Election minus one day

The latest polling collectively suggests swings to Labor in Victoria and Western Australia, but with way too many close results in prospect for the Coalition to be counted out quite yet.

Update: YouGov Galaxy poll (51-49 to Labor)

The final national YouGov Galaxy poll for the News Corp tabloids has Labor leading 51-49, compared with 52-48 in the previous such poll, which was conducted April 23-25. The Coalition is up twon on the primary vote to 39%, Labor is steady on 37%, the Greens are steady on 9%, and One Nation and the United Australia Party are both down a point to 3%. The poll was conducted Monday to Wednesday from a sample of 1004.

Also, the Cairns Post has a YouGov Galaxy seat poll from Leichhardt which shows LNP member Warren Entsch holding on to a 51-49 lead, from primary votes of LNP 40% (39.5% in 2016), Labor 34% (28.1%), Greens 8% (8.8%), Katter’s Australian Party 7% (4.3%), One Nation 4% (7.5%) and the United Australia Party 5%. The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 634.

BludgerTrack has now been updated with the national YouGov Galaxy result and state breakdowns from Essential Research, which, as has consistently been the case with new polling over the final week, has made no difference observable without a microscope.

Original post

To impose a bit of order on proceedings, I offer the following review of the latest polling and horse race information, separately from the post below for those wishing to discuss the life and legacy of Bob Hawke. As per last night’s post, which appeared almost the exact minute that news of Hawke’s death came through, the Nine Newspapers stable last night brought us the final Ipsos poll of the campaign, pointing to a tight contest: 51-49 on two-party preferred, down from 52-48 a fortnight ago. I can only assume this applies to both previous election and respondent-allocated two-party measures, since none of the reporting suggests otherwise. I have added the result to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, with minimal impact.

We also have new YouGov Galaxy seat polls from The West Australian, conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday, and here too we find tight contests:

Cowan (Labor 0.7%): Labor’s Anne Aly is credited with a lead of 53-47, from primary votes of Labor 42% (41.7% in 2016), Liberal 38% (42.2%), One Nation 5% and United Australia Party 2%. No result provided for the Greens. Sample: 528.

Pearce (Liberal 3.6%): Liberal member Christian Porter leads 51-49, from primary votes of Liberal 42% (45.4% in 2016), Labor 36% (34.3%), Greens 10% (11.0%), United Australia Party 4% and One Nation 3%. Sample: 545.

Swan (Liberal 3.6%): Liberal member Steve Irons is level with Labor candidate Hannah Beazley, from primary votes of Liberal 41% (48.2% in 2016), Labor 38% (33.0%), Greens 9% (15.0%), United Australia Party 5% and One Nation 2%. Sample: 508.

Hasluck (Liberal 2.1%): Liberal member Ken Wyatt is level with Labor candidate James Martin, from primary votes of Liberal 39% (44.9% in 2016), Labor 36% (35.3%), Greens 9% (12.7%), United Australia Party 5% and One Nation 5%. Sample: 501.

Stirling (Liberal 6.1%): Liberal candidate Vince Connelly leads Labor’s Melita Markey 51-49. The only primary votes provided are 2% for One Nation and 1% for the United Australia Party. Sample: 517.

Then there was yesterday’s avalanche of ten YouGov Galaxy polls from the eastern seaboard states in the News Corp papers, for which full results were also provided in last night’s post. Even single one of these produced result inside the polls’ fairly ample 4% margins of error. Labor was only credited with leads in only two, both in New South Wales: of 52-48 in Gilmore (a 0.7% Liberal margin), and 53-47 in Macquarie (a 2.2% Labor margin), the latter being one of only two Labor-held seats covered by the polling. The other, the Queensland seat of Herbert (a 0.0% Labor margin), was one of three showing a dead heat, together with La Trobe (a 3.2% Liberal margin) in Victoria and Forde (a 0.6% LNP margin) in Queensland.

The polls had the Coalition slightly ahead in the Queensland seats of Flynn (a 1.0% LNP margin), by 53-47, and Dickson (a 1.7% LNP margin), by 51-49. In Victoria, the Liberals led in Deakin (a 6.4% Liberal margin), by 51-49, and Higgins (a 7.4% Liberal margin), by 52-48 over the Greens – both consistent with the impression that the state is the government’s biggest headache.

Betting markets have been up and down over the past week, though with Labor consistently clear favourites to win government. However, expectations of a clear Labor win have significantly moderated on the seat markets since I last updated the Ladbrokes numbers a week ago. Labor are now rated favourites in 76 seats out of 151; the Coalition are favourites in 68 seats; one seat, Capricornia, is evens; and independents and minor parties tipped to win Clark, Melbourne, Mayo, Farrer and Warringah. The Liberals has overtaken Labor to become favourites in Lindsay, Bonner, Boothby and Pearce, and Leichhardt, Braddon and Deakin have gone from evens to favouring the Coalition. Conversely, Bass and Stirling have gone from evens to favouring the Coalition, and Zali Steggall is for the first time favoured to gain Warringah from Tony Abbott. You can find odds listed in the bottom right of each electorate entry on the Poll Bludger election guide.

If you’re after yet more of my words of wisdom on the election, Crikey has lifted its paywall until tomorrow night, and you will find my own articles assembled here. That should be supplemented with my concluding review of the situation later today. You can also listen to a podcast below conducted by Ben Raue of the Tally Room, also featuring Elizabeth Humphrys of UTS Arts and Social Sciences, featuring weighty listening on anti-politics (Humphrys’ speciality) and lighter fare on the state of the election campaign (mine).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,521 comments on “Election minus one day”

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  1. Do not forget the only people who remember Hawke are the aging baby boomers…and they are normally the Liberal type voters. His life will mean nothing to the general public except hardened Labor supporters.

    The Baby Boomers who will remember him will at their age be mostly Liberal voters.
    Using Hawke as an election prop will not only seems distasteful to some, but seem totally irrelevant to the majority of the swinging voter public, of the younger generations.

  2. On the other hand Salk, this will also remind people that Labor are the ones that introduced things like Medicare and the Liberals have consistently opposed many reforms introduce by Labor, including Medicare. That includes a lot of ageing and swinging baby boomers.

    Edit: not just opposed but consistently tried to white ant and wind back in every electoral cycle.

    And don’t underestimate the ability of young people to network and to discuss complex issues. There’s going a lot of chatter in the community at all ages and some of it will be about the fact that Labor does better governance whereas the Liberals oppose and wreck.

  3. Btw, William. I remember reading only yesterday an analysis of seat polls that showed a significant bias to Liberal. Was that by you?

  4. Salk,

    You are missing the point. The news coverage today is all about Bob Hawke.

    Any last minute “dirt” that News Corp have on Labor (and they have form in this department) will be completely subsumed in the coverage of the life and times of Robert Hawke.

    The election campaign is effectively over. How that translates to who wins we will see tomorrow night, but with the polls frozen at around 51:49 ALP, they are well and truly the favourites for form government, even if it is by a bare margin.

  5. Also, I want to plug William’s Donation Drive.

    I give a monthly donation, and consider it excellent value for money. Good psephological analysis requires a lot of time and money, and the main stream media is in no way providing this service.

    The crowd-sourced PB hive mind also produces some excellent analysis, with a special shout out to BK and his morning round-up!

    Viewing cartoon corner is the highlight of my morning.

  6. I really like this evidence-based approach to understanding how climate change affects people’s health:

    Labor commits $15m for National Health and Climate Centre at UNSW

    The Centre will be the first in Australia to deliver a national response to the impact of climate change on health:


  7. Sorry for the cross post from the previous thread but

    Last night I received an automated call from Zed Seselja on my mobile phone. He hoped that he could count on my support. I’ve never received such a call before – leads me to question if they are worried about the potential of losing that senate seat but surely not?

    Wishing everyone well! While I’m not certain what the result will be I remain hopeful of a Labor victory.

  8. Itep and Lynchpin,

    Like you I have some hope. Also Kevin Bonham – wish I had saved the tweet – says this is different from 1998, where Howard one the election on seats, but lost the popular vote.

    KB says that in 1998 there was still a strong residual Liberal vote from the 1996 election. In this election he thinks that Labor is more favoured with the undecided voters.

  9. From Alice Workman -Scott Morrison at the National Press Club yesterday:

    "I will burn for you everyday, every single day, so you can achieve your ambitions, your aspirations, your desires," Scott Morrison, NPC. "The hunger for Australia and achieving the aspirations of Australia – it is burning deep within me."— Alice Workman (@workmanalice) May 16, 2019

    What does that even mean???

  10. Also, has anyone seen poll herding of this magnitude in Australia before:

    14 national polls in a row have now had 2PPs in the rage 51-52 2PP. This isn't supposed to happen; they'd better have this right.— Kevin Bonham (@kevinbonham) May 15, 2019

  11. Douglas and Milko says:

    Friday, May 17, 2019 at 4:45 am
    From Alice Workman -Scott Morrison at the National Press Club yesterday:

    “I will burn for you everyday, every single day, so you can achieve your ambitions, your aspirations, your desires,” Scott Morrison, NPC. “The hunger for Australia and achieving the aspirations of Australia – it is burning deep within me.”— Alice Workman (@workmanalice) May 16, 2019

    What does that even mean???

    With all that hunger and inner burning I think it means he has hung out too often at his happy clapper church.

  12. One more sleep!

    Well, 2 more for me, but that means I wake up about 3pm Oz time on Saturday.

    Now realise we need to do our own democracy sausage. Not too much trouble – Germany being the home of the sausage / wurst. But which one to choose?

  13. Front pages were posted last night also.

    I have a picture of Mr. R.J. Hawke prominently in my lounge room. He opened a local Aged Care Facility here in Newcastle many years ago and was photographed with Aunty Eileen.

    A treasured photograph. 😢

    For Douglas & Milko — C’est Si Bon et bonne chance ❗

  14. “I will burn for you everyday, every single day, so you can achieve your ambitions, your aspirations, your desires,” Scott Morrison, NPC. “The hunger for Australia and achieving the aspirations of Australia – it is burning deep within me.”

    What does that even mean???

    Too much chili in his curry?

  15. The Ipsos results suggest pre-polling has been much more favourable to the Liberals (53 2pp) than the general population (49 2pp). If it’s correct – though as posted yesterday Antony Green thought that an across the board trend like this was unlikely – we should be very careful tomorrow night about assuming Labor has it in the bag based on early numbers. In many cases pre-polls may not hit the count until 11ish eastern time.

  16. Do not forget the only people who remember Hawke are the aging baby boomers…

    Bullshit. This is Hawke we’re talking about – not Menzies.

    Gen X grew up with PM Hawke.

  17. Won’t be hearing a bad word about Hawke’s legacy in the next few days.

    A genuinely great man who did so much for the joint. A labor win would be a fitting tribute to a legend.

  18. The Murdoch tabloids have a nationwide YouGov Galaxy, spinning it as much as they can for increased LNP primary. However despite the fiddles, they join the herd

    ALP 51
    LNP 49

  19. I wonder if the formation of a thundering megaherd of Polls is due to them feeling very uncertain of what to make of the numbers they are getting ? All a bit tough for them when so many more primary votes are not for just Labor or Coalition.

  20. Bob Hawke was one of the nations finest Prime Ministers. He was also our best retail politician, ever.
    Bill Shorten choose to pitch his message as a tribute to Whitlam’s Government. It’s Time was a genius slogan. And the Gough Government achieved many things of good. But it will never compare with the Hawke legacy.
    No doubt the pitch will change today. Both Shorten and his opponent will have no choice to talk of Bobs achievements and legacy – but it could well be a bigger plus for Morrison if is is not seen to be campaigning as the country grieves.

  21. max says:
    Friday, May 17, 2019 at 6:16 am
    The Ipsos results suggest pre-polling has been much more favourable to the Liberals (53 2pp)


    There is no way Ipsos would have a clue , on which way the pre-poll is favouring

  22. Good morning Dawn Patrollers – and vale Bob Hawke, a great Australian.

    The papers are full of Hawke tributes but I will only post one, a nice contribution from Tony Wright.
    But as Australia mourned the death of its 23rd prime minister, Tony Abbott drew strong criticism for striking a deeply political tone in his own tribute to Bob Hawke.
    Sam Maiden puts her two bob’s worth in on Abbott’s “tribute”.
    Peter Hartcher looks at the latest Ipsos result and sees a hesitancy in people voting Labor in.
    The Guardian’s editorial says Australia cannot afford three more years of policy held hostage to the hard right of the Liberal party.
    The Coalition’s tactics have paid dividends, according to the election-eve Ipsos poll, but the results need to be treated with the utmost care,says David Crowe.
    Michelle Grattan describes how Shorten channelled Gough Whitlam as he hopes that his time is coming.
    Phil Coorey begins his article today with, “Neither party has appealed to a progressive middle, which wants the environment taken seriously, along with a small-government approach to economic management. For the middle, it’s a case of having to make a choice between which one they value most.”
    Centre Alliance and One Nation are likely to control the Senate balance of power regardless of whether Labor or the Coalition win Saturday’s election, according to an analysis by the Australia Institute. Paul Karp says there is a possibility Palmer could miss out altogether.
    Economist Warwick Smith writes about mineral wealth, Clive Palmer, and the corruption of Australian politics.
    Bill Shorten has long been seen as a drag on Labor’s vote, but a decision he resisted three years ago might have set him up to be the next prime minister, writes Laura Tingle.
    Labor is increasingly confident of prevailing at Saturday’s election, with both Opposition and Coalition figures believing Bill Shorten is on track for a narrow three to four seat majority reports the AFR.
    Paul Karp reports that the Coalition has announced a further $1.5bn in cuts to the public service to pay for its $1.4bn in election promises, a move that could reduce jobs by 3,000.
    Sally Whyte looks at the impact the efficiency dividend would have on the APS.
    Robert Carling from the Centre for Independent Studies says that Labor’s bold tax plans are too bold.
    Anthony Forsyth is a Professor of Workplace Law and contrasts the major parties’ approaches to workplace policy.
    Tony Featherstone says that as more companies outsource work to freelancers, many will lack processes and controls to manage self-employed workers and be exposed to horrendous risk.
    The Grattan Institute’s Danielle Wood explains why there’s no need for renters to fear the negative gearing scare campaign.
    The AFR reports that Macquarie says the most recent figures from the Reserve Bank of Australia indicate that between 2.5 per cent and 3.5 per cent of all bank mortgages by value are in negative equity, but that the figure is almost certainly higher.
    Folau verdict aside, Labor threatens religious freedom in schools, writes a law professor in a journal of Christian thought and opinion.
    Extremely worrying information shows that a third of Australians surveyed in a huge global drug study said they used prescription opioids in the past year, the highest number of all countries surveyed. Globally, half of people using prescription opioids said they took them to get high.
    Challenger’s Jeremy Cooper explains how retirement savings are for spending.
    Emma Koehn explains how Australia’s shopping strips and centres are being crunched by sky-high rents and the nation’s small business commissioners want to penalise landlords for empty shopfronts.
    The Coalition’s botched rollout of the National Broadband Network (NBN) has come at a staggering cost to taxpayers and the nation, leading telecommunications experts have warned before Saturday’s federal poll. The problem-plagued mixed-technology network is yet to be completed, and is running over budget at $51 billion.
    ASIC has stepped up its investigation of Lynas and Wesfarmers demanding the companies hand over documents about their dealings before a proposed $1.5 billion takeover of the miner was made public.
    Nick Miller says Theresa May could have only weeks left as British Prime Minister after agreeing to set out her timetable for stepping down – following one more shot at getting her Brexit deal through Parliament in early June. Of course Boris Johnson has thrown his hat in the ring.
    Martin Kettle writes that The political landscapes of Brexit Britain and Weimar Germany are scarily similar.
    Now Trump has opened up a new front in his tech and trade battle with China writes Matthew Knott.
    Alabama’s abortion ban is about keeping poor women down writes Emma Brockes.
    Another “Arsehole of the Week” nomination for Zanetti.

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe and the final round.

    Cathy Wilcox has been in good form of late.

    From Matt Golding.

    An awful contemplation from Jim Pavlidis.

    From Sean Leahy.

    Alan Moir lines up Angus Taylor.

    At the polling station with Simon Letch.

    I love this one from Jon Kudelka.

    From the US

  23. Nervous

    Crucial election …….vote for selfishness or for investment in the country

    Concerned our country has become selfish

  24. My day yesterday afforded me the chance to drive around a big circle route through the outer reaches of Canberra and the main routes have a quite a few of the LNP Tax attack corflutes and lots of HOR and Senate one’s too. Notably ZED (your senator) seems to think he has the name recognition to just have his first name on his corflutes. I’d love to see him go down.
    Vale Bob, I didn’t realise he was gone till I got home, great man and ScoMo could only hope to have his credibility.
    Labor to win.

  25. Rotten night’s sleep (two small children, one sick). Woken up in a funk, and now feeling like a bed-wetter. Just need it to be over.

  26. Salk, you must be joking about only ‘aging baby boomers’ remembering Hawke? I’m 44, he was elected when I was 8 and it is very clear in my memory. My family was very apolitical, but the news was always on at night, and his reaction to the Cup win, his work with unions, something called an accord which I didn’t yet understand, his family struggles, Medicare… All this made it clear to me that he was ‘the PM’ for the eighties and my childhood. Many people on their mid-40s would have similar memories, and I think you’ll find its our parents who are the boomers. There are at least two generations of Australians who recall the man quite clearly.

    Thanks Hawkey. RIP.

  27. Is this the first time in 125 years that the Sydney Morning Herald editors have endorsed Labor?

    “History will not look kindly on the past decade of Australian politics in which four elected prime ministers have been overthrown by their own parties.

    The knifings of Kevin Rudd, Julia Gillard, Tony Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull have undermined faith in politics, damaged Australia’s international reputation and wasted time that should have been spent dealing with urgent problems such as climate change.”

    The Herald believes that above all else voters must use this election as a chance to put an end to that cycle of instability and with that in mind there is no choice but to endorse Bill Shorten and the ALP.


  28. Salk, in the first post got it wrong. Hawkie converted many of the baby boomers to the Labor cause. Hawke and Keating made many reforms, economic and social. Where they excelled was in taking the public with them and avoiding the impoverishment of workers and the disadvantaged. Go to the UK or US and see the neoliberal policies that were enacted without heart
    Hawke really was an intellectual larrikin, as described by John Singleton ,and this country owes him heaps.

  29. Ladbrokes’ NSW and SA seat odds seem to have gone AWOL, but Sportsbet still have Oakeshott favourite (just) in Cowper, which somehow missed William’s list of seats likely to go Independent according to the bookies.

  30. Well I’m far from an ageing baby boomer, and I certainly remember Hawke. He was PM for the most of my childhood.

  31. poroti

    I feel a bit sorry for pollsters. Many years ago they didn’t even do TPP – just Liberal Country/National and Labor primaries. Then as the vote for these three declined they felt compelled to do TPP by whatever method.

    But now that the Coalition and Labor barely get 75% total it does make it hard, particularly when the minors vary from election to election and state to state.

    So maybe they are all playing it safe and trying to avoid anything too outlandish in their predictions .

  32. This sentence doesn’t make sense:

    The Liberals has overtaken Labor to become favourites in Lindsay, Bonner, Boothby and Pearce, and Leichhardt, Braddon and Deakin have gone from evens to favouring the Coalition. Conversely, Bass and Stirling have gone from evens to favouring the Coalition

    Should the last word be ‘Labor’?

  33. lizzie
    A more than reasonable consideration. The fall in house prices is enough cause for concern, together with the abilty of householders to access personal loans and credit card extensions is all linked.

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