There never seemed much doubt that the fourth seat would go to One Nation and the fifth to the Coalition, but Labor might have hoped the dual miracle of a strong performance in late counting and unexpectedly strong preference flows could have given Ketter the last seat at the expense of Waters. In fact though, Ketter trailed Waters by 52,767 votes (1.8%) at the start of proceedings, which widened to 78,681 (2.7%) by the end, with Waters doing predictably well out of preferences from Animal Justice and Help End Marijuana Prohibition – although she didn’t quite make it to a quota.
Now to Western Australia, which has returned three Liberals (incumbents Linda Reynolds and Slade Brockman, and newcomer Matt O’Sullivan), two Labor (incumbents Patrick Dodson and Louise Pratt) and one Greens (incumbent Jordon Steele-John). Reynolds, Brockman and Dodson were elected off the bat; O’Sullivan got most of the way there when the 1.4% Nationals vote was distributed; and Pratt and Steele-John were always going to get there late in the count ahead of One Nation incumbent Peter Georgiou.
South Australia produced the same result as Western Australia (and indeed New South Wales and Victoria, if the Coalition is considered collectively), the three Liberals being incumbents Anne Ruston and David Fawcett, and newcomer Alex Antic; Labor returning incumbent Alex Gallacher and newcomer Marielle Smith; and the Sarah Hanson-Young retaining her seat for the Greens. The top two on the Liberal and Labor tickets were elected off the bat; Hanson-Young made a quota after the third Labor candidate and the Help End Marijuana Prohibition candidate dropped out; and Antic stayed well clear of One Nation throughout to take the last seat.
The overall picture in the Senate was summarised here a few weeks ago – all that’s different now is that the “likely” qualification can be removed from Queensland.
Update: Victorian Senate result
The Victorian result was finalised this morning (Wednesday), producing the anticipated result of three seats for the Liberals (incumbents James Patterson and Jane Hume, and newcomer David Van), two for Labor (Raff Ciccone, who came to the Senate after filling a casual vacancy in March, and Jess Walsh, a newcomer) and one for the Greens (incumbent Janet Rice). The chart below follows the same format as those above, and shows that this was not a close run thing. The Coalition and Labor both had two quotas on ticket votes, leaving two seats to be determined through the preference distribution. Labor’s third candidate, incumbent Gavin Marshall, was never in contention, and his exclusion pushed the Greens to a quota with Van, Derryn Hinch and One Nation still in the count. One Nation then were excluded, leaving David Van well ahead of Hinch to take the final seat, without making it to a quota.
If the Morrison Government had any moral authority, Dutton would not be in the ministry, his latest missive re. the Medevac legislation evidencing he’s the grubbiest of grubs. I do hope the Senate cross-bench will show some spine when the amendments are presented.
nepotism in all political parties is one of the most potent factors feeding the publics’ distaste in politics. Using taxpayers money to create families of multi millionaires is rancid for trust in the political process.
Although I’m not defending nepotism per se, it’s a common thing for families to work in the same profession, because they have a practical understanding of what it involves and (of course) useful connections. Most of my family are teachers, for example.
If you grow up in a political family, you’re going to be more interested in politics than ‘normal’ people, and you’re going to have a better understanding of what it involves.
My sons, for example, understand the ‘public services’ aspect of politics, and when they’re thinking (as they do) of ‘giving back to society’ see politics as a natural way of doing that.
People who grow up thinking negatively about politics and politicians are less likely to do that.
‘giving back to society’
_______________________
There are many ways to ‘give back to society’ other than take well paying sinecures. Kim Beazley could have ‘given back’ after leaving politics. He could have started a men’s shed, or whatever. He wanted to be ambassador to the US and GG. I suppose he’s settled for Governor of W.A.
I think most people see ‘giving back to society’ as something you do without feathering your nest and your family nest.
Of course, zoomster, in your case it probably was a service to the ALP, considering you were not getting paid and were harvesting votes for them.
I never had a lot of time for Costello but his line about the Labor hereditary peers was devastating – because it was true.
I actually think Federal Labor is less hereditary at the moment.
lizzie @ #1242 Saturday, June 22nd, 2019 – 3:13 pm
I bet he goes to church on Sunday. 😐
C@tmomma says:
Saturday, June 22, 2019 at 3:57 pm
lizzie @ #1242 Saturday, June 22nd, 2019 – 3:13 pm
C@t
Dutton thinks everyone has the same twisted moral attitudes as himself. He simply cannot understand charity, mercy or selfless service.
I bet he goes to church on Sunday.
______________________________
Any you? Sunday afternoon on the pokies at the local RSL your speed?
Bob Hawke’s ‘hereditary peer’ was???
Kevin Rudd’s ‘hereditary peer’ was???
Penny Wong’s ‘hereditary peer’ was???
Anthony Albanes’s ‘hereditary peer’ was???
Mark Butler’s ‘hereditary peer’ was…oh, that’s right, a former South Australian Liberal Premier. 😐
C@tmomma
says:
Saturday, June 22, 2019 at 3:59 pm
Bob Hawke’s ‘hereditary peer’ was???
_______________________
well….not a hereditary peer but his father was General Secretary of the Australian Labor Party in South Australia 1919–20.
Lars Von Trier @ #1257 Saturday, June 22nd, 2019 – 3:59 pm
Only an idiot would say something like that.
Oh, that’s right, it IS an idiot.
nath says:
Saturday, June 22, 2019 at 4:01 pm
C@tmomma
says:
Saturday, June 22, 2019 at 3:59 pm
Bob Hawke’s ‘hereditary peer’ was???
_______________________
well….not a hereditary peer but his father was General Secretary of the Australian Labor Party in South Australia 1919–20.
_______________________
and his uncle was premier of western australia
Nicholas @ 1:16 pm
The problem with a special senate election is the following:
In the normal election:
Party A gets 40% of the vote.
Party B gets 30% of the vote.
Party C gets 10% of the vote.
Other parties gets the remainder.
If a senator from B or C leaves Parliament. Party A will end up getting an extra seat.
And as for gifting a seat to an unsuitable person. Who ever gets the top of Party A’s ticket will end up getting the seat anyway
Kitching ran for preselection in Gellibrand when it was vacated by Nicola Roxon in 2013. The notion that Penny Wong would not take a safe lower house seat if one became available is obviously nonsense.
Some mothers do ave em.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/21/police-called-to-loud-altercation-at-boris-johnsons-home
Albanese’s estranged wife was deputy premier of NSW
Oakeshott Country
says:
Saturday, June 22, 2019 at 4:10 pm
Albanese’s estranged wife was deputy premier of NSW
____________________
Do partners count as nepotism, I suppose in some cases it could.
Of course Shorten’s support of Kitching for the Senate spot, his best friend’s partner, was a recent and notable case of nepotism.
Lars Von Trier @ #1261 Saturday, June 22nd, 2019 – 4:03 pm
*golf clap*
Julia Gillard’s ‘hereditary peer’ was???
lizzie @ #1269 Saturday, June 22nd, 2019 – 4:19 pm
I guess this government counts that as a win. Less Newstart to pay. 😐
One of the more interesting aspects of the leadership group that used to run the NSW ALP was the number of power couples. This may or may not be nepotism – after all people with similar interests may hook up but it could give the impression of a closed elite. Some examples off the top of my head as well as Albanese/Tebbutt
John dela Bosca/ Belinda Nehl
Reba Meagher/ Joe Tripodi
Cherie Burton/Mark Arbib
Kristina Keneally/Ben Keneally. The story was that Ben had the nod to take Heffron from Grusovin but it was estimated that he would lose pre selection due to female loading
This may or may not be nepotism – after all people with similar interests may hook up but it could give the impression of a closed elite.
_____________________
It all depends when the relationship started and did one partner use his/her influence in getting the other into positions. Certainly it is possible for two people in politics to get together without any nepotism involved.
Oakeshott Country @ #1272 Saturday, June 22nd, 2019 – 4:30 pm
And how many of them met at Young Labor or the Uni Labor Club? I’d say most.
Except for KK and BK, who met at World Catholic Youth Day and through Ben Keneally’s links via Thomas Keneally and the rest of his family that gave KK entre to the ALP.
Where is the evidence that 2000 people have suicided due to robodebt letters. Such an appalling situation must have come to the attention of the Coroner – but I have seen no report
Indeed, they are people with common interests but their liaisons make it difficult to know what was achieved through merit and what through family connection
OC
Some old or sick people may just have given up and died, or had heart attacks from stress. I’m not sure that suicide is quite correct.
Surely this would still have come to the attention of the Coroner. It usually only takes 2- 3 “Cluster” deaths for an enquiry to be initiated – 2000 deaths would be among the most major catastrophies in australian history
I met Reba Meagher in Noosa in 2016. Very nice.
Now head of a Catholic charity, I think.
Never suited to politics.
Kristina Keneally had to fight ALP royalty in Grusovin/Brereton
The report showed 2030 who had received robo letters died but there was no information as to the cause of their deaths. I doubt all 2030 people suicided.
Shellbell @ #1280 Saturday, June 22nd, 2019 – 5:04 pm
I know. My old aunties were Life Members of the ALP and had always been in the Matraville Branch.
The Hunter was always an area where sons tended to inherit seats or where familes shared the politicl spoils. Less so in recent years. A quick list off the top of my head
George & Ken Booth
Charlie & Sam Jones
Rowley & Bert James
Peter, Alan & Matthew Morris
Merv & Jeff Hunter
Stan & George Neilly
Bob Brown & Kelly Hoare
And:
Eric & Joel Fitzgibbon
What was the average age of people who received Robodebt letters? I remember the suicide of one person in Britain who was told she would have to down-size from a 3 bedroom council house led to a major media outcry – I would expect the same in australia if there was definite evidence of administration related deaths
Oakeshott google Robo Letters and read the Guardian report. There is a fair amount of info in the article. The 2000 suicides is classic false news.
I forgot the worst case of the incompetent inheriting from the incompetent in the Hunter:
Dai and Davey Watkins who held Newcastle from Federation till 1958
While Brereton/Grusovin were Labor royalty; Tripodi had kissed Grusovin on the lips and that was that.
Ronni Salt
@MsVeruca
From the time Angus Taylor entered parliament in September 2013, companies & organisations the Taylor family have managed, directed or are directly associated with have benefited from over $93,515,673 in federal & state government funds.
And yes – you read that correctly.
Let’s look at Monaro Farming Systems for example, situated in rural – & very, very grassy – sth east NSW.
With Richard Taylor as the chairman, this group luckily received a $563,728 Landcare grant during the period b/w Joyce & Littleproud changing over the agriculture ministry.
Fascinatingly, this huge Landcare grant for weather monitoring & pasture improvement was awarded while Richard Taylor & several others were still under investigation for illegal land clearing, which is interesting criteria for a federal Landcare grant.
But who are we to judge?
Monaro Farming Systems states it is a non-profit group that boasts having received over $600,000 in grants & sponsorship, yet according to its website, it has 41 financial members.
It also employs an admin person who luckily, happens to work for the Taylor’s Growth Farms.
It’s heartening to know that such a small, isolated farm group that receives so many government funds for its research projects can then, well . . .
. . . roll all that knowledge over into Growth Farm’s $400 million management of farm properties for a billionaire.
Not to be outdone, Angus Taylor’s brother & Bronnie Taylor’s husband, Duncan, has been hard at work in the education sector.
Duncan Taylor heads up an organisation known as Country University Centres & in a time of TAFE cuts & closures, CUC has gone from strength to strength:
Michael McCormack
@M_McCormackMP
Duncan Taylor of Cooma says upgrade of #snowyhydro “exciting” for regions and nation at @NSWNationals #NatConSouth17
Duncan’s wife Bronnie Taylor, a Nationals MP in the NSW parliament, was once NSW parliamentary secretary to John Barilaro.
Barilaro also coincidentally helped Monaro Farming Systems with some of their successful grants.
The Taylors are very lucky like that.
Duncan Taylor had even more good fortune when CUC was registered as an umbrella group for rural education back in Feb 2017, the same time as his wife Bronnie became Barilaro’s parliamentary secretary.
Three months later, the CUC was the lucky recipient of an $8 million grant.
Not to be outdone, the fed govt awarded CUC a $5.1 million grant, although the grant is difficult to find as it was announced as part of a fund package in Nov 2108.
To date, the Duncan Taylor led CUC is one of the only NSW rural facilities to obtain funding from this fund pool.
Media releases show a grant pool of $7.5 million for 16 regional study hubs, making it clear that the Country University Centres luckily managed to grasp the lion’s share of the funds, with the majority of the other rural groups left to share in the remaining $2.4 million.
That same week, an excited Angus Taylor spruiked the federal grant to Goulburn’s CUC.
Unfortunately he forgot to mention his wife Louise Clegg sat on the Board of Directors & that his brother Duncan Taylor was the umbrella organisation’s CEO, which received the full $5,100,000
Angus Taylor of course helped steer his own companies toward accessing government funds prior to entering parliament.
In 2013, while still listed as a director of the Cayman’s Eastern Aust Irrigation, Eastern Aust Agriculture sold water licences to the fed govt for $4.3 million
Yes, before the infamous $80 million #watergate buybacks were ever thought of, Angus Taylor’s old company Eastern Australia Agriculture managed to accumulate $5,762,165 of taxpayer funded grants & sales.
For Eastern Australia Agriculture, the luck just never stopped.
It could be hard for some to understand that after sitting as a director on a cumulative total of 17 companies over 2 decades, Angus Taylor would leave behind his multi-million dollar earning capacity in the corporate world for the life of a humble politician.
But then again – the rewards of helping people must help balance out all that sacrifice.
Addendum:
This thread is in no way intended to infer any of the Taylor family have acted in any way inappropriately.
Quite the contrary – it is a tribute to their amazing work ethic and capacity to garner good fortune.
Just lucky I guess. And hard working. 🙂
Davidwh @ #1285 Saturday, June 22nd, 2019 – 5:21 pm
Also have a look at this one – not the best article but giving some information
https://www.abc.net.au/triplej/programs/hack/2030-people-have-died-after-receiving-centrelink-robodebt-notice/10821272
Just dug a bit deeper and Senate Estimates finally received information indicating that 5 people suicided as a result of receiving the letters. One suicide is one too many but false news saying 2000 suicides just clouds the issue.
Fascinating analysis of federal election polling by Simon Jackman and Luke Mansillo, once you get past the technical detail on the first few slides. It includes trend measures that combine election results with polling to ascertain where the true underlying situation likely was through the term, and records what looks like an outbreak of herding immediately before the election, particularly on the Coalition primary vote.
http://rpubs.com/simonjackman/assa_cbr_june2019
Hi DavidWH
Do you have a link to the estimates evidence?
So long as we never know how, according to the experts: “survey houses
weighting etc, …., typically after data collection, before publishing results”
proper conclusions cannot be concluded.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/06/19/senate-entrails-examined/comment-page-26/#comment-3208079
Kim Beazley, Simon Crean, Jim McClelland and Lance Barnard were all second generation ALP MPs/ ministers.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Beazley_Sr.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Crean
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doug_McClelland
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Claude_Barnard
Harry Jenkins was a second generation ALP MP/Speaker.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Jenkins_Sr.
Joel Fitzgibbon is and Burt James was a second generation ALP MP for Hunter.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eric_Fitzgibbon
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rowley_James
Oakeshott I don’t know how to cut and paste on this iPhone but it was on the second page of the Google search in an article in The Saturday Paper.
OC
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/22/robodebt-scheme-costs-government-almost-as-much-as-it-recovers
The suicide rate for unemployed males is five times that of employed males so the rate is already very high but I could imagine the robodebt could make it worse.
At the time I felt an indication of the malaise in the Labor Party was when generational change in the leadership was seen as the son of one Whitlam minister handing over to the son of another Whitlam minister
The Coalition crooks have the answer. Less red tape, less green tape, less regulation and self regulation. So reaping of what was sown looks on the horizin.
https://outline.com/rcA4eb
nath
Politics – done properly – transforms lives.
If I know of a family in a bad situation, I can buy them a box of groceries. But there are probably several other families in exactly the same situation in my community that I don’t know about and therefore aren’t helping. And the box of groceries might be the ‘ambulance at the bottom of the cliff’ rather than a practical solution.
If I identify the issues which led to that family being in that position, and put policies in place to stop families falling off that particular cliff in future, I have potentially stopped families ever being put in that position again.
Which is why we should judge politicians by the policies they advocate for and implement, rather by whether or not they get paid lots of money.