I’m afraid in depth analysis of the result will have to wait until I’ve slept for just about the first time in 48 hours. I’ll just observe that that BludgerTrack thing on the sidebar isn’t looking too flash right now, to which the best defence I can offer is that aggregators gonna aggregate. Basically every poll at the end of the campaign showed Labor with a lead of 51.5-48.5, and so therefore did BludgerTrack – whereas it looks like the final result will end up being more like the other way around. The much maligned seat polling actually wound up looking better than the national ones, though it was all too tempting at the time to relate their pecularities to a past record of leaning in favour of the Coalition. However, even the seat polls likely overstated Labor’s position, though the number crunching required to measure how much by will have to wait for later.
Probably the sharpest piece of polling analysis to emerge before the event was provided by Mark the Ballot, who offered a prescient look at the all too obvious fact that the polling industry was guilty of herding – and, in this case, it was herding to the wrong place. In this the result carries echoes of the 2015 election in Britain, when polling spoke in one voice of an even money bet between the Conservatives and Labour, when the latter’s vote share on the day proved to be fully 6% higher. This resulted in a period of soul-searching in the British polling industry that will hopefully be reflected in Australia, where pollsters are far too secretive about their methods and provide none of the breakdowns and weighting information that are standard for the more respected pollsters internationally. More on that at a later time.
Asha
Yes voters happy to pay for Medicare is being so tin eared.
😆
Yeah, that’s how things work. It happened once, so it’s always guaranteed to happen.
Ask Bill Hayden how well being a QLD-based Labor leader works.
lizzie says Sunday, May 19, 2019 at 3:37 pm
If the Libs did that they would be finished. That’s a fair bit of their base they would be punishing.
Confessions:
“I prefer him because he’s super smart and articulate.”
Me too. But I am no longer sure that you, me or anyone else on this blog is representative of the broader electorate.
When I look at political representatives like Trump, Christensen, GWB, Barnaby Joyce, I suspect the majority are put off by people who are smart and articulate. They interpret that people who are too smart are talking down to them. They also look at people who are as dumb as GWB and Christensen and think, “if they can make it, so can I!”
PuffyTMD says Sunday, May 19, 2019 at 3:41 pm
How do you know that? Don’t say the polls.
Rational Leftist @ #1052 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 4:16 pm
I will, next time he’s allowed to actually lead at the election.
I’m still in shock over Longman. The Coalition put almost no effort in here and yet it received a winning swing. It must have been the preference deals that did it.
Abbott is the positive from this result and if they have to rely on independents for passing legislation we may get some progressive programs passed.
I don’t think so. It would’ve been a landslide if that were true.
Davidwh @ #1057 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 4:18 pm
Think death taxes on Bribie Island.
Meher Baba, Lizzie & Laughtong
Basix card costs $10,000 to administer each card. Was owned by Larry Anthony the former National Party. It works like a Gift Card, no interest earned on any money saved, limited choice of insurers (not the cheapest insurers)
Restricts items that can be purchased, initially tampons were not avail
Can’t be used in small supermarkets, so may have to travel to Coles & Woolworths. So far Basix card introduced in black communities with most people in social housing stock. If introduced in cities like Sydney, Melbourne then researchers might get access to aggregate data showing just how low welfare payments are, after all data stored overseas is very cheap to buy.
Would increase the Newstart bill by 90%
Would increase the Aged Pension bill by 50%. I think the drain on the budget would be obvious and not pass scrutiny
Many Liberal voters rely on the Aged pension and other Centrelink payments. There were 2 million Aged pensioners in 2014. Everyone is OK with the bums having their income controlled but less happy when they themselves can’t buy what they want at Bunnings, Dan Murphy’s or garage sales
Thanks billie. 🙂
Wonder what Facebook ads were directed at Longman
We will never know
bc @ #1055 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 4:17 pm
And don’t say anecdotal evidence. Guess we’ll never know.
Is the ABC worth saving? I see Midsommer Murders was on again the the zillionth time a day or so ago……………..While it sticks to Gardening Australia I suppose it will survive. I thought it’s election coverage was woeful……………no ads being the only saving grace.
Red Clyde; PuffyTMD
Union membership in Australia is about 15%, the Queensland branch of the CFMEU effectively campaigned against Labor. I fail to see how giving the union movement more say is the path to election success; pushing the vote to the level the Greens enjoy; perhaps.
That’s a stretch. If the Coalition had run “really well” they’d have a clear majority instead of just maybe 76-77 seats (and maybe, just maybe, 75).
Labor ran really poorly in one state, seemingly on one issue. And also TAS for reasons unknown. The Coalition ran okay (and pretty much got a status-quo result). The only thing they deserve credit for doing well is identify the right battlegrounds to go after.
One policy Labor should try and work on is Universal Childcare for all……….and just say to pay for it we will wind back the $80bn to millionaires then hammer the Libs relentlessly with the ” The govt doesn’t want working people to get ahead. The govt wants you to struggle…..etc etc etc. It would rather pay millionaires your tax money instead of giving families more money every week.” Set a base rate per child. Want do you want….? free child care or tax cuts to millioniares……….? Then use the policy to start or help set up not for profit child care.
Ok….I know it’s pie in the sky stuff…..but it would certainly stimulate the economy with parents of young kids getting more of a take home pay to spend….. then spending 75% of a second income on childcare…
Oakeshott Country @ #688 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 12:42 pm
Another famous prediction of yours, OC? 😆
frednk @ #1066 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 4:25 pm
Agree. Another thing that doesn’t resonate with the younger cohort is union stuff. Labor needs to look beyond its past if it wants a future.
BK @ #30 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 2:26 am
Yes, take the week off, BK. And thank you for makimg my mornings goods.
I couldn’t read any of the gloating crap that will be in all the media, any way.
PuffyTMD @ #928 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 2:57 pm
Sadly, it’s worse than that. I just don’t see a way back from a loss like this. Not in time to do anything meaningful about our rivers, our reef, our forests, our oceans or our atmosphere – at least not in time to prevent truly catastrophic outcomes on all fronts.
The turkeys have voted for Christmas 🙁
The Coalition were dead in the water until they changed leader 8 months out from a federal election, which they then went on to win. I class that as doing ‘really well’, actually. 😐
a r, they had pretty much no ground to concede and aimed to run a scare campaign against Bill Shorten, which they pulled off successfully. Every one was expecting them to lose and Morrison was going to be judged by how narrow he could make it and then he actually won re-election. It doesn’t matter that he didn’t win 90 seats, he got a government that was expected to lose re-elected to another term. I’d say that was a good, successful campaign. People here need to accept that and not try to spin it.
Wow! What a time to be alive. North Queensland delivers a stunning win for Team Morrison, despite the polls, despite the betting odds(1 bookie even paid $1.4M early such was the hubris). Yet Bridesmaid Bill never had the charisma nor the conviction to ever be taken seriously by the voters… we just didn’t believe him. It was all curtains we were told by the political class…. like Trump… like Brexit…
Talking about Brexit let’s see how accurate the polls are for the EU election in a few days time, my guess is the Brexit Party may well get north of 40%, wouldn’t that be special? Both the Conservative and Labor parties which are packed full of Remoaners(even Treasonous May is a remoaner, pretending now to be a Brexiteer) will get the wake up call of their lifetime.
The people are finally beginning to wake up to the fact that the media, polling agencies and political elite are lying to us. Fun times ahead.
FYI – it is called the age pension (not aged pension).
As this is the biggest supporter group of the Libs it will never be extended to them.
The me of 20 years ago would be shocked to find myself saying this, but I genuinely no longer care what happens to the ABC.
It is no longer fit for purpose.
I predict that the basics card will not be extended to Aged Pensioners, rather it would be aimed towards those on Centrelink payments below a certain age (35 at the moment in trial sitesh)
Tricot – Unfortunately the endless funding cuts are bound to take their toll.
Blackburnpseph @ #1030 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 4:00 pm
Really?
So it is a negative to attack a faux “Christian” who operates in complete denial of the 9th Commandment?
lizzie @ #1059 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 4:19 pm
That’s one group I have zero sympathy for. They deserve everything that they get.
Another thing that doesn’t resonate with the younger cohort is union stuff.
Another thing you are off beam about. I admit, sitting in front of a computer screen all day you don’t meet many committed young members of the Union movement, but I did.
And no, before you try and spin it that way, they didn’t all come from Union families.
No idea. Sounds like company speak. There are 50K jobs in the Coal mining sector. Obviously not all of them will lose their jobs straight away but over time that number will reduce and unfortunately people will lose their jobs.
It has happened to me. It happens to lots of people. Telstra just announced it is retrenching 8000 people. 50K lost in the car industry. BigW in SA just announced it would shed 200 staff. Another 100 staff gone from SA Dept Environment this year. And with Morrison promising ‘efficiency dividends’ in the commonwealth government agencies we can assume thousands of jobs from there too.
Jobs come and go – unfortunately. And this is an era of limited job security for staff in almost all sectors. Coal miners are not protected from that.
I’ve said for a while now that there is a choice that the ALP has to make – to stick with (and commit) to its union roots, and become a niche advocacy party (and there would be nothing inherently wrong with doing this – I think there are merits for decoupling advocating for workers from broader policy considerations), or explicitly sever ties and become the broadly progressive alternative to the conservatives that many seem to think it is or should be.
I haven’t heard anyone in the ALP talking about the latter, so I imagine the former is what is going to happen.
That leaves a political void that will take a while to fill, and leaves the conservatives in a dominant position for a while to come.
Sure, Labor may yet win some elections, but this election proves to me that the time has come that they can no longer bridge the conflicts between their union base, the inner-city progressives and the suburban graspirationals in any kind of coherent way.
sonar @ #1066 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 4:28 pm
Class warfare stuff that just failed spectacularly, sonar.
Next.
Labor ahead now in Macquarie and Chisholm, making a comeback in Bass, on the other hand you’d probably give the Coalition Wentworth and Boothby which makes them 75.
Bob Browns Qld tour had a positive impact on the Greens in the mining seats.
Herbert
Labor -4.7%
Greens +1.0%
Flynn
Labor -2.7%
Greens +0.2%
Capricornia
Labor -13.3%
Greens +.02%
Leichhardt
Labor +1.8%
Greens +1.6%
https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2019/results?filter=all&sort=az&state=qld
Davidwh @ #1057 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 4:18 pm
The role of Palmer was to promote disaffection with major parties, harvest the votes of the disaffected and then channel them to the Libs.
Worked like a charm.
DRDR says: Sunday, May 19, 2019 at 4:17 pm
Confessions:
“I prefer him because he’s super smart and articulate.”
Me too. But I am no longer sure that you, me or anyone else on this blog is representative of the broader electorate.
When I look at political representatives like Trump, Christensen, GWB, Barnaby Joyce, I suspect the majority are put off by people who are smart and articulate. They interpret that people who are too smart are talking down to them. They also look at people who are as dumb as GWB and Christensen and think, “if they can make it, so can I!”
***********************************************
Their message that resonates, faults and all – I am one of you
Adrian: too true, considering Leigh Sayles and Greg Jennett and Annabelle are obvious Liberal sycophants, so they can enjoy the budget cuts to news and current affairs.
I think there are merits for decoupling advocating for workers from broader policy considerations), or explicitly sever ties and become the broadly progressive alternative to the conservatives that many seem to think it is or should be.
I haven’t heard anyone in the ALP talking about the latter, so I imagine the former is what is going to happen.
One of the first things I said this morning was that Labor needs to look towards candidates like Zali Steggall-socially progressive but economically conservative.
I don’t think Labor should absolutely decouple from the Union movement, though, because the exploited worker will always need them. However, I do think the Union movement needs to step back a bit from their joined-at-the-hip campaigning with Labor.
Adrian
Ita will have free rein to do whatever she wants. I just don’t have a clue what that is.
Evan @ #1087 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 4:44 pm
Andrew Probyn will probably be looking for a new job, otoh.
Rex
Bob Browns Qld tour had a positive impact on the Greens in the mining seats
Absolutely 100% correct @ Labor’s & the country’s expense
I understand that Margo is upset, but she has a point:
Margo Kingston
@margokingston1
C@tmomma
says:
Sunday, May 19, 2019 at 4:29 pm
Oakeshott Country @ #688 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 12:42 pm
I would not be surprised if Albo announces his refusal to contest and impending retirement. His personal life is a little messy at the moment and he has been doing politics for a long, long time.
Another famous prediction of yours, OC?
_______________________
C@t, just recently you said there was so much dirt on ALbo that he could never be PM. Care to update your opinion?
So when Trump suddenly goes to war on brown people, Morrison will happily follow?
Sceptic @ #1093 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 4:48 pm
Labor should’ve jumped on the bus
Evan @ #1083 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 4:42 pm
I don’t think it’s been pointed out elsewhere but the reason Macquarie is so important to Scott Morrison, to the extent he exulted in it’s likely return to the Liberal fold, is that it is the home of Hillsong.