Update: YouGov Galaxy seat polls
As explained below, the News Corp papers are releasing YouGov Galaxy seat polls today on an hourly schedule. The results will be updated here as they become available. The polls were conducted Monday and Tuesday from samples of around 550.
Deakin (Liberal 6.4%, Victoria): Liberals lead 51-49. Primary votes: Liberal 44% (50.3% in 2016), Labor 37% (30.1%), Greens 9% (11.3%) and the United Australia Party 4%. Sample: 540.
Flynn (LNP 1.0%, Queensland): The LNP leads 53-47. Primary votes: LNP 37% (37.1% in 2016), Labor 33% (33.4%), Greens 3% (2.8%), United Australia Party 11%, One Nation 7%. Sample not specified.
Macquarie (Labor 2.2%, NSW): Labor leads 53-47. Primary votes: Labor 43% (35.5% in 2016), Liberal 42% (38.2%), Greens 8% (11.2%), United Australia Party 5%. Sample: 573.
La Trobe (Liberal 3.2%, Victoria): Dead heat on two-party preferred. Primary votes: Liberal 43% (42.2% in 2016), Labor 39% (31.4%), Greens 7% (10.6%), United Australia Party 3%. Sample: 541.
Forde (LNP 0.6%, Queensland): Dead heat on two-party preferred. Primary votes: LNP 42% (40.6% in 2016), Labor 41% (37.6%), Greens 5% (6.4%), One Nation 7%, United Australia Party 4%. Sample: 567.
Reid (Liberal 4.7%, NSW): Liberals lead 52-48. Primary votes: Liberal 44% (48.8% in 2016), Labor 36% (36.3%), Greens 7% (8.5%), United Australia Party 6%. Sample: 577.
Higgins (Liberal 7.4%, Victoria): The Liberals lead 52-48 over the Greens, with Labor running third on the primary vote: Liberal 45% (52.% in 2016), Greens 29% (25.3%), Labor 18% (14.9%). Sample: 538.
Herbert (Labor 0.0%, Queensland): Dead heat on two-party preferred. Primary votes: Labor 31% (30.5% in 2016), LNP 32% (35.5%), Greens 5% (6.3%), One Nation 6% (13.5%), United Australia Party 9%. Sample not specified.
Gilmore (Liberal 0.7%, NSW): Labor leads 52-48. Primary votes: Labor 40% (39.2% in 2016), Liberal 26% (45.3%), Nationals 17% (didn’t run last time, hence the Liberal primary vote collapse), Greens 7% (10.5%), United Australia Party 2%. Sample not specified.
Dickson (LNP 1.7%, Queensland): LNP leads 51-49. Primary votes: LNP 41 (44.7% at 2016 election), Labor 35% (35.0%), Greens 10% (9.8%), United Australia Party 9%, One Nation 3%. Sample: 542.
Original post
The Guardian reports Essential Research has concluded its business for the campaign with a poll that reports a 51.5-48.5 lead for Labor, having decided to mark the occasion by reporting its results to the first decimal place. This compares with a rounded result of 52-48 last time. On the primary vote, the Coalition is on 38.5% (up, probably, from 38% last time), Labor is on 36.2% (up from 34%), the Greens are well down to 9.1% from an inflated-looking 12% last time, and One Nation are on 6.6% (down from 7%). Scott Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 42-31 to 39-32. The poll went to the effort to inquire about which campaign stories had registered with voters – I will be very interested to see the full numbers when Essential Research unloads its full report later today, but apparently Labor’s tax plans, the egging of Scott Morrison and the Daily Telegraph’s inspirational profile of Bill Shorten’s late mother all left an impression.
UPDATE: Full report from Essential Research here. It turns out respondents typed up their own responses on election news stories they had noticed and Essential has produced the results in word cloud form, which you can see in the release.
We can also expect national polls from Newspoll and Ipsos over the next day or two – and, starting at 10am this morning, the News Corp papers will today be treating us to an hourly schedule of YouGov Galaxy seat poll releases targeting (deep breath) Flynn at 10am; Macquarie at 11am; La Trobe at noon; Forde at 1pm; Reid at 2pm; Higgins at 3pm; Herbert at 4pm; Gilmore at 5pm; Deakin at 6pm; and Dickson in Queensland at 6pm. Except, it seems, the the Deakin poll is already with us, courtesy of today’s Herald Sun. It credits the Liberals with a lead of 51-49, or a 5.4% swing from the 2016 result. The primary votes are Liberal 44% (50.3% in 2016), Labor 37% (30.1%), Greens 9% (11.3%) and the United Australia Party 4%. The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 540.
Also:
• The Greens were hawking a poll on Monday conducted by Environmental Research and Counsel, an offshoot of Essential Media, suggesting Josh Frydenberg was in serious difficulty in Kooyong. The poll showed Frydenberg’s primary vote at 41%, slumping from 58% in 2016, with Greens candidate Julian Burnside on 21%, Labor’s Jana Stewart on 16%, and much-touted independent Oliver Yates lagging on 9%. However, Frydenberg maintained a two-party lead over the Greens of 52-48. Phillip Coorey in the Financial Review reported on Tuesday that the Liberals were more confident than that, believing Frydenberg’s primary vote to be at around 48%.
• Andrew Tillett in the Financial Review reported on Monday that Labor was becoming “increasingly bullish about picking up seats in Victoria and Western Australia”. Concerning the former, the report relates that Liberal strategists are “split on whether to pour resources into Higgins, where Liberal candidate Katie Allen is narrowly ahead, or concentrate on other Melbourne marginals such as La Trobe, Casey or Deakin”. As David Crowe of noted in the Sydney Morning Herald on Monday, the Coalition’s $4 billion East West Link motorway commitment was “seen by Labor as an attempt to hold the Liberal electorates of Casey, Deakin and La Trobe”, none of which it would be so high on its priorities list if it was feeling confident.
• A slightly different view of the situation in Western Australia is provided by Andrew Burrell of The Australian, who reports Labor has scaled back its ambitions in the state, which once ran to five seats. Swan is said to be Labor’s best chance of a gain, and Labor says its internal polling has Pearce at 50-50, but the Liberals claim to be slightly ahead. But Labor sources sound discouraged about Hasluck, and the party is no longer bothering with Canning. Stirling, however, is said to be “close”. Scott Morrison visited the state on Monday, paying special attention to Swan; Bill Shorten followed the next day, where he campaigned in Pearce.
Also today: Seat du jour, covering the Perth seat of Swan.
Is it possible that now we are in the final two days, a lot of prepolling has occurred and that everyone now knows that it is obvious that this dysfunctional mob of coal loving, climate denial cave dwellers will be consigned to political irrelevancy that the papers have given up, the media commentators have given up and just jumped on board?
Can someone explain to me the significance of Sportsbet paying out TODAY to those who voted for an ALP majority?
I suspect they have crunched the odds, and decided that there is no likely path to Coalition victory?
Or is there something more subtle at play here with respect to the odds and money laid?
I have always sniffed a bit a gambling, but am now suddenly reminded of the fact that Karl Friedrich Gauss and Leonard Euler both did work in statistics to help their gambling Prince benefactors.
So, gambling has been a driver for some of the greatest mathematic discoveries, and hence is understandable by analysis, and does tell us something sensible.
Thanks for that max, interesting to hear.
Not liking Higgins Liberal candidate, Katie Allen’s contribution on News Brekkie. She strikes me as yet another Liberal parrot, utterly useless without the talking points. She mentioned that she is a scientist about 4 times in response to questions about climate change. What does that even mean? There are scientists who are also climate change deniers, and Allen is a paediatrician, not a climate expert.
I’d love it if McLeod took this seat but it may be a bridge too far. I saw Fiona, and met Jason Ball and RDN at the pre poll last week.
“A-E
How often do you change your political sheets?”
Daily, sometimes on the hour, in this election campaign …
A-E
LOL.
Good Morning
Looking good for Saturday.
I am looking forward to the end of the fear and division peddled by the right as Labor takes charge.
🙂
A_E….Labor win. Don’t worry. The field campaigns will draw in Labor support in the places that matter. The lived experiences of voters over the last 5 years will drive them away from the LNP. We will win the tough ones.
William is quoted in this article as well.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-16/federal-election-threat-to-next-generation-of-liberal-leaders/11115246
‘Deakin 3rd place 2001 says:
Thursday, May 16, 2019 at 8:20 am
She mentioned that she is a scientist about 4 times in response to questions about climate change. What does that even mean?’
It means the Promise of Australia.
Sportsbet have a market for next opposition leader, ordered by odds for Libs;
1. Morrison
2. Frydenberg
3. Dutton
4. Taylor
5. Abbott
6. Porter
7. Joyce
Frydenberg is probably the ‘nice guy’ of them all, but hasnt demonstrated he has the instinct of a leader.
Porter is probably the least damaged of them, and maybe their best option.
Opposition leader Joyce has a ring to it.
Interesting to hear Kieran Gilbert taking about the possibility of a big win. Hope he’s right. Would like to see him absolutely bore it up Kenny on election night.
guytaur says:
Thursday, May 16, 2019 at 8:21 am
Good Morning
Looking good for Saturday.
I am looking forward to the end of the fear and division peddled by the right as Labor takes charge.
The campaign to destroy the incoming Labor Government will commence on Sunday 19 May. It will have the usual array of contributors.
Confessions
Porter is as slippery as when it comes to rewriting both history and current reality.
He did a runner because people were starting to notice that Treasurer Porter had turned a thumping swag of money in the kitty when the Liberals gained government to a smashing state debt. He managed this during the Mother of All Mining Booms.
Not that I’ll be watching – will be at Petersham RSL where they’ll hopefully have the abc on, though I think Albo might be on the nine coverage
Angus Taylor should be in jail along with Barnaby Joyce, for Defrauding the Commonwealth.
briefly @ #112 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 8:24 am
And I’m hoping that the win is big enough, (gets down on her knees to pray), that Labor can tell The Greens to shove their ‘demands’ where the solar energy don’t shine!
I just put the leftover $7.50 on Tony Abbott @$2.00.
Zali wins, fantastic. Great job. Well done Angus.
If Abbott falls over the line, I can take my $15 and buy a cheeky Barossa red and drown my sorrows
Douglas and Milko @ #100 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 8:19 am
1. The bookies are not your friend.
2. Paying out early is a good publicity.
3. Payout is not substantial given the size of the market. Don’t forget they are holding the loser bets.
4. To bet with these bookies you have to open an account. So, you have an easy way to bet on something else in future.
5. So, money is credited to that account.
6. Paying out early facilitates churn of the money. For example, someone bets $100 on Labor at $1.15. They get $115 credited to that account. Punter decides to bet another $100 on something else because they are feeling good. At some stage they lose. Bookie then has won $85 from the Punter.
William – I’m guessing ‘BLAH’ is not some acronym we should be aware of?
Rainy day in Bunbury, WA today. So far I’ve only seen 1 sign up in a yard for the Labor candidate and none for Ms Marino. On that basis can we call it a Labor win now and not bother counting the votes?
The real impact of Sukkar losing will be internal – with Bastiaan, Sukkar rules the religious right deliberately recruited to the Liberal Party to give numbers
The God makes babies demographic
This grouping is particularly despised by the Old Guard (Cormack as the example) hence the Division being dysfunctional
Significant of those with wealth and prominent in the Old Guard are agitating for Sukkar’s defeat – in an effort to rid the Division of him
Note the numbers of Victorian MP’s who supported Dutton – including because of Sukkar’s threats to preselection (think Banks)
There will be dancing in the streets by the Victorian Division if Sukkar loses
Interesting too is the Ad Man from Mad Men interaction – with Sukkar a God makes babies believer, anti climate change, same sex relationships etc etc so tarred with the same brush
But Sukkar led the numbers for Dutton – against the anyone against Turnbull/anyone against Dutton demographic
And make no mistake it was Ad Man promoting himself against BOTH Turnbull (progressive) AND Dutton so scheming his anti Turnbull/Dutton numbers all along
And Sukkar was Dutton – with the promise of Deputy Leader and Treasurer BECAUSE he could deliver the Victorian numbers (by threat because of control of the Victorian Division numbers due to religious right recruitment)
And behind that sits Mr and Mrs Bastiaan
Toxic
If you frequent certain restaurants in Melbourne you will note the total lack of acknowledgements – and the request for distant tables (now unwritten)
I am really hoping that polling by the Greens in Higgins is recording the drop in primary vote correctly
The Deakin poll does confirm the trend.
Both reflecting that yes Victorians are still happy to bring out their baseball bats after the State election.
Basically It means a huge defeat for the extreme right from “The Massachusetts of Australia”.
Not bad for the new battleground state.
lizzie @ #81 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 8:06 am
Oh Lizzie
you would love
‘I wanna do you slowly’
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVuJLiuo5zc
‘bug1 says:
Thursday, May 16, 2019 at 8:23 am
Sportsbet have a market for next opposition leader, ordered by odds for Libs;
1. Morrison
2. Frydenberg
3. Dutton
4. Taylor
5. Abbott
6. Porter
7. Joyce
Frydenberg is probably the ‘nice guy’ of them all, but hasnt demonstrated he has the instinct of a leader.
Porter is probably the least damaged of them, and maybe their best option.’
The election was a referendum on Morrison so he is badly damaged goods.
Frydenberg delivered nothing except record CO2 emissions and record energy prices as energy minister. Nothing. No policy.
Frydenberg delivered nothing as environment minister except an accelerated extinction rate, a gutted regulatory regime, a half dead Reef and a conga line of dead rivers.
Frydenberg’s role in this campaign has been to soil his integrity underpants. The Speers interview, for example, exposed around half a dozen straight out lies.
C@t…the Lib-kin will align themselves with the Lib-Libs in order to defeat Labor as often as possible. It’s interesting to see the polling suggests their vote may be receding, reflecting the desire of voters to secure a change of government above all. I hope they decide to dissolve themselves. Reform will become much more achievable if their anti-Labor pop songs were to fade away.
A_E
Come on chin up, it is nearly over just the last of the Newspoll BS to get over. I predict Newspoll will keep batting for the Libs.
Itep, still in the doldrums I see. You Westies are just as bad as we Queenslanders,LOL!
Too many past disappointments.
Saturday will put a smile on your face, despite Newspoll/ Galaxy.
‘Chinda63 says:
Thursday, May 16, 2019 at 8:27 am
I just put the leftover $7.50 on Tony Abbott @$2.00.
Zali wins, fantastic. Great job. Well done Angus.
If Abbott falls over the line, I can take my $15 and buy a cheeky Barossa red and drown my sorrows’
For $5 you would get a Barossa red that would scrape the plaque off your dentures.
Boer….you seem to be arguing the case for F to become the next Lib-Lib leader. You’ve listed all the pre-requisites. He has passed.
The new liberal leadership spill rules apply in opposition, too right? It will take two-thirds to spill the Opposition leader?
It makes picking up the pieces after a loss harder, in some ways. You need to take a punt on who amongst the younger crowd will be best in 3 or 6 years time.
You can’t have a Brendan Nelson type to hold the fort and let things smooth over.
We had a guessing game on this at work six months ago… I went with Abbott at the time. And assuming he doesn’t lose to Stegall I think he’ll walk it in. He’s a very effective Opposition Leader.
b
The thought had crossed my mind. But looking down that list, the cupboard is remarkably bare.
briefly @ #106 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 6:21 am
Glad to see you seem to be in a better frame of mind than you’ve been in the last couple of days.
Virginia Trioli would make an excellent politician she has the baby interaction down pat
Boerwar
The Libs in WA are so good with money that they inherited a state debt of about $3 billion and increased it by about $3 billion in each and every year of their rule. A neat trick when there is an uber minng boom on.
Greensborough Growler @ #77 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 8:04 am
No. The only path to victory is 3 more days of panic. Panic, panic, panic like it’s 50/50!
Rocketx2
Read the fine print on Sportsbet early payout..
We’ve paid out early on Labor!
We’re declaring it early! Labor look to have such a stranglehold over this weekend’s Federal Election, that we’ve already paid out $1.3 MILLION to customers to have backed them to be Sworn in as the Next Government. (Single Bets only. Bets placed on Labor in the ‘Next Election – Sworn in Government’ market prior to 16th May 2019 only. Conditions apply.)Read Less
The 1.3 million would include the stakes, so at around say 1.33 say av over the last three years they have paid out 400k in winnings,,, small feed, and they’ll make that back in free publicity.. the water coolers queue will be lining up with people who beat he bookies and got paid out early, there by then giving Sportsbet their free publicity. Their owners are very clever in terms of the social media and getting their brand across…
Boerwar;
Libs have a difficult choice to make, Dutton-Taylor-Abbott would be falling back to the hard right that got them into trouble, and they rejected when they chose Morrison over Dutton.
Morrison is committing to a reject.
Frydenberg; as you mention is damaged, he is friendly and harmless, so people like him, but he isnt taking anyone anywhere.
Porter; Has some skeletons from state treasurer as mentioned above (i wasnt aware), but most of the general public wouldnt be aware, but he is WA so wont bring a bounce in a state vote as happens sometimes.
If i was a gambler, i would probably put money on Morrison keeping it, because they will likely not accept the blame themselves and think the electorate got it wrong…
I went with Abbott at the time. And assuming he doesn’t lose to Stegall I think he’ll walk it in. He’s a very effective Opposition Leader.
Nope. Nope. Nope. The nation is hip to that guy’s jive. He is a much-diminished politician.
Boer….It would be nice to think the next Lib-Lib PM will not be in the Parliament after Saturday; that they will need to overhaul themselves from the ground up before they can compete. We will see. They deserve 25 years in the political wilderness, to be driven to distraction by their various clones, echoes and in-laws.
GG,
Yes. Have been for 18 months, subject to the odd fluctuation.Will no doubt have a panic at some point before it’s called though.
I posted this as the first comment on the latest Liberal Lies post on Facebook.
I’m not sure it does any good. I don’t even know whether the liberals can block comments they don’t like from appearing on their general Facebook pages and ads.
Anyhoo: I’ve tried to post a similar comment on every single liberal scare campaign ad I’ve seen on social media: I reckon I’ve done about 300 such posts. Travelling around the country it’s as close as I’ve come to actually campaigning this election …
________
“You have no plans. Only prayers.
Your ‘back in black’ budget stunt is a hoax based on the fantasy of never ending iron ore exports and a return to boom time steaming coal exports. Growth in the economy has tanked – and you bear direct responsibility for that with with your largesse for the top end and austerity for the rest of us killing consumer demand. Dead wage growth, part time work only, cuts and crack downs to the poor:
the Reserve Bank has already called it. Economic growth is dead. Your surplus will never ever happen.
You’ve doubled the debt. Even though you didn’t have an external crisis like the GFC to contend with.
There is no national building program. Just endless pork for mates. $450 million for a miners marketing PR con job – the GBR Foundation. ScoMo and Joshie’s hands are all over that one. It disqualified you from ever being considered fit for public office.
You blew a $40 billion nations building plan – a fibre based NBN – in favour of a copper relic which you were warned wasn’t fit for purpose. It will have to be replaced within 8 years: there is no pathway to upgrade FTTN to full fibre FTTP – you have to ‘start again’ for that last mile.
Remember your lies over school halls and insulation: well the fact of the matter is that those halls and insulation systems will be used and useful for decades after your fake NBN is switched off. Plus those Labor programs kept the economy running when the rest of the world went into the worst recession in 70 years.
You are vandals.
CO2 emissions are going up. You have no climate change policy.
Your policy to protect existing farm land, remnant bush and our waterways is the same as it always has been: rip it up, cut it down, dig it out and extract the last drop of life out of it. And for what? The profits of your mates. Certainly not the little guys.
All you have now is lies. Like this Facebook ad.
Be gone. You robbers. Be gone.”
I’m particularly hoping that the Front for National Socialism, ON, lose ground.
Boerwar @ #130 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 8:41 am
I’ll guess it will be Frydenberg and Hastie. The Libs will facilitate the NEG legislation that is Labor and Liberal policy. Once passed that, the fight will go back to traditional economic policy issues.
3.48 million prepoll votes.
Wow just wow.
I’m surprised Campbell Newman hasn’t thrown his hat into the ring yet.
C@t
“The nation is hip to that guy’s jive.”
Yes – but the nation doesn’t get to vote, do they?
C@t & Zoid at #20
Greg who? Jennet or Hunt
I have a feeling Abbott is gone in Waringah…….he will blame everyone else for his demise except the person responsible………himself.
Observer :
Thursday, May 16, 2019 at 8:32 am
Interesting post. Sukkar has the same level of nastiness, meanness as Dutton, politics being far better off in the absence of both of them.