Election minus one day

The latest polling collectively suggests swings to Labor in Victoria and Western Australia, but with way too many close results in prospect for the Coalition to be counted out quite yet.

Update: YouGov Galaxy poll (51-49 to Labor)

The final national YouGov Galaxy poll for the News Corp tabloids has Labor leading 51-49, compared with 52-48 in the previous such poll, which was conducted April 23-25. The Coalition is up twon on the primary vote to 39%, Labor is steady on 37%, the Greens are steady on 9%, and One Nation and the United Australia Party are both down a point to 3%. The poll was conducted Monday to Wednesday from a sample of 1004.

Also, the Cairns Post has a YouGov Galaxy seat poll from Leichhardt which shows LNP member Warren Entsch holding on to a 51-49 lead, from primary votes of LNP 40% (39.5% in 2016), Labor 34% (28.1%), Greens 8% (8.8%), Katter’s Australian Party 7% (4.3%), One Nation 4% (7.5%) and the United Australia Party 5%. The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 634.

BludgerTrack has now been updated with the national YouGov Galaxy result and state breakdowns from Essential Research, which, as has consistently been the case with new polling over the final week, has made no difference observable without a microscope.

Original post

To impose a bit of order on proceedings, I offer the following review of the latest polling and horse race information, separately from the post below for those wishing to discuss the life and legacy of Bob Hawke. As per last night’s post, which appeared almost the exact minute that news of Hawke’s death came through, the Nine Newspapers stable last night brought us the final Ipsos poll of the campaign, pointing to a tight contest: 51-49 on two-party preferred, down from 52-48 a fortnight ago. I can only assume this applies to both previous election and respondent-allocated two-party measures, since none of the reporting suggests otherwise. I have added the result to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, with minimal impact.

We also have new YouGov Galaxy seat polls from The West Australian, conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday, and here too we find tight contests:

Cowan (Labor 0.7%): Labor’s Anne Aly is credited with a lead of 53-47, from primary votes of Labor 42% (41.7% in 2016), Liberal 38% (42.2%), One Nation 5% and United Australia Party 2%. No result provided for the Greens. Sample: 528.

Pearce (Liberal 3.6%): Liberal member Christian Porter leads 51-49, from primary votes of Liberal 42% (45.4% in 2016), Labor 36% (34.3%), Greens 10% (11.0%), United Australia Party 4% and One Nation 3%. Sample: 545.

Swan (Liberal 3.6%): Liberal member Steve Irons is level with Labor candidate Hannah Beazley, from primary votes of Liberal 41% (48.2% in 2016), Labor 38% (33.0%), Greens 9% (15.0%), United Australia Party 5% and One Nation 2%. Sample: 508.

Hasluck (Liberal 2.1%): Liberal member Ken Wyatt is level with Labor candidate James Martin, from primary votes of Liberal 39% (44.9% in 2016), Labor 36% (35.3%), Greens 9% (12.7%), United Australia Party 5% and One Nation 5%. Sample: 501.

Stirling (Liberal 6.1%): Liberal candidate Vince Connelly leads Labor’s Melita Markey 51-49. The only primary votes provided are 2% for One Nation and 1% for the United Australia Party. Sample: 517.

Then there was yesterday’s avalanche of ten YouGov Galaxy polls from the eastern seaboard states in the News Corp papers, for which full results were also provided in last night’s post. Even single one of these produced result inside the polls’ fairly ample 4% margins of error. Labor was only credited with leads in only two, both in New South Wales: of 52-48 in Gilmore (a 0.7% Liberal margin), and 53-47 in Macquarie (a 2.2% Labor margin), the latter being one of only two Labor-held seats covered by the polling. The other, the Queensland seat of Herbert (a 0.0% Labor margin), was one of three showing a dead heat, together with La Trobe (a 3.2% Liberal margin) in Victoria and Forde (a 0.6% LNP margin) in Queensland.

The polls had the Coalition slightly ahead in the Queensland seats of Flynn (a 1.0% LNP margin), by 53-47, and Dickson (a 1.7% LNP margin), by 51-49. In Victoria, the Liberals led in Deakin (a 6.4% Liberal margin), by 51-49, and Higgins (a 7.4% Liberal margin), by 52-48 over the Greens – both consistent with the impression that the state is the government’s biggest headache.

Betting markets have been up and down over the past week, though with Labor consistently clear favourites to win government. However, expectations of a clear Labor win have significantly moderated on the seat markets since I last updated the Ladbrokes numbers a week ago. Labor are now rated favourites in 76 seats out of 151; the Coalition are favourites in 68 seats; one seat, Capricornia, is evens; and independents and minor parties tipped to win Clark, Melbourne, Mayo, Farrer and Warringah. The Liberals has overtaken Labor to become favourites in Lindsay, Bonner, Boothby and Pearce, and Leichhardt, Braddon and Deakin have gone from evens to favouring the Coalition. Conversely, Bass and Stirling have gone from evens to favouring the Coalition, and Zali Steggall is for the first time favoured to gain Warringah from Tony Abbott. You can find odds listed in the bottom right of each electorate entry on the Poll Bludger election guide.

If you’re after yet more of my words of wisdom on the election, Crikey has lifted its paywall until tomorrow night, and you will find my own articles assembled here. That should be supplemented with my concluding review of the situation later today. You can also listen to a podcast below conducted by Ben Raue of the Tally Room, also featuring Elizabeth Humphrys of UTS Arts and Social Sciences, featuring weighty listening on anti-politics (Humphrys’ speciality) and lighter fare on the state of the election campaign (mine).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,521 comments on “Election minus one day”

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  4. Interesting to see pm in the electorate again! Really backing his captains pick. Meanwhile all booths around northern part of electorate are covered in alp bunting and no coalition in sight….

  6. Minutes silence for Bob Hawke at the first game of Rugby League this round. All the respect has to help ALP tomorrow I think.

  7. Just drove past the local Primary School on the way to pick my son up from the train station. Shockingly, one of the posters the Liberals are going with as part of their bunting tomorrow is the ‘Your Rents Will Go Up!’ scare.

    It’s Liberal. It lies.

  8. After watching that 1983 Press Club presser, I began to wonder what Hawke would have said in reply to a Liberal PM who believed all he had to do was smirk in that know-all kind of way and then simply mention “school Halls and Pink Batts” to utterly crush Labor’s economic record and ability to manage the economy.

    I’ve seen too many Labor leaders let the Tories get away with this kind of bullshit. Yet it still goes on. Not even questioned – not by the voters, not by the media and certainly not even by Labor.

    Labor saved the Australian economy from ruin. “School Halls” and “Pink Batts” gave employment to tens of thousands, kept the construction industry alive, gave us all hope.

    And these sneering half-wits get away with slagging that effort off so rout9inely that it is by now accepted wisdom.

    If Labor loses the election, it’ll be because of this. It’ll be because even when they match, word for sword, a Coalition policy, the PM can just say, “Yeah, same policy, but they’ll muck it up for sure,” and nobody stands up and says No!

  9. Funny Scomo is last minute campaigning in a seat that even Galaxy predicts his man will lose tomorrow. Oh well, Warren Mundine was his pick, he wears that one.

  10. I was at the petrol pump today and one of the Liberal Party ads came on the bowser TV. If you were somewhere which was really car dependent or you had a job that required to drive and fill up a lot, you would get a lot of exposure to those ads. The story about taxes would sink in more when you have to go in and pay for another tank. I wonder if that advertising ‘source’ is driving what is a surprising Lib uplift in the polls.

  11. Menzies is an electorate to look out for, it has a margin of just under 8%, GetUp! are targeting the sitting Kevin Andrews and Labor have chosen Stella Yee as a candidate. I predict Labor could win this seat or come close to winning.

  12. Evan
    I lived through Fraser, Howard, Abbott and Turnball, I could live through 3 years of Morrison………sure, it’s not the end of the world if the other side wins, life does go on. But you’d sure prefer it if your guy or girl triumphs.

    True, but at least the others were at least moderately competent. You can’t accuse the Morrison government of that.

  13. I’ve survived Lyons, Page, Menzies, Fadden, Curtin, Forde, Chifley, Menzies2, Holt, McEwen, Gorton, McMahon, Whitlam, Fraser, Hawke, Keating, Howard, Rudd, Gillard, Rudd2, Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison – but simply can’t take it any more.

  14. If football games observe a minute of silence after Hawke’s demise, I predict they will probably cancel an entire round when the great John Howard ascends to eternal glory.

  16. I also remember when Ronald Reagan died it seemed to give Geroge W Bush’s campaign a bump. I think everybody remember the greatness of RJL Hawke will have a similar effect…

  17. I wonder where the “Division of Hawke” will be, the next time the AEC does a revision?

    Despite being born in SA, we don’t really have a strong claim on him. Either WA (where he was raised) or Victoria (where his seat in parliament was) are stronger contenders, IMO.

  20. If Morrison wins, it will be best said in the immortal words of Samuel Beckett;
    “I can’t go on.
    I’ll go on.”

  21. I also remember when Ronald Reagan died it seemed to give Geroge W Bush’s campaign a bump. I think everybody remember the greatness of RJL Hawke will have a similar effect…

    I remember that! We called it “Reaganmas” because it was dragged out for so long and seemed to be done with an almost religious reverence from Republicans.

  23. AFR quoting IPSOS

    Younger Australians aged under 40 overwhelmingly back Labor over the Coalition by larger margins than on the eve of the 2016 election.

    Seventy-one per cent of voters aged up to 24 favour Labor, compared to just 29 per cent of that same age group supporting the Coalition, in two-party preferred terms.

    That’s a four percentage point swing compared to three years ago.

    The poll indicates Labor has picked up the biggest gains among 25 to 39-year-olds, gaining seven percentage points and the Coalition losing the same amount amongst this age cohort.

    Labor leads 63-37 for the 25 to 39-year-olds, according to the poll of 2822 voters surveyed in the first half of May 2019.

    https://www.afr.com/news/politics/national/divide-widens-between-young-older-voters-20190517-p51oe7

  26. Labor has promised to buy and restore the Bordertown house where Robert James Lee Hawke was born. Doubt that will swing many votes among the locals, though.

  27. Channel 9 Brisbane news couldn’t be much worse for the lnp on election Eve.

    Dutton getting panned by his local constituents. Lots of reminiscing of Hawke. Then a thorough battering of Dutton and Morrison about the us refugee deal.

    How this election can be close I have no idea. Let’s see how it goes tomorrow night.

  28. Jackol @ #936 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 5:51 pm

    ltep – clearly the world won’t end.

    However, Labor losing this election would have a series of very unfortunate consequences for our polity.

    The current rabble would only become more of a joke.
    Labor, of course, would need to blood a new leader and would probably ditch the whole notion of having any policies, but rely on the classic opposition tactic of just rubbishing the government to get in.
    Disillusionment by the public in democracy as a concept would only increase, with continuous whining about how our political leaders are so awful.
    The chance of the electorate turning to a Trump or a Grillo or a Duterte or a Zelensky would increase enormously.
    We would continue to be delinquent in our climate change responsibilities.
    And that’s without considering continued corrosion of our public institutions and public service.

    It’s all quite grim, even trying to take a “how bad could it really be?” perspective.

    Bob Hawke and Gough Whitlam would spin in their graves at the thought of Labor ‘ditching the whole notion of having any policies, but rely on the classic opposition tactic of just rubbishing the government to get in’.

    If Labor lose they must NOT revert to the above – they must find a leadership team that has the skill and personality to engage the public and sell their messaging in the strongest of ways.

  29. Bluey’s First Ever Nellie Melba Farewell Report

    Team Labor has hung together to the last: Keating and Hawke reconciled. Rudd and Gillard fronted together for the Launch. Hawke, Keating, Gillard and Rudd have all worked in the campaign. And now Hawke dies and steals Morrison’s oxygen big time at possibly a critical time. Bluey reckons that Hawke would have enjoyed that.

    Bluey notes that Abbott returned to form. Bluey recalls Abbott bastardizing eulogies in the House when he was Prime Minister: Abbott’s Inner Bastard is never far from the surface. Bluey reckons that Abbott is going to do a Howard: lose his seat.

    Bluey notes that Shorten coasted today and sank a few coldies while Morrison continued with his manic attempts to scrounge a vote here and a vote there.

    Bluey reckons that late breaking mail on Ruandan alleged killers, Angus Taylor’s Oxford pal, and the internecine hate between the Liberals and the Nationals in NSW will make much difference but, if it does make a difference, it will count against the Coalition.

    Assessing the campaign, Bluey has been appalled at the hate fest and the lie fest on social media. Bluey has been appalled that a very wealthy colourful identity could credibly buy a Senate seat as well as determine the choice of government. Bluey is appalled that this colourful person’s campaign was based solidly on an outrageous re-run of the Yellow Peril. Nowhere did Bluey see the MSM seriously address this appalling nonsense. Bluey is appalled that Trumpism was so very readily embraced by Morrison, Frydenberg, Birmingham and Palmer. Blatant, big, lies were shovelled out thick and fast. Labor supporters would be somewhat surprised to learn that they are baby killers and that they intend to levy a trillion dollar in taxes and that they are preparing Australia for an invasion by Communist China. Bluey is appalled that the personal denigration and vilification of Shorten reached new depths during this campaign. Bluey is appalled that, right unto the death, the Greens were still 100% focused on skiving off Labor. Finally, Bluey is appalled at the general lack of humour and humanity in the campaign.

    Bluey’s score for the day: Labour 1 point; Coalition minus 3 points because of death of Bob Hawke, and the last gasp effort of Abbott to demonstrate that his inner bastard is always there.
    Cumulative Score: Labor 30; Liberals 0.

    Bluey’s final seat prediction: a Labor majority government with 79 seats.
    Bluey’s prediction for Palmer: no Senate seat.
    Bluey’s prediction for LOTO: Morrison until the first killing season. Without the advantages of incumbency, Morrison is nothing but a lying, blowhard nothingburger.
    Bluey’s prediction for the Opposition: it will be utterly incapable of banding together and developing a comprehensive suite of costed and funded policies. The open question is whether the rabble can continue to be in the same Party.
    Bluey’s prediction for McCormack: haha. Who? and Who cares?
    Bluey’s prediction for Court of Disputed Return referrals: at least five Coalition members, provided they are elected in the first place.
    Bluey’s prediction on energy and emissions policy: a bipartisan consolidated package through the Senate before Christmas.
    Bluey predicts that the Greens will announce that it is not perfect.
    Bluey’s prediction on interest rates: next decision a cut.
    Bluey’s prediction on the Drought: general rains will break the record drought because it always rains more under Labor.
    Bluey’s prediction on the Greens: the post-election recriminations will be unrestrained after yet another general failure at a Federal election.
    Bluey’s prediction on the MSM: the Murdochracy is going to regret six years of bastardry.
    Bluey’s prediction on Mr Taylor, Joyce, Dutton and others of their ilk: beware the Royal Commissions that are coming to get you.

    Bluey wishes all Bludgers well and now returns to his rock pool.

  30. Gawd. Reps ballot paper stinks. Can’t decide the final 3 order from Lib, UPA & Fred Nile. Have always put Nile last but am tempted to put Clive there.

    Any thoughts?

  33. Sceptic @ #947 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 6:02 pm

    jeff
    You might enjoy this ( Barry is now 86)

    April 2019

    Barry Jones
    The death of political debate

    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2019/03/30/the-death-political-debate/15538644007917

    Thank you for this, Sceptic, I had missed it. I love Barry Jones analytical overview of the current politics:

    Our politics is today dominated by the infantilisation of debate and the fallacy of the false antithesis. “If we don’t beat up on refugees, we will be overrun…” “Too much tolerance will destroy our traditional values…” “If we don’t promote the use of coal, next month’s power bill will ruin us.” “You can’t preserve the rule of law in an emergency…” “We have to impose secrecy to protect an open society.” “If we increase our emission reduction targets we won’t be able to watch night footy!”

    The demand for instant response through social media, where most of our information about the world is now received, has weakened our sense of, or empathy with, “the other”, the remote, the unfamiliar, and has all but destroyed our sense of community, being members of a group. Now individualism is not just the primary motivator, but the only one.

    And his analysis of Scott Morrison is spot on:

    The Italian philosopher, historian and novelist Umberto Eco deplored the “use of an impoverished vocabulary, and an elementary syntax, in order to limit the instruments for complex and critical reasoning”. He was writing about Fascism, but his remarks could apply to the mindless clichés and dumbed-down repetitive mantras from Scott Morrison and his ministers. “Fair dinkum”, “congestion buster”. George Orwell made the same point in his essay “Politics and the English Language” – by destroying effective use of language, serious debate becomes impossible.

    In the forthcoming election, there is no hope of a serious debate. Morrison’s combination of feel-good vacuity and naked appeal to fear and prejudice will not be presented as structured argument. Attempting debate would be as futile as shovelling fog.

    And he reflects on a golden age of Post War politics:

    When I was first elected to the house of representatives in 1977, there were outstanding debates. Often between members of parliament who were without much formal education, but who shared three things: life experience, much of it very tough; a prodigious reading ability; and an understanding of a counterargument and how to rebut it.

    Comparing that with today:

    But they were times dominated by “conviction politics”. We live now in the era of “retail politics”, where ministers don’t ask, “Is it right?” but “Will it sell?” There is policy paralysis. A significant failure of nerve by those who purport to be leaders, largely because they have little or no grasp of how to frame a debate.

    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2019/03/30/the-death-political-debate/15538644007917

    Thanks again for that. 🙂

  34. Tristo

    I have driven through Menzies a few times lately and the lack of corflutes or even ‘this is the climate election’ signs has been quite striking. There might be more across the river in Eltham but not around Doncaster or Donvale. Only corflutes I have seen have been for Kevin Andrews and none at all for the ALP. Stark contrast to say Aston which is on a similar margin.

  35. It would be more appropriate for Howard to pop his clogs during cricket season and get his silence there.

    All this bed wetting… Cheer up people. Morrison is gone tomorrow. You probably all thought the Vic election was going to be close, that Labor was going to lose the Longman and Braddon byelections and that Turnbull was going to cruise in 2016 with a comfy majority (he certainly thought so). It would take a black swan polling failure in the opposite direction to every other recent polling failure to let Morrison win, or a Trump level win-despite-losing-the-popular-vote scenario. Not saying either is impossible, but neither is even likely let alone probable.

    A polling miss of that magnitude would crush confidence in and reliance on polling for a generation – agree, disagree?

  36. Bushfire Bill @ #951 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 6:05 pm

    After watching that 1983 Press Club presser, I began to wonder what Hawke would have said in reply to a Liberal PM who believed all he had to do was smirk in that know-all kind of way and then simply mention “school Halls and Pink Batts” to utterly crush Labor’s economic record and ability to manage the economy.

    I’ve seen too many Labor leaders let the Tories get away with this kind of bullshit. Yet it still goes on. Not even questioned – not by the voters, not by the media and certainly not even by Labor.

    Labor saved the Australian economy from ruin. “School Halls” and “Pink Batts” gave employment to tens of thousands, kept the construction industry alive, gave us all hope.

    And these sneering half-wits get away with slagging that effort off so rout9inely that it is by now accepted wisdom.

    If Labor loses the election, it’ll be because of this. It’ll be because even when they match, word for sword, a Coalition policy, the PM can just say, “Yeah, same policy, but they’ll muck it up for sure,” and nobody stands up and says No!

    The death of Bob Hawke has reminded the Labor faithful of what a genuine leader is.

  38. “Gawd. Reps ballot paper stinks. Can’t decide the final 3 order from Lib, UPA & Fred Nile”

    Worse in Griffith. Libs, Palmer, ONP and Anning.

  40. This election was a dice-roll for the ALP.

    I gather that 8-10 months ago, they decided that they were so far ahead, they’d put up the negative gearing and franking credits changes, reckoning they’d still win.

    This is the right choice, ethically speaking. Australia can’t afford these tax rorts.

    But it was always going to be risky in the polls.

    We’ll see how it lands tomorrow night.

    And please, Zali, give him the boot.

  42. mikehilliard @ #972 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 6:22 pm

    Gawd. Reps ballot paper stinks. Can’t decide the final 3 order from Lib, UPA & Fred Nile. Have always put Nile last but am tempted to put Clive there.

    Any thoughts?

    Clive is much more dangerous that Fred Nile. Nile is an old man whose influence in politics is waning. I don’t think you will have a problem in your electorate with the Liberals in the last 2, wouldn’t it be The Greens and Labor again (iirc that your electorate is inner city Sydney?). So them above the more dangerous pair.

  45. Should current trends continue, Victoria would be entitled to an extra seat before either the 2022 or 2025 election. That would solve the Hawke seat naming conundrum.

    Should an existing seat be renamed, Hotham is probably the least relevant current seat name.

  46. @Arky

    I hope you’re right. The day before the Vic state election, I was genuinely worried for my electorate. I had the weirdest feeling that Labor would scrape in, but the Libs would regain Mordialloc and Carrum.

    Then before you know it, there was a 10% Labor swing in the sandbelt.

    Fingers crossed.

  50. On current population trends, Victoria will gain its 39th, WA narrowly misses out on keeping its 16th, the ACT narrowly keeping its 3rd, and the NT will lose its 2nd.

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