More Senate entrails examined

The lower house count concludes with the Coalition on 51.53% of the national two-party preferred; the button is pressed on the Senate for Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia; only the Victorian Senate result remains.

The last two-party preferred count for the lower house is complete, leaving the Coalition with a national two-party preferred total of 51.53%, which is exactly the result that was projected by the opinion polls, albeit for the wrong party. The Australian Electoral Commission website continues to record that 288 declaration vote envelopes remain unprocessed, of which 234 are in the seat of Kingsford Smith, but I suspect that may just reflect tardiness in keeping these numbers updated.

We should also have the last Senate result finalised this morning, that being in Victoria, where a result of three Liberal, two Labor and one Greens is assured. Counts were finalised yesterday in Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia. To complement previous efforts for New South Wales and Tasmania, I offer the following displays showing how the preference distributions proceeded. In each case they record where the votes stood after the election of candidates with full quotas at the start of the count, and also in the final stages, where three seats were decided in Queensland, and two were decided in Western Australia and South Australia.

First up, Queensland, where the result was three for the Coalition (Paul Scarr, Susan McDonald and Gerard Rennick, all newcomers) and one apiece for Labor (Nita Green, also a newcomer), One Nation (Malcolm Roberts, returning after falling foul of Section 44 and having his seat pass to Fraser Anning, whose own party proved uncompetitive) and the Greens (Larissa Waters, another Section 44 casualty who had already returned to the Senate after her successor, Andrew Bartlett, agreed to make way for her ahead of the election). Queensland was the one state where the result was not clear long in advance, although in the final analysis it wasn’t really all that close. The Coalition won two seats straight off the bat and Labor one, leaving Green, Roberts, Waters and Labor’s second candidate, Chris Ketter, in the mix for the last three. There never seemed much doubt that the fourth seat would go to One Nation and the fifth to the Coalition, but Labor might have hoped the dual miracle of a strong performance in late counting and unexpectedly strong preference flows could have given Ketter the last seat at the expense of Waters. In fact though, Ketter trailed Waters by 52,767 votes (1.8%) at the start of proceedings, which widened to 78,681 (2.7%) by the end, with Waters doing predictably well out of preferences from Animal Justice and Help End Marijuana Prohibition – although she didn’t quite make it to a quota.

Now to Western Australia, which has returned three Liberals (incumbents Linda Reynolds and Slade Brockman, and newcomer Matt O’Sullivan), two Labor (incumbents Patrick Dodson and Louise Pratt) and one Greens (incumbent Jordon Steele-John). Reynolds, Brockman and Dodson were elected off the bat; O’Sullivan got most of the way there when the 1.4% Nationals vote was distributed; and Pratt and Steele-John were always going to get there late in the count ahead of One Nation incumbent Peter Georgiou.

South Australia produced the same result as Western Australia (and indeed New South Wales and Victoria, if the Coalition is considered collectively), the three Liberals being incumbents Anne Ruston and David Fawcett, and newcomer Alex Antic; Labor returning incumbent Alex Gallacher and newcomer Marielle Smith; and the Sarah Hanson-Young retaining her seat for the Greens. The top two on the Liberal and Labor tickets were elected off the bat; Hanson-Young made a quota after the third Labor candidate and the Help End Marijuana Prohibition candidate dropped out; and Antic stayed well clear of One Nation throughout to take the last seat.

The overall picture in the Senate was summarised here a few weeks ago – all that’s different now is that the “likely” qualification can be removed from Queensland.

Update: Victorian Senate result

The Victorian result was finalised this morning (Wednesday), producing the anticipated result of three seats for the Liberals (incumbents James Patterson and Jane Hume, and newcomer David Van), two for Labor (Raff Ciccone, who came to the Senate after filling a casual vacancy in March, and Jess Walsh, a newcomer) and one for the Greens (incumbent Janet Rice). The chart below follows the same format as those above, and shows that this was not a close run thing. The Coalition and Labor both had two quotas on ticket votes, leaving two seats to be determined through the preference distribution. Labor’s third candidate, incumbent Gavin Marshall, was never in contention, and his exclusion pushed the Greens to a quota with Van, Derryn Hinch and One Nation still in the count. One Nation then were excluded, leaving David Van well ahead of Hinch to take the final seat, without making it to a quota.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,392 comments on “More Senate entrails examined”

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  1. Victoria:

    I think she’s definitely having the last laugh though. She thoroughly deserves her post parliamentary success.

  4. And I’m still waiting for Dutton and co to make a strongly worded statement about the two young brothers who bashed an assistant commissioner of police here in Victoria.
    I guess I shouldn’t hold my breath…..

    The perpetrators were Caucasian.

  6. Victoria @ #54 Wednesday, June 19th, 2019 – 8:37 am

    And I’m still waiting for Dutton and co to make a strongly worded statement about the two young brothers who bashed an assistant commissioner of police here in Victoria.
    I guess I shouldn’t hold my breath…..

    The perpetrators were Caucasian.

    I’m still waiting for Peter Dutton to warn us about going out to dinner because there are 2 Rwandan Axe Murderers on the loose! Oh wait, it was Peter Dutton who let them loose. 😐

  7. 😮

    The Evangelical, the ‘Pool Boy,’ the Comedian and Michael Cohen.

    Jerry Falwell Jr. defied expectations when he supported Donald J. Trump in 2016. Now details are emerging about behind-the-scenes maneuvering before the endorsement.

    …

    That backstory, in true Trump-tabloid fashion, features the friendship between Mr. Falwell, his wife and a former pool attendant at the Fontainebleau hotel in Miami Beach; the family’s investment in a gay-friendly youth hostel; purported sexually revealing photographs involving the Falwells; and an attempted hush-money arrangement engineered by the president’s former fixer, Michael Cohen.

    The revelations have arisen from a lawsuit filed against the Falwells in Florida; the investigation into Mr. Cohen by federal prosecutors in New York; and the gonzo-style tactics of the comedian and actor Tom Arnold.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/18/us/trump-falwell-endorsement-michael-cohen.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

  8. Thank you, BK.

    That article on ‘the permafrost’ ‘melting 70 years before predicted’ is a classic in poor science reporting:

    1. The permafrost is circumpolar and has a variable but sometimes large latitudinal range. Is it ALL melting?
    2. just who predicted that ‘the permafrost’ would melt in 70 years? And when was that prediction made? And with what qualifications?
    3. Some of the permafrost has been melting for decades. There is evidence that the rate of permafrost melt is increasing. What has changed to make this sort of doom-laden article suddenly newsworthy?

  9. zoomster @ #46 Wednesday, June 19th, 2019 – 8:28 am

    C@

    Which is why old has beens like ourselves should toy with these issues.

    We should. However, the push back from the employers was fierce the last time it became a subject of discussion. Pregnant women were being told not to come back to their jobs and female interviewees were asked if they were likely to become pregnant if they took the job. It had a horrible chilling effect on women, to the extent that they just go with the Child Care as soon as possible as that seems to be the best they can get.

  10. Has the MSM been muzzled on reporting on what appears to have been a confrontation between the police and a couple of white supremacists?

  11. Thanks BK, a somewhat confusing round of cartoons this morning. I’m not getting the NZ kiwi ones.
    _____
    Confessions
    Earlier in the Dawn Patrol I referenced an article that explained how NZ has introduced the concept of considering wellbeing in the development of its budgets.

  12. Confessions @ #57 Wednesday, June 19th, 2019 – 8:42 am

    😮

    The Evangelical, the ‘Pool Boy,’ the Comedian and Michael Cohen.

    Jerry Falwell Jr. defied expectations when he supported Donald J. Trump in 2016. Now details are emerging about behind-the-scenes maneuvering before the endorsement.

    …

    That backstory, in true Trump-tabloid fashion, features the friendship between Mr. Falwell, his wife and a former pool attendant at the Fontainebleau hotel in Miami Beach; the family’s investment in a gay-friendly youth hostel; purported sexually revealing photographs involving the Falwells; and an attempted hush-money arrangement engineered by the president’s former fixer, Michael Cohen.

    The revelations have arisen from a lawsuit filed against the Falwells in Florida; the investigation into Mr. Cohen by federal prosecutors in New York; and the gonzo-style tactics of the comedian and actor Tom Arnold.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/18/us/trump-falwell-endorsement-michael-cohen.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

    Donald Trump, in true Mob Boss fashion, is the keeper of the key to the closet that all the skeletons are kept in.

  13. Confessions

    Kiwi cartoons refer to Gittins’ article.

    Those Kiwis. They’ve gone one up and brought happiness to the budget

    ……….Finance Minister Grant Robertson, in his budget speech, New Zealanders were asking “if we have declared success because we have a relatively high rate of GDP growth, why are the things that we value going backwards – like child wellbeing, a warm, dry home for all, mental health services or rivers and lakes we can swim in?………………………..According to the Liberal winners, voters in outer suburbs and the regions turned away from Labor because it would have dashed their “aspirations” to one day be earning two or three times what they’re earning today and so be raking it in from family trusts, negatively geared investments and, above all, refunds of unused franking credits…………But if our aspirations to happiness revolve around more money in general and less tax in particular,

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/oceania/those-kiwis-they-ve-gone-one-up-and-brought-happiness-to-the-budget-20190618-p51ytb.html

  14. C@t & zoomster

    But there is another aspect of so-called equality that is really bothering me. Women are putting off having children to an age where successful pregnancy requires medical intervention of various kinds and can cost thousands. I suppose that all adds to GNP? Shudder.

  15. It’s difficult the gauge the reasons why so many former regulars aren’t posting. There’s a core group contributing comprising some six, but numbers have dropped off quite dramatically. I’m sure, however, they’ll return – the sooner the better. I could be well off the track, but women seem to deal with defeat better than men, no sexist connotation implied.

  20. C@

    ‘Pregnant women were being told not to come back to their jobs and female interviewees were asked if they were likely to become pregnant if they took the job. ‘

    Practices which were made illegal over 30 years ago.

    I had a similar threat made when I was pregnant. I took it to the Department and the guy who made it had his career stall (permanently).

    An employer who makes that kind of threat is playing with fire.

  21. pR

    The Commander-in-Chief has John, Ivanka and Jared to help him fix Iran on behalf of Bibi and Salman.
    The CiC is generally held to be insane.
    John never saw a war he didn’t like and hates Iran with a passion.
    Ivanka and Jared are minting it by the hundreds of million dollars.
    Bibi is under a serious corruption cloud – so serious that it stopped him forming a coalition government after the last Israeli election and forced an election re-run. Mrs Bibi is in the toils of plea bargaining for her clouds.
    Salman is under a murder cloud.

    The cool and sane heads have all been evicted from the Trump Administration. The combined utterances of Pompeo and Trump on the Straits of Hormuz border on the diplomatic bizarre: comical Donald stuff.

    ‘You saw the boat.’

    Possibly the only restraining influence ATM is Centcom because it is Centcom troops who will die for the usual SFA ME outcome. And the US armed forces are sick of being dicked around by the civil.

  22. Boerwar

    And so comforting to know there are two hard core ‘bring on the End Times’ nutters like Pompeo+Pence in the heart of the White House ?

  25. lizzie @ #64 Wednesday, June 19th, 2019 – 8:48 am

    C@t & zoomster

    But there is another aspect of so-called equality that is really bothering me. Women are putting off having children to an age where successful pregnancy requires medical intervention of various kinds and can cost thousands. I suppose that all adds to GNP? Shudder.

    And Scott Morrison has announced a policy to subsidise it. Because. Wife.

  27. Mavis Smith @ #65 Wednesday, June 19th, 2019 – 8:48 am

    It’s difficult the gauge the reasons why so many former regulars aren’t posting. There’s a core group contributing comprising some six, but numbers have dropped off quite dramatically. I’m sure, however, they’ll return – the sooner the better. I could be well off the track, but women seem to deal with defeat better than men, no sexist connotation implied.

    I miss rhwombat and ratsak.

  28. Victoria @ #76 Wednesday, June 19th, 2019 – 9:13 am

    C@t

    Good one! Imagine if team labor had set two Rwandan axe murders loose?

    The Murdoch tabloids and the Coalition would have lost their heads! They would be on 24/7 rant and rave mode and the newspapers would be spewing out reams and reams of stories by journalists absolutely horrified at Labor’s recklessness!

    When the Coalition do it?

    *crickets*

  30. Mavis

    The atmosphere of PB has definitely changed over the last 12 months. At first I welcomed new faces, but some of them now dominate, to the blog’s detriment. Thank heaven for BK’s steadiness.

  31. zoomster @ #70 Wednesday, June 19th, 2019 – 8:53 am

    C@

    ‘Pregnant women were being told not to come back to their jobs and female interviewees were asked if they were likely to become pregnant if they took the job. ‘

    Practices which were made illegal over 30 years ago.

    I had a similar threat made when I was pregnant. I took it to the Department and the guy who made it had his career stall (permanently).

    An employer who makes that kind of threat is playing with fire.

    Yes, but you were employed in the Education Department at a time when there were still standards by which people set a light to follow. And it was the Public Service.

    These days, a private employer can just find some other reason to not give a young woman the job.

  33. lizzie
    says:
    Wednesday, June 19, 2019 at 9:18 am
    Mavis
    The atmosphere of PB has definitely changed over the last 12 months. At first I welcomed new faces, but some of them now dominate, to the blog’s detriment. Thank heaven for BK’s steadiness.
    _______________________
    Yes. the newcomers are decidedly nouveau riche and quite appalling really.

  34. ‘poroti says:
    Wednesday, June 19, 2019 at 9:00 am

    Boerwar

    And so comforting to know there are two hard core ‘bring on the End Times’ nutters like Pompeo+Pence in the heart of the White House ?’

    Someone’s got to do the hard yards for Jesus.

  35. At first I welcomed new faces, but some of them now dominate, to the blog’s detriment.

    William’s daily comment limit will mitigate that, if he can ever get it off the ground.

  36. At first I welcomed new faces, but some of them now dominate, to the blog’s detriment
    _____________________________
    I can recall my uncle saying the same thing about the Greeks and Italians.

  38. She’ll bell,

    Thank you for the reference a little while ago to the international children’s choral concert at the Opera House on 21 July. Have followed up on it.

  39. IMO the most likely reason for the lack of public guts being shown by the Morrison Government on Hong Kong democracy is because it is not a government strong on democracy in Australia, let alone Hong Kong.
    The main reason, however, is that since Pyne’s provocative speech in Singapore (matched by a provocative speech by Wei) but mostly since the banning of Huawei, Australian coal exports to China are being monstered by the Chinese.

    How ouchment for the Coalition’s puppetmeisters!

  43. ‘The Australian’, which managed to ignore the Coalition’s $600 billion debt during the election has suddenly noticed the states’ $180 billion debt after the election. First article on page 1.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=TAWEB_WRE170_a&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theaustralian.com.au%2Fnation%2Fpolitics%2Fstates-climb-180bn-debt-mountain%2Fnews-story%2F5996a36c4cee29b62df68fb7b1c839bb&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium&v21suffix=49-a

  45. Boerwar @ #89 Wednesday, June 19th, 2019 – 9:32 am

    IMO the most likely reason for the lack of public guts being shown by the Morrison Government on Hong Kong democracy is because it is not a government strong on democracy in Australia, let alone Hong Kong.
    The main reason, however, is that since Pyne’s provocative speech in Singapore (matched by a provocative speech by Wei) but mostly since the banning of Huawei, Australian coal exports to China are being monstered by the Chinese.

    How ouchment for the Coalition’s puppetmeisters!

    “In Cherman oder English, I’ve learned to count down,
    Und I’m learning Chinese, said Wernher von Braun.”…

  46. Confessions @ #49 Wednesday, June 19th, 2019 – 8:31 am

    Thanks BK, a somewhat confusing round of cartoons this morning. I’m not getting the NZ kiwi ones.

    People seem to be realizing that NZ is actually the type country that Australia thinks it is. I know of several people planning to move there permanently, and we have told our kids we would do so if we were still young and able, and that they should think about emigrating.

  48. I travelled to my not quite local shopping centre for an eye test (Free, thank you, Medicare).

    Presumably in order to encourage sales, they are ‘upgrading’ or ‘refreshing’ the facilities. It happens every so often, and probably costs the tenants more.

    First, they have restricted parking in a large section to 2 hours and sometimes less. Can’t think of a rational reason – there is no rail station within many kms.

    Second, they have blocked off the main entrance to replace/renew the escalator, much to the annoyance of the shopkeeper who used to benefit from the passing trade and now spends his time redirecting lost shoppers. He says no one knows how long it will take and the owner is contemplating suicide.

    Third, I had to walk all around the centre to access the ‘convenient lift’ – aw, fergeddit. I’m not going back.

  50. @deniseshrivell
    23m23 minutes ago

    Doesn’t feel like we had an election – still have a broken, cruel Govt which isn’t acting in the public interest. People & commentators still calling for action on issues (ignoring fact that Labor presented a policy solution) – & everyone’s still attacking Labor & Unions #auspol

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