Election minus one day

The latest polling collectively suggests swings to Labor in Victoria and Western Australia, but with way too many close results in prospect for the Coalition to be counted out quite yet.

Update: YouGov Galaxy poll (51-49 to Labor)

The final national YouGov Galaxy poll for the News Corp tabloids has Labor leading 51-49, compared with 52-48 in the previous such poll, which was conducted April 23-25. The Coalition is up twon on the primary vote to 39%, Labor is steady on 37%, the Greens are steady on 9%, and One Nation and the United Australia Party are both down a point to 3%. The poll was conducted Monday to Wednesday from a sample of 1004.

Also, the Cairns Post has a YouGov Galaxy seat poll from Leichhardt which shows LNP member Warren Entsch holding on to a 51-49 lead, from primary votes of LNP 40% (39.5% in 2016), Labor 34% (28.1%), Greens 8% (8.8%), Katter’s Australian Party 7% (4.3%), One Nation 4% (7.5%) and the United Australia Party 5%. The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 634.

BludgerTrack has now been updated with the national YouGov Galaxy result and state breakdowns from Essential Research, which, as has consistently been the case with new polling over the final week, has made no difference observable without a microscope.

Original post

To impose a bit of order on proceedings, I offer the following review of the latest polling and horse race information, separately from the post below for those wishing to discuss the life and legacy of Bob Hawke. As per last night’s post, which appeared almost the exact minute that news of Hawke’s death came through, the Nine Newspapers stable last night brought us the final Ipsos poll of the campaign, pointing to a tight contest: 51-49 on two-party preferred, down from 52-48 a fortnight ago. I can only assume this applies to both previous election and respondent-allocated two-party measures, since none of the reporting suggests otherwise. I have added the result to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, with minimal impact.

We also have new YouGov Galaxy seat polls from The West Australian, conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday, and here too we find tight contests:

Cowan (Labor 0.7%): Labor’s Anne Aly is credited with a lead of 53-47, from primary votes of Labor 42% (41.7% in 2016), Liberal 38% (42.2%), One Nation 5% and United Australia Party 2%. No result provided for the Greens. Sample: 528.

Pearce (Liberal 3.6%): Liberal member Christian Porter leads 51-49, from primary votes of Liberal 42% (45.4% in 2016), Labor 36% (34.3%), Greens 10% (11.0%), United Australia Party 4% and One Nation 3%. Sample: 545.

Swan (Liberal 3.6%): Liberal member Steve Irons is level with Labor candidate Hannah Beazley, from primary votes of Liberal 41% (48.2% in 2016), Labor 38% (33.0%), Greens 9% (15.0%), United Australia Party 5% and One Nation 2%. Sample: 508.

Hasluck (Liberal 2.1%): Liberal member Ken Wyatt is level with Labor candidate James Martin, from primary votes of Liberal 39% (44.9% in 2016), Labor 36% (35.3%), Greens 9% (12.7%), United Australia Party 5% and One Nation 5%. Sample: 501.

Stirling (Liberal 6.1%): Liberal candidate Vince Connelly leads Labor’s Melita Markey 51-49. The only primary votes provided are 2% for One Nation and 1% for the United Australia Party. Sample: 517.

Then there was yesterday’s avalanche of ten YouGov Galaxy polls from the eastern seaboard states in the News Corp papers, for which full results were also provided in last night’s post. Even single one of these produced result inside the polls’ fairly ample 4% margins of error. Labor was only credited with leads in only two, both in New South Wales: of 52-48 in Gilmore (a 0.7% Liberal margin), and 53-47 in Macquarie (a 2.2% Labor margin), the latter being one of only two Labor-held seats covered by the polling. The other, the Queensland seat of Herbert (a 0.0% Labor margin), was one of three showing a dead heat, together with La Trobe (a 3.2% Liberal margin) in Victoria and Forde (a 0.6% LNP margin) in Queensland.

The polls had the Coalition slightly ahead in the Queensland seats of Flynn (a 1.0% LNP margin), by 53-47, and Dickson (a 1.7% LNP margin), by 51-49. In Victoria, the Liberals led in Deakin (a 6.4% Liberal margin), by 51-49, and Higgins (a 7.4% Liberal margin), by 52-48 over the Greens – both consistent with the impression that the state is the government’s biggest headache.

Betting markets have been up and down over the past week, though with Labor consistently clear favourites to win government. However, expectations of a clear Labor win have significantly moderated on the seat markets since I last updated the Ladbrokes numbers a week ago. Labor are now rated favourites in 76 seats out of 151; the Coalition are favourites in 68 seats; one seat, Capricornia, is evens; and independents and minor parties tipped to win Clark, Melbourne, Mayo, Farrer and Warringah. The Liberals has overtaken Labor to become favourites in Lindsay, Bonner, Boothby and Pearce, and Leichhardt, Braddon and Deakin have gone from evens to favouring the Coalition. Conversely, Bass and Stirling have gone from evens to favouring the Coalition, and Zali Steggall is for the first time favoured to gain Warringah from Tony Abbott. You can find odds listed in the bottom right of each electorate entry on the Poll Bludger election guide.

If you’re after yet more of my words of wisdom on the election, Crikey has lifted its paywall until tomorrow night, and you will find my own articles assembled here. That should be supplemented with my concluding review of the situation later today. You can also listen to a podcast below conducted by Ben Raue of the Tally Room, also featuring Elizabeth Humphrys of UTS Arts and Social Sciences, featuring weighty listening on anti-politics (Humphrys’ speciality) and lighter fare on the state of the election campaign (mine).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,521 comments on “Election minus one day”

Comments Page 23 of 31
1 … 22 23 24 … 31

  1. Fess

    BotlA sounds a bit down (Awwww). However I am sure Peta and Jones will be explaining just how Labor has no chance. Must watch them if Labor wins. Will be a schadenfreudefest watching it .

  2. South

    Just a reminder that Boerwar was the chief advocate for an informal vote in 2013 that delivered Abbott.

    Take his advice at your peril.

  3. SBS news also had a great tribute to Hawke, and subtly reminding people that Labor under Hawke and Keating were great economic managers.

  4. Ven
    Yep. Which makes his engagement in the FUD campaign (they are rapists and murderers) about the medical evacuation of refugees even more egregious.
    Morrison is one sick Trumpian puppy.

  6. C@t will be good to see the end of Lucy Wicks. I had the misfortune of having a meeting with her over rail and she’s a mental midget.

  7. p
    Bolt just wasted six years of his life trying to get Abbott, Dutton, Abetz, Hastie & Co into positions of supreme power.

  8. I have to concur with SB, the info, humour and off the radar BS has been great. Bedwetters, not so much. Good times.

  14. Cud,
    As you probably have realised, Lucy Wicks has one talent-promoting Lucy Wicks.

    Anyway, it has cost her dearly, and that is all I am going to say.

  18. Guys
    About 4.3 million voters cast their ballot in pre-poll. About 1.4 postal votes were requested from AEC.
    According to Ipsos and Galaxy, the pre-poll broke 53-47 in LNP favour. So I do not know how that will impact the final result.

  20. In WA the election coverage coincides with Fremantle v Essendon. Yeah, I know.
    I can watch one on TV and one on iPad.
    Question is which one do I mute?
    Given the likely standard of commentary maybe both?
    After all, the score is all we need to know and that will be on the screen.
    Of course footy starts at 5 25pm WA time. Antony might have called it by then!

  21. Quick question – is there any prospect that Greens preference flows to ALP will be even stronger than modelled because Labor is prosecuting a stronger Climate Change policy than in 2016?

  22. Of course unmentioned in the all reports how Hawke & Keating got unions to moderate their demands etc etc which also helped the modernisation of the economy, helping to increase company profits exponentially is how the very companies who profited from so much of this so quickly turned around and sought the muzzling of unions and the imposition of no choice ‘work choices’.

    How quickly it is all ‘forgotten’.

    By some anyway.

  23. Caution

    In South Australia 16 years of government caught up with Labor and there is now a Liberal Government

    From the Victorian side of the border we see the impact of the right wing austerity ideology in South Australia

    The Victorian State Government now fully supports the “Melbourne Express”, the train service between Adelaide and Melbourne because the South Australian government withdrew support

    Tony McEvoy who assumed the Lindsay Park horse training facilities at Angaston and Murray Bridge from the Hayes family has transferred operations to Ballarat citing the lack of support for the Racing Industry in SA, an industry which is now withering on the vine due to the lack of government support by returning a dividend to the industry

    McEvoy has called for sackings within the government

    Perhaps those in SA have other stories?

    Austerity delivers confidence and that confidence trickles down, hey?

  27. If you want some LOLs get on to Twitter and witness some of the outrage of the lib for hards at shorten apparently exploiting bobs death and there’s even some people still trying to push the rape thing!

  29. BK
    Bluey says thank you and takes that as the ultimate compliment from a such as distinguished Bludger contributor as yourself.
    May the gods reward your efforts such that by this time tomorrow night Morrison is pouring beer on his head in despair.

  31. I’m guessing Newspoll tonight will show TPP ALP 51.5 L/NP 48.5

    They round to the nearest half point on election eve polls, and that’s my best guess of where we are on national polling, I think Essential is right. Not game to try and pick the actual election result.

  32. Hawke and Keating were terrible economic policy makers prone to amateurish mistakes, and they deserve blame for worsening the problems of chronic unemployment, decreasing job security, and increasing inequality of wealth and income. But Medicare was a mighty achievement, as were the environmental protection decisions of those governments.

  33. Boerwar:

    I’ve just sought out Bluey’s final salvo. Bravo!

    I hope he becomes a Bludger feature of national elections.

  36. From The Australian:
    Postal vote edge for ALP

    New data from the AEC shows Labor has submitted more ballots than the Coalition in two ultra marginal seats.

  37. Perhaps those in SA have other stories?

    They’re pushing to completely privatise our public transport. Funny thing is: last year, when it was warned that the Libs would go on a privatising spree, those who made the warnings were accused of desperate scaremongering.

    I look forward to the future, when this government is long gone and people are paying ridiculous fares for really terrible public transport (worse than now), courtesy of the private owners, and the media (and Liberal opposition – no doubt with Rob Lucas still as the Shadow Treasurer) blaming the Labor Government at the time for it.

  39. Just want to say thanks to all the assembled Bludgers for being good company in these tense times. It’s always comforting to see a group of people equally obsessed!

    And yes, even the tragic LNP diehards: it was sort of reassuring to see that only the crazy ones were still bothering to post here. The endless repeaters, the mad prognosticators, the cut-and-pasters (yes I still think this, 2 minutes on)

    Except the concern trolls. FMD, what a bore.

    Onward, bludgers, to victory….!

  40. Just to add, for the McEvoy report calling for sackings in the SA government go to Racing.com

    McEvoy gives his reasons

  42. Shellbell,

    Only go to the Oxford Tavern of a Sunday arvo when they do a terrific southern American style bbq out the back at a good price.

  47. If the polls have been 51% and better for Labor right through the election period, how come it’s 53-47 for the Liars in prepolling?

  49. Those pre-poll figures Ven posted suggest the vote tomorrow will be about 47-53 if Labor is to end up at a TPP of 51%.

  50. Another thanks to the psephy cephy Bluey for his daily view of the campaign trail from the rockpool. Wisdom like that is rare and hard earned, and much appreciated. 🙂

Comments Page 23 of 31
1 … 22 23 24 … 31

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *