Essential Research: 51.5-48.5 to Labor

Labor maintains a modest yet decisive lead in the final Essential poll for the campaign, as YouGov Galaxy prepares to unload a barrage of seat polls throughout the day.

Update: YouGov Galaxy seat polls

As explained below, the News Corp papers are releasing YouGov Galaxy seat polls today on an hourly schedule. The results will be updated here as they become available. The polls were conducted Monday and Tuesday from samples of around 550.

Deakin (Liberal 6.4%, Victoria): Liberals lead 51-49. Primary votes: Liberal 44% (50.3% in 2016), Labor 37% (30.1%), Greens 9% (11.3%) and the United Australia Party 4%. Sample: 540.

Flynn (LNP 1.0%, Queensland): The LNP leads 53-47. Primary votes: LNP 37% (37.1% in 2016), Labor 33% (33.4%), Greens 3% (2.8%), United Australia Party 11%, One Nation 7%. Sample not specified.

Macquarie (Labor 2.2%, NSW): Labor leads 53-47. Primary votes: Labor 43% (35.5% in 2016), Liberal 42% (38.2%), Greens 8% (11.2%), United Australia Party 5%. Sample: 573.

La Trobe (Liberal 3.2%, Victoria): Dead heat on two-party preferred. Primary votes: Liberal 43% (42.2% in 2016), Labor 39% (31.4%), Greens 7% (10.6%), United Australia Party 3%. Sample: 541.

Forde (LNP 0.6%, Queensland): Dead heat on two-party preferred. Primary votes: LNP 42% (40.6% in 2016), Labor 41% (37.6%), Greens 5% (6.4%), One Nation 7%, United Australia Party 4%. Sample: 567.

Reid (Liberal 4.7%, NSW): Liberals lead 52-48. Primary votes: Liberal 44% (48.8% in 2016), Labor 36% (36.3%), Greens 7% (8.5%), United Australia Party 6%. Sample: 577.

Higgins (Liberal 7.4%, Victoria): The Liberals lead 52-48 over the Greens, with Labor running third on the primary vote: Liberal 45% (52.% in 2016), Greens 29% (25.3%), Labor 18% (14.9%). Sample: 538.

Herbert (Labor 0.0%, Queensland): Dead heat on two-party preferred. Primary votes: Labor 31% (30.5% in 2016), LNP 32% (35.5%), Greens 5% (6.3%), One Nation 6% (13.5%), United Australia Party 9%. Sample not specified.

Gilmore (Liberal 0.7%, NSW): Labor leads 52-48. Primary votes: Labor 40% (39.2% in 2016), Liberal 26% (45.3%), Nationals 17% (didn’t run last time, hence the Liberal primary vote collapse), Greens 7% (10.5%), United Australia Party 2%. Sample not specified.

Dickson (LNP 1.7%, Queensland): LNP leads 51-49. Primary votes: LNP 41 (44.7% at 2016 election), Labor 35% (35.0%), Greens 10% (9.8%), United Australia Party 9%, One Nation 3%. Sample: 542.

Original post

The Guardian reports Essential Research has concluded its business for the campaign with a poll that reports a 51.5-48.5 lead for Labor, having decided to mark the occasion by reporting its results to the first decimal place. This compares with a rounded result of 52-48 last time. On the primary vote, the Coalition is on 38.5% (up, probably, from 38% last time), Labor is on 36.2% (up from 34%), the Greens are well down to 9.1% from an inflated-looking 12% last time, and One Nation are on 6.6% (down from 7%). Scott Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 42-31 to 39-32. The poll went to the effort to inquire about which campaign stories had registered with voters – I will be very interested to see the full numbers when Essential Research unloads its full report later today, but apparently Labor’s tax plans, the egging of Scott Morrison and the Daily Telegraph’s inspirational profile of Bill Shorten’s late mother all left an impression.

UPDATE: Full report from Essential Research here. It turns out respondents typed up their own responses on election news stories they had noticed and Essential has produced the results in word cloud form, which you can see in the release.

We can also expect national polls from Newspoll and Ipsos over the next day or two – and, starting at 10am this morning, the News Corp papers will today be treating us to an hourly schedule of YouGov Galaxy seat poll releases targeting (deep breath) Flynn at 10am; Macquarie at 11am; La Trobe at noon; Forde at 1pm; Reid at 2pm; Higgins at 3pm; Herbert at 4pm; Gilmore at 5pm; Deakin at 6pm; and Dickson in Queensland at 6pm. Except, it seems, the the Deakin poll is already with us, courtesy of today’s Herald Sun. It credits the Liberals with a lead of 51-49, or a 5.4% swing from the 2016 result. The primary votes are Liberal 44% (50.3% in 2016), Labor 37% (30.1%), Greens 9% (11.3%) and the United Australia Party 4%. The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 540.

Also:

• The Greens were hawking a poll on Monday conducted by Environmental Research and Counsel, an offshoot of Essential Media, suggesting Josh Frydenberg was in serious difficulty in Kooyong. The poll showed Frydenberg’s primary vote at 41%, slumping from 58% in 2016, with Greens candidate Julian Burnside on 21%, Labor’s Jana Stewart on 16%, and much-touted independent Oliver Yates lagging on 9%. However, Frydenberg maintained a two-party lead over the Greens of 52-48. Phillip Coorey in the Financial Review reported on Tuesday that the Liberals were more confident than that, believing Frydenberg’s primary vote to be at around 48%.

• Andrew Tillett in the Financial Review reported on Monday that Labor was becoming “increasingly bullish about picking up seats in Victoria and Western Australia”. Concerning the former, the report relates that Liberal strategists are “split on whether to pour resources into Higgins, where Liberal candidate Katie Allen is narrowly ahead, or concentrate on other Melbourne marginals such as La Trobe, Casey or Deakin”. As David Crowe of noted in the Sydney Morning Herald on Monday, the Coalition’s $4 billion East West Link motorway commitment was “seen by Labor as an attempt to hold the Liberal electorates of Casey, Deakin and La Trobe”, none of which it would be so high on its priorities list if it was feeling confident.

• A slightly different view of the situation in Western Australia is provided by Andrew Burrell of The Australian, who reports Labor has scaled back its ambitions in the state, which once ran to five seats. Swan is said to be Labor’s best chance of a gain, and Labor says its internal polling has Pearce at 50-50, but the Liberals claim to be slightly ahead. But Labor sources sound discouraged about Hasluck, and the party is no longer bothering with Canning. Stirling, however, is said to be “close”. Scott Morrison visited the state on Monday, paying special attention to Swan; Bill Shorten followed the next day, where he campaigned in Pearce.

Also today: Seat du jour, covering the Perth seat of Swan.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,601 comments on “Essential Research: 51.5-48.5 to Labor”

Comments Page 26 of 33
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  1. If Labor deliver a surplus i think they could go to a DD pretty easily.

    The trick will be holding of spending promises until the funding is there.

  2. We spoke to one of our ex-neighbours from Sydney this afternoon on the phone. A very pleasant convo it was, too.

    After catching up on the goss and how everyone was going, she mentioned that she had already voted.

    “I voted Liberal,” she told us proudly.

    “Uh huh,” I replied. HI didn’t say anything.

    “Well, c’mon. How did you vote? I hope it wasn’t Labor, ’cause they’re going to fuck this country sideways if they get in!”

    I modestly admitted to intending to vote Labor.

    “Wot?” she exclaimed. She literally couldn’t believe it. Couldn’t believe anyone at all could want “that bloody Bill Shorten” as PM. The incredulity came down the phone line, thick and rich.

    I’d never heard her so revved up over politics. Something, or someone, has gotten to her.

    But I do get this a lot from Libs. They just cannot accept that anyone could possibly think any other way. Some are literally open-mouthed at the possibility of the other side of politics having any credibility at all.

    It’s not so much that they’re partisans – we have plenty here too – but more that they’re prepared to express their partisanship so openly in ordinary conversation, to the point of physically gaping at you if you don’t see it their way.

    Anyone else encountered this?

  4. It should be a massacre.

    “When I just move the two poles to the right a few metres, it shows you actually missed the goal…”

  5. gough1 @ #1219 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 5:35 pm

    An efficiency dividend is money is cut to a department and they have to figure out how to make due (ie who to sack or what services to cut)

    Another few words for that are, dogging it by gutless wonder Coalition politicians who don’t want to be the ones in the hole for the decisions made.

  6. Overall perception of an alp win will influence the hungophobes. Should be worth a few votes.
    Everything is looking positive for a decisive win, barring a black swan.

  7. If Labor deliver a surplus i think they could go to a DD pretty easily.

    Yeah, nothing better than having the Government have to negotiate legislation with five new flavours of kook who got in with <5% of their state's vote!

  8. I remember being in serious denial about the 2010 election outcome. I was sure Labor were going to win a majority at that one and that certainly coloured my posts around that time.

  12. A_E

    I have been thinking the same – especially as this Saturday is the 45th Anniversary of the “Medibank” election.

    I figure the Liberals may be in some disarray, and Barnaby will be the Nats leader (if he wins his seat), so that could be just the time to go for it. Just make sure you bank up all the relevant bills to make it worthwhile, maybe even another Double Sitting (and thanks to your state NSW for forcing that clause into the Constitution – they wanted to make sure the smaller states could not permanently obstruct things even after a Double Dissolution!)

  14. CC –

    The size of the majority doesn’t matter in terms of governance.

    You well know this isn’t true.

    Winning with 76 would be almost a repeat of 2010 (or 2016 for that matter) – constant media speculation about stability of government regardless of the reality, immense scrutiny on every single ALP MP, and a single Craig Thomson means you’re screwed because you can’t afford to go to a by-election that you have to fight, etc.

    That constant tension is deadly for incumbents.

    Losing a few MPs along the way when you have a buffer of 5 or 6 is mildly embarrassing, but the lack of stakes means the media won’t care very much.

    I think the ALP will do a lot better than 76, but enough of this “a win is a win” nonsense.

  16. BB: I have been surprised by friends of the family, traditional Labor voters (or so i thought) voting Liberal, being very vocal about it.
    I suspect its the religion angle, very weak religious showing from parties this election but Morrison is evangelical, so they are all going straight to him i suspect.

  18. Has anyone else actually had any of these conversations where people actually offer their voting intention in conversation? I find this rarely happens, if ever.

  19. I love reading this been doing it before it was this the current site .net. However, I do not understand how such passionate people prefer to drop cash on gambling sites and not one the party they wish to succeed, whateber that may be. I yet again donated, I yet again went out there. I want a smashing Labor victory, probably wont happen but I prefer to dive in it.

  20. “It’s not so much that they’re partisans – we have plenty here too – but more that they’re prepared to express their partisanship so openly in ordinary conversation, to the point of physically gaping at you if you don’t see it their way.

    Anyone else encountered this?”

    Oh yeah. Absolute committed, dismissive, and impenetrable to any reasoned discussion. They will also complain about people being impolite over politics, when its exactly what they are doing.

    Me, i take a step back from them now as i dont need the grief for no return, and get a bit pissed at the disrespect involved.

    They will be unhappy people sunday morning though. 🙂

  23. Rocket Rocket @ #1262 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 5:50 pm

    A_E

    I have been thinking the same – especially as this Saturday is the 45th Anniversary of the “Medibank” election.

    I figure the Liberals may be in some disarray, and Barnaby will be the Nats leader (if he wins his seat), so that could be just the time to go for it. Just make sure you bank up all the relevant bills to make it worthwhile, maybe even another Double Sitting (and thanks to your state NSW for forcing that clause into the Constitution – they wanted to make sure the smaller states could not permanently obstruct things even after a Double Dissolution!)

    Labor will just put up all their legislation and create DD opportunities.
    Then flaunt it for all it’s worth in an improving economy.

    My guess is the Libs will fold.

  25. I’m waiting for reports and pictures of wheelie bins stuffed with documents for shredding lined up outside Ministers offices in Parliament House.

  26. Greensborough Growler
    You pre empted my memories with Whiskey on a Sunday
    Can still see my Dad singing along to it
    “Drinking buttermilk through the week …..”
    Thank you

  28. Bushfire Bill @ #1252 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 5:45 pm

    We spoke to one of our ex-neighbours from Sydney this afternoon on the phone. A very pleasant convo it was, too.

    After catching up on the goss and how everyone was going, she mentioned that she had already voted.

    “I voted Liberal,” she told us proudly.

    “Uh huh,” I replied. HI didn’t say anything.

    “Well, c’mon. How did you vote? I hope it wasn’t Labor, ’cause they’re going to fuck this country sideways if they get in!”

    I modestly admitted to intending to vote Labor.

    “Wot?” she exclaimed. She literally couldn’t believe it. Couldn’t believe anyone at all could want “that bloody Bill Shorten” as PM. The incredulity came down the phone line, thick and rich.

    I’d never heard her so revved up over politics. Something, or someone, has gotten to her.

    But I do get this a lot from Libs. They just cannot accept that anyone could possibly think any other way. Some are literally open-mouthed at the possibility of the other side of politics having any credibility at all.

    It’s not so much that they’re partisans – we have plenty here too – but more that they’re prepared to express their partisanship so openly in ordinary conversation, to the point of physically gaping at you if you don’t see it their way.

    Anyone else encountered this?

    It’s all about the franking credits!

  31. I remember being in serious denial about the 2010 election outcome. I was sure Labor were going to win a majority at that one and that certainly coloured my posts around that time.

    Last weekend, I decided to read some of the final election week posts here in 2010. It was brightly optimistic, with “Steady she goes” posts and when the idea that a hung parliament was even on the cards was floated, it was scoffed at with ridicule. And the thing was, it wasn’t some sort of delusional groupthink from “happy clappers.” The problem was people were over-relying on heuristics to the point of not being willing to even consider an extraordinary event (i.e. a sharper swing in QLD than expected.)

    A lesson to us all to be aware of our biases and blind-spots, and not over-rely on set conventional wisdom.

  35. bug1

    the evangelical religious freedom campaign is quite big but quiet – they deny it exists – but 129 schools have advised parents not to vote labor, and who knows how many churches – morrison whistles to this sector all time

    yes i had family labor say same thing this week – i was incredulous – falou is their new matyr, and labor the enemy

    who scripted this ? it is all too neat – will try to see its propaganda – having some progreesive relguous affiliation i am not impressed – hope labot strips all 129 schools of funding to start with, and removes subsidiies to churches. how many billions do church get in this country and they speak of freedoms being under threat!

  38. Big majorities are great for bragging rights and schadenfreude, but otherwise dont really matter a whole lot. Just ask Campbell Newman.

    Yes, the Senate may prove a hassle, but Labor would be unlikely to win a majority there even in a historic 1975-style landslide, and Shorten’s enough of a proven negotiator that I’m reasonably confident that it’ll be a productive three years.

  39. So with unemployment up, government debt through the roof, the ‘tough on borders’ approach accidently letting in the sort of people we promised would never be allowed in, our superior economic management leading to falling house prices, wages flatlining, the rivers dried up and international competitiveness through the floor while we just engage in a bit more internal sh*t fighting about the Nats and the Senate ticket order……
    I think we can all agree that how sh*t we are is not relevant, its really about how much worse all that would be under Labor.
    Or, as a prominent member of the Government puts it so eloquently: ‘Labor, Labor, Labor, Labor, Labor.’

  41. 1892CFC

    I think the Saints were a bit flattered by the scoreline against the Eagles who kicked 1.8 in the last quarter. Hoping for a good game Saturday. I think we’ll go OK but I find it hard to see us beating you guys. But afterwards if I can come home and watch a Labor win on TV it will more than make up fot it!

    I have enjoyed watching Darcy Moore this year – I remember hearing murmurs a few years ago about trading him! He is a an excellent ‘swing’ player and gee he looks like his dad when he plays!

  46. Expat

    I’m happy – only one word I didn’t know and it was clear from the context what that word meant!

    After trying to learn some German on and off for the last five years!

  49. IPSOS – ALP 51 (-1) LNP 49 (+1) from GhostWhoVotes.

    Interesting – could be very embarrassing for IPSOS on Saturday night.

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