Essential Research: 51.5-48.5 to Labor

Labor maintains a modest yet decisive lead in the final Essential poll for the campaign, as YouGov Galaxy prepares to unload a barrage of seat polls throughout the day.

Update: YouGov Galaxy seat polls

As explained below, the News Corp papers are releasing YouGov Galaxy seat polls today on an hourly schedule. The results will be updated here as they become available. The polls were conducted Monday and Tuesday from samples of around 550.

Deakin (Liberal 6.4%, Victoria): Liberals lead 51-49. Primary votes: Liberal 44% (50.3% in 2016), Labor 37% (30.1%), Greens 9% (11.3%) and the United Australia Party 4%. Sample: 540.

Flynn (LNP 1.0%, Queensland): The LNP leads 53-47. Primary votes: LNP 37% (37.1% in 2016), Labor 33% (33.4%), Greens 3% (2.8%), United Australia Party 11%, One Nation 7%. Sample not specified.

Macquarie (Labor 2.2%, NSW): Labor leads 53-47. Primary votes: Labor 43% (35.5% in 2016), Liberal 42% (38.2%), Greens 8% (11.2%), United Australia Party 5%. Sample: 573.

La Trobe (Liberal 3.2%, Victoria): Dead heat on two-party preferred. Primary votes: Liberal 43% (42.2% in 2016), Labor 39% (31.4%), Greens 7% (10.6%), United Australia Party 3%. Sample: 541.

Forde (LNP 0.6%, Queensland): Dead heat on two-party preferred. Primary votes: LNP 42% (40.6% in 2016), Labor 41% (37.6%), Greens 5% (6.4%), One Nation 7%, United Australia Party 4%. Sample: 567.

Reid (Liberal 4.7%, NSW): Liberals lead 52-48. Primary votes: Liberal 44% (48.8% in 2016), Labor 36% (36.3%), Greens 7% (8.5%), United Australia Party 6%. Sample: 577.

Higgins (Liberal 7.4%, Victoria): The Liberals lead 52-48 over the Greens, with Labor running third on the primary vote: Liberal 45% (52.% in 2016), Greens 29% (25.3%), Labor 18% (14.9%). Sample: 538.

Herbert (Labor 0.0%, Queensland): Dead heat on two-party preferred. Primary votes: Labor 31% (30.5% in 2016), LNP 32% (35.5%), Greens 5% (6.3%), One Nation 6% (13.5%), United Australia Party 9%. Sample not specified.

Gilmore (Liberal 0.7%, NSW): Labor leads 52-48. Primary votes: Labor 40% (39.2% in 2016), Liberal 26% (45.3%), Nationals 17% (didn’t run last time, hence the Liberal primary vote collapse), Greens 7% (10.5%), United Australia Party 2%. Sample not specified.

Dickson (LNP 1.7%, Queensland): LNP leads 51-49. Primary votes: LNP 41 (44.7% at 2016 election), Labor 35% (35.0%), Greens 10% (9.8%), United Australia Party 9%, One Nation 3%. Sample: 542.

Original post

The Guardian reports Essential Research has concluded its business for the campaign with a poll that reports a 51.5-48.5 lead for Labor, having decided to mark the occasion by reporting its results to the first decimal place. This compares with a rounded result of 52-48 last time. On the primary vote, the Coalition is on 38.5% (up, probably, from 38% last time), Labor is on 36.2% (up from 34%), the Greens are well down to 9.1% from an inflated-looking 12% last time, and One Nation are on 6.6% (down from 7%). Scott Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 42-31 to 39-32. The poll went to the effort to inquire about which campaign stories had registered with voters – I will be very interested to see the full numbers when Essential Research unloads its full report later today, but apparently Labor’s tax plans, the egging of Scott Morrison and the Daily Telegraph’s inspirational profile of Bill Shorten’s late mother all left an impression.

UPDATE: Full report from Essential Research here. It turns out respondents typed up their own responses on election news stories they had noticed and Essential has produced the results in word cloud form, which you can see in the release.

We can also expect national polls from Newspoll and Ipsos over the next day or two – and, starting at 10am this morning, the News Corp papers will today be treating us to an hourly schedule of YouGov Galaxy seat poll releases targeting (deep breath) Flynn at 10am; Macquarie at 11am; La Trobe at noon; Forde at 1pm; Reid at 2pm; Higgins at 3pm; Herbert at 4pm; Gilmore at 5pm; Deakin at 6pm; and Dickson in Queensland at 6pm. Except, it seems, the the Deakin poll is already with us, courtesy of today’s Herald Sun. It credits the Liberals with a lead of 51-49, or a 5.4% swing from the 2016 result. The primary votes are Liberal 44% (50.3% in 2016), Labor 37% (30.1%), Greens 9% (11.3%) and the United Australia Party 4%. The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 540.

Also:

• The Greens were hawking a poll on Monday conducted by Environmental Research and Counsel, an offshoot of Essential Media, suggesting Josh Frydenberg was in serious difficulty in Kooyong. The poll showed Frydenberg’s primary vote at 41%, slumping from 58% in 2016, with Greens candidate Julian Burnside on 21%, Labor’s Jana Stewart on 16%, and much-touted independent Oliver Yates lagging on 9%. However, Frydenberg maintained a two-party lead over the Greens of 52-48. Phillip Coorey in the Financial Review reported on Tuesday that the Liberals were more confident than that, believing Frydenberg’s primary vote to be at around 48%.

Andrew Tillett in the Financial Review reported on Monday that Labor was becoming “increasingly bullish about picking up seats in Victoria and Western Australia”. Concerning the former, the report relates that Liberal strategists are “split on whether to pour resources into Higgins, where Liberal candidate Katie Allen is narrowly ahead, or concentrate on other Melbourne marginals such as La Trobe, Casey or Deakin”. As David Crowe of noted in the Sydney Morning Herald on Monday, the Coalition’s $4 billion East West Link motorway commitment was “seen by Labor as an attempt to hold the Liberal electorates of Casey, Deakin and La Trobe”, none of which it would be so high on its priorities list if it was feeling confident.

• A slightly different view of the situation in Western Australia is provided by Andrew Burrell of The Australian, who reports Labor has scaled back its ambitions in the state, which once ran to five seats. Swan is said to be Labor’s best chance of a gain, and Labor says its internal polling has Pearce at 50-50, but the Liberals claim to be slightly ahead. But Labor sources sound discouraged about Hasluck, and the party is no longer bothering with Canning. Stirling, however, is said to be “close”. Scott Morrison visited the state on Monday, paying special attention to Swan; Bill Shorten followed the next day, where he campaigned in Pearce.

Also today: Seat du jour, covering the Perth seat of Swan.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,601 comments on “Essential Research: 51.5-48.5 to Labor”

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  1. As I stated on a previous thread, I began this election campaign quietly optimistic about the chances of ridding Australia of the worst government in living memory. As the campaign unfolded I moved to a state of nervous optimism. After the attack on the Late Mrs Shorten by the grubs at the Daily Tellmecrap, I swung back a state of comfortable optimism.

    This latest Essential has reinforced that feeling. Barring a blowout Newspoll, I will remain that way.

  2. Thanks William. Seems that the DT thinks the seat polling is like a Dickensian serial. Hopefully ‘Hard Times’ for the current mob.

    My take, much as I’d love to see Deakin fall, I think the Libs will hold it due to the Bible belt boomers. But La Trobe should definitely fall. Part of La Trobe fought a long war against a McDonalds to be located in Tecoma, for crying out loud. The hills are full of Nimbys.

  3. Deakin 3rd place 2001 @ #3 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 6:24 am

    Thanks William. Seems that the DT thinks the seat polling is like a Dickensian serial. Hopefully ‘Hard Times’ for the current mob.

    My take, much as I’d love to see Deakin fall, I think the Libs will hold it due to the Bible belt boomers. But La Trobe should definitely fall. Part of La Trobe fought a long war against a McDonalds to be located in Tecoma, for crying out loud. The hills are full of Nimbys.

    Great Expectations for Labor!

  4. Campaign
    Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten will begin their day in Sydney.

    12:30 PM
    Scott Morrison will deliver the Prime Minister’s Election Address at the National Press Club in Canberra.

    01:45 PM
    Opposition Leader Bill Shorten will address the Labor Party faithful in Blacktown, Sydney.

  5. Sportsbet have paid out early on Labor winning the election, did the same in 2013

    We’ve paid out early on Labor!
    We’re declaring it early! Labor look to have such a stranglehold over this weekend’s Federal Election, that we’ve already paid out $1.3 MILLION to customers to have backed them to be Sworn in as the Next Government. (Single Bets only. Bets placed on Labor in the ‘Next Election – Sworn in Government’ market prior to 16th May 2019 only. Conditions apply.)Read Less

  6. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Katharine Murphy goes into the details of the latest Essential poll.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/16/essential-poll-majority-of-voters-think-bill-shorten-will-be-the-winner-on-saturday
    Janet Albrechtsen to head up the IPA. Now there’s a surprise!
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/albrechtsen-in-kemp-out-at-the-ipa-20190515-p51nq0.html
    Katharine Murphy says that there’s a discomfiting conjunction if Scott Morrison wins and the United Australia party leader picks up a Senate spot and she explains why Clive Palmer’s fantasies have real world consequences.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/16/every-child-gets-a-pony-why-clive-palmers-fantasies-have-real-world-consequences
    Michael Koziol tells us about Barnaby Joyce going off the reservation regarding the “civil war” erupting within the Coalition over Senate voting in NSW.
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/they-fired-the-first-shot-barnaby-joyce-warns-coalition-at-stake-as-senate-civil-war-rages-20190515-p51nnk.html
    Gabrielle Chan also writes on this story.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/15/jim-molans-senate-campaign-accused-of-breaking-the-coalition-agreement
    As does Michelle Grattan.
    https://theconversation.com/angry-nationals-play-payback-in-nsw-senate-row-117208
    Nationals federal president Larry Anthony has added his weight to a call by the NSW party for supporters to vote “below the line” in the Senate, in retaliation against the campaign by maverick Liberal senator Jim Molan to get voters to buck the Coalition’s joint ticket.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/15/clive-palmer-gag-clause-qn-workers-told-to-make-no-disparaging-comments-if-they-want-entitlements
    The SMH editorial says that the first review of education funding by David Gonski under the Gillard government may have called for a needs-based approach, but it is clear that money is not following need and has not done so under successive Labor and Coalition governments. Things need to change.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/school-funding-key-to-education-our-children-deserve-20190515-p51nr1.html
    On this matter Peter Goss reports that Australia has increased the real resources available to schools by more than $2 billion in a decade, but we spent the extra money on the schools that needed it least.
    https://www.smh.com.au/education/lopsided-funding-gives-more-to-private-schools-that-need-it-least-20190514-p51ndt.html
    Sam Maiden reports that Tanya Plibersek has conceded a minority government remains a threat, with independents again potentially emerging as kingmakers. If the result is as close as some are tipping, the major parties may have to fight for the support of the crossbench.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/election-2019/2019/05/15/tanya-plibersek-labor/
    Former Queensland Nickel workers are being told to sign a document gagging them from making any disparaging comments about Clive Palmer in exchange for receiving their outstanding entitlements. The man is a shocker!
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/15/clive-palmer-gag-clause-qn-workers-told-to-make-no-disparaging-comments-if-they-want-entitlements
    The AFR tells us that Bill Shorten has assured business it need not fear a Labor government.
    https://www.outline.com/YMpccB
    The Independent Australia says that Scott Morrison may be on track to lead the conservatives to an honourable defeat. It also says it is time that the Murdoch monopoly in Australian media – particularly in single newspaper cities – is broken up. And the fools at the Daily Telegraph have given this idea a boost that many of us could only dream of.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/mid-term-election-performance-morrison-fair-but-murdoch-a-terrible-fail,12675
    Paula Matthewson says that the vote of the politically homeless will send a message to major parties.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/election-2019/2019/05/14/paula-matthewson-election/
    Rory Maguire says that the realities of the energy market are changing fast, so Scott Morrison might consider brandishing silicon rather than coal in Parliament next time.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/take-a-lump-of-silicon-to-parliament-20-000-times-better-than-coal-20190514-p51n6d.html
    Labor’s idea of an Evaluator General could dramatically cut wasteful spending say two academics in The Conversation.
    https://theconversation.com/labors-idea-of-an-evaluator-general-could-dramatically-cut-wasteful-spending-115840
    Noel Towell writes that Victoria’s newish status as a battleground state, a place where national elections can be won or lost, is here to stay and if you want to reach Victorian voters these days, you have to go through Daniel Andrews.
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/whoever-wins-on-saturday-daniel-andrews-can-t-lose-20190515-p51nlr.html
    Government meddling in the housing market is a slippery slope, as the experience in the United States shows, write John Kehoe and Jacob Greber in the AFR.
    https://www.outline.com/aWsxbt
    Here is an excellent contribution from a gay man about the effect that continued comments from people from people like Falau has on the LGBTIQ community.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/i-ve-been-to-hell-already-israel-folau-thanks-to-people-like-you-20190515-p51ng4.html
    Australians’ Medicare details are still being illegally offered for sale on the darknet, almost two years after Guardian Australia revealed the serious privacy breach. Paul Karp reports.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/16/australians-medicare-details-illegally-sold-on-darknet-two-years-after-breach-exposed
    Elizabeth Knight explains why the RBA has not recently lowered the interest rate. It’s all to do with a tax bonus that will hit income taxpayers’ bank accounts.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/there-s-a-7-5b-reason-why-the-rba-is-stalling-on-rate-cuts-20190515-p51nog.html
    Peter Hartcher writes that according to Ross Garnaut intelligent climate policy may give Australia the chance to become the most competitive place in the world to smelt aluminium and make steel.
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/australia-can-be-superpower-of-post-carbon-world-says-ross-garnaut-20190515-p51nsb.html
    David Crowe reports that the Morrison government will unveil a new round of budget savings today to pay for at least $1.2 billion in spending promises as Labor intensifies its campaign against cuts to services.
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/government-to-reveal-new-budget-savings-as-morrison-shorten-battle-for-votes-20190515-p51nqu.html
    Jess Irvine explains that it’s toilet blocks at ten paces in the pork barrelling in key seats.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-fate-of-our-nation-it-s-in-the-toilet-20190515-p51np6.html
    Latika Bourke breaks the story that two former staffers who claim they were bullied in the office of Aged Care Minister Ken Wyatt say they were ignored by Prime Minister Scott Morrison when they contacted him for help. Birmo gets a mention too.
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/two-of-mp-s-former-staffers-say-they-asked-scott-morrison-to-help-resolve-their-complaints-20190514-p51ncs.html
    Judith Ireland on Shorten toying with the idea of giving Julie Bishop a plum diplomatic posting.
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/bill-shorten-to-hold-urgent-summit-with-unions-business-as-first-act-20190515-p51nj1.html
    Michaela Whitbourn reports that sexual harassment is “alarmingly commonplace” in the legal profession and Australia has among the highest reported rates of bullying and harassment in the world, according to a landmark survey of 7000 lawyers in more than 100 countries.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6125130/sexual-harassment-alarmingly-commonplace-among-australian-lawyers/?cs=14329
    A global research house says sales of petrol and diesel cars have passed their peak and by 2040 more than 60 per cent of new cars sales will be electric vehicles, boosting Labor’s election pledge to turbocharge Australia’s uptake.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/non-electric-vehicle-sales-may-have-peaked-globally-says-new-research-20190514-p51n1j.html
    Jennifer Duke reports that US technology behemoths Google, Facebook, Microsoft, Amazon and Twitter will join forces as part of an unprecedented push against the sharing of terrorist content in the aftermath of the Christchurch massacre.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/tech-giants-pledge-unprecedented-action-to-tackle-terrorist-content-20190515-p51npa.html
    Bloomberg says we shouldn’t go searching for a strategy in Trump’s tariff moves – it’s personal.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/don-t-go-searching-for-a-strategy-in-trump-s-tariff-moves-20190515-p51nfs.html
    WhatsApp hacked and bugs in Intel chips: what you need to know to protect yourself.
    https://theconversation.com/whatsapp-hacked-and-bugs-in-intel-chips-what-you-need-to-know-to-protect-yourself-117173
    With Bolton whispering in Trump’s ear, war with Iran is no longer unthinkable, writes Owen Jones.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/15/war-with-iran-john-bolton-donald-trump-usa
    American Airlines (AA) pilots angrily confronted a Boeing official about an anti-stall system suspected in two fatal crashes of the manufacturer’s 737 Max aircraft, according to a new recording.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/may/15/boeing-737-max-pilots-lion-air-ethiopian-airlines-audio
    Today’s nomination for “Arsehole of the Week” goes to Paul Zanetti who is tweeting like mad over the old Shorten rape issue.
    https://twitter.com/ZanettiCartoons

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe has excelled here!

    Cathy Wilcox nails Abbott.

    From Matt Golding.



    Andrew Dyson and some oldies.

    Some pork from Matt Davidson.

    Mark David has two more for us today.


    Sean Leahy and Eurovision

    Lovely work here from Jon Kudelka over the voting below the line spat within the Coalition.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/331290946cc84055ce440cfa4ba31889?width=1024

    From the US





  7. Greensborough Growler @ #4 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 4:24 am

    As always, Conservative commentator James Campbell provides a potent and, I believe, accurate summary of the State of play in Victoria.

    https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/opinion/james-campbell/james-campbell-get-set-for-the-victorian-blame-game-when-labor-wins-the-federal-election/news-story/6b819bb5adc5736df92f0a523ff88e68

    Aren’t the Victorian Libs still at war with each other over the result of the state election? The compounding effect of the drubbing they’re going to get at the Federal level is going to make the Civil War (English, American, Spanish – take your pick) look like a slight difference of opinion.

    Is is possible to overdose on schadenfreude?

  8. BK @ #9 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 4:29 am

    Michael Koziol tells us about Barnaby Joyce going off the reservation regarding the “civil war” erupting within the Coalition over Senate voting in NSW.
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/they-fired-the-first-shot-barnaby-joyce-warns-coalition-at-stake-as-senate-civil-war-rages-20190515-p51nnk.html
    Gabrielle Chan also writes on this story.

    When has the Beetrooter ever been “on the reservation?

  9. Julie Bishop gives the big FU to the Liberal Party in WA, courtesy of Bill Shorten. We only need Lucien Eye to provide his final endorsement…

  10. The BeetRooter on ABC RN after 7.30. Has he been at the early opener?

    This is not how the Coalition wanted the last 2 days to unfold. And what is it with the Murdoch tabloids? All of them have no election beat up on the front page (other than the HeraldDun), with the rest going with full front page local law and order stories.

  11. Civil war in the Liberal and National parties is a good thing and needs to happen. As I wrote yesterday, what we are seeing is the last dying days of the Howard and Costello era.

    Howard and Costello went too far with Workchoices and got turfed. This lot have gone too far with Robodebt, Cash for Mates and MPs and extreme vote buying with the Public Purse. So they need to get turfed too and government needs to go back to what it’s supposed to be about. Us.

  12. Dan Gulberry @ #10 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 6:30 am

    Greensborough Growler @ #4 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 4:24 am

    As always, Conservative commentator James Campbell provides a potent and, I believe, accurate summary of the State of play in Victoria.

    https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/opinion/james-campbell/james-campbell-get-set-for-the-victorian-blame-game-when-labor-wins-the-federal-election/news-story/6b819bb5adc5736df92f0a523ff88e68

    Aren’t the Victorian Libs still at war with each other over the result of the state election? The compounding effect of the drubbing they’re going to get at the Federal level is going to make the Civil War (English, American, Spanish – take your pick) look like a slight difference of opinion.

    Is is possible to overdose on schadenfreude?

    Campbell covers all that. But, yes.

    Schadefreude is like scoffing a whole box of chocolates at one sitting.

  13. Expat says: (from previous thread)
    Thursday, May 16, 2019 at 5:44 am
    Regards the over 55s – my mum has over her lifetime done the reverse of the stereotype.

    ____________________________________________

    Born and raised in the bush and even up till the end of 1987 was a conservative voter. Moved to new job in a public high school in my home town area and promptly changed over to Labor and haven’t looked back. You could say I discovered the need for social justice.

  14. I’m over 55 and have always voted Labor. As a member of one of the Caring Professions I always thought we should look after everyone equally well. Labor is the only political party that wants to do that.

  15. sprocket_ @ #14 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 6:36 am

    The BeetRooter on ABC RN after 7.30. Has he been at the early opener?

    This is not how the Coalition wanted the last 2 days to unfold. And what is it with the Murdoch tabloids? All of them have no election beat up on the front page (other than the HeraldDun), with the rest going with full front page local law and order stories.

    Or their intended front pages were spiked by court injunctions last night…..

  16. Dog’s Breakfast @ #21 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 6:46 am

    Expat says: (from previous thread)
    Thursday, May 16, 2019 at 5:44 am
    Regards the over 55s – my mum has over her lifetime done the reverse of the stereotype.

    ____________________________________________

    Born and raised in the bush and even up till the end of 1987 was a conservative voter. Moved to new job in a public high school in my home town area and promptly changed over to Labor and haven’t looked back. You could say I discovered the need for social justice.

    When I was young I was very idealistic.
    Then as I got older life didn’t yield for me and I found out how hard work was the only way forward for me and I got pissed at people who got hand outs and made no effort to contribute. Now that I’m middle aged I’m more concerned about what society I leave behind.

    I’ve done the arc from progressive to conservative to progressive again.
    But I never voted liberal because they’re lying cunts. I did get fed up with the ALP left wing and voted informally for a bit there though.

  17. Jacinda Ardern does it again! No one else has been able to bring these guys to the table to do anything, but she did:

    US technology behemoths Google, Facebook, Microsoft, Amazon and Twitter will join forces as part of an unprecedented push against the sharing of terrorist content in the aftermath of the Christchurch massacre.

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/tech-giants-pledge-unprecedented-action-to-tackle-terrorist-content-20190515-p51npa.html

  18. @margaretmaryle3

    #Anthony Green has said if there is a swing in #Victoria on #Saturday it’s all over..it won’t matter about the rest he will know straight away….if there no swing.he than looks to Queensland ….please all your strongest vibes to Victoria for a swing…..

  19. C@tmomma

    Meanwhile on the bus on the way home I heard on the radio one of those terrorist warnings

    Negative vs positive

  20. As of COB Wednesday approximately 3.48m people had cast their vote at an early voting centre for the 2019 federal election. Around 460k voted yesterday. #ausvotes    #auspol 

  21. @AEC

    As of COB Wednesday approximately 3.48m people had cast their vote at an early voting centre for the 2019 federal election. Around 460k voted yesterday. #ausvotes    #auspol 

  22. The facts are , no good to the libs/nats picking up seats in qld , nsw,tas, for no net gain, the libs/nats as with Labor need to gain seats on top of what they hold

    It will be impossible for the libs/nats to get a net gain in seats or even stop loses of seats with a combined primary vote lower than 40% in majority of the states

  23. Not unexpectedly, some of the Bookies are paying out on labor already.

    Peter van Onselen

    Verified account

    @vanOnselenP
    53m53 minutes ago
    More
    Sportsbet has already paid out on a Labor win for Saturday…. #auspol

  24. C@t @6:45.

    That is surely illegal – trying to intimidate people into voting a certain way.

    It turd who sent that message needs to be reported.

  25. GG

    Thanks for that link to the SkyNews Deakin poll, and also the James Campbell article.

    Many Liberal ‘party machine’ insiders in Victoria are absolutely sick of it – they got blamed for the Victorian election loss (nothing to do with the hierarchy’s crap candidates and policies of course!) and they know they are going to be blamed again. Many will walk after this election – they are incredibly frustrated with the direction their party has gone and have now basically given up. Which of course will mean the remnants will lurch even further to the right.

  26. I couldn’t give a stuff about a mythical ‘surplus’ and wish that both sides would stop using it.

    But this will be interesting. Which CUTS will be introduced by Frydenberg? They won’t be called cuts, of course, they will be ‘adjustments’, or even spending increases 😆

    The Morrison government will unveil a new round of budget savings to pay for at least $1.2 billion in spending promises as Labor intensifies its campaign against cuts to services.

    The government has chosen the last days of the election campaign to reveal surprise savings to cover the cost of the promises it has made over the past five weeks, but it is ruling out a tax increase to fund its program.

    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/government-to-reveal-new-budget-savings-as-morrison-shorten-battle-for-votes-20190515-p51nqu.html

  27. If Sportsbet have already paid out on a Labor win, and their site still advertises Labor at 1.16, does that mean you can just shunt money there and get paid out immediately??

    Sort of like an ATM* with benefits?

    *Not to be confused with the ATM Prime Ministers who have been in charge of the Coalition of Chaos.

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