Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor

Ipsos maintains the narrowing trend to the last, as a barrage of seat polls show uniformly tight contests.

The final Ipsos poll for the ex-Fairfax papers records an improvement in the Coalition primary vote and a tightening on two-party preferred, with Labor now leading at 51-49, down from 52-48 a fortnight ago. The Coalition primary vote is at 39%, up three, although this comes at the expense of minor parties rather than Labor, who are steady on 33%. Ipsos continues to look low for Labor and high for the Greens, although the latter are down one to 13%. One Nation is down one to 4%, and the United Australia Party is credited at 3%, in the first result the pollster has produced for the party. The poll includes a breakout for those who have already voted, on which the Coalition interestingly records a lead of 53-47.

The Ipsos preference flow splits both One Nation and United Australia Party preferences 53-47, and while Fairfax’s reportage says this is based on the last election, the One Nation flow in 2016 was actually pretty much 50-50, while the United Australia Party result seems to be speculative. It is similar to the Palmer United Party flow of 53.67-46.33 in 2013, but not quite the same.

On personal ratings, Scott Morrison records a slightly improved result, being up one on approval to 48% and down one on disapproval to 43%, while Bill Shorten’s position improves more substantially, up three on approval to 43% and down three on disapproval to 48%. However, Morrison slightly extends his lead as preferred prime minister, from 45-40 to 47-40. The poll was conducted Sunday to Wednesday from a larger than usual sample of 1842.

Also out today was the following barrage of seat polls from YouGov Galaxy in the News Corp papers, conducted on Monday and Tuesday:

Deakin (Liberal 6.4%, Victoria): Liberals lead 51-49. Primary votes: Liberal 44% (50.3% in 2016), Labor 37% (30.1%), Greens 9% (11.3%) and the United Australia Party 4%. Sample: 540.

Flynn (LNP 1.0%, Queensland): The LNP leads 53-47. Primary votes: LNP 37% (37.1% in 2016), Labor 33% (33.4%), Greens 3% (2.8%), United Australia Party 11%, One Nation 7%. Sample not specified.

Macquarie (Labor 2.2%, NSW): Labor leads 53-47. Primary votes: Labor 43% (35.5% in 2016), Liberal 42% (38.2%), Greens 8% (11.2%), United Australia Party 5%. Sample: 573.

La Trobe (Liberal 3.2%, Victoria): Dead heat on two-party preferred. Primary votes: Liberal 43% (42.2% in 2016), Labor 39% (31.4%), Greens 7% (10.6%), United Australia Party 3%. Sample: 541.

Forde (LNP 0.6%, Queensland): Dead heat on two-party preferred. Primary votes: LNP 42% (40.6% in 2016), Labor 41% (37.6%), Greens 5% (6.4%), One Nation 7%, United Australia Party 4%. Sample: 567.

Reid (Liberal 4.7%, NSW): Liberals lead 52-48. Primary votes: Liberal 44% (48.8% in 2016), Labor 36% (36.3%), Greens 7% (8.5%), United Australia Party 6%. Sample: 577.

Higgins (Liberal 7.4%, Victoria): The Liberals lead 52-48 over the Greens, with Labor running third on the primary vote: Liberal 45% (52.% in 2016), Greens 29% (25.3%), Labor 18% (14.9%). Sample: 538.

Herbert (Labor 0.0%, Queensland): Dead heat on two-party preferred. Primary votes: Labor 31% (30.5% in 2016), LNP 32% (35.5%), Greens 5% (6.3%), One Nation 6% (13.5%), United Australia Party 9%. Sample not specified.

Gilmore (Liberal 0.7%, NSW): Labor leads 52-48. Primary votes: Labor 40% (39.2% in 2016), Liberal 26% (45.3%), Nationals 17% (didn’t run last time, hence the Liberal primary vote collapse), Greens 7% (10.5%), United Australia Party 2%. Sample not specified.

Dickson (LNP 1.7%, Queensland): LNP leads 51-49. Primary votes: LNP 41 (44.7% at 2016 election), Labor 35% (35.0%), Greens 10% (9.8%), United Australia Party 9%, One Nation 3%. Sample: 542.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

490 comments on “Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. Greg JerichoVerified account@GrogsGamut
    2m2 minutes ago
    There has never been a time in my life that Bob Hawke was not a public figure of immense weight

    Me too!

  2. Vale Bob Hawke.

    Perhaps the most transformative PM of the post-war era. (Gough’s reforms having been largely undone by Fraser’s mob).

    Two days before the election.

  3. Sad that Bob couldn’t hang on for another couple of days. 🙁

    Thanks for showing us what good government looks like.


  4. As I wrote on the previous thread:

    Vale RJL Hawke(MHSRIP), May Australia Honor his memory this Saturday by forever despatching the era of the small and mean Australia era that was initiated by the small and mean John Howard

  5. Imagine if a little refresher course in Labor government in the form of eulogies for Bob sway swinging voters who wouldn’t otherwise have had a clue.
    Has Bob timed this to perfection?

  6. The first election I was allowed to vote in was the one that saw Labor swept to power in 1983.

    This is truly sad news. As I type this there are tears streaming down my face.


  7. Very sad news about Bob Hawke. He was my first PM (and I remember it!) and I’ve had the pleasure, multiple times, of seeing him speak in person (although I was too shy to try and get a handshake or a hello.)

    RIP, vale etc.

  8. “Vale RJL Hawke(MHSRIP), May Australia Honor his memory this Saturday by forever despatching the era of the small and mean Australia … initiated by the small and mean John Howard”

    That deserves a wide circulation.

  9. Argh what sad news. Vale Bob Hawke. A true giant of Australian politics. Your like will never grace us again.

    Out of respect I’m choosing to not post for the remainder of today. Best wishes to you all.

  10. “The first election I was allowed to vote in was the one that saw Labor swept to power in 1983.”

    My first election was the one that saw Labor swept to power in 1972. Haven’t done so well with elections lately…

  11. I have no memories of Hawke’s time as PM (I would have been three years old when Keating took over), but I’ve always had a lot of respect and admiration for the man.

  12. What a wretched omen for Shorten.
    As far as Labor leaders go, Hawke wasn’t bad. My thoughts and prayers are with his family. It is the end of an era for viable Labor.

  13. I remember handing out HTV cards for the ALP in 1983 and our catchcry was “Give Bob the Job”.

    He was a giant amongst pygmies.

    Vale, Bob, and thanks for all you did to transform Australia to the modern economy we currently enjoy (notwithstanding the wrecking from the current crop of cowboys).

  14. Vale Bob, A man for the people and a great inspiration.

    Here’s my prediction for the ALP on Saturday to bring social justice back in from the cold…

    A reasonable Assessment based on this site…
    Present situation:
    ALP 72 seats
    LNP 73 seats
    Ind 6 seats

    ALP might lose Herbert QLD, Lindsay NSW, Braddon Tas
    puts the ALP at 69, LNP 76
    LNP may lose Gilmore, Reid and Robertson in NSW
    LNP may lose Chisholm, La Trobe in Vistoria
    LNP may lose Forde, Petrie, Dickson in QLD
    LNP may lose Swan, Hasluck, Stirling in WA
    All these combined would see the ALP on 80, LNP on 65
    The LNP regain Independents Indi Vic, Wentworth NSW but lose Cowper NSW

    so ALP 80, LNP 66, Indies 5

    3 of the LNP seats are on the knife edge Deakin VIC,Flynn QLD, Capricornia QLD

    There are at least another 10 LNP seats where they could lose if the polling is only understating the good guys by 1 or 2 %.

    A last Victorian election type understatement could really send seats tumbling.

    Here’s to a victorious ALP especially for Bob.

  15. RIP Bob Hawke.

    On the Ipsos thing about people who’ve already voted trending more Liberal than the overall sample – the Vic election had that too IIRC (to no detriment to Labor, obviously). It probably takes into account postal voters too in Ipsos’ case, plus the fact that most of the heavily early voting seats are rural/regional. It’s not a worry.

    The smoothed polling of the last 3 years is either going to pass another test or come a major cropper one way or another. I’ve never seen a satisfactory explanation for what they got wrong in Victoria 2018.

  16. Nostradamus, that’s really a tasteless comment of yours, especially when a lot of Labor people are grieving right now.

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