Update: YouGov Galaxy seat polls
As explained below, the News Corp papers are releasing YouGov Galaxy seat polls today on an hourly schedule. The results will be updated here as they become available. The polls were conducted Monday and Tuesday from samples of around 550.
Deakin (Liberal 6.4%, Victoria): Liberals lead 51-49. Primary votes: Liberal 44% (50.3% in 2016), Labor 37% (30.1%), Greens 9% (11.3%) and the United Australia Party 4%. Sample: 540.
Flynn (LNP 1.0%, Queensland): The LNP leads 53-47. Primary votes: LNP 37% (37.1% in 2016), Labor 33% (33.4%), Greens 3% (2.8%), United Australia Party 11%, One Nation 7%. Sample not specified.
Macquarie (Labor 2.2%, NSW): Labor leads 53-47. Primary votes: Labor 43% (35.5% in 2016), Liberal 42% (38.2%), Greens 8% (11.2%), United Australia Party 5%. Sample: 573.
La Trobe (Liberal 3.2%, Victoria): Dead heat on two-party preferred. Primary votes: Liberal 43% (42.2% in 2016), Labor 39% (31.4%), Greens 7% (10.6%), United Australia Party 3%. Sample: 541.
Forde (LNP 0.6%, Queensland): Dead heat on two-party preferred. Primary votes: LNP 42% (40.6% in 2016), Labor 41% (37.6%), Greens 5% (6.4%), One Nation 7%, United Australia Party 4%. Sample: 567.
Reid (Liberal 4.7%, NSW): Liberals lead 52-48. Primary votes: Liberal 44% (48.8% in 2016), Labor 36% (36.3%), Greens 7% (8.5%), United Australia Party 6%. Sample: 577.
Higgins (Liberal 7.4%, Victoria): The Liberals lead 52-48 over the Greens, with Labor running third on the primary vote: Liberal 45% (52.% in 2016), Greens 29% (25.3%), Labor 18% (14.9%). Sample: 538.
Herbert (Labor 0.0%, Queensland): Dead heat on two-party preferred. Primary votes: Labor 31% (30.5% in 2016), LNP 32% (35.5%), Greens 5% (6.3%), One Nation 6% (13.5%), United Australia Party 9%. Sample not specified.
Gilmore (Liberal 0.7%, NSW): Labor leads 52-48. Primary votes: Labor 40% (39.2% in 2016), Liberal 26% (45.3%), Nationals 17% (didn’t run last time, hence the Liberal primary vote collapse), Greens 7% (10.5%), United Australia Party 2%. Sample not specified.
Dickson (LNP 1.7%, Queensland): LNP leads 51-49. Primary votes: LNP 41 (44.7% at 2016 election), Labor 35% (35.0%), Greens 10% (9.8%), United Australia Party 9%, One Nation 3%. Sample: 542.
Original post
The Guardian reports Essential Research has concluded its business for the campaign with a poll that reports a 51.5-48.5 lead for Labor, having decided to mark the occasion by reporting its results to the first decimal place. This compares with a rounded result of 52-48 last time. On the primary vote, the Coalition is on 38.5% (up, probably, from 38% last time), Labor is on 36.2% (up from 34%), the Greens are well down to 9.1% from an inflated-looking 12% last time, and One Nation are on 6.6% (down from 7%). Scott Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 42-31 to 39-32. The poll went to the effort to inquire about which campaign stories had registered with voters – I will be very interested to see the full numbers when Essential Research unloads its full report later today, but apparently Labor’s tax plans, the egging of Scott Morrison and the Daily Telegraph’s inspirational profile of Bill Shorten’s late mother all left an impression.
UPDATE: Full report from Essential Research here. It turns out respondents typed up their own responses on election news stories they had noticed and Essential has produced the results in word cloud form, which you can see in the release.
We can also expect national polls from Newspoll and Ipsos over the next day or two – and, starting at 10am this morning, the News Corp papers will today be treating us to an hourly schedule of YouGov Galaxy seat poll releases targeting (deep breath) Flynn at 10am; Macquarie at 11am; La Trobe at noon; Forde at 1pm; Reid at 2pm; Higgins at 3pm; Herbert at 4pm; Gilmore at 5pm; Deakin at 6pm; and Dickson in Queensland at 6pm. Except, it seems, the the Deakin poll is already with us, courtesy of today’s Herald Sun. It credits the Liberals with a lead of 51-49, or a 5.4% swing from the 2016 result. The primary votes are Liberal 44% (50.3% in 2016), Labor 37% (30.1%), Greens 9% (11.3%) and the United Australia Party 4%. The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 540.
Also:
• The Greens were hawking a poll on Monday conducted by Environmental Research and Counsel, an offshoot of Essential Media, suggesting Josh Frydenberg was in serious difficulty in Kooyong. The poll showed Frydenberg’s primary vote at 41%, slumping from 58% in 2016, with Greens candidate Julian Burnside on 21%, Labor’s Jana Stewart on 16%, and much-touted independent Oliver Yates lagging on 9%. However, Frydenberg maintained a two-party lead over the Greens of 52-48. Phillip Coorey in the Financial Review reported on Tuesday that the Liberals were more confident than that, believing Frydenberg’s primary vote to be at around 48%.
• Andrew Tillett in the Financial Review reported on Monday that Labor was becoming “increasingly bullish about picking up seats in Victoria and Western Australia”. Concerning the former, the report relates that Liberal strategists are “split on whether to pour resources into Higgins, where Liberal candidate Katie Allen is narrowly ahead, or concentrate on other Melbourne marginals such as La Trobe, Casey or Deakin”. As David Crowe of noted in the Sydney Morning Herald on Monday, the Coalition’s $4 billion East West Link motorway commitment was “seen by Labor as an attempt to hold the Liberal electorates of Casey, Deakin and La Trobe”, none of which it would be so high on its priorities list if it was feeling confident.
• A slightly different view of the situation in Western Australia is provided by Andrew Burrell of The Australian, who reports Labor has scaled back its ambitions in the state, which once ran to five seats. Swan is said to be Labor’s best chance of a gain, and Labor says its internal polling has Pearce at 50-50, but the Liberals claim to be slightly ahead. But Labor sources sound discouraged about Hasluck, and the party is no longer bothering with Canning. Stirling, however, is said to be “close”. Scott Morrison visited the state on Monday, paying special attention to Swan; Bill Shorten followed the next day, where he campaigned in Pearce.
Also today: Seat du jour, covering the Perth seat of Swan.
lol those primaries are a mess…
Bullshit again fromIpsos
#Ipsos Poll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 39 (+3) ALP 33 (0) GRN 13 (-1) ON 4 (-1) UAP 3 (0) #auspol
Labor should be winning in a landslide.
The reason they and the Greens are not higher in votes is the same reason people here are talking about how the poll results are being presented to boost the LNP as much as possible.
So – taking the excess 3 off Greens and give to ALP and Ipsos makes sense
IPSOS all over the place as usual with a very low ALP and very high Greens primary compared with the other polls. Still, has the good guys in front and that will do me two days out.
“Last weekend, I decided to read some of the final election week posts here in 2010. It was brightly optimistic, with “Steady she goes” posts and when the idea that a hung parliament was even on the cards was floated, it was scoffed at with ridicule. ”
Yes 2010 certainly taught me some valuable lessons. First and foremost, I’m utterly hopeless at predictions when it comes to politics. Having said that, I refused to believe Trump was going to win in 2016. More fool me.
Rocket Rocket @ #1291 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 5:59 pm
Knock Knock!
I have had a number of conversations about who various family members are voting for, but that usually comes down to whether or not Labor is too far right at this election and if the greens are running tree tories or the preferred watermelons. Usually ends with us laughing about how stupid the LNP are.
With friends on the other hand, I only discuss with those I know will be respectful.
Bluey Report: Days of Our Lives
Bluey notes that it is Liberals v Liberals, and Liberals v Nationals in New South Wales. Go you good things! Bluey reckons that the shitfight is about Joyce v McCormack post Saturday.
Bluey watched the Q&A for Morrison’s ding at the Press Conference. Bluey reckons that the session demonstrated that the whole thing was a complete and utter waste of time, except that we learned and/or had confirmed three things:
1. Morrison is hiding why he opted out of the SSM vote. That is to say, his religion IS interfering with his political life. Living a Big Lie.
2. Morrison is hiding from letting alleged massacre murderers into the community.
3. The MSM is truly fucked when it comes to holding the political class to account.
Bluey notes another whole day of candidates surviving. Ms Liu’s sister covered herself in squalid muck by calling the Labor candidate a ‘retard and an idiot’. Ms Liu refused to comment. Classy family!
Bluey has watched the rollout of seat polls and has rather enjoyed observing the water torture aspects of it. Bluey reckons seat polls are not worth a pinch of the proverbial, and reminds Bludgers that they can relax because Labor will form a majority government with 77, 78 or 79 MPs.
Bluey notes that Sarah Hanson-Young has announced that she will introduce something or other. Not to be outdone, Di Natale has announced that the Greens would demand something or other from someone. The voting world was duly set on fire.
Bluey notes that Porter has gone and done the Gingin dunny run, but that Corangamite must be the single most expensive sandbagging exercise in Australian history… $26,000 per voter. Oh… but wait. What about the $50 billion Sub Buy sandbagging of Sturt? Just to make sure everybody knows what a cockup that was, the technical specs were leaked to some mob in India, and now the whole contract has now been accidentally mailed to some South Australian politicians. There is a huge squabble with the french about the nitty gritty and it looks like the promised jobs for South Australia are ephemera. Bluey reckons talk about managing money!
Bluey notes that Di Natale keeps reaching out to Shorten… in order to stab him in the political back. Nice political pal, Di Natale. Bluey looks forward to Di Natale’s day of reckoning after this election. He won’t get it for his role in trying to Kill Bill for six years. He will get it because he has failed Big Tim. Not to worry, Bluey reckons the Green swill give him the old Fair Go.
Bluey reckons this is the best Bludger post for the campaign:
‘Jaeger
For Bluey:
Emily Lakdawalla @elakdawalla
The dinosaurs had a good run and they’re done. Primates lasted shorter. I vote that octopuses get the next chance at running Earth. it’s time invertebrates had another chance. ‘
Bluey notes that the unemployment rate is up.
Bluey notes that Nowra has copped a bit of a pizzling on Bludger. Bluey reminds Bludgers what Nowra is about to do the richly-deserving Mundine! Plus, Bluey went to Nowra once where one of his elegiac poems was read out during the funeral for a truly remarkable man. It was a good funeral.
One of Bluey’s favourite despise objects is KAK. In Bluey’s opinion, there have been several instances where KAK has trailed her racist coat. Butter would not melt in her vile mouth, in Bluey’s opinion.
Bluey notes that Ian McPhee is endorsing Burnside. Those of us with longish memories would remember when the Broad Church had Wets in it.
After Bluey yesterday observing that this has been a humour free election campaign, Charlie Pickering’s The Weekly made a liar out of Bluey. They came up with a cracker of witty satire on the rebranding of Scomo. Superb. Bluey especially liked two items. The first relates to Morrison’s wimmin problem. Jenny was ‘a wimmin’. Scot’s Mum was ‘a wimmin’! Have them at the Launch. Problem solved! The other was the cheering of the ad spivs at ‘The Promise of Australia’ precisely because it meant nothing. Beautiful stuff.
Score for the Day: Labor 1. The Liberals got – 2 because of Morrison’s dismal APC performance, the introduction of alleged mass murderers into the community, and the horrible discord in NSW.
Cumulative Score: Labor 30; Liberals 3.
Anything on Dickson yet?
Bugger it, let’s be optimistic in the face of these polls.
Labor with 85.
Dawson the dark horse for 86.
imacca @ #1270 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 5:53 pm
I spoke to one elderly gent this morning who opened up on politics which he said he usually didn’t do.
He complained that if Labor won he’d lose $10,000 due to the franking credit changes.
I simply said that maybe he shouldn’t be getting that in the first place.
He shrugged.
I said that the little old lady down the road on welfare can’t afford to buy decent food because her allowance is so low due to those sort of handouts.
He just walked off .
LNP+3?
Go home Ipsos. You’re drunk.
There, got that out of the way.
Now how’s Kartoffekop going?
All major national polling has become very unreliable — too much “smoothing” of the internet panel.
Saturday cannot come soon enough!
Who wins the sixth spot in each Senate race?
One thing is fairly sure if Labor wins, the Dogs of War will be turned loose by those on the other side. It has ever been thus………… It will also likely mean the Liberals will swing even further to the right.
Another observation, not an original one, is the the impact of the print press via Murdoch and Stokes – and fellow travellers – no longer has quite the impact it used to have.
The local West almost (almost, I stress) sounded half-way, though sulkily, suggesting Shorten may be able to do the job……………………The Sunday Times, as William mentioned some days ago, squibbed at making their support known in the editorial.
Meanwhile, local talk-back radio (meaning 6PR here in Perth) has been very muted – election-wise, nearly all day.
bug1 @ #111 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 6:23 am
The Hungarian is likely to have a s.44 referral to be worrying about.
jenauthor @ #1304 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 6:03 pm
I’d say 4%.
I would have loved some polls from Wills and Cooper. Fingers crossed for the Greens to pull off 2 big surprises.
The Dickson poll will be interesting. If ALP are 48% or better on TPP, then the seat is a likely gain.
And Shorten and Morrison both with a netstat of -5. That;s one thin gall the polls have picked up in the last week – Shorten’s approval on the up
jenauthor @ #1300 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 6:03 pm
That’s a terrible primary for Labor.
They’re gonna stuff this up !!
So does that mean every single poll for the whole campaign has been 51/49 or 52/48?
Rocket Rocket says:
Thursday, May 16, 2019 at 5:59 pm
1892CFC
I think the Saints were a bit flattered by the scoreline against the Eagles who kicked 1.8 in the last quarter. Hoping for a good game Saturday. I think we’ll go OK but I find it hard to see us beating you guys. But afterwards if I can come home and watch a Labor win on TV it will more than make up fot it!
I have enjoyed watching Darcy Moore this year – I remember hearing murmurs a few years ago about trading him! He is a an excellent ‘swing’ player and gee he looks like his dad when he plays!
HeyRocket Rocket
Excuse my not knowing how to quote properly on this platform
I don’t care if Collingwood loses this weekend as long as the LNP lose as well!
Priorities
(Plus have a few decent mates who follow the Saints)
Cheers
I just cannot believe the Coalition can be this close after the last 6 years. They have done nothing!! They are by far and away the worst government I have seen. I hope these polls are wRONg!!
People seem to be focusing too much on the numbers & missing the clear evidence of a late trend towards the Coalition.
The Coalition’s scare campaign about Labor’s tax plans is clearly having an impact.
It will only take a little bit more movement over the next day for the Coalition to win, either as a minority government or with a razor-thin majority.
I said at the beginning of this campaign that this election is going to be a remarkable psephological study once all is done.
Seems like whatever the result – the polling industry is going to be under serious scrutiny.
Outside of this poll… what else suggests late movement to the Tories?
Ouch to that Ipsos. Let’s hope it’s wrong.
[So does that mean every single poll for the whole campaign has been 51/49 or 52/48?]
Pretty much.
Totally unprecedented.
It means Saturday could well surprise…
Philip Ruddock is giving the Liberal party view on the Drum
Ruddock is saying my friend Bill Shorten and my friend Gough Whitlam.
Madcyril @ #1326 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 6:09 pm
Burn Labor to the ground if they lose.
Rex Douglas @ #1323 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 6:07 pm
Yeah, but look at the LNP. They gained a point off the Greens, and a point off of ON, and another point that they pulled straight out of thin air. And despite that, they only netted a single point improvement on the final TPP count.
They’re hopeless at math, counting, and gaining PV!
@A_E
Correct German would be Kartoffelkopf.
Still no word from Dickson (Qld)?
Also, where’s the 6:00pm seat poll?
Tetsujin:
My own inexpert reading of the situation is that there was an very obvious move to the Coalition in the first few weeks of the campaign, but that things have pretty much stalled since then.
When did the Ipsos before this one come out?
PB – yup. Greatest exhibition of herding in polling history. You’ll tell your grandkids you saw it. Suggests the pollsters have absolutely no confidence in what they are doing
No Dickson yet
Darren Laver @ #1335 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 6:12 pm
They’re doing 10 seat polls on an hourly basis, starting from 10:00am today. That means last poll shouldn’t be out until 7:00pm. I think Dickson is the last poll.
The poll herding during the campaign is pretty much without precedent in Australian federal elections. It makes Saturday night much more interesting frankly, because they are likely wrong — the question is in which direction!
UTS professor gives Hawke and Keating the Apple level of confidence.
Things just worked.
Tetsujin @ #1327 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 6:09 pm
Turn it up,at least a 1/4 of voters have already voted.
Herald Sun says Deakin at 6pm and Dickson at 7pm.
William, is it correct that Essential, IPSOS and Newspoll all now use “internet panels” for their polling and not the tradition telephone polling?
I think I am pleased that we did not have a Tampa moment for the ALP.
The Rwanda moment for the LNP is not so pleasing. Their supporters must be wondering ‘did the ALP engineer this last minute reveal?’
If you add the Ipsos Greens and ALP primaries together it is exactly the same as the Essential poll (46%), so they aren’t really that different in the final wash-up … (just that oddity of Ipsos having the Greens higher than everyone else).
antonbruckner11 @ #1338 Thursday, May 16th, 2019 – 5:43 pm
I’m more in the “they’re only releasing the polls that flatter the LNP” camp. I cannot believe that with Labor in the lead all this time there has not been a single 53 or 54.
Well, with only one major poll to go………….and they are all talking the same talk —-though 13 for Greens takes a bit of swallowing – I think the evidence is sufficient to suggest a that one would prefer these numbers as a Labor voter rather than Liberal. Some here are real Job’s Comforters, always looking on the worst side for Labor, which, in my view, calls into question their credibility when they claim to be friends of Labor.
If that IPSOS is ridgy didge then this is going to the wire. They could get there on those numbers.
Clives scare campaign is working.