Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor

Ipsos maintains the narrowing trend to the last, as a barrage of seat polls show uniformly tight contests.

The final Ipsos poll for the ex-Fairfax papers records an improvement in the Coalition primary vote and a tightening on two-party preferred, with Labor now leading at 51-49, down from 52-48 a fortnight ago. The Coalition primary vote is at 39%, up three, although this comes at the expense of minor parties rather than Labor, who are steady on 33%. Ipsos continues to look low for Labor and high for the Greens, although the latter are down one to 13%. One Nation is down one to 4%, and the United Australia Party is credited at 3%, in the first result the pollster has produced for the party. The poll includes a breakout for those who have already voted, on which the Coalition interestingly records a lead of 53-47.

The Ipsos preference flow splits both One Nation and United Australia Party preferences 53-47, and while Fairfax’s reportage says this is based on the last election, the One Nation flow in 2016 was actually pretty much 50-50, while the United Australia Party result seems to be speculative. It is similar to the Palmer United Party flow of 53.67-46.33 in 2013, but not quite the same.

On personal ratings, Scott Morrison records a slightly improved result, being up one on approval to 48% and down one on disapproval to 43%, while Bill Shorten’s position improves more substantially, up three on approval to 43% and down three on disapproval to 48%. However, Morrison slightly extends his lead as preferred prime minister, from 45-40 to 47-40. The poll was conducted Sunday to Wednesday from a larger than usual sample of 1842.

Also out today was the following barrage of seat polls from YouGov Galaxy in the News Corp papers, conducted on Monday and Tuesday:

Deakin (Liberal 6.4%, Victoria): Liberals lead 51-49. Primary votes: Liberal 44% (50.3% in 2016), Labor 37% (30.1%), Greens 9% (11.3%) and the United Australia Party 4%. Sample: 540.

Flynn (LNP 1.0%, Queensland): The LNP leads 53-47. Primary votes: LNP 37% (37.1% in 2016), Labor 33% (33.4%), Greens 3% (2.8%), United Australia Party 11%, One Nation 7%. Sample not specified.

Macquarie (Labor 2.2%, NSW): Labor leads 53-47. Primary votes: Labor 43% (35.5% in 2016), Liberal 42% (38.2%), Greens 8% (11.2%), United Australia Party 5%. Sample: 573.

La Trobe (Liberal 3.2%, Victoria): Dead heat on two-party preferred. Primary votes: Liberal 43% (42.2% in 2016), Labor 39% (31.4%), Greens 7% (10.6%), United Australia Party 3%. Sample: 541.

Forde (LNP 0.6%, Queensland): Dead heat on two-party preferred. Primary votes: LNP 42% (40.6% in 2016), Labor 41% (37.6%), Greens 5% (6.4%), One Nation 7%, United Australia Party 4%. Sample: 567.

Reid (Liberal 4.7%, NSW): Liberals lead 52-48. Primary votes: Liberal 44% (48.8% in 2016), Labor 36% (36.3%), Greens 7% (8.5%), United Australia Party 6%. Sample: 577.

Higgins (Liberal 7.4%, Victoria): The Liberals lead 52-48 over the Greens, with Labor running third on the primary vote: Liberal 45% (52.% in 2016), Greens 29% (25.3%), Labor 18% (14.9%). Sample: 538.

Herbert (Labor 0.0%, Queensland): Dead heat on two-party preferred. Primary votes: Labor 31% (30.5% in 2016), LNP 32% (35.5%), Greens 5% (6.3%), One Nation 6% (13.5%), United Australia Party 9%. Sample not specified.

Gilmore (Liberal 0.7%, NSW): Labor leads 52-48. Primary votes: Labor 40% (39.2% in 2016), Liberal 26% (45.3%), Nationals 17% (didn’t run last time, hence the Liberal primary vote collapse), Greens 7% (10.5%), United Australia Party 2%. Sample not specified.

Dickson (LNP 1.7%, Queensland): LNP leads 51-49. Primary votes: LNP 41 (44.7% at 2016 election), Labor 35% (35.0%), Greens 10% (9.8%), United Australia Party 9%, One Nation 3%. Sample: 542.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

490 comments on “Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor”

  1. Confessions @ #438 Friday, May 17th, 2019 – 12:09 am

    Abbott tries redeeming himself for his earlier tweet.

    Tony AbbottVerified account@TonyAbbottMHR
    3h3 hours ago
    Catching up with Bob Hawke in 2015.

    He had the capacity to reach out to everyone across party lines. He was a great Australian. Margie and I extend our deepest sympathies to Blanche and his family.

    ” rel=”nofollow”>:large

    And Hawke appears to be steadfastly refusing to take Abbott’s hand. 🙂

  2. I don’t know the answer to your question.

    I only know the question is inappropriate, insensitive and offensive.

    I hope one day you will work out why.

  3. Take it easy guys. I reckon talking about a mixed political legacy of a deceased politician when they die is fair enough as long as it is done respectfully. They chose a public life after all.

    There are good arguments for Hawke’s legacy being somewhat mixed from a left perspective too. The arguments have been well canvassed on here. You don’t have to agree with them but people have a right to make them (respectfully).

  4. What’s going on in Melbourne? Considering giving my vote to Reason because I don’t like Adam Bandts and I imagine the disendorsed Labor candidate won’t get much of a look in.

  5. Edi was perhaps indelicate but asked what a lot of posters on here have been confidently proclaiming with far greater indelicacy.

  6. Cud Chewer – Makes it’s exciting gets people tuning in on election night, sells papers.

    Actually I know individual seat polling is a joke but when you get a bit of sample size like we have had today you can maybe divine something from them and the average swing looks in line with the nation wide polls maybe even a little higher so you would think it should be a Labor win with a bit of change.

    I have two concerns, firstly at the QLD state election newspoll got the primaries spot on but overshot on the labor 2pp from memory by about 1.2%.

    Labor didn’t end up getting as big a share of the one nation preferences as newspolls models predicted, in fact I think they only got about 30% of one nation preferences.

    Given that a big chunk of the UAP vote seems to coming from one nation 40% might be a bit optimistic as far as one nation uap preferences go. QLD could turn out to be a flop for labor

    The other is Victoria and that a lot of the swing there might get wasted in seats labor either can’t quite win or can’t lose.

    At every election bar the last two since 1996 I have heard bold predictions that Labor will win a swag of seats in Victoria but it always seems to underwhelm on the night.

    Labor should win but the path to victory for the liberals is not impossible,the most plausible one being the polls are wrong like they were in the recent state elections.

    I think that is much less likely at a federal election where people take a greater interest and the percentage deciding very late because they more or less forgot it was even election day is probably much lower .

    Also I suspect the rusted on 2pp of the two parties would be a bit higher in federal elections, state elections are a bit more volatile because some people will vote labor at state level but never ever federally and vice versa.

  7. Lucky Creed
    says:
    At every election bar the last two since 1996 I have heard bold predictions that Labor will win a swag of seats in Victoria but it always seems to underwhelm on the night.
    _____________________________________________
    I believe I am correct in saying that the ALP won every 2pp vote in Victoria during the Howard era except for 2004. The ALP even won the 2pp vote in Victoria in 1996. So, sticking to Keating’s Agenda. 2004 was clearly different as Victorian could sense a lunatic. Smart people Victorians, the best kind of Australians. Just ask us. We’ll tell ya.

  8. I’m sure someone else has already done this, but the swings away from the Coalition in those ten Newspolls add to

    5.4-2+0.8+3.2+0.6+2.7+5.4(greens)+0+2.7+0.7=18.7

    Average to 1.87 away from Coalition. (yes I know Higgins complicates it)

    Coalition TPP 2016 = 50.36 v 49.64

    Take away 1.87 = TPP Coalition 48.49 v 51.51 Labor

    Remarkably close to Bludgertrack’s 48.6 v 51.4 !

    And yes the Newspolls were all integers, but ‘swings and roundabouts’.

    So maybe they all reflect that same swing across Australia – with some overs and some unders.

  9. Victoria is different. If we could secede I would be a very happy man, as we would have a very progressive future, the rest of the country is dragging us down.

  10. Clem Attlee
    says:
    Friday, May 17, 2019 at 12:49 am
    Victoria is different. If we could secede I would be a very happy man, as we would have a very progressive future, the rest of the country is dragging us down.
    _____________________________
    So true. I would be willing to secede with Tasmania as our rural fiefdom where Victorians could dress up in Medieval costume. Like a giant Medieval ‘Westworld’.

  11. WA would be sending food parcels, and SA printing ration coupons for Victoria within 12 months of the declaration of independence, Clem!

  12. Lucky Creed says:
    Thursday, May 16, 2019 at 11:56 pm

    MS CAT I don’t do the cult of personality thing, he was a prominent figure who changed the country, in my opinion his legacy was a mixed one.

    I never knew him so I am not saddened by his death in the way I am saddened by the recent death of my father , I think people who mourn over the death of people they never even knew are just attention seekers and or neurotic.

    Probably best to stfu now and come back in a few days if you want to make your point. 🙂

  13. Good night all. I am glad that the last day of campaigning will have massive media coverage of Bob Hawke and his reforming Labor government.

    And Saturday is the 45th anniversary of the May 18th 1974 Double Dissolution election that led to Medibank being introduced, which after being destroyed by Fraser and the Coalition was revived as Medicare by Hawke after the 1983 election.

    Probably Labor’s single greatest contribution to Australia since they were first re-elected in 1972 after 23 years in opposition.

  14. Rocket Rocket
    says:
    Friday, May 17, 2019 at 1:00 am
    nath
    Surely we’d be in ‘Victorian’ era clothes?
    ____________________________
    The options are endless. We may need to include South Australia as well. Not that we really want to, just to secure the wine.

  15. Rocket
    Who would have thought there would be serious discussion in the media about policies and outcomes 48 hours before an election?

  16. Yeh but Labor never seems to gain quite the number of seats down there that everyone is predicting.

    NSW is looking shit, QLD who knows, but my gut tells me it could be a few hundred votes in a cluster of seats between a dream and a nightmare,it’s always nerve jangling when you are relying on contrarian preferences from right wing nationalists parties, I’ve given up on WA ever producing anything again in my lifetime so Victoria is going to need to produce some actual seats.

  17. Sharp, with a marvellous strategic political mind, and concealing a first class intellect behind that friendly and ‘good bloke’ exterior, he was wonderful and warm company,

    Something Scomo is attempting to fake.

  18. Roger Miller

    I hope Medicare really gets a lot of attention tomorrow – no-one under 47 voted for Hawke so they won’t have the same visceral connection. But that Medicare card is a precious icon.

    And a great tribute to both Whitlam and Hawke.

  19. Lucky Creed – three definites (one notionally Labor already)

    Chisholm
    La Trobe
    Dunkley

    Corangamite – big population shifts compared to some seats so a bit of an unknown.

    Deakin – very close

    Casey, Flinders – I don’t feel as confident as Deakin

    Higgins – Greens will likely beat Labor into 2nd and then go very close to winning.

  20. It will be an interesting day tomorrow.

    Bob’s passing has probably rewritten a number of papers over the last several hours.

    I think you will see Labor using his legacy to highlight the things they want to achieve.

    I don’t see a problem with them doing so and I wouldn’t imagine the man himself would if it helped the cause and a Labor victory.

    Maybe some t-shirts and posters simply branded,

    For Bob! 🙂

  21. Barney Why what are you gonna do? Track me down and beat me up, it’s an internet forum not a public bar. Don’t worry sunshine In a few days time I will be gone and you will not hear from me until the next election rolls around (if I am still alive).
    Until then it is up to the moderators whether they choose to post my opinions not you,so don’t tell me what I can and can’t comment on.

  22. Edi_Mahin:

    Will Bob Hawke’s death help Labor win the election?

    Mr Hawke’s life and (now) his legacy will help Labor win many elections

  23. Lucky Creed says:
    Friday, May 17, 2019 at 1:26 am

    Barney Why what are you gonna do? Track me down and beat me up, it’s an internet forum not a public bar. Don’t worry sunshine In a few days time I will be gone and you will not hear from me until the next election rolls around (if I am still alive).
    Until then it is up to the moderators whether they choose to post my opinions not you,so don’t tell me what I can and can’t comment on.

    No threat, just a suggestion!

    Common decency and respect, I think it’s called. 🙂

  24. Using Bob Hawke’s death for electioneering could well backfire and be seen as distasteful and lowlife.

    Morrison will be probably offer a State funeral in remembrance of a great man etc…even though it is a caretaker period. Hawke was probably closer to the Libs than today’s Labor. What it will be is a total distraction from the Election, and that is ‘break the gaze’ of the voter, and you may see some reset of the nostalgia kind… lets not change things too much. People don’t like change unless there is a compelling movement or a cult following.

    Neither Shorten or Morrison are in the slightest bit interesting or compelling. Its like the choice between brown and tan. I understand that to the hardened Labor supporter Shorten is somehow wonderful.
    Labor with an ‘apparent’ advantage will snatch defeat from victory through their use of Hawke’s death?

  25. Do not forget the only people who remember Hawke are the aging baby boomers…and they are normally the Liberal type voters.

  26. Last night I received an automated call from Zed Seselja on my mobile phone. He hoped that he could count on my support. I’ve never received such a call before – leads me to question if they are worried about the potential of losing that senate seat but surely not?

  27. “We may need to include South Australia as well. Not that we really want to, just to secure the wine.”

    I was about to suggest something along those lines myself. I suggest Victoria secedes along with the whole of Tasmania, but just take the south eastern section of South Australia. The desert-y remnant can be added to the Northern Territory or Western Australia or whatever.

    A glorious future awaits!

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