The final Ipsos poll for the ex-Fairfax papers records an improvement in the Coalition primary vote and a tightening on two-party preferred, with Labor now leading at 51-49, down from 52-48 a fortnight ago. The Coalition primary vote is at 39%, up three, although this comes at the expense of minor parties rather than Labor, who are steady on 33%. Ipsos continues to look low for Labor and high for the Greens, although the latter are down one to 13%. One Nation is down one to 4%, and the United Australia Party is credited at 3%, in the first result the pollster has produced for the party. The poll includes a breakout for those who have already voted, on which the Coalition interestingly records a lead of 53-47.
The Ipsos preference flow splits both One Nation and United Australia Party preferences 53-47, and while Fairfax’s reportage says this is based on the last election, the One Nation flow in 2016 was actually pretty much 50-50, while the United Australia Party result seems to be speculative. It is similar to the Palmer United Party flow of 53.67-46.33 in 2013, but not quite the same.
On personal ratings, Scott Morrison records a slightly improved result, being up one on approval to 48% and down one on disapproval to 43%, while Bill Shorten’s position improves more substantially, up three on approval to 43% and down three on disapproval to 48%. However, Morrison slightly extends his lead as preferred prime minister, from 45-40 to 47-40. The poll was conducted Sunday to Wednesday from a larger than usual sample of 1842.
Also out today was the following barrage of seat polls from YouGov Galaxy in the News Corp papers, conducted on Monday and Tuesday:
Deakin (Liberal 6.4%, Victoria): Liberals lead 51-49. Primary votes: Liberal 44% (50.3% in 2016), Labor 37% (30.1%), Greens 9% (11.3%) and the United Australia Party 4%. Sample: 540.
Flynn (LNP 1.0%, Queensland): The LNP leads 53-47. Primary votes: LNP 37% (37.1% in 2016), Labor 33% (33.4%), Greens 3% (2.8%), United Australia Party 11%, One Nation 7%. Sample not specified.
Macquarie (Labor 2.2%, NSW): Labor leads 53-47. Primary votes: Labor 43% (35.5% in 2016), Liberal 42% (38.2%), Greens 8% (11.2%), United Australia Party 5%. Sample: 573.
La Trobe (Liberal 3.2%, Victoria): Dead heat on two-party preferred. Primary votes: Liberal 43% (42.2% in 2016), Labor 39% (31.4%), Greens 7% (10.6%), United Australia Party 3%. Sample: 541.
Forde (LNP 0.6%, Queensland): Dead heat on two-party preferred. Primary votes: LNP 42% (40.6% in 2016), Labor 41% (37.6%), Greens 5% (6.4%), One Nation 7%, United Australia Party 4%. Sample: 567.
Reid (Liberal 4.7%, NSW): Liberals lead 52-48. Primary votes: Liberal 44% (48.8% in 2016), Labor 36% (36.3%), Greens 7% (8.5%), United Australia Party 6%. Sample: 577.
Higgins (Liberal 7.4%, Victoria): The Liberals lead 52-48 over the Greens, with Labor running third on the primary vote: Liberal 45% (52.% in 2016), Greens 29% (25.3%), Labor 18% (14.9%). Sample: 538.
Herbert (Labor 0.0%, Queensland): Dead heat on two-party preferred. Primary votes: Labor 31% (30.5% in 2016), LNP 32% (35.5%), Greens 5% (6.3%), One Nation 6% (13.5%), United Australia Party 9%. Sample not specified.
Gilmore (Liberal 0.7%, NSW): Labor leads 52-48. Primary votes: Labor 40% (39.2% in 2016), Liberal 26% (45.3%), Nationals 17% (didn’t run last time, hence the Liberal primary vote collapse), Greens 7% (10.5%), United Australia Party 2%. Sample not specified.
Dickson (LNP 1.7%, Queensland): LNP leads 51-49. Primary votes: LNP 41 (44.7% at 2016 election), Labor 35% (35.0%), Greens 10% (9.8%), United Australia Party 9%, One Nation 3%. Sample: 542.
I am impressed by Labor today. They would have known this was not far away.
Not a leak. Not a sign.
Just determined campaigning. News breaking while Mr Shorten is on air.
Shorten and Morrison are chalk and cheese.
Morrison: Shouty, talks over Sales, doesn’t answer the question and gives flaky, folksy platitudes.
Shorten: Not shouty, addresses the question, doesn’t talk over the host and doesn’t give trite responses.
“I’m running for PM, not 7.30 compere.”
ZINGER!
RIP Hawkey, Sad day.
Nostradamus just sad.
@russellcrowe
Bob Hawke has died.
A great man who made this country confident.
A great man who never lost his humility.
Guinness book of records 1954 , 2.5 pints of beer in 11 seconds.
Rhodes Scholar.
Trade Union Leader.
Prime Minister.
Statesman.
Thanks for everything Mr Hawke.
Re Dickson in seat polls, Coal primary is down 3.7% on 2016. Lab unchanged on 35., and Green up from 9.8 to 10. Others in 2016 were Family First 4.2 Lib Dem 2.8 and Oth 3.4 . Assuming Green prefs went 80% to Labor all Other prefs went 52.5% to Labor.
Poll has 9 to UAP, 3 to ON 2 to Oth. Allocating prefs as per last election gives 50.35 to Labor.
All academic, of course, since poll accuracy is highly suspect. Let’s hope its another Longman by-election type result.
Yep it’s fair to say Nostradamus is a c***
Have ATV Abroad on watching 7.30 for the first time in years. Shorten not taking any shit from Sales. Go you good thing.
Sad to hear Bob Hawke has passed away , through his achievement he changed the political atmosphere and Australia and Australians were doing better under Labor than they were under the libs/nats
Hawke took over when Fraser and Howard had turned the economy to shit and set out with Keating cleaning their mess and establishing the fundamentals of the Australian economy. A lot more will be said about the man and his values in the coming days but the lesson above should not be lost.
WTF kind of question is that? ‘What scares you about winning?’ Seriously?!
Scott @ #56 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 8:12 pm
1
the first election I voted in was the 1987 Federal election, I voted for Bob Hawke to be PM for a 3rd term.
Remembering that now.
Hawke montage on 730. That was quick!
Goodbye Bob thanks for the great memories.
OMG was that a much younger Pauline Hanson cheering on Hawke with her friend?
The alp always seemed invincible with Bob at the helm. The feeling was peaceful and optimistic. I used to fantasize about him making a comeback. It was sad when he left politics. Even sadder now.
I still think 90 seats are possible on saturday. I said 100 a few pages back. That was a total brain fart, out by ten. Like others have said, less than 79 seems unlikely at this stage.
Fess: If you ever watched Drop The Dead Donkey then you’d know the joke about updating obituaries
I can remember a gaggle of Labor supporters around the telly making single-finger salutes to Malcolm Fraser on that night in 1983.
And cheering Bob Hawke.
Pour one out for Bobbie Hawke bois.
It was so good that Hawke and Keating could have a cup of tea together this week.
Asha Leu says:
Thursday, May 16, 2019 at 8:04 pm
You stole my photo!
I’ve been there for a few pints on several occasions.
I just missed ’83.
A great era, re-establishing and cementing Whitlam’s legacy as well as establishing his own. His Governments left a huge positive mark on the nation.
Thank you, Bob! 🙂
RIP Bob, thanks for everything. A great Australian.
Now is not the time, but people need to have a long hard think about what kind of legacy the Hawke Keating years left behind.
A deregulated, deindustrialized, deunionized economy primed to make the liberal party the natural party of government at the federal level, when the end of the cold war should have swung things labor’s way.
Put it this way ,by the time Howard got onto office other than flog off telecom there wasn’t much left for him to do, the neo liberal order had already arrived courtesy of a “labor”government.
I did some analysis trying to find a correlation between high pre-poll turnout and 2016 results, result 0.02
If there was a high turnout of Labor or Liberal voters in pre-poll it should stand out in strong seats.
I dont think high pre-poll turnout is indication of anything.
BH
“It was was amazing and if I remember rightly you and another Bludger declared it false before Rudd came out about it.”
I picked the email to Grech as having been faked. However about four days before that I said Rudd would have to resign when Grech testified, a serious error I have been reminded of on a number of occasions. 🙁
Vale Hawkie 🙁
Lucky Creed says:
Thursday, May 16, 2019 at 8:18 pm
Now is not the time, but people need to have a long hard think about what kind of legacy the Hawke Keating years left behind.
A deregulated, deindustrialized, deunionized economy primed to make the liberal party the natural party of government at the federal level, when the end of the cold war should have swung things labor’s way.
Put it this way ,by the time Howard got onto office other than flog off telecom there wasn’t much left for him to do, the neo liberal order had already arrived courtesy of a “labor”government.
_________________________
A better question may have been how a Hawke government could have stopped these things happening without international investment drying up. Perhaps they went a little too far in some areas, but it also coincided with one of the most generous welfare arrangements in Australian history.
jenauthor @ #1458 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 7:08 pm
41+35+10+9+3=98 so Others 2? So if Libs lost 3.7 since last election
Where in the hell did the NEW 9+3 for UAP and ON come from???
This stinks to High Heaven as iffy as 😡
Vale Bob.
I think I’ll track down some of this tomorrow:
Vale Bob
Diogenes @ #76 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 8:19 pm
I do remember you shooting your bolt without all the requisite info.
Co-incidentally I posted this link today.
Really is incredible.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4DgabQbdiUk
https://www.commongrace.org.au/barunga_statement
Thread: https://twitter.com/staffo_sez/status/1128964450575241217
I can remember that press conference with Hawke talking about his daughter’s drug problem. And IIRC there was a son who became a recluse or something.
bc @ #41 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 6:04 pm
I should’ve clarified that the 1983 election that swept Labor to power was my first FEDERAL election.
I actually turned 18 in 1980 but missed that year’s Federal election because my 18th birthday was 3 weeks after the election.
Like you I also voted in the 1983 WA state election.
and to think, we have a Fozzie Bear Pygmy as a putative PM now
really makes one wonder
Nath
Agree with your post.
The point AE thinks I don’t get. Hawke stood against the neo liberal tide of Thatcher and Reagan. Under his government we had the CES Medicare many more of course.
Rather than the Thatcher approach of breaking unions Hawke stood up and saved unions in an era they were under attack not seen in decades.
Tony fuckwit Abbot has written a deplorable statement about Hawke and is being trashed by twitter
Jenauthor:
Link?
GG
“I do remember you shooting your bolt without all the requisite info.”
The requisite info being that Grech was deluded fantasist who had made it all up.
Sally McManus
@sallymcmanus
·
35m
The entire union movement grieves for the passing of Bob Hawke. Medicare. Superannuation. Modern Australia. Union movement hero.
Hawke was such a very different leader to Shorten. Sensibly, he had left Socialist Economics in the dusty shelves of history, de-regulated the economy, kept the Unions on a leash and introduced alcoholism to to the CV of Prime Ministership.
Shorten will vacillate on Adani, follow the young votes and kid themselves that their Climate policies will change the weather but 26-28% reductions equate to ‘inaction’ on climate change. He will break Kevin Rudd’s record for spending and have the unions pulling every single one of his strings….
If he loses, the sycophants in here will realise where the anchor was….
Hi William, you mentioned Ipsos didn’t change BludgerTrack, I presume you mean the seats count which is still 79 to Labor. What do you attribute that to? Is your TPP estimate different from them after looking at the primaries, do you weight Ipsos a bit lower than other polls, or is it something else?
An excellent inning by Bob
Someone who tried to help his country and the majority of its people, not just 2-3%.
A bloody good bloke – who had a great time along the way.
Vale mate – and I raise a coldie to you in Thanks.
Vale Bob Hawke
First PM I remember. Still the archetype of a PM in my mind.
Son just got a call on landline, robocall from Scomo to vote for Andrew Hastie. Said the call included all of his slogans. Maybe the seat isn’t as safe as I thought.
Greensborough Growler @ #48 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 8:06 pm
+1
I turned 18 in 1980 as well.
The coalition have blown out $1.00 in the last 24 hours. Now @ 5.50 from 4.50 this time yesterday.
Seems to be fluctuating based on nothing I can pinpoint.