Essential Research: 51.5-48.5 to Labor

Labor maintains a modest yet decisive lead in the final Essential poll for the campaign, as YouGov Galaxy prepares to unload a barrage of seat polls throughout the day.

Update: YouGov Galaxy seat polls

As explained below, the News Corp papers are releasing YouGov Galaxy seat polls today on an hourly schedule. The results will be updated here as they become available. The polls were conducted Monday and Tuesday from samples of around 550.

Deakin (Liberal 6.4%, Victoria): Liberals lead 51-49. Primary votes: Liberal 44% (50.3% in 2016), Labor 37% (30.1%), Greens 9% (11.3%) and the United Australia Party 4%. Sample: 540.

Flynn (LNP 1.0%, Queensland): The LNP leads 53-47. Primary votes: LNP 37% (37.1% in 2016), Labor 33% (33.4%), Greens 3% (2.8%), United Australia Party 11%, One Nation 7%. Sample not specified.

Macquarie (Labor 2.2%, NSW): Labor leads 53-47. Primary votes: Labor 43% (35.5% in 2016), Liberal 42% (38.2%), Greens 8% (11.2%), United Australia Party 5%. Sample: 573.

La Trobe (Liberal 3.2%, Victoria): Dead heat on two-party preferred. Primary votes: Liberal 43% (42.2% in 2016), Labor 39% (31.4%), Greens 7% (10.6%), United Australia Party 3%. Sample: 541.

Forde (LNP 0.6%, Queensland): Dead heat on two-party preferred. Primary votes: LNP 42% (40.6% in 2016), Labor 41% (37.6%), Greens 5% (6.4%), One Nation 7%, United Australia Party 4%. Sample: 567.

Reid (Liberal 4.7%, NSW): Liberals lead 52-48. Primary votes: Liberal 44% (48.8% in 2016), Labor 36% (36.3%), Greens 7% (8.5%), United Australia Party 6%. Sample: 577.

Higgins (Liberal 7.4%, Victoria): The Liberals lead 52-48 over the Greens, with Labor running third on the primary vote: Liberal 45% (52.% in 2016), Greens 29% (25.3%), Labor 18% (14.9%). Sample: 538.

Herbert (Labor 0.0%, Queensland): Dead heat on two-party preferred. Primary votes: Labor 31% (30.5% in 2016), LNP 32% (35.5%), Greens 5% (6.3%), One Nation 6% (13.5%), United Australia Party 9%. Sample not specified.

Gilmore (Liberal 0.7%, NSW): Labor leads 52-48. Primary votes: Labor 40% (39.2% in 2016), Liberal 26% (45.3%), Nationals 17% (didn’t run last time, hence the Liberal primary vote collapse), Greens 7% (10.5%), United Australia Party 2%. Sample not specified.

Dickson (LNP 1.7%, Queensland): LNP leads 51-49. Primary votes: LNP 41 (44.7% at 2016 election), Labor 35% (35.0%), Greens 10% (9.8%), United Australia Party 9%, One Nation 3%. Sample: 542.

Original post

The Guardian reports Essential Research has concluded its business for the campaign with a poll that reports a 51.5-48.5 lead for Labor, having decided to mark the occasion by reporting its results to the first decimal place. This compares with a rounded result of 52-48 last time. On the primary vote, the Coalition is on 38.5% (up, probably, from 38% last time), Labor is on 36.2% (up from 34%), the Greens are well down to 9.1% from an inflated-looking 12% last time, and One Nation are on 6.6% (down from 7%). Scott Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 42-31 to 39-32. The poll went to the effort to inquire about which campaign stories had registered with voters – I will be very interested to see the full numbers when Essential Research unloads its full report later today, but apparently Labor’s tax plans, the egging of Scott Morrison and the Daily Telegraph’s inspirational profile of Bill Shorten’s late mother all left an impression.

UPDATE: Full report from Essential Research here. It turns out respondents typed up their own responses on election news stories they had noticed and Essential has produced the results in word cloud form, which you can see in the release.

We can also expect national polls from Newspoll and Ipsos over the next day or two – and, starting at 10am this morning, the News Corp papers will today be treating us to an hourly schedule of YouGov Galaxy seat poll releases targeting (deep breath) Flynn at 10am; Macquarie at 11am; La Trobe at noon; Forde at 1pm; Reid at 2pm; Higgins at 3pm; Herbert at 4pm; Gilmore at 5pm; Deakin at 6pm; and Dickson in Queensland at 6pm. Except, it seems, the the Deakin poll is already with us, courtesy of today’s Herald Sun. It credits the Liberals with a lead of 51-49, or a 5.4% swing from the 2016 result. The primary votes are Liberal 44% (50.3% in 2016), Labor 37% (30.1%), Greens 9% (11.3%) and the United Australia Party 4%. The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 540.

Also:

• The Greens were hawking a poll on Monday conducted by Environmental Research and Counsel, an offshoot of Essential Media, suggesting Josh Frydenberg was in serious difficulty in Kooyong. The poll showed Frydenberg’s primary vote at 41%, slumping from 58% in 2016, with Greens candidate Julian Burnside on 21%, Labor’s Jana Stewart on 16%, and much-touted independent Oliver Yates lagging on 9%. However, Frydenberg maintained a two-party lead over the Greens of 52-48. Phillip Coorey in the Financial Review reported on Tuesday that the Liberals were more confident than that, believing Frydenberg’s primary vote to be at around 48%.

• Andrew Tillett in the Financial Review reported on Monday that Labor was becoming “increasingly bullish about picking up seats in Victoria and Western Australia”. Concerning the former, the report relates that Liberal strategists are “split on whether to pour resources into Higgins, where Liberal candidate Katie Allen is narrowly ahead, or concentrate on other Melbourne marginals such as La Trobe, Casey or Deakin”. As David Crowe of noted in the Sydney Morning Herald on Monday, the Coalition’s $4 billion East West Link motorway commitment was “seen by Labor as an attempt to hold the Liberal electorates of Casey, Deakin and La Trobe”, none of which it would be so high on its priorities list if it was feeling confident.

• A slightly different view of the situation in Western Australia is provided by Andrew Burrell of The Australian, who reports Labor has scaled back its ambitions in the state, which once ran to five seats. Swan is said to be Labor’s best chance of a gain, and Labor says its internal polling has Pearce at 50-50, but the Liberals claim to be slightly ahead. But Labor sources sound discouraged about Hasluck, and the party is no longer bothering with Canning. Stirling, however, is said to be “close”. Scott Morrison visited the state on Monday, paying special attention to Swan; Bill Shorten followed the next day, where he campaigned in Pearce.

Also today: Seat du jour, covering the Perth seat of Swan.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,601 comments on “Essential Research: 51.5-48.5 to Labor”

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  1. I find the Ipsos saying that pre-polls favoring the COALition strange. I say that because going by what I observed when I pre-polled yesterday, as well as what I have observed from the lines at some other pre-polls, as well as some on ground reports from both PBludgers and others is that there seems to be a definite mood for change.

  3. Lars Von Trier says:
    Thursday, May 16, 2019 at 7:00 pm

    Rex that is the best hope for progressives but as Chris Bowen said “Labor will govern alone or not at all”

    Haven’t the Greens also said they’re not interested in forming a coalition with Labor?

  5. I still state this
    it is impossible for the libs/nats , LNP to gain seats in QLD and any state with primary votes lower than 40% , also will be very difficult for the libs/nats and LNP to retain seats if the primary vote is lower than it was in 2016

    Labor gain 14 seats from 2013 in 2016 with a primary vote of 34.7% ,

    Labor will gain more than 14 seats from 2016 , with an increase of 1.3% from 2016

  8. Poll Federal Seat of Dickson Primary Votes: LNP 41 (-3.7 since election) ALP 35 (0.0) GRN 10 (+0.2) UAP 9 (+9) ON 3 (+3) #auspol

  9. Cud Chewer @ #982 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 4:06 pm

    I’m in Paterson.

    Last I looked Meryl was worth 1.02

    But boring around here.

    Cud Chewer
    I got so excited in 2010 thinking we’d knock Baldwin over with Jim A and the campaign at the northern end was enthusiastic. I remember Julia G even hit a Raymond Terrace pub on election eve and we northerners couldn’t contain our joy – are we marginal?
    We came down to earth scrutineering on election night. Nothing had changed at our end.
    The boundaries changed and we turned very safe National. Absolutely no excitement there and none now that we are in Hunter. We haven’t had any letterbox drops, nil excitement, boring.

  12. Thanks for that lurid masturba-Tory fantasy list, Lincoln, best laugh of the day!

    Those LNP uglies aren’t scoring with half those seats.

  14. blackburnpseph says:
    Thursday, May 16, 2019 at 6:58 pm
    I put my predictions on another website last night but the best I could see for the Coalition if everything fell their way was 76 seats and the best for the ALP was 86. It is almost impossible for Labor not to lose or conversely for the Libs to win a majority. Labor getting 79-81 seats seems reasonable and would give them a very workable but not huge majority.

    I would really like to see the seats that gave you this list. 86 seats for the ALP means a gain of 14 seats!!!!! even 79 means a net gain of 7… where are these coming from?

    Most people here are just pissing in the wind with their predictions, some are taking best case scenarios from marginal seats and adding fairy dust to get the ALP over the line. Others keep looking to the fanciful two horse race in the betting market (which means less than nothing since punters don’t know what a marginal seat is).

    Even TPP polls are not particularly useful when polling is fixed, close and there are substantial influences of minor parties shifting (UAP here for the first time, PHON in some decline, GRN in some decline).

    Only the marginals matter and they have been dropping like flies. It takes a lot of LSD and denial to think that the ALP have this election in spades.

  15. If Peter Dutton is re-elected and the Coalition are defeated in the election. He will likely become Opposition leader, it might well trigger a split in the Liberal Party.

  16. Poll Federal Seat of Dickson Primary Votes: LNP 41 (-3.7 since election) ALP 35 (0.0) GRN 10 (+0.2) UAP 9 (+9) ON 3 (+3) #auspol

    Jeepers, why can’t the Greens do any better than that. Look at how ON have gone, they need to take a lesson from them.

    Or something like that

  17. I like the idea of Dutton being lulled into a false sense of security, then being blind-sided on Saturday evening.

    Couldn’t happen to a nicer bloke

  18. Dickson is looking like another lost for the LNP

    Can not see Dutton holding on with anything lower than the 2016 primary vote

  19. Despite seeing how the seat polls looked in 2016, I found this set of polls profoundly chilling. I’ve lived all my life in Queensland. Most of it in Central Queensland. And yet what the hell is wrong with Queensland. :'(

  21. Tristo says:
    Thursday, May 16, 2019 at 7:10 pm
    If Peter Dutton is re-elected and the Coalition are defeated, he will likely become Opposition leader, it might well trigger a split in the Liberal Party.

    —————————–

    Thats why i hopeKevin Andrews is still around , i still think Andrews is the smokey as opposition leader

  22. Actually the Dickson number is pretty disappointing in terms of the impact of GetUp, if its replicated on Saturday.

    Wasn’t that one of their targets?

  23. Blobbit @ #1462 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 5:10 pm

    Poll Federal Seat of Dickson Primary Votes: LNP 41 (-3.7 since election) ALP 35 (0.0) GRN 10 (+0.2) UAP 9 (+9) ON 3 (+3) #auspol

    Jeepers, why can’t the Greens do any better than that. Look at how ON have gone, they need to take a lesson from them.

    Or something like that

    Clearly Adani isn’t such an issue in Brisbane as it is in Melbourne.

  26. [I’ve been banging the drum that they aren’t too healthy for Labor and the Greens either. Sure they’re not in a formal coalition or even a hand-wavy alliance, and yes there’s preferential voting. But ultimately it comes down to campaign resources and who you’re trying to get rid of.]

    Yes true. The Greens should avoid contesting Labor-held seats or marginals within Labor’s reach in the interests of securing a Centre-Left government — unless of course they want a Coalition one?

    If only everyone would get out of the way, Labor might actually win an election all on it’s own. so long as there’s no questions, no facts, no debates, no opposition, in short no election or democratic process.

    That many Australians have no real understanding of preferences in voting in Australia is really an indictment on the ignorance of many Australians as to how the system works. Cultivated by the majors to a large extent when they think they can use it to their advantage. I would guess that a significant fraction, maybe even half or more, would fail the citizenship test section on government, based on my discussion with recent immigrants studying for it.

    For someone with purely spiteful approach to politics it might be all about who you’re trying to get rid of, if it is not just getting rid of any one who might ask a few questions and offer a better policy.

    For someone with a bit more vision and insight they might be voting primarily for what they want for the better in society and what is clearly in their better interests on the basis of facts. You know, like voting to do something real about a threat like climate change and the breakdown of ecological systems that make life on Earth and human civilisation possible.

    imacca @ #1270 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 5:53 pm

    “It’s not so much that they’re partisans – we have plenty here too – but more that they’re prepared to express their partisanship so openly in ordinary conversation, to the point of physically gaping at you if you don’t see it their way.

    Anyone else encountered this?”

    Oh yeah. Absolute committed, dismissive, and impenetrable to any reasoned discussion. They will also complain about people being impolite over politics, when its exactly what they are doing.

    Me, i take a step back from them now as i dont need the grief for no return, and get a bit pissed at the disrespect involved.

    Seems like an apt description of PB comments section most days

    Never ending whinges from the noisy minor sub-fraction of the Shit-lite party tend to predominate though.

    I can have conversations with Lib and Lab voting family, some of whom have certainly voted PHON also, or colleagues and discuss policies with far less animosity and puerile BS than most of what passes for discussion and commentary here.

    Seems the PB’er cheer squad are almost as gung ho as they were before the NSW election. Seem to remember Rational Leftist offering the same advice then as well, go do something else for 48 hrs. None of the shit posted here is likely to change the outcome anywhere in that time.

    The end of the election is just the beginning of the next phase of action on climate change, ending fracking and fossil fuel economics at the expense of the world’s ecology. Amongst other matters that need attending to.

    Given a fairly widespread perception that it is either shit or shit-lite in government, it seems that nothing much will change for anyone who had realistic and low expectations that either of the major parties would do anything different to supporting their donors interests as usual. The only real shock would be if the government that forms is actually capable of listening and acting in the real interests of all Australian citizens and the world more often than not.

  27. We’ve been called by Scott Morrison on behalf of Ross Vasta on the home phone, and within minutes of that call, my wife, son and myself were called on our mobile phones.
    Same pro Vasta call as on the home phone call.
    All of us called within minutes of each other. Amazing!!!
    Poor Ross Vasta must be in trouble here in Bonner.

  28. MOE is likely between 5 and 6. Any or all of those polls could be out quite a bit. But they all look kind of thereabouts. I wonder if more ‘herdy’ methods were employed hereabouts?

  30. Poll Federal Seat of Dickson Primary Votes: LNP 41 (-3.7 since election) ALP 35 (0.0) GRN 10 (+0.2) UAP 9 (+9) ON 3 (+3) #auspol

    UAP On 9 like most seat polls rofl rofl

  33. Mind you, I would question how a seat on a margin of 1.7% can stay in the fold if their primary vote goes down 3.7% and the combined ALP/Greens vote is either the same or slightly up.

    Sounds like bullshit rounding/turd polishing to me

  35. lizzie @ #689 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 11:53 am

    Looks as if there is still plenty of room for argument in this.

    One view:

    Again, Probyn and your trusted #ABCnews24 fails to mention that the Rwandan ‘accused’ refugees had no criminal case because their confessions were appropriated under torture. Garbage journalism that censors that information while it actively feeds into racist refugee hysteria

    Morrison has never let the truth or proper context get in the way of a good smear. For once he’s on the receiving end.

  36. Rational Leftist – if the Greens get 10 or close to a state in Senate then they are almost certainly going to get elected without needing much be way of preferences. With a fairly high minor party vote it is going to be hard for major parties to get up say 35% (surplus of 6.4%) needed to be in hunt for third seat. The new Senate voting system means the 6th and sometimes 5th elected will be under quota, possibly by a significant amount.

  37. Anyone care to predict Newspoll tomorrow?

    I say 50.5 ALP/ 49.5 LNP

    When was Bill Shorten last in Queensland? Seems it was written off in the last week? I think Harry Hindsight would have said forget Queensland and attack, attack Adani was the smarter and ethical approach – would have paid off in spades in Metro Melbourne.

    All that waffle about sovereign risk just fed the tricky and mendacious vibe about the ALP.

  38. Lincoln, what are doing in here educating us fanciful idealistic fools against our folly?

    You can get $21 for the tories in Griffith. I thought your type raises self interest above altruism?

  40. Lincoln

    You don’t do yourself any favours suggesting people here who disagree with your fantasy predictions are on LSD. Just shows you’re nothing more than a Lib troll.

  41. If the united Australia party is 9% in dickson , that is not going to help Dutton much at all on preferences if they are 60/40 to LNP

    The one nation 3% is not that useful in preference for Dutton either

    7% in the 2pp , combined UAP,ONP

  43. I don’t think Labor will mind the polls so close. They want to appear the underdogs and get every one of their votes out. Not a bad set of numbers today. IMHO

  44. My comment is in moderation because I can’t correctly spell my email address. LOL.

    I raised an eyebrow at the TPP figures for Dickson, given the swings from the last election.

    William: can you please delete my other comment?

  45. Ipsos is what it is.

    One observation. Compare the labor PV for each of the ten seats dropped out by Newscorp to the labor PV in Ipsos.

    Cheers and a good evening to all.

  46. “542 voters in Dickson. #Galaxy #auspol
    Means MOE will be +5%”

    How many for a typical national poll, in terms of the absolute number of people questioned?

  48. “I have enjoyed watching Darcy Moore this year – I remember hearing murmurs a few years ago about trading him! He is a an excellent ‘swing’ player and gee he looks like his dad when he plays!”

    Likewise CFC, I even showed my boys some footage of his dad playing to emphasize their similarities. Moving him to the backline has been a very good idea. Oh, and isn’t Brodie Grundy smashing them. He’s ace.

  49. Further to my thought above, assuming all of these polls have a MOE of 5-6, it’s really likely that one of them would have had an eyebrow raising kind of result, rather than all of them hitting middle of the road.

    Kind of similar to how at least one poll, somewhere in this campaign would have had a 2pp of something other than 51 or 52. These results all seem smoothed through some kind of flexible method.

  50. joeldipops

    It’s because Qld is the Alabama of Australia. Chock a block full of rednecks. And those who aren’t rednecks are your bog standard selfish retired boomers who’ve migrated there for the sun

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