Update: YouGov Galaxy seat polls
As explained below, the News Corp papers are releasing YouGov Galaxy seat polls today on an hourly schedule. The results will be updated here as they become available. The polls were conducted Monday and Tuesday from samples of around 550.
Deakin (Liberal 6.4%, Victoria): Liberals lead 51-49. Primary votes: Liberal 44% (50.3% in 2016), Labor 37% (30.1%), Greens 9% (11.3%) and the United Australia Party 4%. Sample: 540.
Flynn (LNP 1.0%, Queensland): The LNP leads 53-47. Primary votes: LNP 37% (37.1% in 2016), Labor 33% (33.4%), Greens 3% (2.8%), United Australia Party 11%, One Nation 7%. Sample not specified.
Macquarie (Labor 2.2%, NSW): Labor leads 53-47. Primary votes: Labor 43% (35.5% in 2016), Liberal 42% (38.2%), Greens 8% (11.2%), United Australia Party 5%. Sample: 573.
La Trobe (Liberal 3.2%, Victoria): Dead heat on two-party preferred. Primary votes: Liberal 43% (42.2% in 2016), Labor 39% (31.4%), Greens 7% (10.6%), United Australia Party 3%. Sample: 541.
Forde (LNP 0.6%, Queensland): Dead heat on two-party preferred. Primary votes: LNP 42% (40.6% in 2016), Labor 41% (37.6%), Greens 5% (6.4%), One Nation 7%, United Australia Party 4%. Sample: 567.
Reid (Liberal 4.7%, NSW): Liberals lead 52-48. Primary votes: Liberal 44% (48.8% in 2016), Labor 36% (36.3%), Greens 7% (8.5%), United Australia Party 6%. Sample: 577.
Higgins (Liberal 7.4%, Victoria): The Liberals lead 52-48 over the Greens, with Labor running third on the primary vote: Liberal 45% (52.% in 2016), Greens 29% (25.3%), Labor 18% (14.9%). Sample: 538.
Herbert (Labor 0.0%, Queensland): Dead heat on two-party preferred. Primary votes: Labor 31% (30.5% in 2016), LNP 32% (35.5%), Greens 5% (6.3%), One Nation 6% (13.5%), United Australia Party 9%. Sample not specified.
Gilmore (Liberal 0.7%, NSW): Labor leads 52-48. Primary votes: Labor 40% (39.2% in 2016), Liberal 26% (45.3%), Nationals 17% (didn’t run last time, hence the Liberal primary vote collapse), Greens 7% (10.5%), United Australia Party 2%. Sample not specified.
Dickson (LNP 1.7%, Queensland): LNP leads 51-49. Primary votes: LNP 41 (44.7% at 2016 election), Labor 35% (35.0%), Greens 10% (9.8%), United Australia Party 9%, One Nation 3%. Sample: 542.
Original post
The Guardian reports Essential Research has concluded its business for the campaign with a poll that reports a 51.5-48.5 lead for Labor, having decided to mark the occasion by reporting its results to the first decimal place. This compares with a rounded result of 52-48 last time. On the primary vote, the Coalition is on 38.5% (up, probably, from 38% last time), Labor is on 36.2% (up from 34%), the Greens are well down to 9.1% from an inflated-looking 12% last time, and One Nation are on 6.6% (down from 7%). Scott Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 42-31 to 39-32. The poll went to the effort to inquire about which campaign stories had registered with voters – I will be very interested to see the full numbers when Essential Research unloads its full report later today, but apparently Labor’s tax plans, the egging of Scott Morrison and the Daily Telegraph’s inspirational profile of Bill Shorten’s late mother all left an impression.
UPDATE: Full report from Essential Research here. It turns out respondents typed up their own responses on election news stories they had noticed and Essential has produced the results in word cloud form, which you can see in the release.
We can also expect national polls from Newspoll and Ipsos over the next day or two – and, starting at 10am this morning, the News Corp papers will today be treating us to an hourly schedule of YouGov Galaxy seat poll releases targeting (deep breath) Flynn at 10am; Macquarie at 11am; La Trobe at noon; Forde at 1pm; Reid at 2pm; Higgins at 3pm; Herbert at 4pm; Gilmore at 5pm; Deakin at 6pm; and Dickson in Queensland at 6pm. Except, it seems, the the Deakin poll is already with us, courtesy of today’s Herald Sun. It credits the Liberals with a lead of 51-49, or a 5.4% swing from the 2016 result. The primary votes are Liberal 44% (50.3% in 2016), Labor 37% (30.1%), Greens 9% (11.3%) and the United Australia Party 4%. The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 540.
Also:
• The Greens were hawking a poll on Monday conducted by Environmental Research and Counsel, an offshoot of Essential Media, suggesting Josh Frydenberg was in serious difficulty in Kooyong. The poll showed Frydenberg’s primary vote at 41%, slumping from 58% in 2016, with Greens candidate Julian Burnside on 21%, Labor’s Jana Stewart on 16%, and much-touted independent Oliver Yates lagging on 9%. However, Frydenberg maintained a two-party lead over the Greens of 52-48. Phillip Coorey in the Financial Review reported on Tuesday that the Liberals were more confident than that, believing Frydenberg’s primary vote to be at around 48%.
• Andrew Tillett in the Financial Review reported on Monday that Labor was becoming “increasingly bullish about picking up seats in Victoria and Western Australia”. Concerning the former, the report relates that Liberal strategists are “split on whether to pour resources into Higgins, where Liberal candidate Katie Allen is narrowly ahead, or concentrate on other Melbourne marginals such as La Trobe, Casey or Deakin”. As David Crowe of noted in the Sydney Morning Herald on Monday, the Coalition’s $4 billion East West Link motorway commitment was “seen by Labor as an attempt to hold the Liberal electorates of Casey, Deakin and La Trobe”, none of which it would be so high on its priorities list if it was feeling confident.
• A slightly different view of the situation in Western Australia is provided by Andrew Burrell of The Australian, who reports Labor has scaled back its ambitions in the state, which once ran to five seats. Swan is said to be Labor’s best chance of a gain, and Labor says its internal polling has Pearce at 50-50, but the Liberals claim to be slightly ahead. But Labor sources sound discouraged about Hasluck, and the party is no longer bothering with Canning. Stirling, however, is said to be “close”. Scott Morrison visited the state on Monday, paying special attention to Swan; Bill Shorten followed the next day, where he campaigned in Pearce.
Also today: Seat du jour, covering the Perth seat of Swan.
Cant the ALP still advertise online and in txts?
Simon² Katich® @ #1195 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 5:22 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lyByCDRX6gw
They left the ‘efficiency dividend’ until the last moment to try and protect Zed.
In practice these dividends are a way for governments to cut services and expenditures while forcing departments to make the decisions.
Cud Chewer @ #1194 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 5:26 pm
Yep……but…….they…….won’t
Ven
Not sure what State you are from but I have been in Queensland, Rockhampton for the past month and if you think you have had an over the top barrage of UAP adds in the rest of Australia it has been I expect far worse here. You could not drive anywhere without seeing his adds, you can not watch the football without an add in every break I mean every break, it has been a nightmare. That Jabba the Hut head has been bloody everywhere. This is where he wants the senate seat, his only chance of a victory and as stupid as I think the man is I think he knows it. My point The UAP vote in Reid dos not surprise me at all.
I cringe when I think of my early contributions here. I was in serious denial about Labor losing the 2013 election, and that desperation permiated every post I made.
Cud Chewer says:
Thursday, May 16, 2019 at 5:24 pm
Rex you’re lining yourself up to look like a proper golden turkey when Shorten wins
But surely Tricky Dicky De Natale will win given how easy it apparently is to win government from a pure progressive platform?
Come on, give us Dickson ffs
Don’t worry Asha, it’s all behind you.
Time for my Yoga, see what you mob have reduced me too. 🙂
Forgive my ignorance, but what the fuck is an efficiency dividend?
Would the combined result of all the individual seat polls be considered a useful resource ?
It would be a fair sample size by the time the last poll is released.
When was the last time a candidate lost a State Election seat and 7 months later a Federal seat both when her party was as the incumbent ? Katie Allen will go down in infamy. Always thought it a strange selection from the LNP when she got battered in the State election ?
“Cant the ALP still advertise online and in txts?”
From email last night
Roger,
It’s now past midnight and all TV and Radio advertising has officially stopped.
I’m urgently trying to book all available online spots, on social media and across the web, before the Liberals or Clive Palmer snap up the last of them.
Asha, it’s a nice way to say reduction in funding.
It’s hilarious really Morrison at the Press Club.
He’s had the freedom to say what he wants in his speech and then demonstrates complete contempt when asked questions.
Maybe they could add some graphics;
Question topic: National debt
Answer topic: Labor, Bill Shorten
Just to highlight this.
Sure most politicians do it, but maybe something like this might highlight it to the average punter and create a situation where they feel that they can no longer get away with it.
dave
says:
Thursday, May 16, 2019 at 5:25 pm
On Thursday, Mr Shorten used some of Mr Whitlam’s words when he said Australia had to choose between “the habits and fears of the past, or the demands and opportunities of the future”. In a play on Mr Whitlam’s famous introduction, “men and women of Australia”, Mr Shorten began with “women and men of Australia”.
________________________________
Of course he did. He told us his Prime Ministership was like being a DJ, sampling a little bit of this and a little bit of that from former ALP PM’s. It may not be entirely Shorten’s fault. His delivery is awful but his speechwriters should also be held responsible for regurgitating other peoples’ work.
Katie Allen was not the incumbent for the state seat of Prahran, it was already a Greens seat.
I got a text a while back, plus an email a little while ago
Where is the landslide someone asks?…………..I think Hawke got up with a majority of 8………..This was considered a good win for Labor and it was.
Hopefully, a majority of 8 (or more) will be more than enough this time, under normal circumstances, to give Labor not just one, but two terms. Someone pointed out that Gough’s majority in n’72 was 5………….
Labor has always done it tough in this regard. The fact that the Nationals can get about what?, 3% of the vote and get 11 seats is a bonus for for conservatives. The Greens get a similar PV and struggle to win a lower house seat.
For both the LNP and Labor, the days of a PV of over 40% look to be over.
An efficiency dividend is money is cut to a department and they have to figure out how to make due (ie who to sack or what services to cut)
A_E@5:11pm
I also I your thought. Why was Alby Schultz son mentioned in the polls? It is hard to believe that he is polling less tha Palmer.
I wouldn’t rule out either of the parties polling over 40% in future. It’ll probably be easier for the Coalition because their competitors are personality based so when those people retire the vote has to go somewhere.
OK I think my political nerdiness has reached a new level…
I may have got a postal vote for the sole purpose of getting a souvineer Senate ballot paper…
This time tomorrow night 99% of voters will think the alp are going to win, despite the msm’s bleating.
@theweeklytv
Meet the PR firm that gave us ScoMo #TheWeekly #auspol
It’s fuxking funny as.
BTW you could put a 20% efficiency dividend on the Defence Department and you’d still be sloshing around in the residual fat.
Tricot
says:
Thursday, May 16, 2019 at 5:33 pm
Where is the landslide someone asks?…………..I think Hawke got up with a majority of 8………..This was considered a good win for Labor and it was.
Hopefully, a majority of 8 (or more) will be more than enough this time, under normal circumstances
__________________________________
that was a much smaller parliament. 125 seats compared to 151.
Cud Chewer @ #1197 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 5:24 pm
We can only go on the evidence presented in the polling thus far.
Not sure this will work, but cant find non-facebook picture;
“New Daily’s analysis of negative vs positive commentary of political parties by Murdoch’s Sky News.”
Negative: ALP=194, GRN=28, LNP=27
Positive: LNP=32, PHON=26, ALP=16
(remove space prior to : (argh!!!)
http ://scontent.fmel3-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/60603770_10156013988671455_7071164130987606016_n.jpg?_nc_cat=106&_nc_ht=scontent.fmel3-1.fna&oh=5397a5bd426efc877eec8ef075587542&oe=5D645523
@pithicus
And what you make sure Labor wont win ?
Asha
Efficiency dividend supports the myth that by cutting staff numbers everyone will work harder and productivity will not fall.
It might work for one, maybe two years, but a squeeze for much longer results in taking on contract workers, supposedly better and cheaper.
It’s a downhill slope to lower quality services, cf Centrelink. (Only my opinion of course.)
After a relatively quiet election campaign, I’ve had about six robocalls from a “Private” number this afternoon.
Apparently Scumo is saying ‘It’s time to trust the coalitions economic management’
What a genius.
Doesn’t he know Labor has easily destroyed their credibility with that stunning series of ads about doubling the debt, presiding over the highest debt since federation and running deficit after deficit LOL…..oh, wait
I expect the Greens vote in Gilmore to be around 9%, and their will be a fair bit of leakage between all the tories. Go Fiona!!!
“Whitlam’s victory was quite small too given they’d won most of the seats in the previous election. As long as Labor fall over the line I will be happy not to have another 3 wasted years. This term of government has achieved nothing.”
I was pondering this only this morning as I swam down at Newcastle baths on this most beautiful of autumn days. The last three labor government’s have faced a choice approximately 18 months-2 years into their first term: whether or not to call a snap DD on their signature reform policy.
Whitlam went to the polls for DD on Medibank, won and got it through the next parliament. Hawke did the same for medicare in 1984. KRudd dogged it in February 2010 over the CRPS and the body politic is still suffering 9 years later.
I reckon we should be preparing for a DD in 18 months time starting on Monday: it’s the only way labor will likely get key reforms through. I don’t think Shorten will dog it like KRudd either.
@gough1
Apologies in advance for my pedantry. The phrase is “make do”.
“Make due” is a confusion that crept in because “do” and “due” are homophones for most people in the USA.
Terrific interview of Albo by Speers.
You can feel the expectation!
https://twitter.com/i/status/1128926115232305152
nath @ #1217 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 5:32 pm
Both speeches today were cringeworthy for their own reasons.
“And what you make sure Labor wont win ?”
huh? I think they’ll romp it in.
The evidence says that Labor is very likely to win.
GG
Rye Whiskey makes the band sound better
Makes your baby cuter, makes itself taste sweeter
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wMCSKISp5Tw
With Steve Martin playing banjo!
mundo @ #1227 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 5:39 pm
Bloody disappointing.
mundo @ #1236 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 5:43 pm
I know!
Cud Chewer @ #1241 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 5:40 pm
It should be a massacre.
Thanks guys.
They’ve been doing that where I work for years. It’s been very effective at reducing moral, stressing out managers, and pissing off customers, but rather less so at improving profits or productivity.
Whitlam’s 1972 election win was historic, but not a thumping of seats –
Party Labor Liberal/Country coalition
Seats won 67 seats 58 seats
Percentage 52.70% 47.30%
Swing Increase2.50% Decrease2.50%
Rudd also got 52.70% in 2007.
Historically Labor does not have big federal election wins:
https://www.facebook.com/InsidersABC/posts/2040950026016495?comment_id=2059897734121724&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R%22%7D
So to current election and quoting William’s Bludger Track numbers with Labor on 51.6%.
In context – looks to be a good solid number.
Barney
Fortunately I have been unable to follow Morrison’s waste-of-time appearance.
There were some political debates some time ago on TV in the USA where they had the question on the bottom of the screen for as long as the person was answering/non-answering just so the TV audience had a constant reminder of what was asked.
The National Press Club should have done that.
Lizzie
You are spot on. In my former Dept the Library which had proven its value many times, is now almost non existent. Easy target
When is the poll for Obrestgrouppenfuhrer Kartoffekop due?