Election minus one day

The latest polling collectively suggests swings to Labor in Victoria and Western Australia, but with way too many close results in prospect for the Coalition to be counted out quite yet.

Update: YouGov Galaxy poll (51-49 to Labor)

The final national YouGov Galaxy poll for the News Corp tabloids has Labor leading 51-49, compared with 52-48 in the previous such poll, which was conducted April 23-25. The Coalition is up twon on the primary vote to 39%, Labor is steady on 37%, the Greens are steady on 9%, and One Nation and the United Australia Party are both down a point to 3%. The poll was conducted Monday to Wednesday from a sample of 1004.

Also, the Cairns Post has a YouGov Galaxy seat poll from Leichhardt which shows LNP member Warren Entsch holding on to a 51-49 lead, from primary votes of LNP 40% (39.5% in 2016), Labor 34% (28.1%), Greens 8% (8.8%), Katter’s Australian Party 7% (4.3%), One Nation 4% (7.5%) and the United Australia Party 5%. The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 634.

BludgerTrack has now been updated with the national YouGov Galaxy result and state breakdowns from Essential Research, which, as has consistently been the case with new polling over the final week, has made no difference observable without a microscope.

Original post

To impose a bit of order on proceedings, I offer the following review of the latest polling and horse race information, separately from the post below for those wishing to discuss the life and legacy of Bob Hawke. As per last night’s post, which appeared almost the exact minute that news of Hawke’s death came through, the Nine Newspapers stable last night brought us the final Ipsos poll of the campaign, pointing to a tight contest: 51-49 on two-party preferred, down from 52-48 a fortnight ago. I can only assume this applies to both previous election and respondent-allocated two-party measures, since none of the reporting suggests otherwise. I have added the result to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, with minimal impact.

We also have new YouGov Galaxy seat polls from The West Australian, conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday, and here too we find tight contests:

Cowan (Labor 0.7%): Labor’s Anne Aly is credited with a lead of 53-47, from primary votes of Labor 42% (41.7% in 2016), Liberal 38% (42.2%), One Nation 5% and United Australia Party 2%. No result provided for the Greens. Sample: 528.

Pearce (Liberal 3.6%): Liberal member Christian Porter leads 51-49, from primary votes of Liberal 42% (45.4% in 2016), Labor 36% (34.3%), Greens 10% (11.0%), United Australia Party 4% and One Nation 3%. Sample: 545.

Swan (Liberal 3.6%): Liberal member Steve Irons is level with Labor candidate Hannah Beazley, from primary votes of Liberal 41% (48.2% in 2016), Labor 38% (33.0%), Greens 9% (15.0%), United Australia Party 5% and One Nation 2%. Sample: 508.

Hasluck (Liberal 2.1%): Liberal member Ken Wyatt is level with Labor candidate James Martin, from primary votes of Liberal 39% (44.9% in 2016), Labor 36% (35.3%), Greens 9% (12.7%), United Australia Party 5% and One Nation 5%. Sample: 501.

Stirling (Liberal 6.1%): Liberal candidate Vince Connelly leads Labor’s Melita Markey 51-49. The only primary votes provided are 2% for One Nation and 1% for the United Australia Party. Sample: 517.

Then there was yesterday’s avalanche of ten YouGov Galaxy polls from the eastern seaboard states in the News Corp papers, for which full results were also provided in last night’s post. Even single one of these produced result inside the polls’ fairly ample 4% margins of error. Labor was only credited with leads in only two, both in New South Wales: of 52-48 in Gilmore (a 0.7% Liberal margin), and 53-47 in Macquarie (a 2.2% Labor margin), the latter being one of only two Labor-held seats covered by the polling. The other, the Queensland seat of Herbert (a 0.0% Labor margin), was one of three showing a dead heat, together with La Trobe (a 3.2% Liberal margin) in Victoria and Forde (a 0.6% LNP margin) in Queensland.

The polls had the Coalition slightly ahead in the Queensland seats of Flynn (a 1.0% LNP margin), by 53-47, and Dickson (a 1.7% LNP margin), by 51-49. In Victoria, the Liberals led in Deakin (a 6.4% Liberal margin), by 51-49, and Higgins (a 7.4% Liberal margin), by 52-48 over the Greens – both consistent with the impression that the state is the government’s biggest headache.

Betting markets have been up and down over the past week, though with Labor consistently clear favourites to win government. However, expectations of a clear Labor win have significantly moderated on the seat markets since I last updated the Ladbrokes numbers a week ago. Labor are now rated favourites in 76 seats out of 151; the Coalition are favourites in 68 seats; one seat, Capricornia, is evens; and independents and minor parties tipped to win Clark, Melbourne, Mayo, Farrer and Warringah. The Liberals has overtaken Labor to become favourites in Lindsay, Bonner, Boothby and Pearce, and Leichhardt, Braddon and Deakin have gone from evens to favouring the Coalition. Conversely, Bass and Stirling have gone from evens to favouring the Coalition, and Zali Steggall is for the first time favoured to gain Warringah from Tony Abbott. You can find odds listed in the bottom right of each electorate entry on the Poll Bludger election guide.

If you’re after yet more of my words of wisdom on the election, Crikey has lifted its paywall until tomorrow night, and you will find my own articles assembled here. That should be supplemented with my concluding review of the situation later today. You can also listen to a podcast below conducted by Ben Raue of the Tally Room, also featuring Elizabeth Humphrys of UTS Arts and Social Sciences, featuring weighty listening on anti-politics (Humphrys’ speciality) and lighter fare on the state of the election campaign (mine).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,521 comments on “Election minus one day”

  1. Spence
    says:
    Friday, May 17, 2019 at 10:29 pm
    nath – try Others 9. Had a chance to review your misguided view about Senate preferences?
    ___________________________________
    I think HB explained himself pretty well and I agree with him.
    How do you work out the 2pp flow from 9 others? seems like the moe should be greater considering that.

  2. A friend living in Northcote, inner northern suburb of Melbourne, was robocalled by Scott Morrison tonight in support of Nationals candidate in Cowper. Confusion between Cowper and Cooper?

  3. “#Newspoll Federal 2 Party Preferred L/NP 38 (-1) ALP 37 (0) GRN 9 (0) UAP 4 (0) ON 3 (-1) #auspol”

    I get ALP 2PP = 0 + 37 + 7.5 + 1.6 + 1.2 + 4.5 = 51.8

    I think we can use Green preference flow 83% (5/6) to ALP; ON & UAP 40%, others 50%.

  4. Also note that it’s a whopping big sample size, > 3000. Newspoll know that this is the one which will make money for them in the period between elections if they are seen by potential commercial customers to have got this right. Barring some systematic factor that they simply haven’t been able to get a handle on, or a late swing produced by a million voters wanting to make Bob Hawke happy in heaven (or wherever), this will probably be pretty close to how things turn out tomorrow. If the figures are wrong, I suspect that they will have underestimated the swing.

  5. AE. I won’t be surprised if the green prefs are off the scale so maybe add o.5.

    The libs don’t have Malcom offering a fig leaf this time and greens won’t like scomos religion

  6. The Oz states that the polling was completed by midday yesterday – and what happened after midday yesterday? Could there be even a bit more to reveal itself on voting day?

  7. OK. Take a bow!

    Asha Leu
    boatswain1025
    lefty e
    Leroy

    The full list…

    PB-Guess: Newspoll 2019-05-17
    Actual: ALP 51.5 to 48.5 LNP
    Median: ALP 52.0 to 48.0 LNP
    Mode: ALP 52.0 to 48.0 LNP
    Mean: ALP 52.0 to 48.0 LNP
    SD: 1.3
    No. Of PB Respondents: 40

    ALP / LNP
    53 / 47 a r *until the election
    52 / 48 Andrew_Earlwood *all polls
    51.5 / 48.5 Asha Leu
    53 / 47 autocrat *for the duration
    51.5 / 48.5 boatswain1025
    51 / 49 Boerwar
    52.5 / 47.5 Boris
    52 / 48 Burgey
    54 / 46 d-money *all the way to the election
    50 / 50 Damo
    53 / 47 Dan Gulberry *permanent
    52 / 48 Deakin 3rd place 2001
    50.5 / 49.5 Evan
    51 / 49 Expat *all remaining polls before D-Day
    52 / 48 Fozzie Logic *until May 17
    53 / 47 Frednk *permanent
    51 / 49 Geetroit *until the big day
    52 / 48 Goll *until the election
    52 / 48 imacca
    57 / 43 KayJay *all next polls
    50.5 / 49.5 Lars Von Trier
    51.5 / 48.5 Late Riser
    51.5 / 48.5 lefty e
    51.5 / 48.5 Leroy
    52.5 / 47.5 NE Qld
    50 / 50 Nostradamus
    52 / 48 Outsider *Newspoll, ER and Ipsos
    53 / 47 Quasar *perpetuity
    55 / 45 Question *until the election
    52 / 48 Red13 *up to an including 18/5/19
    52 / 48 Roger
    52 / 48 Scott
    52 / 48 Simon² Katich® *eternal
    50.5 / 49.5 Simon² Katich®
    53 / 47 sonar *permanent
    51 / 49 Steve777 *any remains polls before the big day
    50 / 50 Tetsujin *next set of polls
    53 / 47 Tricot *any polls
    51 / 49 Work To Rule *rest of the week
    52 / 48 Zoidlord *polls and final outcome

  8. My dear mum rang up today desperate to see the end of Abbott and Dutton. A former swinging voter – her medicine scholarship came from the Menzies government – she has viewed the Libs with increasing loathing since Howard’s day.

    She’s also noticed Dr Andrew Katelaris, the subject of my failed Archibald portrait The Trial of Dr Pot, is running for the Senate in NSW on the Hemp Party ticket and is going to vote for him. They hit it off when she came to his place with me. For mine I;ll do the same, followed by Labor and the Greens and anyone else acceptable after that.

    Put me down for 90 seats, I think they’ll win comfortably(ALP)

  9. nath – so if a party you support has a local candidate in the Reps who you don’t like you vote informal rather than hold your nose and vote for your preferred party.

  10. If those figures turn out to be correct, the ALP two-party preferred vote on Saturday will be almost exactly the same as its TPPV in the 1974 election exactly 45 years before.

  11. Lefty e, on Paul Murray, markson said approx 2000 of the approx 3000 respondents to Newspoll were contacted after news of Hawke’s death had broken.

  12. Wayne

    “Paul Murray says that the coalition will win tomorrow night by a landslide and says shorten will be dumped by his party”
    ________________________________

    The brain of Wayne lies mainly on the plain.

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