Essential Research: 51.5-48.5 to Labor

Labor maintains a modest yet decisive lead in the final Essential poll for the campaign, as YouGov Galaxy prepares to unload a barrage of seat polls throughout the day.

Update: YouGov Galaxy seat polls

As explained below, the News Corp papers are releasing YouGov Galaxy seat polls today on an hourly schedule. The results will be updated here as they become available. The polls were conducted Monday and Tuesday from samples of around 550.

Deakin (Liberal 6.4%, Victoria): Liberals lead 51-49. Primary votes: Liberal 44% (50.3% in 2016), Labor 37% (30.1%), Greens 9% (11.3%) and the United Australia Party 4%. Sample: 540.

Flynn (LNP 1.0%, Queensland): The LNP leads 53-47. Primary votes: LNP 37% (37.1% in 2016), Labor 33% (33.4%), Greens 3% (2.8%), United Australia Party 11%, One Nation 7%. Sample not specified.

Macquarie (Labor 2.2%, NSW): Labor leads 53-47. Primary votes: Labor 43% (35.5% in 2016), Liberal 42% (38.2%), Greens 8% (11.2%), United Australia Party 5%. Sample: 573.

La Trobe (Liberal 3.2%, Victoria): Dead heat on two-party preferred. Primary votes: Liberal 43% (42.2% in 2016), Labor 39% (31.4%), Greens 7% (10.6%), United Australia Party 3%. Sample: 541.

Forde (LNP 0.6%, Queensland): Dead heat on two-party preferred. Primary votes: LNP 42% (40.6% in 2016), Labor 41% (37.6%), Greens 5% (6.4%), One Nation 7%, United Australia Party 4%. Sample: 567.

Reid (Liberal 4.7%, NSW): Liberals lead 52-48. Primary votes: Liberal 44% (48.8% in 2016), Labor 36% (36.3%), Greens 7% (8.5%), United Australia Party 6%. Sample: 577.

Higgins (Liberal 7.4%, Victoria): The Liberals lead 52-48 over the Greens, with Labor running third on the primary vote: Liberal 45% (52.% in 2016), Greens 29% (25.3%), Labor 18% (14.9%). Sample: 538.

Herbert (Labor 0.0%, Queensland): Dead heat on two-party preferred. Primary votes: Labor 31% (30.5% in 2016), LNP 32% (35.5%), Greens 5% (6.3%), One Nation 6% (13.5%), United Australia Party 9%. Sample not specified.

Gilmore (Liberal 0.7%, NSW): Labor leads 52-48. Primary votes: Labor 40% (39.2% in 2016), Liberal 26% (45.3%), Nationals 17% (didn’t run last time, hence the Liberal primary vote collapse), Greens 7% (10.5%), United Australia Party 2%. Sample not specified.

Dickson (LNP 1.7%, Queensland): LNP leads 51-49. Primary votes: LNP 41 (44.7% at 2016 election), Labor 35% (35.0%), Greens 10% (9.8%), United Australia Party 9%, One Nation 3%. Sample: 542.

Original post

The Guardian reports Essential Research has concluded its business for the campaign with a poll that reports a 51.5-48.5 lead for Labor, having decided to mark the occasion by reporting its results to the first decimal place. This compares with a rounded result of 52-48 last time. On the primary vote, the Coalition is on 38.5% (up, probably, from 38% last time), Labor is on 36.2% (up from 34%), the Greens are well down to 9.1% from an inflated-looking 12% last time, and One Nation are on 6.6% (down from 7%). Scott Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 42-31 to 39-32. The poll went to the effort to inquire about which campaign stories had registered with voters – I will be very interested to see the full numbers when Essential Research unloads its full report later today, but apparently Labor’s tax plans, the egging of Scott Morrison and the Daily Telegraph’s inspirational profile of Bill Shorten’s late mother all left an impression.

UPDATE: Full report from Essential Research here. It turns out respondents typed up their own responses on election news stories they had noticed and Essential has produced the results in word cloud form, which you can see in the release.

We can also expect national polls from Newspoll and Ipsos over the next day or two – and, starting at 10am this morning, the News Corp papers will today be treating us to an hourly schedule of YouGov Galaxy seat poll releases targeting (deep breath) Flynn at 10am; Macquarie at 11am; La Trobe at noon; Forde at 1pm; Reid at 2pm; Higgins at 3pm; Herbert at 4pm; Gilmore at 5pm; Deakin at 6pm; and Dickson in Queensland at 6pm. Except, it seems, the the Deakin poll is already with us, courtesy of today’s Herald Sun. It credits the Liberals with a lead of 51-49, or a 5.4% swing from the 2016 result. The primary votes are Liberal 44% (50.3% in 2016), Labor 37% (30.1%), Greens 9% (11.3%) and the United Australia Party 4%. The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 540.

Also:

• The Greens were hawking a poll on Monday conducted by Environmental Research and Counsel, an offshoot of Essential Media, suggesting Josh Frydenberg was in serious difficulty in Kooyong. The poll showed Frydenberg’s primary vote at 41%, slumping from 58% in 2016, with Greens candidate Julian Burnside on 21%, Labor’s Jana Stewart on 16%, and much-touted independent Oliver Yates lagging on 9%. However, Frydenberg maintained a two-party lead over the Greens of 52-48. Phillip Coorey in the Financial Review reported on Tuesday that the Liberals were more confident than that, believing Frydenberg’s primary vote to be at around 48%.

• Andrew Tillett in the Financial Review reported on Monday that Labor was becoming “increasingly bullish about picking up seats in Victoria and Western Australia”. Concerning the former, the report relates that Liberal strategists are “split on whether to pour resources into Higgins, where Liberal candidate Katie Allen is narrowly ahead, or concentrate on other Melbourne marginals such as La Trobe, Casey or Deakin”. As David Crowe of noted in the Sydney Morning Herald on Monday, the Coalition’s $4 billion East West Link motorway commitment was “seen by Labor as an attempt to hold the Liberal electorates of Casey, Deakin and La Trobe”, none of which it would be so high on its priorities list if it was feeling confident.

• A slightly different view of the situation in Western Australia is provided by Andrew Burrell of The Australian, who reports Labor has scaled back its ambitions in the state, which once ran to five seats. Swan is said to be Labor’s best chance of a gain, and Labor says its internal polling has Pearce at 50-50, but the Liberals claim to be slightly ahead. But Labor sources sound discouraged about Hasluck, and the party is no longer bothering with Canning. Stirling, however, is said to be “close”. Scott Morrison visited the state on Monday, paying special attention to Swan; Bill Shorten followed the next day, where he campaigned in Pearce.

Also today: Seat du jour, covering the Perth seat of Swan.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,601 comments on “Essential Research: 51.5-48.5 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 33
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  4. Rocketx2

    Read the fine print on Sportsbet early payout..

    We’ve paid out early on Labor!
    We’re declaring it early! Labor look to have such a stranglehold over this weekend’s Federal Election, that we’ve already paid out $1.3 MILLION to customers to have backed them to be Sworn in as the Next Government. (Single Bets only. Bets placed on Labor in the ‘Next Election – Sworn in Government’ market prior to 16th May 2019 only. Conditions apply.)Read Less

  5. Key Liberal seat in trouble
    Shannon Molloy

    A shock new poll has pointed to a devastating defeat for the Coalition in a key Victorian seat – the state that will play a major role in deciding the election outcome.

    Deakin in Melbourne’s east has swung significantly towards Labor, with support for the Liberal incumbent Michael Sukkar collapsing by more than six per cent.

    A YouGov Galaxy poll conducted for the Herald Sun spells bad news for Scott Morrison as the campaign enters its final days.

    Mr Sukkar is part of the Coalition’s far right faction and was one of the key forces behind last year’s chaotic attempt to install Peter Dutton as Prime Minister.

    Labor has seized on anger in the electorate, distributing materials reminding voters there of Mr Sukkar’s alliances with former PM and fellow hard-right figure Tony Abbott.

    Climate change has emerged as the key issue in Deakin too, with Mr Sukkar a prominent climate sceptic.

    Deakin is on a 65 per cent margin but the new poll shows Labor hopeful Shireen Morris has gained serious ground, increasing her primary vote to 37 per cent.

    That would whack the Liberals with a 5.4 per cent swing against it, or a two-party preferred result of 51 to 49 in favour of the Coalition.

    That tight result will spark concern in the government, which has been campaigning heavily in key Victorian seats.

  6. Deakin 3rd place 2001 says:
    Thursday, May 16, 2019 at 6:24 am.

    My take, much as I’d love to see Deakin fall, I think the Libs will hold it due to the Bible belt boomers. But La Trobe should definitely fall. Part of La Trobe fought a long war against a McDonalds to be located in Tecoma, for crying out loud. The hills are full of Nimbys.

    —
    That part of La Trobe is now in Casey.

  7. Itep – you’re really hunting out reasons to be pessimistic…

    I get it though … but nearly at the finish line.

  8. I think there was a state election where they paid out for one side and then the other side won. As a publicity stunt it’s really not that great.

  9. Labor’s pledge to introduce a tribunal for unpaid wage and entitlement claims could be a game-changer for underpaid workers in Australia, according to legal experts.

    Labor leader Bill Shorten announced the move on Wednesday saying “we’ve seen too many examples of systemic wage theft but lengthy and costly court proceedings prevent and deter workers from recovering wage underpayments”.

    The plan would see a new tribunal attached to the Fair Work Commission that workers could call on to investigate their complaints.

    “It’s an excellent idea,” said Giri Sivaraman, employment law principal at lawyers Maurice Blackburn. “At the moment, if a worker wants to pursue a breach of award they have to go to the Federal Court or Federal Circuit Court which is slow and costly.

    “The tribunal would be fast and practical, more industrial and less legal [because it would be attached to the existing Fair Work Commission],” Mr Sivaraman said.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/finance-news/2019/05/15/labors-wage-theft-plan/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Morning%20News%20-%2020190516

  11. Many will walk after this election – they are incredibly frustrated with the direction their party has gone and have now basically given up. Which of course will mean the remnants will lurch even further to the right.

    Well if Sukkar does lose that’s one less RWNJ in the partyroom.

  15. The last two weekends we’ve had beautiful weather – sunny skies and warm.

    This weekend when I’m handing out HTVs it’s forecast for 15 degrees, rain and the chance of hail. 🙁

  17. I’m pretty sure Deakin is Pegasus territory. I’m believe she lives in Forest Hill which is neither forest nor hill. Just the sort of place that a Greens supporter would settle.

  19. Roman Quaedvlieg@quaedvliegs

    Actually, the constellation of agencies which make up Operation Sovereign Borders will keep the boats stopped, just like the last 5 years. This gimmick of claiming a Minister personally stops the boats is as cheap as a self-awarded trophy. Sunday will be like every other day.

  22. Australia Institute@TheAusInstitute
    22m22 minutes ago
    62 experts have signed an open letter, published in The Age today, urging the next Parliament of Australia — whoever wins — to make climate action a top priority. #auspol⁠ ⁠ #ausvotes⁠ ⁠

    :large

  23. William Bowe @ #11 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 6:33 am

    Now to sleep, perchance to dream.

    Kayjay:
    Goodnight sweet prince – may flights of angels……

    ————
    You guys do know that these lines are about death, right?

    Kayjay- I can’t think of a worse time to be contemplating William’s demise. I hope he’ll at least have enough consideration to wait until the counting’s done and dusted before doing any mortal coil shuffling ….we’re gonna need him!

  25. I think there was a state election where they paid out for one side and then the other side won. As a publicity stunt it’s really not that great.

    Oh, I don’t know, I’d think that the possibility of being paid for a losing bet would be pretty enticing to some.

  27. lizzie @ #48 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 7:32 am

    I couldn’t give a stuff about a mythical ‘surplus’ and wish that both sides would stop using it.

    But this will be interesting. Which CUTS will be introduced by Frydenberg? They won’t be called cuts, of course, they will be ‘adjustments’, or even spending increases 😆

    The Morrison government will unveil a new round of budget savings to pay for at least $1.2 billion in spending promises as Labor intensifies its campaign against cuts to services.

    The government has chosen the last days of the election campaign to reveal surprise savings to cover the cost of the promises it has made over the past five weeks, but it is ruling out a tax increase to fund its program.

    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/government-to-reveal-new-budget-savings-as-morrison-shorten-battle-for-votes-20190515-p51nqu.html

    Isn’t this the whole ridiculous Small Government/Neoliberal box and dice in one!?!

    We can’t put up taxes, or Grover Norquist might fly in on his dragon from America and smote us!

    Bloody idiots.

  28. David Somerfield @DavidSomerfield

    A woman on @abcnews who owns 30 (That’s THIRTY) hairdressing salons saying she can’t afford Shortens promise of a wage rise.

    JC on a fucking bike I despair of these greedy bastards.

    ******

    @cheryl_kernot

    And I have been told by a former manager what a miserable employer she was.

  29. Is anyone feeling confident yet?

    Kieren Gilbert on Sky this morning used the word ‘landslide’ as a possibility. He suggests the seats of Bennelong and Menzies should be interesting to watch.
    I can’t wait to watch Morrison fail.

  33. GG

    If Labor wins, I would like the results and analysis to be drawn out over at least three days. I want to enjoy a sl-o-o-w rise to the climax of joy.

  35. The Guardian editorial:

    “The Coalition has neither credible policies nor a competent team, and Guardian Australia believes it has failed the test for re-election.”

    and goes on:

    “We have always considered Guardian Australia readers capable of making their own voting decisions, but in 2019 we urge readers to heed the fact that Labor is the only party with a credible climate policy and a chance of forming government after Saturday.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/16/guardian-view-australian-election-vote-climate-emergency

  38. I’m encouraged to see Labor’s PV above 36, albeit not by much. Would rather it be 37-38 to give me anything more than guarded optimism. Still Labor + Greens is above 45 – which is a good starting point.

    38.5 for LNP is fine: that’s a 4% swing away from the government on Primaries: they won’t get anything like all that back on preferences from the various populist, RWNJ and opportunists running in this election.

    ‘My waters’ tell me that individual seats are going to be much tighter the national swing. OK – feel free to unload on me for being a bedwetter in 3 … 2 … 1 …

  40. I love to see Nats and libs break up and blame themselves like for next 6 months while ScoMo is still leader.

    Clive and One Nation ripping themselves a new one.

  44. Andrew_Earlwood @ #86 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 8:09 am

    I’m encouraged to see Labor’s PV above 36, albeit not by much. Would rather it be 37-38 to give me anything more than guarded optimism. Still Labor + Greens is above 45 – which is a good starting point.

    38.5 for LNP is fine: that’s a 4% swing away from the government on Primaries: they won’t get anything like all that back on preferences from the various populist, RWNJ and opportunists running in this election.

    ‘My waters’ tell me that individual seats are going to be much tighter the national swing. OK – feel free to unload on me for being a bedwetter in 3 … 2 … 1 …

    Make sure you’ve got plenty of coloured confetti in that balloon you are attempting to prick.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3G3irPEDXlo

  46. If it goes the way it looks, Barnaby’s drunken rage will be a sight to behold. If they somehow win, his drunken red-faced shrieks of Schadenfreude will be excruciating.

    Either way, there’ll be lots of red-faced drunk yelling.

  47. Murdoch’s Oz seems to be coming to terms with the likely election result. Perhaps it’s this piece.

    LIVE POLITICS NOW
    Shorten leads in final stretch
    New polls show Bill Shorten with a national lead and a big swing in a key Victorian seat.
    1 HOUR AGO By RICHARD FERGUSON

  49. Antony Green said on the Party Room podcast that pre-polls added late in the count are unlikely to make much difference to the earlier results based on Election Day votes. The factors that resulted in pre-poll votes pulling back ALP leads in several seats in the Vic election are unlikely to be relevant here across the board. There may be a few exceptions in either direction at individual seat level. Main effect is that seat results may not be called until late in the night – E.g. 11ish.

  50. Sportsbet has paid out $37.50 on my $30 bet from 3 weeks ago … so I immediately put $30 back on at $1.16.

    It won’t get me much back, but a win is a win

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