The morning after

A quick acknowledgement of pollster and poll aggregate failure, and a venue for discussion of the surprise re-election of the Morrison government.

I’m afraid in depth analysis of the result will have to wait until I’ve slept for just about the first time in 48 hours. I’ll just observe that that BludgerTrack thing on the sidebar isn’t looking too flash right now, to which the best defence I can offer is that aggregators gonna aggregate. Basically every poll at the end of the campaign showed Labor with a lead of 51.5-48.5, and so therefore did BludgerTrack – whereas it looks like the final result will end up being more like the other way around. The much maligned seat polling actually wound up looking better than the national ones, though it was all too tempting at the time to relate their pecularities to a past record of leaning in favour of the Coalition. However, even the seat polls likely overstated Labor’s position, though the number crunching required to measure how much by will have to wait for later.

Probably the sharpest piece of polling analysis to emerge before the event was provided by Mark the Ballot, who offered a prescient look at the all too obvious fact that the polling industry was guilty of herding – and, in this case, it was herding to the wrong place. In this the result carries echoes of the 2015 election in Britain, when polling spoke in one voice of an even money bet between the Conservatives and Labour, when the latter’s vote share on the day proved to be fully 6% higher. This resulted in a period of soul-searching in the British polling industry that will hopefully be reflected in Australia, where pollsters are far too secretive about their methods and provide none of the breakdowns and weighting information that are standard for the more respected pollsters internationally. More on that at a later time.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,797 comments on “The morning after”

Comments Page 21 of 36
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  1. Steggall, Haines and Sharkie will probably work with Morrison on economics. They know their seats are fundamentall conservative and won’t look kindly bringing down a conservative government or propping up a Labor one. They have learned the Windsor/ Oakeshott lesson.

  2. I also can’t help but give a big thank yo to bob brown, a bloke who always had a tin ear and who considers himself so important he can rock up to another state and tell them their jobs and communities aren’t important; that their fears and desires for certainty in employment aren’t important. That they’re second rate.

    Australia’s only progressive boomer. Onya Bob. No wonder his outfit never get more than 10% of the vote.

  3. Don’t be scared of this. We know from polling and from election results. Deliver services people will accept a tax to pay for services. It’s the whole basis for Universal Medicare.

    You must be joking.. Bill couldn’t sell the end of franking credits ( which reduces outgoings & increases net revenue ) a targeted saving & you want it substituted by “let’s raise TAX “.. fantastic slogan to campaign on.

  6. Baba

    Nope. Labor said tax loopholes not higher taxes. They went FOR tax cuts just like Rudd did. That’s not embracing higher taxes to pay for services.

    Labor with its tax for Medicare was even able to defend against Kerry Packer and then increase that tax.

  7. lizzie: “It is my understanding that owners of the Basic Card are limited in the places they can buy goods.”

    Well, if I were on a pension, and Coles, Woolworths, Big W, Kmart, etc. were included in the list of places I could go, I reckon I could probably live with that.

    I would have thought that, under the scenario you are envisaging, businesses across the country would be desperately scrambling to get on the list of approved suppliers.

  8. adrian @ #905 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 2:14 pm

    Puffy, unfortunately Australia has become a country that hates to hear the truth, so used has it become to deceiving itself.

    That is so true. We are delusional. We have no ideals, ethics, honour nor true pride.

    We are the flapping husk left when all the seeds have fallen out. We sit in the breeze and sway whichever way is easier to lean when a slight breeze disturbs us. Our pale husk shows just a hint of the bright vigorous colourful glory of our youth. Now we are nothing, with no goodness left to give the world. We sit waiting for nature to deliver the ultimate coup-de-grace.

  9. I acknowledge all those comments that say – just hang in there the next (or the one after next) and we will see the good guys win.
    Unfortunately, as far as global warming goes, we do not have the luxury of three (or heaven help us six) more years.
    Same goes for some of the other reforms the ALP proposed.
    The deep structural imbalances in the economy introduced by those wunderkind Howard & Costello – Negative gearing, capital gains, among others – will bring Australia to a dire place in the not too distant future.
    The solution will not be pretty.
    And if we should have a recession descend upon us then the neoliberal solution is – drum roll – Austerity!

  10. meher baba @ #986 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 3:40 pm

    lizzie: “Probably I’m over-reacting, but my great fear is that the Basic Card principle will be extended to aged pensions. ”

    I very much doubt this will happen but, if by some chance it did, would it actually create significant problems for most age pensioners?

    I think the backlash on this would be huge. It would make life difficult in terms of buying groceries and fresh fruit and veg from your favorite store or having it delivered. Buying liquor at all, buying anything from a market stall, Op Shop or a possibly something from a toy shop for the grandkids. Paying cash to cleaners and gardeners. Paying utility bills possibly. 80% of your payment is on the card and only accepted at a limited range of places. Only 20% available as cash.
    My friend is worried that in her small community very few places would accept the card – costs the business money to accept it -separate equipment I think.
    Also an expensive option at $10,000 per card to Indue – run by the family of a former Nats leader not that expense would worry them if they wanted to jump.

  11. Blackburnpseph @ #999 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 1:48 pm

    Steggall, Haines and Sharkie will probably work with Morrison on economics. They know their seats are fundamentall conservative and won’t look kindly bringing down a conservative government or propping up a Labor one. They have learned the Windsor/ Oakeshott lesson.

    The problems for the coalition will come on the subject of climate change. Steggall and Haines both campaigned on the issue, with Steggall even saying last night she’d be Warringah’s ‘climate warrior’.

  12. With Shorten and Abbott both gone – the last major players of the ‘Carousel Years’ – 2019 seems to be when both sides can start doing what they need to do.

  13. I don’t see much wrong with the polls. They were tightening every week as Bowen and Shorten
    announced more and more uncosted complicated policies suiting various single interest groups etc that had people thinking, how is this being paid for and it sounds uncontrolled.

    None of my business but it would seem a better way to have 3 or 4 major policies to take to election, that are 100% costed and viable and the leader can speak clearly and lucidly about that all understand and don’t deviate.
    For example, raising the New Start. And my tax change would be increase the tax-free threshold to say $25,000 or $30,000 that benefits the lower income earners much more. And really that’s all that is needed, the rest of the tax system seems fine, to my mind. Although more stimulus to the business sector and immediately would be good. Anyhows, those are policies that voters can understand immediately and hook on to and ring true as Labor. My God what a mess of policies Labor came up with though. Also Adani could have been handled much better. I’m all for it but given Labor’s position Bill Shorten could easily have said something like “Yes, we approve of this mine. Renewables are always on the agenda, but in this case the Queensland folk need those jobs and that’s the end of the matter” People need honesty like that.

  15. GP is a great reminder that broekns of all political affiliations are insufferable and being contrarian to the groupthink here doesn’t necessarily make you any better or less rusted-on.

  16. Labor just lost an election by going backwards when the other mob were falsely saying “labor will raise your taxes”, and people here are advocating labor openly saying they will, wait for it….

    Raise taxes.

    Fucking brilliant. No wonder we keep losing.

  17. “Why do the Victorians keep insisting that building railroads through us will make us love them?”

    Because it takes traffic off the roads

  18. Confessions

    Their view on climate change is well known in advance. If for some reason they did bring a government down on climate change their electorates would probably be forgiving.

  19. ItzaDream

    I’m so depressed about the Labor result that I’ve stayed in my comfy dressing-gown all day and pigged out on carbs!

  20. I think the shambles of the last six years, and a steady supply of favourable (faux, as we now know) polls, emboldened Labor to overreach, and drop its guard on political caution, and trust a wishful goodness, a fair but now seen to be foolish assumption borne muchly of their (Labor’s) own (goodness).

  21. laughtong: “Paying cash to cleaners and gardeners. ”

    Do you mean tax evasion on the part of pensioners? Like those dreadful people at the “big end of town”?

  22. meher baba

    It could be like the NT when a welfare card was rolled out years ago. The store needed to buy specific gear for it and so many small and remote stores did not get it because it was not economic . So outside of the large and or expensive shops it was ‘tough titties’ if you needed to buy something.

    As for getting around the Basics card I expect similar to what I saw in Darwin. Barter being used to buy items not able to be bought with the card. I buy this for you if you buy me that.

  23. Has anybody else noticed that the swing maps are highly reminiscent of the republic results in 1999?

  25. Burgey

    You miss the point.

    Labor did not defend the position of higher taxes. They argued no we are not raising taxes they are loopholes.

    Medicare taxes are accepted and even the LNP has been forced to accept that.

  27. @Rational Leftist

    Broken is prosecuting the same failed arguments over and over again and expecting a different result. Australians have rejected avowedly socialist, high taxing class wars. Welcome to reality.

  28. Their view on climate change is well known in advance. If for some reason they did bring a government down on climate change their electorates would probably be forgiving.

    That’s true. I was thinking more of getting anything through the parliament, seeing as the coalition now has to perform an even more delicate balancing act than bridging the partyroom: bridging the north-south divide of the country.

  29. Hopefully Morrison succeeding where Turnbull failed finally ends the tedious commentary that Liberals desperately need to shift back to the centre and embrace erudite, small L liberalism. While I’d love if that were true, it’s plain to see that, judging by the successes of the conservative leaders versus the failures of the moderate ones, the complete opposite is true.

  30. When the qualitatives are dine, i would not be surprised if the attacks on Scomo’s faith were a deciding factor for a lot of people.

  32. The changing climate will only further entrench the religious right in their belief systems. They can’t go back to reason. They will fall back on dog’s will be done. Terrifying really. Remember, we are in the sole hands of our very own rapture miracle man

  33. Red Clyde @ #917 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 2:22 pm

    G’Day,
    Long time lurker, first time poster and as a Labor supporter, current member and a unionist for over 45 years I have a few thoughts on some of the comments on Williams’ great blog particularly regarding The Union movement .
    l apologise in advance for a probably too long and rambling post as I’m not much of a writer. Firstly I’m gutted that Labor has lost once again to the forces of self interest and the only silver lining is that Bob Hawke didn’t live to be disappointed. My work history and Union involvement is as follows Vic public service-public service union, builders labourer-BLF, factory worker-Tobacco Workers Union, construction worker (Westgate Bridge)-Ironworkers Union, office worker-TWU, self employed distributor (went broke height of 80’s recession) truck driver, self employed owner driver-TWU and currently a production Worker covered by the AMWU. In that time I’ve been involved in many disputes,strikes and and general bastardry by various employers and seen the strangulation and disempowerment of the union movement by various State and Federal Tories since the early 70’s till today. Therefore I believe I have some understanding of the changes to the workplace and the Union Movement on the shop floor over these past 45 plus years.

    From the many discussions/arguments I’ve read on this blog from many different posters over the years from supporters of Unions and Labor I wonder how many have experienced being out on the grass, wondering how your going to pay your bills or feed your kids when you’re a one income household but sticking it out in solidarity with your workmates for what’s fair despite the cost or been a shop steward who put in huge hours of voluntary labour for not monetary reward but for the common good, who paint a target on themselves come every EBA from companies who will attempt to intimidate or sack them for any perceived transgression or the frustration of going to so called FairWork with a solid case only to be overturned by a biased, stacked kangaroo court, it’s like complaining to your mother in law about your wife, no hope.
    The Union Movement isn’t a theoretical or esoteric exercise but rather men and women willing to put in the time, money blood,sweat and tears for the whole Labor movement, for the benefit of all.
    For those on this Blog advocating the distancing of the Labor Party from it’s Union roots- I’ve got news for you. The ALP was set up and still is the political arm of that Union Movement. If you don’t like it, form your own party instead of high jacking mine.

    Red Clyde

    Well said, Red Clyde. Those are my sentiments exactly.

  34. Here is Jim Chalmers bio before entering federal parliament, from his parliamentary website page:

    Qualifications and occupation before entering Federal Parliament
    B.A (Griffith)
    B.Comm (Griffith)
    Ph.D (ANU)
    Research officer, Dept of Premier and Cabinet (Qld) 1999-2001
    Tutor in politics and public policy, ANU and UC 2001
    ALP National Research Manager 2002-04
    Media Adviser to the Shadow Treasurer 2005-06
    Deputy Chief of Staff to the Leader of the Opposition 2006
    Senior Adviser to the Premier of New South Wales 2006-07
    Queensland General Manager CPR 2007
    Deputy Chief of Staff and Principal Adviser to the Treasurer 2007-10
    Chief of Staff to the Deputy Prime Minister and Treasurer 2010-13
    Executive Director, Chifley Research Centre 2013

    Can someone point out to me any private enterprise experience or indeed any job outside politics/academic politics?

  35. I think Bill shuffling off is good and I think Chalmers should be encouraged to run.
    A fresh start. Give Chris Bowen some stamps and put him in the mail room.

  36. Labor just lost an election by going backwards when the other mob were falsely saying “labor will raise your taxes”, and people here are advocating labor openly saying they will, wait for it….

    Raise taxes.

    Fucking brilliant. No wonder we keep losing.

    Not people. Just one particularly tin-eared person.

  37. It’s not just Labor ‘blaming’ the Green protest.

    Coalition figures have suggested former Greens leader Bob Brown’s protest against the controversial coal mine, which wound through central Queensland during the campaign, galvanised voters for the LNP.

    “Bob’s going to get a Christmas card from me,” Senator Canavan said.

  38. Blackburnpseph @ #1030 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 4:00 pm

    When the qualitatives are dine, i would not be surprised if the attacks on Scomo’s faith were a deciding factor for a lot of people.

    I would be very surprised as, religion hardly got a mention, and, the vast majority of Australians are non-religious or only nominally religious.

  39. elecster @ #1027 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 4:03 pm

    Here is Jim Chalmers bio before entering federal parliament, from his parliamentary website page:

    Qualifications and occupation before entering Federal Parliament
    B.A (Griffith)
    B.Comm (Griffith)
    Ph.D (ANU)
    Research officer, Dept of Premier and Cabinet (Qld) 1999-2001
    Tutor in politics and public policy, ANU and UC 2001
    ALP National Research Manager 2002-04
    Media Adviser to the Shadow Treasurer 2005-06
    Deputy Chief of Staff to the Leader of the Opposition 2006
    Senior Adviser to the Premier of New South Wales 2006-07
    Queensland General Manager CPR 2007
    Deputy Chief of Staff and Principal Adviser to the Treasurer 2007-10
    Chief of Staff to the Deputy Prime Minister and Treasurer 2010-13
    Executive Director, Chifley Research Centre 2013

    Can someone point out to me any private enterprise experience or indeed any job outside politics/academic politics?

    Can someone tell me how many people know or care what Scrote did before politics?
    Yes, WE know – mostly – but most people haven’t a clue and don’t care.

  40. Chalmers as leader, as pitched by people here, would be a sign that the party haven’t learned a thing and that they think they can just patch up their problems with a well-groomed Queenslander.

  41. I dont know much about Chalmers, but i dont know that choosing someone from SE-Queensland will help in North Queensland (but im a Victorian so i dont know those influences very well)
    I think Labor needs to write off North-Queensland and plan to win without them, at least this term.
    Perhaps some good gains could be made in NSW, and retake TAS.

    EDIT: Maybe Chalmers would be a good deputy, give him some extra time in the spotlight.

  42. Can someone point out to me any private enterprise experience

    Why should that be relevant? Just look at President Trump to see that private sector experience doesn’t necessarily translate to sound government or policy leadership.

  43. I think I should add that it’s not just Labor losing that’s depressed me, it’s the knowledge of what harm the hard-nosed Libs will continue to inflict on the unemployed and the disadvantaged, while they boast about their strong economy and their millions of new jobs.

  45. When the qualitatives are dine, i would not be surprised if the attacks on Scomo’s faith were a deciding factor for a lot of people.

    Doubt it. A lot of the “incidents” that people played up here or in similar conservative circles didn’t even appear on the average voter’s radar at all. There was no Latham handshake or other defining moment. This was an election that the Coalition ran really well and Labor ran really poorly, and each got the result they deserved.

  46. Rational Leftist @ #1038 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 2:07 pm

    Chalmers as leader, as pitched by people here, would be a sign that the party haven’t learned a thing and that they think they can just patch up their problems with a well-groomed Queenslander.

    Nope you’d be wrong there. I prefer him because he’s super smart and articulate. I’d forgotten he was from Qld until someone mentioned it earlier.

  47. Big increase in the HEMP vote, moving them up from around 8th in senate in NSW, Vic, Qld to around 6th. Would a vote like that last time have got them a spot in the DD?

  48. Well who the fuck do you suggest then?

    I will wait to see who puts their hand up and what their pitch is. If Chalmers runs and can make a better pitch than that, I will consider him. But if it’s just the one being thrown around here, it’ll be a hard pass from me.

  49. guytaur @ #1006 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 3:49 pm

    Baba

    Nope. Labor said tax loopholes not higher taxes.

    Yeah, they said that. And then when the Libs put the (worthless) argument that closing tax loopholes is the same as raising taxes, they said nothing further to counter it. That was the one problem.

    And also, complacency in the face of Liberal confidence. Like when people would pop up saying the Libs were going to gain seats in Tasmania, everyone just dismissed them as crazy. It should have been taken seriously, and Shorten should have made more of an effort in those seats. Saving one (or both) of them would likely have denied the Liberals a majority government, at least.

    And also “top end of town”. Such an ineffective descriptor. I would cringe every time a Labor person said it. And they said it a lot. Just say “the rich”or “big business” ffs!

    Anyhow, I hope Labor under its new leadership moves leftwards and finds a way to pivot away from “schools, hospitals, and transport” as their core message (and stops the self-destructive sniping with the Greens). Everyone already knows Labor will do those things. They don’t bring anything new to the table and don’t resonate with the younger cohort.

    Will be interesting to see if Labor with a new leader instantly surges to a 60/40 lead in the polls, as some have more-or-less suggested.

  50. Rational Leftist @ #1040 Sunday, May 19th, 2019 – 4:07 pm

    Chalmers as leader, as pitched by people here, would be a sign that the party haven’t learned a thing and that they think they can just patch up their problems with a well-groomed Queenslander.

    Worked out badly last time. Just ask John Howard.

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