Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor

Ipsos maintains the narrowing trend to the last, as a barrage of seat polls show uniformly tight contests.

The final Ipsos poll for the ex-Fairfax papers records an improvement in the Coalition primary vote and a tightening on two-party preferred, with Labor now leading at 51-49, down from 52-48 a fortnight ago. The Coalition primary vote is at 39%, up three, although this comes at the expense of minor parties rather than Labor, who are steady on 33%. Ipsos continues to look low for Labor and high for the Greens, although the latter are down one to 13%. One Nation is down one to 4%, and the United Australia Party is credited at 3%, in the first result the pollster has produced for the party. The poll includes a breakout for those who have already voted, on which the Coalition interestingly records a lead of 53-47.

The Ipsos preference flow splits both One Nation and United Australia Party preferences 53-47, and while Fairfax’s reportage says this is based on the last election, the One Nation flow in 2016 was actually pretty much 50-50, while the United Australia Party result seems to be speculative. It is similar to the Palmer United Party flow of 53.67-46.33 in 2013, but not quite the same.

On personal ratings, Scott Morrison records a slightly improved result, being up one on approval to 48% and down one on disapproval to 43%, while Bill Shorten’s position improves more substantially, up three on approval to 43% and down three on disapproval to 48%. However, Morrison slightly extends his lead as preferred prime minister, from 45-40 to 47-40. The poll was conducted Sunday to Wednesday from a larger than usual sample of 1842.

Also out today was the following barrage of seat polls from YouGov Galaxy in the News Corp papers, conducted on Monday and Tuesday:

Deakin (Liberal 6.4%, Victoria): Liberals lead 51-49. Primary votes: Liberal 44% (50.3% in 2016), Labor 37% (30.1%), Greens 9% (11.3%) and the United Australia Party 4%. Sample: 540.

Flynn (LNP 1.0%, Queensland): The LNP leads 53-47. Primary votes: LNP 37% (37.1% in 2016), Labor 33% (33.4%), Greens 3% (2.8%), United Australia Party 11%, One Nation 7%. Sample not specified.

Macquarie (Labor 2.2%, NSW): Labor leads 53-47. Primary votes: Labor 43% (35.5% in 2016), Liberal 42% (38.2%), Greens 8% (11.2%), United Australia Party 5%. Sample: 573.

La Trobe (Liberal 3.2%, Victoria): Dead heat on two-party preferred. Primary votes: Liberal 43% (42.2% in 2016), Labor 39% (31.4%), Greens 7% (10.6%), United Australia Party 3%. Sample: 541.

Forde (LNP 0.6%, Queensland): Dead heat on two-party preferred. Primary votes: LNP 42% (40.6% in 2016), Labor 41% (37.6%), Greens 5% (6.4%), One Nation 7%, United Australia Party 4%. Sample: 567.

Reid (Liberal 4.7%, NSW): Liberals lead 52-48. Primary votes: Liberal 44% (48.8% in 2016), Labor 36% (36.3%), Greens 7% (8.5%), United Australia Party 6%. Sample: 577.

Higgins (Liberal 7.4%, Victoria): The Liberals lead 52-48 over the Greens, with Labor running third on the primary vote: Liberal 45% (52.% in 2016), Greens 29% (25.3%), Labor 18% (14.9%). Sample: 538.

Herbert (Labor 0.0%, Queensland): Dead heat on two-party preferred. Primary votes: Labor 31% (30.5% in 2016), LNP 32% (35.5%), Greens 5% (6.3%), One Nation 6% (13.5%), United Australia Party 9%. Sample not specified.

Gilmore (Liberal 0.7%, NSW): Labor leads 52-48. Primary votes: Labor 40% (39.2% in 2016), Liberal 26% (45.3%), Nationals 17% (didn’t run last time, hence the Liberal primary vote collapse), Greens 7% (10.5%), United Australia Party 2%. Sample not specified.

Dickson (LNP 1.7%, Queensland): LNP leads 51-49. Primary votes: LNP 41 (44.7% at 2016 election), Labor 35% (35.0%), Greens 10% (9.8%), United Australia Party 9%, One Nation 3%. Sample: 542.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

490 comments on “Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. Bob always had great timing. I love that the last day of the campaign is going to be about the Hawke-labor legacy of opening the economy while looking after workers and the Hawke-keating vision of of a ‘clever country’ where people got the training and education they needed to so their best. they killed inflation and set up superannuation that generates trillions to be invested mostly in Australia every year. the hailing of labor as great economic managers and ushering in modern asutralia will be sweet to watch. I wasn’t always a fan of privitisations, but in hindsight it was great it was to live in a progressive country. Australia has gobe so far backways since 1996 – with shortens victory, hopefully, we’ll be able to look back and call them the lost decades.

    No amount of electioneering is going be heard tomorrow.

    Out down the binnoculars – it’s time to call the election

  2. “Dear Liberals – stop saying the Coalition supported Hawke’s reforms.
    You didn’t support Medicare – Howard promised to gut it.
    You didn’t support compulsory super — you spent decades undermining it.
    Ditto tax reform, family payments, industrial relations protections.”

    More to the point: the Hawke Keating economic reforms were not an end in themselves, they were about obtaining the means to fund Labor’s ends – the sustainable rollout of the Whitlam program, plus a bunch of other new ideas along the way. That’s something that the ‘black arm band of socialism brigade’ that have slithered onto here tonight won’t ever grasp.

  3. Bob Hawke gleamed. He was a moving radiator in a grey suit, with silver hair and a mahogany tan, and an unmistakeable sense of purpose. He seemed to be able to both gather the crowd around him and then part it at will; not so much walking through the throng as being carried by them.

    He had a physical shine that I’ve seen just the once. Maybe it was the sheen of power or the aura of self-belief. Whatever it was, Hawke had it in 1984 in the old Perth Trades Hall, campaigning.

    I saw him again at a brief reception after the launch of Labor’s 2017 State campaign. He still had the heat then too. He was a sensational figure. Remarkable. He was much larger than life.

  4. “Australian Unions just put the original Medicare ad featuring Bob Hawke, up on Twitter.”

    I’ve hunted down and posted it 10 times already in the comments section under the Lieberals Facebook ads. And counting.

  5. The Fraser Government stopped Universal health cover known as Medibank (which had been introduced under Whitlam). In 1976 the Liberals commenced Medibank Private as a not-for-profit private health insurer under the Health Insurance Commission.
    When Hawke came to power he was committed to bringing back Universal health cover but it was recreated with the new name Medicare because Medibank Private was so well established.

  6. All those praising Whitlam and criticising the Hawke/Keating governments as being neoliberal seem to have forgotten that Whitlam also cut tarrifs.

  7. Qld seats in play not polled: Capricornia, Leichhardt, Petrie. Possibly Dawson…maybe Adani not biting as expected with Herbert neck and neck.

  8. I’ve been told Ipsos have a problem with getting women under 35, who largely won’t answer calls to their mobile phones from unknown numbers. However they are making up the difference in that demographic, scaling from the few who answer or whatever, skews the cohort Green, whereas in reality a higher proportion vote Labor. Other pollsters like Newspoll supplement their landline calls with online polling, and Essential is all online, and they don’t have problems getting women under 35. That tip came to from someone familiar with internal polling for the ACTU, and who seems to know what other polling outfits are doing. Take it for the second hand info it is, but I believe it.

  9. I do find it strange that the seat polls released aren’t scattering the way you’d expect. Its all very close to 50/50. Suspiciously so. The way you bring that about of course is to be selective.

  10. Leroy
    Essential is all online

    Would this allow Essential to gather accurate data for seat polling at every poll they do due to use of IP address giving precise location of respondents?

  11. Leroy

    I believe it, and I think the ‘weighting’ of young people’s votes (from the relatively few they poll compared to other demographics) explains the wild swings we see in the Greens vote in lots of pollsters.

  12. Vale Bob Hawke – first politician I remember.

    On to polling – does anyone feel manipulated by News Corp’s staged release of Galaxy Polls today?

    What a load of bollocks. How many seat polls do you think they actually did? And why release these particular ones in that pathetic melodramatic way.

    Absolutely meaningless drivel (but we all watched no doubt).

  13. ausdavo @ #406 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 11:41 pm

    The Fraser Government stopped Universal health cover known as Medibank (which had been introduced under Whitlam). In 1976 the Liberals commenced Medibank Private as a not-for-profit private health insurer under the Health Insurance Commission.
    When Hawke came to power he was committed to bringing back Universal health cover but it was recreated with the new name Medicare because Medibank Private was so well established.

    Yes, that’s right. 🙂

  14. MS CAT I don’t do the cult of personality thing, he was a prominent figure who changed the country, in my opinion his legacy was a mixed one.

    I never knew him so I am not saddened by his death in the way I am saddened by the recent death of my father , I think people who mourn over the death of people they never even knew are just attention seekers and or neurotic.

  15. JQ its a deliberate tactic.

    There are a significant number of undecided voters who will tend to vote on the perception of who will win. Some don’t like the idea of a minority government, but most are just being herd animals.

    That’s why the campaign to make it look closer than it is. The hourly drip is just there to get attention. Its also pretty clear there are other seat polls they’ve chosen not to release.

    This is why we need an open, independent poll. Even a publicly funded one.

  16. Don’t Essential have an Australia wide panel (2000 – 3000 rings a bell) from which they select their respondents on a random basis for each poll?

    If so, how could they conduct seat polling?

    Do they?

  17. Presumably we will see a Newspoll tomorrow night for Saturday’s Oz.

    I thought they had previously published the last Newspoll before the election on the Friday for maximum exposure.

  18. Sceptic nope, geoip data doesn’t really work that way in practice.
    You’ll find a lot of the time IP ‘locations’ resolve only to the nearest major city where an ISPs PoP is
    I currently resolve to Sydney, despite being in Tasmania

  19. “All those praising Whitlam and criticising the Hawke/Keating governments as being neoliberal seem to have forgotten that Whitlam also cut tarrifs.”

    Oh wait. You mean there might be some unifying socio-economic political philosophy that ties the Whitlam program in with the Hawke Keating Government? Amazeballs.

    Of course, facepalm, any government not fully woke to MMT, full nationalisation of industry, regulating every other facet of life is clearly when viewed through sepia glass rear view, ‘neo liberal’: Boo.

    He’s a fun fact: the left – progenitors of the slime that have creep on here tonight no doubt – tried to kick Gough out of the party that he was leading. Twice. The other fun fact is that the left never fell in love with Gough until he was sacked. Then their love of a martyr and political failure transcended their own memories of Gough putting them to the sword in the late 1960s. No wonder their scion are s confused as to history today.

  20. “Don’t Essential have an Australia wide panel (2000 – 3000 rings a bell)”
    I thought they had a pool of 10,000 to select from, but might only use 2000.

  21. Labor people. Don’t let Bob’s passing make you bereft.

    Let Bob and his legacy give you a fire in the belly and strength to your arm. We have two days left to fight the Tories. Two days left to win it for Bob – and for all of us.

    To everyone handing out, making calls and knocking on doors for Labor – you’re the fucking best. Work hard comrades and let’s celebrate on Saturday night.

  22. With the passing of Bob Hawke now going to dominate the both old-school news and new-school social media discussion for Friday at least, the election campaign is now over. And Bob and his legacy get the last word before polling day.

    I’ll drink to that.

  23. Zeh
    Once had conversation with a software distributor re use of pirated software, he said people would be surprised at how close they can get identifying location using IP address. The software in question needed to “login”online for full functionality. I guess he may have been boasting

  24. Abbott tries redeeming himself for his earlier tweet.

    Tony AbbottVerified account@TonyAbbottMHR
    3h3 hours ago
    Catching up with Bob Hawke in 2015.

    He had the capacity to reach out to everyone across party lines. He was a great Australian. Margie and I extend our deepest sympathies to Blanche and his family.


  25. For all the intellect and communication ability, Hawke (and Keating) still had courage and imagination. They tackled the big issues head on.

    So I would say to Shorten, tomorrow, stick to your guns! Climate change action is needed, and Labor must do it, because the Greens can’t and the Liberals never will. Tax reform is also needed in Australia, to make it fairer, to get the economy moving again, and to pay for the services we need. Otherwise it is another three years of death by a thousand cuts.

  26. William Bowe @ #429 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 10:01 pm

    I see that’s been done already. As you were.

    Perhaps you should’ve gone with this one:

    Prime Minister Scott Morrison has released a statement in the wake of Hawke’s passing, reading “Fuck, fuckity fuck fuck fuck!”

    “Fucking fuck!” it went on to say, “We nearly had it in the bag. FUCK! But of course we’re thinking of Bob’s family in this time of grieving.”


  27. Confessions

    True re Abbott. But you saw the real Abbott in the first mean spirited tweet. It was off the cuff and what Abbott really thought, before a media minder helped him craft a more acceptable message.

    Night all. New government in 48 hrs.

  28. Cud chewer. 11:56
    Don’t sweat the small stuff. We do have an open, independent poll. And never mind the top of the hour drip. This one’s being released in a 4 hour variety show Saturday night.

  29. “True re Abbott. But you saw the real Abbott in the first mean spirited tweet. It was off the cuff and what Abbott really thought, before a media minder helped him craft a more acceptable message.”

    Tweet? It was on letterhead. Those were is considered thoughts.

  30. AE

    Thanks I did not realise that re Abbott. Anyway it only proves further the first one was Abbott’s real reaction.

  31. I sort of knew this but in the raw emotion tonight it crystallized. There is a courage very few have, to allow the private and personal to become public and political. My respect to you. (And good night.)

  32. Cud Chewer says:
    Thursday, May 16, 2019 at 11:56 pm

    I like the idea of banning them altogether (sorry William).

    Wonder what effect that would have…

  33. Reckon you would back Labor’s ground game to run down a few of those line ball seats in the last 48 hours too. Now with Hawkie leaving us I reckon shows over.

    (actually I said that last week – just with more conviction now)

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